Week 12 quick picks

Thanksgiving blah busy blah here are the picks blah blah oh god the quick picks:

I took Detroit, Dallas, Baltimore. 1-2 so far.

Falcons +10

Bengals +7

Ten +3

Indy -4

Rams +3

Bills -10 (upset)

Texans +7 (lock)

Raiders +3

Seahawks +3

Eagles -4

Broncos -6

Chiefs -11

Week 11: Congratulations

Major congratulations to my good friend Dave, with the birth of his daughter Emaline this last week. Not that Dave birthed Emaline (as far as I know, that was Allison). Readers may know that I recently beat Dave soundly in fantasy football (121.12-121.06), so I'm glad he's able to have some sun in his life.

Week 10 Correct Picks: New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Dallas, Tennessee, Seattle, Chicago (I intended to pick them but did not write it, and I'm taking the credit), Patriots,
Week 10 Incorrect Picks: San Diego, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Washington, New York Giants (Lock 4-5-1), Philadephia, Buccaneers (Upset 5-5), Vikings

Week 10 Record: 7-9
Record Thus Far: 69-70-7 (Ah, below .500!)

Week 11 Picks
Jets at Broncos (NYJ by 7): It's either NY by 30, or Denver by 1. So I'm unsure. I had to pick up Sanchez and Burress in one league, so I'm gonna imagine it's NYJ by 30.
Jaguars at Browns (Jac by 1): Can Cleveland score touchdowns? I'm not sure. I like Jacksonville here, as I don't think Cleveland will get over 6 points.
Panthers at Lions (Det by 7): I'm pretty sure that Detroit will blow out the Panthers this week to set up the game against Green Bay on Thanksgiving. And I'm pretty sure the league will make sure that the narrative for Thanksgiving is the 7-3 Lions versus the 10-0 Packers rather than the Packers Versus the Lions-who-have-lost-4-of-their-last-5.
Buccanneers at Packers (GB by 14): Jeez, is GB gonna get double digit points every week? I have to take them here too.
Bills at Dolphins (Mia by 1): I like Buffalo. Everyones a little too quick on the Miami bandwagon.
Raiders at Vikings (Oak by 1): I have no idea. I guess I'll pick Oakland.
Cowboys at Redskins (Dal by 8): I tried to talk myself into Washington here, but I'm gonna pick Dallas. There's a more sane upset pick later in the round.
Bengals at Ravens (Bal by 8): Ravens. They play good against good teams.
Seahawks at Rams (STL by 2): Don't pick NFC West teams on the road! St Louis. Lock!
Cardinals at 49ers (SF by 10): I don't like SF by 10 over anyone - they just don't blow teams out. I'll take Arizona as an upset - only because I think the final game will be deceptively close.
Titans at Falcons (Atl by 7): Titans could sneak back into the AFC South if Leinart blows up Houston. I think I'll take Ten here, at least to keep it close.
Chargers at Bears (Chi by 4): If I rewrote my bias rankings, I would absolutely rank Chicago 32. (Edit: I did already). I hate them. And to see everyone jump on their bandwagon as the third best team in the NFC - it's ridiculous. Let's compare the wins/losses for Detroit/Chicago. They split their series, so Chicago has losses to New Orleans and Green Bay. Detroit has losses to San Francisco and Atlanta. These teams are even - even down to the brittle quarterback under a lost of criticism. Chicago runs, Detroit throws. The bottom line? Screw Chicago. I'll take San Diego.
Eagles at Giants (NYG by 4): I can't really pick against New York, and I can't pick Philadelphia anymore.
Chiefs at Patriots (NE by 15): New England. Don't be silly.

Week 10: The Carnage of the Quick Picks

Note to self: never make quick picks again. I went a stunning 3-11 this week, the highlight of which was missing on each and every early game. Clearly I need to actually put thought into the picks.

