NFL Championship Weekend

Straight up 4-4 throughout. I missed on what team would lay an egg (although Baltimore came close anyway).

Important thing to remember here: Destiny doesn't exist. The two matchups that the media is dreaming about (Super Bowl 07 rematch; Harbowl) aren't going to happen. This isn't a sports movie that will line up at the last second.

So, seconds before the first game:

I like New England (but not by 9) and I like San Fran (over three).

NFL Divisional Weekend

2-2 Last Week. Lions should have no shame in getting blown out by the Saints.

On to this week...

One home team is blowing it. Let's be honest. That's whats happening. The obvious (and therefore not happening) choices are San Fran and Green Bay. I think San Fran may still lose, but the narrative won't be "sluggish and hurt by the bye." The choice for that narrative will be between Baltimore or New England, which both have a recent history of not showing up at times in the postseason. We'll figure it out shortly!

Saints at 49ers (NO by 4): Overhype alert: New Orleans. No respect for a team that won the bye. I'll take the 49ers. I think if you can rattle Drew Brees in the first half and play good defense in the second half (the Lions were halfway there), you have a good shot. San Fran will slow down the game, and that will frustrate Brees. I like San Fran to win here.

Broncos at Patriots (NE by 14): New England does have our potential blown potential narrative, and when we combine that with possibility of the "miraculous Tim Tebow comeback that in retrospect shouldn't be credited to Tim Tebow but rather to some dumb luck and mistakes by the other team" narrative, we could have a compelling story. However, I just don't see that. It's too obvious. Whenever something is obvious, swing the other way. I like the Patriots here by a mile.

Texans at Ravens (Bal by 9): Here it is. Our sleepy bye team, combined with the team that no one is really giving a shot to win. If you look at all the games, the Texans are probably the eight most popular pick. People are making legitimate cases on both sides of the San Fran/New Orleans and Green Bay / New York games. New England is favored, and Tim Tebow has Tebow magic, so they're probably closer to fifty fifty picks. But really noone is picking the Texans. And so I will. Second games between teams are generally closer, so that's my justification if I need one.

Finally, New York at Green Bay (GB by 9). It's a little too obvious for New York to pull an upset here, and so I will swing for Green Bay to win handily.

A Weird Note I Just Noticed: 5/8 of the teams have two word place names (Green Bay, New York, etc). That's 62.5%. Only 10 of the 32 teams have two word place names (31.2%). I don't know what that means, but it's interesting. Or perhaps just dumb. The only game that pits the two against each other is New England/Denver.

NFL: Wildcard Weekend

I rested my starters the last two weeks. Sorry. That's life.

Anyway, let's look at the playoff matchups.

My playoff picking rules:

1. Momentum Matters.
2. One team is overhyped, one team is underhyped.
3. When in doubt, take the home team. But pick at least one road team.
4. Destiny Exists.
5. One team is kryptonite.

These have served me well the last two years, as I have gone 0-8 in the wildcard round. I'm feeling it this year though, so let's get to the picks.

The Coin Flip Games:

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (Hou by 3)
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (NYG by 3)

A 50/50 bet either way. I wouldn't put money on these games. None of the teams qualify for overhype/underhype; the two teams with positive momentum are playing each other; the two teams with negative momentum are playing each other; and it's too early to identify a kryptonite.

I listened to Aaron Schatz the other day and he said that Atlanta is the most consistent team in the league - you know what you're getting. But New York must be the most inconsistent team (well, maybe the most inconsistent team not named Baltimore). So either good New York (smoked Dallas last week) or bad New York (lost to Washington the week before) shows up. I don't think Atlanta hangs, and I think we see good New York here. I like the Giants +3.

As far as Cincy/Houston, it's a game of two rookie quarterbacks. Anything could happen. And so we refer to rule 3 - when in doubt, take the home team. Houston +3.


