Week 8: SeeSawing through the picks

Prepare for a week of seesaw games. Good teams lost bad, and bad teams lost bad, and thus some of these lines may be jacked.

Week 7 Correct Picks: Atlanta, Denver, Carolina, Pittsburgh (Lock 4-2-1), Minnesota, New Orleans,
Week 7 Incorrect Picks: Tennesee, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Oakland, St Louis (Upset 4-3), Baltimore
Week 7 Push: Cleveland

Week 7 Record: 6-6-1
Record Thus Far: 53-44-6

Week 8 Picks
Colts at Titans (Ten by 9): Two teams that were embarassed last week, but only one that can do something about it. I'll take Tennessee.
Saints at Rams (NO by 14): Sean Payton is a classy guy. After going ahead by 40 points, the Saints just ran, no passes. They weren't trying to run up the score. But, I'll stick with New Orleans again.
Dolphins at Giants (NYG by 10): This is a classic "did we learn anything" game. The Giants are favored at home by 10 to a crappy team. Just like Seattle two weeks ago. And I'm no sucker, so I'll take Miami as my upset. Geez...
Vikings at Panthers (Car by 4): I liked Ponder last week, but I think he'll regress a little here and Carolina will win.
Cardinals at Ravens (Bal by 13): Angry hornets. Thats what I imagine the defense of Baltimore will be like this week. I don't imagine that Cardinals will get points, so I will take Baltimore as the lock. As a side note, here's what I wrote about Bal/Jac:
"This feels like a classic Flacco crap game, doesn't it? Don't they always have one or two losses that leave everyone scratching their head and wondering what the heck happened? But even then... I'm not brave enough to pick it, so I'll take Baltimore."
Jaguars at Texans (Hou by 10): Chicken and the egg: was Jacksonville's defense that good, or was Baltimore's offense that bad? I think it was mostly Baltimores offense, and I think Houston will win here, and by 10.
Redskins at Bills (Buf by 6): I'm off the Washington train. Bills!
Lions at Broncos (Lions by 3): For the first time here, I will pick the Lions. I don't think Tebow will do well against the Lions defense.
Patriots at Steelers (Pats by 3): The Patriots always win against the Steelers, but I don't like them here. I think if they win it will be by a little, so I'll take Pittsburgh.
Browns at 49ers (SF by 9): I watched a ton of that Cleveland/Seattle game because I'm a sadist. I think SF wins here, but I'm concerned that this will be a crappy Alex Smith game, so I'm not giving them 9 points.
Bengals at Seahawks (Cin by 3): I'll pick Seattle (shudder). It's a home game, and that's a 5 point swing in favor of Seattle.
Cowboys at Eagles (Phi by 4): Tough game to pick. I think I'll take Philadelphia (home team).
Chargers at Chiefs (SD by 4): There's still a lot of talk about Kansas City winning this game outright and taking a share of the division lead. I don't think so. San Diego is better than they've been trending, and Kansas City isn't as good as they've been trending. I'll take SD.

Fantasy Review
Go Lions: I scored 64 points last week... and won. Going into Monday Night, I was ahead by 6 points with no players left, and my opponent had Ray Rice left. I was ecstatic about the Baltimore loss. Currently, my record is 5-2 which is second in the Barry Sanders division.
Emerald City Eight: Won my last game, for a record of 4-3. I'm in fourth place.
CRISTABall: Lost badly, for a record of 4-2. I'm third in my division, but both people ahead of me have played one more divisional games.

Week 7: The Curse of Bobby Layne gives way to the Curse of....

Bobby Layne once famously cursed Detroit to fifty years without winning a Superbowl. That curse culminated in the 0-16 season exactly 50 years later (and no Superbowls). The Lions are now (theoretically) free of that curse... But I wonder if we aren't suffering from another, unknown curse. The Curse of... Barry Sanders.

What? The Detroit hero? The most famous Lion of all time? One of top three running backs of all time?

Yeah. Him. Since Barry unceremoniously retired after the 98 season, the Lions have had the worst run imaginable of runningbacks. I did a little statistical research (crazy, I know). Here's the summary:

• Since 98 (where Barry finished 4th), the highest a Detroit running back has finished in yards gained is 14th, by James Stewart in 2000.