Week 9 Correct Picks: Denver, Giants, Baltimore,
Week 9 Incorrect Picks: Bills, Cowboys, Colts (Upset 5-4), Chiefs, Bucs, Redskins, Cleveland, Titans, Rams, Chargers, Eagles

Week 9 Record: 3-11
Overall: 62-61-7

Week 10 Picks
Raiders at Chargers (SD by 7): No McFadden, and the Chargers finally started to look like a good team last week. It was like they clicked into gear or something. I'll take San Diego here.
Saints at Falcons (NO by 1): I wrote off Atlanta earlier this year, and I'm not quite ready to pencil them back into being real yet. So I'll take NO.
Steelers at Bengals (Pit by 3): Hard to know what to make of the Bengals. Ultimately, I think they are a schedule fraud, and I'll take Pittsburgh.
Rams at Browns (Cle by 3): I desperately want to pick against Cleveland, but the safe money is to not bet on NFC west teams that don't rhyme with "Fan Trancisco." So I'll pick Cleveland...
Bills at Cowboys (Dal by 6): I like Dallas to bounce back here and shut down Fred Jackson, so I'll take Dallas.
Jaguars at Colts (Jac by 3): Indy has some breathing room in the Luck sweepstakes now; so all they have to do is not screw up and win here. I do predict a close game though, so I'll pick Indy.
Broncos at Chiefs (KC by 4): Weird game. Not sure what to think. Will take KC; Arrowhead should rattle Tebow much like Ford Field did.
Redskins at Dolphins (Mia by 4): Unsure of either of these teams. So in that case, I'll guess Washington keeps it close?
Cardinals at Eagles (No line): No line (Kolb?), but I'll take Philly.
Texans at Bucs (Hou by 4): I'm so uneasy about supporting Houston. They're a good team with deep flaws that will crumble when they meet any of the AFC powerhouses in the playoffs. I'm gonna take the Bucs as my Upset.
Titans at Panthers (Car by 4): I like CJ to finally get out of his funk here, and for Ten to win.
Ravens at Seahawks (Bal by 7): Quest stadium trap game. I'll take the Seahawks.
Lions at Bears (Chi by 3):
Giants at 49ers (SF by 3): If the NYG win this game, they get to be Number 2 in everyone's power rankings, right? I think the Giants will finally unnerve Alex Smith, and I'll Lock it in.
Patriots at Jets (NYJ by 1): Great game, great rivalry. Strangely, Rex Ryan has been silent(!) this week. I'll be taking the Patriots, as I'm not ready to believe Belichick and Brady will lose 3 straight grudge matches.
Vikings at Packers (GB by 14): Can't pick against GB, but 14 points is awfully high... And haven't the Vikes been playing well? Aw, I'll take the Vikes.

Fantasy Review
I can retire happy in Fantasy Football now. No, I haven't won a league yet. But I did beat my good friend who knows way more about football than me... Dave Morgan. Final Score? 121.12 to 121.06. I beat Dave by 6/10ths of a yard. Stunning.

Week 9: Quick Picks

Week 8 Correct Picks: Titans, Miami (Upset 5-3), Buffalo, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Philly,
Week 8 Correct Picks: New Orleans, Minnesota, Ravens (Lock 4-4-1), San Francisco, Cincinnati, Chiefs
Week 8 Push: Houston

Week 8 Review: 6-6-1
Year Thus Far: 59-50-7

Week 9 Picks:
Bills +2
Dallas +12
Colts -8 (Upset)
Chiefs +5
Bucs -9
Washington -4
Cleveland -11
Titans +3
Denver -9
Giants -9
Rams -2
Chargers -6
Bal -4
Eagles +8

I may have my plusses and minuses mixed up, but those are my picks.

Fantasy:
Still doing well, but I have another big divisional game against Dave this week, and I just traded my mvp - McFadden. Picked up Mendenhall and a good backup QB in Matt Schaub.

Week 8: SeeSawing through the picks

Prepare for a week of seesaw games. Good teams lost bad, and bad teams lost bad, and thus some of these lines may be jacked.