The Predicted Blowouts

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (NO by 11)

I'm jumping all over this one and taking Detroit to cover the spread and win the game outright. Fanboy, who cares. Here are the relevant facts:

• Detroit outgained New Orleans four weeks ago, not accounting for penalty yards.


• Detroit was missing three or four key defensive players four weeks ago, and still held New Orleans to it's lowest home point total.


• Matt Stafford was at the very end of his funk four weeks ago, and is now playing out of his mind.


• New Orleans is definitely the most overhyped team coming into round 1. Remember when they blew that stinker to St Louis? This is not the second coming of Touchdown Jesus.

I'm taking Detroit. I'm so confident that I emailed Bill Simmons and told him he was messing with a "Nobody believes in us" team because he was podcasting about whether the weather in San Francisco would mess with New Orleans.

And yes, I may have just doomed my team.

Steelers at Broncos (PIT by 9)

I'm flip flopping on this game. I already have one road team winning, so I don't need to take Pittsburgh. Ultimately, I'm going to take Pittsburgh, unfortunately, and here's why - I can't possibly go 0-4 3 years in a row. But now, if I do, I will have missed on two coin flip games (shrug), on my home team winning, and on Tebow. That' seems defensible for next year.

Go Lions!

Game 7!

I return for a brief look at and thought about Game 7's.

Tonight features a Game 7 between the Boston Bruins and the Vancouver Canucks. Winners get their names engraved on Lord Stanley's Cup.

Who I will be rooting for? The underdog Boston Bruins. Vancouver has come across too much like thugs in this series - biting fingers, giving concussions, offering advice, getting their goalie pulled. Boston has been exemplary - the best example being Tim Thomas, a hard working guy from Flint MI who has refused to play the media game and make fun of Luongo (despite Luongo most assuredly deserving it).

I remember three of Detroits recent Game 7's. I was too young for the Game 7 in 1997 with Stevie Y's overtime goal against St Louis. The first Game 7 I remember watching in nervous anticipation was 2002 when Detroit faced their hated rivals - the Colorado Avalanche. It was a nervewracking experience. Detroit had played a perfect game 6, and still only won because of two mistakes by Patrick Roy, a goaltender who didn't make mistakes. I remember thinking how it would go down to the last second, and it would be nervewracking.

We won 7-0, and the game was never in doubt. We chased (Patricia) Roy and started singing "Sweet Caroline" as we started mentally playing the Hurricanes. I smiled for days. Even now, I put in the DVD of that game if I want to have a little mental pick-me-up. Nothing compares to winning a Game 7.

I remember watching two other game 7's. 2009, when Detroit lost 2-0 to Pittsburgh, and 2011, when Detroit lost 3-2. Those were sucker punch games, where everything you fear comes to hit you in the face. 2009 was particularly devastating, as we lost the Stanley Cup to snot-nosed Cindy Crosby. I called in sick to work the next day and don't remember having a single conversation with my then fiance for three days.

My point is this - Game 7 will make or break you. Boston or Vancouver fans, enjoy this moment of reprieve. Because in 6 or 7 hours, the game of nerves will start. Whoever blinks first will lose. The game will stay with you, win or loss.

(p.s. I bet ten bucks Vancouver riots, win or loss).

Madcap NHL Conference Semifinal Picks

I went 6-2 in the first round, and came within two goals of 8-0. But hey, Pittsburgh is out! Whoo! Although we'll have to listen to them whine about how far they would have gone with Cindy...

Anyway, on to the conference semifinal picks:

Eastern Conference:

Washington versus Tampa Bay - TB should be exhausted. Washington is rested and good, and should manhandle the Lightning in 5.

Philadelphia versus Boston - Another rough series. I see this going seven, and Washington walking through the winner for the finals. I'll take Philadelphia in seven.

Western Conference:

Vancouver versus Nashville - Nashville in 6! Vancouver got pushed to the brink and I don't think they match up well against Nashville.

San Jose versus Detroit - Not even being a homer, but this will be the best series to watch this round. These teams are very close in talent and skill; but I'll give the edge to Detroit (duh) because San Jose barely beat LA. They won three games in OT - not exactly a ringing endorsement.