• Since 98, our leading rusher has been on average the 27th best rusher (26.5 to be exact).

I don't think the blame can be entirely on the offensive line, either. We've had some success in passing - Jon Kitna, for crying out loud - but never anything in the running game. Additionally, we have been drafting so high for a few years that I'm willing to bet that any of the top 10 runningbacks this year went behind our other draft picks. Detroit just doesn't do well with runningbacks any more.

And now we find out that Jahvid Best may be done for the year and we have traded for... Ronnie Brown. He of the goal line fumble a few weeks ago against San Fran.

Somehow I don't expect the curse to break anytime soon. Are we to expect 50 years of futility on the ground?

Week 6 Correct Picks: Bengals, 49ers, Packers, Eagles, Bucs (Upset: 4-2), Jets

Week 6 Incorrect Picks: Panthers, Steelers, Ravens, Patriots, Minnesota

Week 6 Push: Giants, Raiders (Lock: 3-2-1). I count the NYG pick as a moral victory.
Week 6 Record: 6-5-2
Record Thus Far: 47-38-5

Week 7 Picks
Seahawks at Browns (Cle by 3): Never pick the seahawks on the road.
Falcons at Lions (Det by 4): My streak was broken (It's my fault; I forgot to wear my lucky red wings hat), so I'm no longer constrained to picking against Detroit. However, I still have a bad feeling about this matchup and will take Atl.
Texans at Titans (Ten by 3): I believe in Matt Hasselbeck... Uh, what? Eh, he's my quarterback this week in one league (wait til you hear who my other quarterback is!). I think Tennessee handles this and vaults into the front running for the AFC South.
Broncos at Dolphins (Mia by 2): The first Suck-for-Luck game. Tebow isn't going to give up, but Miami is actively going to. I'll take Denver.
Chargers at Jets (SD by 2): At New York, huh. I don't know what to make of these two teams. New York (and Sanchez) have looked horrible. But San Diego and Philips have not been outstanding. I guess I'll take San Diego here.
Bears at Buccaneers (Chi by 1): Um, totally ridiculous line. I like Tampa Here.
Redskins at Panthers (Car by 3): John Beck alert! Time to bench your Santana Moss's (why were you playing him anyway?) and start anyone else. I'll take Carolina even if Cam let me down last week.
Chiefs at Raiders (Oak by 4): I like the Raiders this year. I don't have any idea what Palmer will do for them; but I do know that he's going to give it to McFadden 40 times this game, and that should be good enough to beat the Chiefs by a lot. I would lock this game, but I did that with Oakland last week, so I'll pick a different team.
Steelers at Cardinals (Pit by 4): Ooh, here's a good Lock. Pittsburgh, and do we see a Kevin Kolb benching? I think maybe we do!
Rams at Cowboys (Dal by 13): I don't like Dallas to beat anyone by 13, so I guess St Louis is my Upset. Wait, what? They're an NFC west team... But I'm going to stick with it.
Packers at Vikings (GB by 9): It's at Minnesota and I think it will be close. I'll take Minnesota.
Colts at Saints (NO by 14): The other Suck-For-Luck team is Indy. I think Indy will be better at hiding it than Miami (to avoid the inevitable crapstorm that will brew), but I still think they get blown out here by an angry New Orleans team.
Ravens at Jaguars (Bal by 8): This feels like a classic Flacco crap game, doesn't it? Don't they always have one or two losses that leave everyone scratching their head and wondering what the heck happened? But even then... I'm not brave enough to pick it, so I'll take Baltimore.

Fantasy Review
Went 2-0 this past weekend. The big news of the week? Eli Manning is on a bye for my CRISTABall league, so I went to the waiver wire.

And yes. I picked him up.

Go Tim Tebow.

Week 6: Some Rules Emerge

I've discovered a few things this year, and have developed a new rule system for how to pick games against the spread. Here's the new set of rules (listed in descending order of importance (so the last rule trumps rules before it)).