Week 7 Correct Picks: Atlanta, Denver, Carolina, Pittsburgh (Lock 4-2-1), Minnesota, New Orleans,
Week 7 Incorrect Picks: Tennesee, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Oakland, St Louis (Upset 4-3), Baltimore
Week 7 Push: Cleveland

Week 7 Record: 6-6-1
Record Thus Far: 53-44-6

Week 8 Picks
Colts at Titans (Ten by 9): Two teams that were embarassed last week, but only one that can do something about it. I'll take Tennessee.
Saints at Rams (NO by 14): Sean Payton is a classy guy. After going ahead by 40 points, the Saints just ran, no passes. They weren't trying to run up the score. But, I'll stick with New Orleans again.
Dolphins at Giants (NYG by 10): This is a classic "did we learn anything" game. The Giants are favored at home by 10 to a crappy team. Just like Seattle two weeks ago. And I'm no sucker, so I'll take Miami as my upset. Geez...
Vikings at Panthers (Car by 4): I liked Ponder last week, but I think he'll regress a little here and Carolina will win.
Cardinals at Ravens (Bal by 13): Angry hornets. Thats what I imagine the defense of Baltimore will be like this week. I don't imagine that Cardinals will get points, so I will take Baltimore as the lock. As a side note, here's what I wrote about Bal/Jac:
"This feels like a classic Flacco crap game, doesn't it? Don't they always have one or two losses that leave everyone scratching their head and wondering what the heck happened? But even then... I'm not brave enough to pick it, so I'll take Baltimore."
Jaguars at Texans (Hou by 10): Chicken and the egg: was Jacksonville's defense that good, or was Baltimore's offense that bad? I think it was mostly Baltimores offense, and I think Houston will win here, and by 10.
Redskins at Bills (Buf by 6): I'm off the Washington train. Bills!
Lions at Broncos (Lions by 3): For the first time here, I will pick the Lions. I don't think Tebow will do well against the Lions defense.
Patriots at Steelers (Pats by 3): The Patriots always win against the Steelers, but I don't like them here. I think if they win it will be by a little, so I'll take Pittsburgh.
Browns at 49ers (SF by 9): I watched a ton of that Cleveland/Seattle game because I'm a sadist. I think SF wins here, but I'm concerned that this will be a crappy Alex Smith game, so I'm not giving them 9 points.
Bengals at Seahawks (Cin by 3): I'll pick Seattle (shudder). It's a home game, and that's a 5 point swing in favor of Seattle.
Cowboys at Eagles (Phi by 4): Tough game to pick. I think I'll take Philadelphia (home team).
Chargers at Chiefs (SD by 4): There's still a lot of talk about Kansas City winning this game outright and taking a share of the division lead. I don't think so. San Diego is better than they've been trending, and Kansas City isn't as good as they've been trending. I'll take SD.

Fantasy Review
Go Lions: I scored 64 points last week... and won. Going into Monday Night, I was ahead by 6 points with no players left, and my opponent had Ray Rice left. I was ecstatic about the Baltimore loss. Currently, my record is 5-2 which is second in the Barry Sanders division.
Emerald City Eight: Won my last game, for a record of 4-3. I'm in fourth place.
CRISTABall: Lost badly, for a record of 4-2. I'm third in my division, but both people ahead of me have played one more divisional games.

Week 7: The Curse of Bobby Layne gives way to the Curse of....

Bobby Layne once famously cursed Detroit to fifty years without winning a Superbowl. That curse culminated in the 0-16 season exactly 50 years later (and no Superbowls). The Lions are now (theoretically) free of that curse... But I wonder if we aren't suffering from another, unknown curse. The Curse of... Barry Sanders.

What? The Detroit hero? The most famous Lion of all time? One of top three running backs of all time?

Yeah. Him. Since Barry unceremoniously retired after the 98 season, the Lions have had the worst run imaginable of runningbacks. I did a little statistical research (crazy, I know). Here's the summary:

• Since 98 (where Barry finished 4th), the highest a Detroit running back has finished in yards gained is 14th, by James Stewart in 2000.