Sets up Detroit versus Nashville and Washington versus Philadelphia.

Madcap NHL Playoff Picks

First, a confession: I don't want much NHL these days. It's hard to find in Seattle. I know of one sports bar that shows games, and it's in the U-District. So my observations and picks will be based mostly on wishes and on bias. Pretty much like everything else I do. I'm hoping to catch games online - we'll see how it goes. So here's my Madcap Picks for the first round.

Eastern Conference:

1. Washington Capitals vs 8. New York Rangers - Will the Capitals finally get it, in the playoffs? Will Ovechkin become a great postseason player? I'm thinking the Caps dispose of their playoff demons (for now) and win this in 5.

2. Philadelphia Flyers vs 7. Buffalo Sabres - This is probably the most commonly picked "upset" round this year. A lot of analysts are picking the Sabres because the Flyers are hurting and not playing well. Rule of thumb: anytime most people agree on an upset, it's not going to happen. I'll take Philly in 6.

3. Boston Bruins vs 6. Montreal Canadiens - This promises to be a brutal series, after the hit that Chara put on Pacioretty just a month ago. These two teams hate each other. And that spells a seven game series to me. I'll take Montreal to come in and shock the Bruin's faithful in Boston in Game 7.

4. Pittsburgh Penguins vs 5. Tampa Bay Lightning - I don't know what to expect in this series. Will Crosby show up? I'm pretty sure if Pittsburgh falls behind in the series or faces elimination he'll be there. I'm cheering on Tampa Bay, but it's not a wise idea to pick against home ice and against experience... Pittsburgh in 6.

Western Conference

1. Vancouver Canucks vs 8.Chicago Blackhawks - Ah geez. I hope this goes 7 and these two teams cream each other. I'm picking Vancouver in 5 though.

2. San Jose Sharks vs 7. Los Angeles Kings - San Jose in 5. Kopitar is hurt, and San Jose is a good team.

3. Detroit Red Wings vs 6. Phoenix Coyotes - Rematch, huh? So if Detroit took 7 games to beat Phoenix last year, without home ice and banged up, I think I'll take Detroit in 6 this year.

4. Anaheim Ducks vs 5. Nashville Predators - Sort of the afterthought series, even if it includes probable MVP Corey Perry. Both of these teams fly under the radar. I'll take Nashville in 6.

So that sets up round 2:

Washington vs Montreal

Philadelphia vs Pittsburgh

Vancouver vs Nashville

San Jose vs Detroit (ouch)

Here's the thing... I don't see Detroit winning it this year. The Western Conference is very strong, with too many teams that seem to have Detroit's number. Vancouver, San Jose, and Chicago are teams we definitely do not want, and it's not like Nashville or Anaheim are good for our health. Our best bet is Vancouver wins, LA wins, and Nashville wins first round. Then we draw Nashville and hope that LA can beat up Vancouver. Basically, to set up a cherry second round, we're looking for an LA round one victory - the one thing that's pretty much guaranteed not to happen.

Also, we don't have Colorado to beat up this year. Maybe the Wings are bluffing - they've been coasting for a few weeks and are ready to turn it on for the playoffs (see: 2002 playoffs). Or maybe they won't turn it on in time (see: 2001 playoffs). We'll see.

Superbowl Analysis

First, I felt like I should share this video of the Marshawn Lynch Run:

So I'm at 3-7 throughout the playoffs - not a great batting average. I'll end at either 27% or 36% - by far my worst ever postseason picks percentage.

My season average is 58%, no matter where my Superbowl pick ends up. That's not a bad average, I don't think. Average, anyway (and 4% better than Dave).

And the Superbowl Pick...

We have Pittsburgh and Green Bay, with Green Bay being favored by 2.5.

Pittsburgh is more balanced; Green Bay is more explosive.

Here's the truth... When it comes to the Superbowl, you never know. The game can go anyway, and it's usually not the way you want it to go.