4. Cam Newton covers spreads.

3. Don't back the NFC West on the road.

2. If you think the Giants should do well, pick the other team. If they should do poorly, pick the Giants.

1. Continue to pick against the Lions until they lose (don't break the streak).

Week 5 Correct Picks: Kansas City (Upset 3-2), Minnesota (Lock 3-2), Carolina, Oakland, San Francisco, San Diego, Green Bay
Week 5 Incorrect Picks: Philadelphia, Seattle, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Chicago
Week 5 Push: New England
Week 5 Record: 7-5-1
Year Thus Far: 41-33-3

Week 6 Picks:
Panthers at Falcons (ATL by 4): See above and take Carolina.
Colts at Bengals (CIN by 7): Cincinnati has a really good defense, who should cover this spread themselves.
49ers at Lions (Det by 5): See Rule 1 above. I pick San Fran.
St Louis at Green Bay (GB by 16): A few things warring in me here: don't back crappy nfc west teams on the road... but sixteen points is a lot. Green Bay only blew out one team this year, Denver. Is St Louis worse than Denver...? Yes. Green Bay then.
Bills at Giants (NYG by 3): It seems like the Bills are the better team, so I'll take New York.
Jaguars at Steelers (PIT by 13): A really good defense will always super trump an inept offense. Pittsburgh.
Eagles at Redskins (PHI by 2): You know once I stop picking the Eagles or when I sit Vick in fantasy they'll explode for a game they're due for. The Eagles are definitely last years Cowboys; I don't think they have any respect for Reid left. But I'll give them one more try, and take them here. If they don't pull it off here, I'm off the Eagles Train completely.
Browns at Raiders (OAK by 7): Oakland would be the ultimate flip-flop team if not for NYG. But I rather like this matchup, and McFadden should be due for another monster. I'll take the Raiders as my Lock.
Texans at Ravens (BAL by 8): Injuries mounting for the Texans. Sidenote: only in sports can you use the phrase "mounting" and it's not inappropriate. Unless we are talking about Roethlisberger. I like Baltimore in this game, but I don't like them by 8 points.
Cowboys at Patriots (NE by 7): I love it when the Ryan brothers open their mouth and get proved wrong like the idiots they are. Latest example is that the Dallas defense will be bringing the "kitchen sink" to stop Brady. Uh, no. I'll bet that doesn't work and Dallas gets blown out.
Saints at Bucs (NO by 4): Since I like the Bucs to rebound and keep this one close, they are my Upset.
Vikings at Bears (CHI by 3): Intrigueing battle of has-beens in the NFC North. McNabb versus Cutler... It's Sunday Night Football on NBC! I'll take Minnesota.
Dolphins at Jets (NYJ by 7): This is an interesting upset pick. But how far can you ride the Jets downfall? They should win here by a lot, but Miami does weird things in games sometimes.

Fantasy Review:
CRISTABall - I am a wrecking ball in this league, and now I get Aaron Hernandez back! (Bye Tony Scheffler). I won 140-30 this week, and am on a bye this week. This has to be the weirdest scoring fantasy league I've ever been in; Eli Manning had 52 points this week. Also, byes in fantasy? Weird.
Go Lions - Hope is fading quickly. Too many disappointments (Vick, Jackson) to outweigh the brightspots (McFadden, Gonzalez). I lost pretty badly to Dave last week, and half of my team is apparently on a bye this week. We'll see if I can waiver up some replacements.
Emerald City Eight - What an exhilariting ride this league has been... But I'm probably done for here. I lost this week, in the most maddening way... I had two remaining players (Stafford and the Lions D/ST). Stafford gets me just enough points to be two points ahead of the team I'm playing (122-120 at this point), and then the Lions stop throwing all together and go to Jahvid Best to grind out the clock. If Stafford gets 10 more yards, I get a point and probably win. Instead... they punt, and Chicago racks up 90 garbage yards (or however long that last drive was) and I lost 119-120. Unbelievable.

But hey, the Lions still win, so there!

Week 5: The NFL punishes fans because?

Last week, I got super excited. As I was watching the Seattle game, they advertised that Detroit-Dallas was the game of the week in the early slot on Fox. Seattle was playing in the late slot. I assumed this meant that I would finally get to see the Lions! I caught 45 seconds of the end of the Minnesota game (3 downs: false start by Backus, false start by Backus, sack allowed by Backus), but other than that I've been living on highlights.

Imagine my confusion then when Fox turns off football and goes to infomercials. That's right. Instead of the game of the week, I would have to watch infomercials.

There are some seriously archaic rules when it comes to broadcasting NFL games - for example, when the Seahawks are playing at home, other channels can't play other games during the same time frame! Apparently you are only allowed to support the home team.