• Since 98, our leading rusher has been on average the 27th best rusher (26.5 to be exact).

I don't think the blame can be entirely on the offensive line, either. We've had some success in passing - Jon Kitna, for crying out loud - but never anything in the running game. Additionally, we have been drafting so high for a few years that I'm willing to bet that any of the top 10 runningbacks this year went behind our other draft picks. Detroit just doesn't do well with runningbacks any more.

And now we find out that Jahvid Best may be done for the year and we have traded for... Ronnie Brown. He of the goal line fumble a few weeks ago against San Fran.

Somehow I don't expect the curse to break anytime soon. Are we to expect 50 years of futility on the ground?

Week 6 Correct Picks: Bengals, 49ers, Packers, Eagles, Bucs (Upset: 4-2), Jets

Week 6 Incorrect Picks: Panthers, Steelers, Ravens, Patriots, Minnesota

Week 6 Push: Giants, Raiders (Lock: 3-2-1). I count the NYG pick as a moral victory.
Week 6 Record: 6-5-2
Record Thus Far: 47-38-5

Week 7 Picks
Seahawks at Browns (Cle by 3): Never pick the seahawks on the road.
Falcons at Lions (Det by 4): My streak was broken (It's my fault; I forgot to wear my lucky red wings hat), so I'm no longer constrained to picking against Detroit. However, I still have a bad feeling about this matchup and will take Atl.
Texans at Titans (Ten by 3): I believe in Matt Hasselbeck... Uh, what? Eh, he's my quarterback this week in one league (wait til you hear who my other quarterback is!). I think Tennessee handles this and vaults into the front running for the AFC South.
Broncos at Dolphins (Mia by 2): The first Suck-for-Luck game. Tebow isn't going to give up, but Miami is actively going to. I'll take Denver.
Chargers at Jets (SD by 2): At New York, huh. I don't know what to make of these two teams. New York (and Sanchez) have looked horrible. But San Diego and Philips have not been outstanding. I guess I'll take San Diego here.
Bears at Buccaneers (Chi by 1): Um, totally ridiculous line. I like Tampa Here.
Redskins at Panthers (Car by 3): John Beck alert! Time to bench your Santana Moss's (why were you playing him anyway?) and start anyone else. I'll take Carolina even if Cam let me down last week.
Chiefs at Raiders (Oak by 4): I like the Raiders this year. I don't have any idea what Palmer will do for them; but I do know that he's going to give it to McFadden 40 times this game, and that should be good enough to beat the Chiefs by a lot. I would lock this game, but I did that with Oakland last week, so I'll pick a different team.
Steelers at Cardinals (Pit by 4): Ooh, here's a good Lock. Pittsburgh, and do we see a Kevin Kolb benching? I think maybe we do!
Rams at Cowboys (Dal by 13): I don't like Dallas to beat anyone by 13, so I guess St Louis is my Upset. Wait, what? They're an NFC west team... But I'm going to stick with it.
Packers at Vikings (GB by 9): It's at Minnesota and I think it will be close. I'll take Minnesota.
Colts at Saints (NO by 14): The other Suck-For-Luck team is Indy. I think Indy will be better at hiding it than Miami (to avoid the inevitable crapstorm that will brew), but I still think they get blown out here by an angry New Orleans team.
Ravens at Jaguars (Bal by 8): This feels like a classic Flacco crap game, doesn't it? Don't they always have one or two losses that leave everyone scratching their head and wondering what the heck happened? But even then... I'm not brave enough to pick it, so I'll take Baltimore.

Fantasy Review
Went 2-0 this past weekend. The big news of the week? Eli Manning is on a bye for my CRISTABall league, so I went to the waiver wire.

And yes. I picked him up.

Go Tim Tebow.

Week 6: Some Rules Emerge

I've discovered a few things this year, and have developed a new rule system for how to pick games against the spread. Here's the new set of rules (listed in descending order of importance (so the last rule trumps rules before it)).