There's something about having to focus on just one game that really trips your brain up. When I was making regular season picks, it was much easier - because there are so many you can't really put detailed analysis into it.

So, onto my Superbowl picks. That's right, I said picks.

Bird Bowl Pick: Did you know that the Packers are named after their first sponsor - a moving company? So it's the equivalent of those shady furniture movers or a steel worker - I'll take the steel worker.

Spread Pick: If there's one team that would keep it close, it's Pittsburgh. If there's one team that would blow it wide open, it's Green Bay. I'm going to take Green Bay, I guess.

Head Pick: Green Bay in a dome. That's all I need.

Heart Pick: Green Bay Packers. I hope they win.

3/4 picks go to the Packers. So there ya go.

NFL Conference Championship Picks

Enough lovey dovey wisdom. Let's get back to football and a sad memorial..

To the 2011 playoff season... The first season since I started writing my predictions down that I will end with a losing record. Currently, I'm sitting at 2-6, with 3 games left. 2-6 against the spread as well. All that's left is to drag Dave down with me (he's sitting at 4-4).

Before we move onto the picks, let's review from October - my NFL Bias Rankings. Of the teams we have left, we have #4, the Green Bay Packers. That means they are my fourth favorite professional football team. Then we have numbers 30-32 - Pittsburgh, New York Jets, and Chicago respectively. Actually, disrespectively.

So the best case scenario is clearly a Green Bay / Pittsburgh matchup, which would average a 17 on the bias rankings. That's what I have to hope for - a matchup that averages the appeal of the Washington Redskins, who are the highest rated team in the bottom half of teams I don't like.

Of course, because God hates my sports picks, I'll be looking at a Chicago/Jets (average 31.5) superbowl, and have to decide whether I want to gouge my eyes out with a rusty fork dipped in tabasco sauce or allow my manhood to be repeatedly crushed with a hammer. Oh, and both the fork and hammer have Ebola.

Seriously, if one of those two teams wins, it might be a devastating blow to my sports appreciation. Following on Pittsburgh / Chicago Stanley Cup victories and the dismal Rich Rod experience, I might have to give up on sports altogether.

On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (Pack by 4)

Here's the truth of the issue. I've picked against the Packers twice so far. They are tied with the Jets as the possible kryptonite team for me.

But this week, I'm taking the Packers. Aaron Rodgers? Can't bet against him in the playoffs. And Chicago is still one of the luckiest teams to ever make it to a conference championship - they beat two good teams all year (New York Jets and Philadelphia, who may or may not qualify for "good" status). They had at least one bogus win - week 1 against Detroit. And they played against approximately 24 backup quarterbacks.

So I shall take Green Bay to cover the spread. Heaven help me. Green Bay 27, Chicago 14.

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (Pitt by 4)

In the last two years, I have picked the New York Jets games in the playoffs at 1-4. I have never picked the Jets to win a game.

So dang it all, I'll pick them to win this game. And be happy either way. New York 24, Pittsburgh 20. Well, as happy as I can be with a Pittsburgh win.

Enjoy the weekend, and get those tabasco forks out!

NFL: 2011 Divisional Round

So I went 0-4 in wildcard picking. I'm not prepared to panic yet - I did start 0-4 last year as well, and ended up with a winning record (6-5). I did go 1-3 against the spread.

The wildcard weekend was two coinflip games (GB/PHI and NY/IND) and two classic "85%" games. The 85% games are when 85% of the public picks the same team to win - in this case New Orleans and Baltimore. Can't say anything about the coinflip games; I just plain got those wrong (Thanks Jim Caldwell for that timeout! Thanks Vick for that interception! Jeez). But I did smell something funny in those 85% games and just picked the wrong one.