Does the NFL realize that all this does is drive people to watch illegally? I found a live stream of the Lions game and watched that, crappy stream and all. If Roger Goodell can explain this in a way that tells me why it's important to the game that I can't watch Detroit, please do so.


Week 4 Correct Picks: Carolina, Tennessee (Upset 2-2), New Orleans, New York Giants, New England (Lock 2-2), San Diego, Tampa Bay
Week 4 Incorrect Picks: Buffalo, Dallas, Minnesota, St Louis, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Denver, New York Jets,
Week 4: 7-9
Year thus Far: 34-28-2

Week 5 Games:
Eagles at Bills (Phi by 3): Weird line, based on the records. Vegas is still just a little too in love with Philly. Still... I like Philly to turn things around a bit here and steal this one in Buffalo.
Chiefs at Colts (Ind by 3): Another strange line. We're saying these two teams are basically even, huh? I don't know. I like the Chiefs as my upset.
Cardinals at Vikings (Min by 3): If Min is going to win one, has to be here, right? Plus, don't take NFC west teams on the road. I'll even dare destiny and take an 0-4 team as my lock.
Seahawks at Giants (NYG by 10): Don't take NFC west teams on the road. Just don't.
Titans at Steelers (Pit by 4): Thursday Update: Forgot to write anything about this game. Maybe because I don't like the idea of picking either team. Anyway, I like Tennesee.
Saints at Panthers (NO by 7): You can throw on New Orleans, and Cam Newton can cover a spread. I'll take Carolina.
Bengals at Jaguars (Jac by 2): Gross game. I'll take the home team, but I don't feel good about it.
Oakland at Houston (Hou by 6): I don't know that Houston will have as much success running on Oakland as they did Pittsburgh. But I think McFadden will have some decent success. So I like Oakland.
Buccanneers at 49ers (SF by 2): I want to talk myself into not liking San Francisco... But I think the smart money here is on SF. Tampa Bay coming across the country on a short week spells trouble.
Chargers at Broncos (SD by 4): It's like Philip Rivers is messing with me. The spread was 9 last week, and they won by 10. Barely. I think we'll finally see a San Diego blowout.
Jets at Patriots (NE by 9): Dear lord, I'm taking the Jets. Gulp. I think they are a little better than they played the last two weeks, and they always play New England hard. I think it will be a close one though.
Packers at Falcons (GB by 6): I can't for the life of me pick a team that should have lost to Seattle. Atlanta made a old-time-lions mistake at the end which would have been the talk of the league had they lost (well, after the Dallas talk anyway). It was a 3rd and medium just after the two minute warning. Seattle had one timeout left and was down by 2. If Atlanta just rushes here, they guarantee that Seattle has to use their timeout - regardless of whether Atlanta gets the first down. Instead, they threw it, incomplete, and Seattle got the ball back with plenty of time and a timeout remaining. If Tarvaris Jackson wasn't so inept, ATL would have lost because of that play. And thus, I pick the Packers.
Bears at Lions (Det by 6): I actually don't think I would pick the Lions this week even if I hadn't sworn to keep picking against them (as a reverse-jinx). I think there will be a lot of pressure for playing on Monday night; and I think it will be close. So I'll take Chicago hear, but only because I think Detroit will only win by 3. 27-24 final score. Oh, and for the love of God, don't kick it to Hester.

Fantasy Review:
Bleh. Went 1-2 this week; Henderson threw goose eggs in two leagues for me - the same two leagues I ended up playing against Forte. I did win in the Go Lions League to stay even with the top of my division. Have a big division showdown against Dave this week.

NFL Update:

Go to this webpage.

Here are the unanimous picks:

Chicago over Carolina

Philadelphia over San Fran

New Orleans over Jacksonville

Atlanta over Seattle

Green Bay over Denver

San Diego over Miami

Baltimore over New York

Houston over Pittsburgh

Tampa Bay over Indianapolis

Nine games the experts all picked the same. The experts seem to be picking about 2/3rds of games correct, so we can probably imagine 3 of these picks will be wrong. What scares me is I only disagree in one place - Pitt over Houston is my pick. New York over Baltimore is probably the other best bet, but I still like Baltimore. So what other two teams would you pick to be upset?