4. Cam Newton covers spreads.

3. Don't back the NFC West on the road.

2. If you think the Giants should do well, pick the other team. If they should do poorly, pick the Giants.

1. Continue to pick against the Lions until they lose (don't break the streak).

Week 5 Correct Picks: Kansas City (Upset 3-2), Minnesota (Lock 3-2), Carolina, Oakland, San Francisco, San Diego, Green Bay
Week 5 Incorrect Picks: Philadelphia, Seattle, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Chicago
Week 5 Push: New England
Week 5 Record: 7-5-1
Year Thus Far: 41-33-3

Week 6 Picks:
Panthers at Falcons (ATL by 4): See above and take Carolina.
Colts at Bengals (CIN by 7): Cincinnati has a really good defense, who should cover this spread themselves.
49ers at Lions (Det by 5): See Rule 1 above. I pick San Fran.
St Louis at Green Bay (GB by 16): A few things warring in me here: don't back crappy nfc west teams on the road... but sixteen points is a lot. Green Bay only blew out one team this year, Denver. Is St Louis worse than Denver...? Yes. Green Bay then.
Bills at Giants (NYG by 3): It seems like the Bills are the better team, so I'll take New York.
Jaguars at Steelers (PIT by 13): A really good defense will always super trump an inept offense. Pittsburgh.
Eagles at Redskins (PHI by 2): You know once I stop picking the Eagles or when I sit Vick in fantasy they'll explode for a game they're due for. The Eagles are definitely last years Cowboys; I don't think they have any respect for Reid left. But I'll give them one more try, and take them here. If they don't pull it off here, I'm off the Eagles Train completely.
Browns at Raiders (OAK by 7): Oakland would be the ultimate flip-flop team if not for NYG. But I rather like this matchup, and McFadden should be due for another monster. I'll take the Raiders as my Lock.
Texans at Ravens (BAL by 8): Injuries mounting for the Texans. Sidenote: only in sports can you use the phrase "mounting" and it's not inappropriate. Unless we are talking about Roethlisberger. I like Baltimore in this game, but I don't like them by 8 points.
Cowboys at Patriots (NE by 7): I love it when the Ryan brothers open their mouth and get proved wrong like the idiots they are. Latest example is that the Dallas defense will be bringing the "kitchen sink" to stop Brady. Uh, no. I'll bet that doesn't work and Dallas gets blown out.
Saints at Bucs (NO by 4): Since I like the Bucs to rebound and keep this one close, they are my Upset.
Vikings at Bears (CHI by 3): Intrigueing battle of has-beens in the NFC North. McNabb versus Cutler... It's Sunday Night Football on NBC! I'll take Minnesota.
Dolphins at Jets (NYJ by 7): This is an interesting upset pick. But how far can you ride the Jets downfall? They should win here by a lot, but Miami does weird things in games sometimes.

Fantasy Review:
CRISTABall - I am a wrecking ball in this league, and now I get Aaron Hernandez back! (Bye Tony Scheffler). I won 140-30 this week, and am on a bye this week. This has to be the weirdest scoring fantasy league I've ever been in; Eli Manning had 52 points this week. Also, byes in fantasy? Weird.
Go Lions - Hope is fading quickly. Too many disappointments (Vick, Jackson) to outweigh the brightspots (McFadden, Gonzalez). I lost pretty badly to Dave last week, and half of my team is apparently on a bye this week. We'll see if I can waiver up some replacements.
Emerald City Eight - What an exhilariting ride this league has been... But I'm probably done for here. I lost this week, in the most maddening way... I had two remaining players (Stafford and the Lions D/ST). Stafford gets me just enough points to be two points ahead of the team I'm playing (122-120 at this point), and then the Lions stop throwing all together and go to Jahvid Best to grind out the clock. If Stafford gets 10 more yards, I get a point and probably win. Instead... they punt, and Chicago racks up 90 garbage yards (or however long that last drive was) and I lost 119-120. Unbelievable.

But hey, the Lions still win, so there!