That's my excuse anyway. Let's look at the divisional round:

Ravens at Steelers (Pitt by 3)

Everyone's talking about how this game will end with one team winning by three points exactly. I don't think so. Just a hunch, but I'm thinking Pittsburgh by 6. I didn't feel too good about the Ravens in that KC game - KC just imploded. Flacco started to get rattled, which he has a tendency to do. The X-Factor, in my mind, is Ed Reed. Will he be distracted by his missing brother, or will it become one of those crazy games we hear about years later (like the game Favre played after his dad died?).

I'm thinking Pittsburgh 20, Baltimore 14.

Jets at Patriots (Patriots by 8.5)

The Patriots totally have that icy silence right now. They're totally just letting Rex Ryan (and Cromartie, etc) stick their foots (heh) in their mouths. Here's one thing I know: you can beat Tom Brady in close games. But you can't play a close game if Brady stone cold hates you.

Patriots 35, Jets 10.

Packers at Atlanta (Atlanta by 2)

An insulting line to Atlanta. Green Bay didn't play a magnificent game last week, but it was still pretty high profile, because it was against Michael Vick. I'm sticking with Atlanta - home team advantage.

Atlanta 23, Packers 17.

Seahawks at Chicago (Chicago by 10)

Too many weird things about this game. Let's look:

1. Seattle and the "nobody believed in us" factor.
2. Chicago hasn't scored a touchdown since December 26th.
3. Chicago is undoubtedly the luckiest number 2 seed ever.
4. Seattle knows they can beat Chicago at Chicago.
5. Chicago wants a bit of revenge.
6. Jay Cutler has never played in a playoff game, college or pro.
7. Two weeks in a row Seattle being double digit underdogs plays into Pete Carroll's coaching style.
8. Chicago was perhaps the one team that least needed a bye to rest.
9. Seattle has become the single greatest crappy "What If" team in recent history. Think of all the questions you can ask - could Seattle be 10 point underdogs throughout the rest of the playoffs? What if they won everything despite the opposing teams being favored by a total of 45 points? What if it's Seattle vs New England (Carroll homecoming)? Seattle vs Pittsburgh (Refpocalypse)? What if...?
10. I dreamt that Chicago would win by two points.

So bottom line, I have no idea. I do believe that either this game or the NE/NY game will be close, so I'm sticking with this one to be the close game. And who am I to argue with dreams? I'll take Chicago.

Chicago 14, Seattle 12. That seems like the most likely two point victory, right? Unless we're talking Chicago 30, Seattle 28. Either way.

WIldcard Picks: 2011

Here are my picks from last year, where I went 0-4 first round...

And here are the rules (copied and compilated from that post) that I pick by:

1. Momentum Matters.
2. One team is overhyped, one team is underhyped.
3. When in doubt, take the home team. But pick at least one road team.
4. Destiny Exists.

5. One team is kryptonite.

I gave up number 4 after last year's much feared Packers/Vikings Favrpocalypse never happened. I'm adding number 5 for me personally - there is consistently one team I pick incorrectly. The most blatant example? The 2007 Giants, who I picked to lose 4 times. So with those rules in mind, let's go to the picks.

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

Line: Indianapolis by 2.5

Jets have the ability to be my kryptonite team (they filled that role last year...), but I'm picking against them. They basically backed into the playoffs, losing 3 of their last 5 (and dropping from a potential 1 seed to the 6 seed). Indy's won 4 straight, so all the momentum is on their side. Also, Indy is home. Easy enough.

And the final nail in the coffin? Rex Ryan running his mouth. If there's one player you don't want to give reasons to psych up for a game in the NFL, it's Tom Brady. But if there's two players, Peyton Manning. So I think Indy wins this one. And I'll take them to cover the spread.

Final Score: Indianapolis 24, New York 13.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

Line: Baltimore by 3

Unsure. Kansas City might be underhyped, and Baltimore might be overhyped. Kansas City did lose their final game, killing any momentum (and home turf psychological edge). But Baltimore isn't setup to win games big; and a close game benefits the Chiefs running game.

And I do have to take an upset this round, so I'm going to take the Chiefs. Probably folly, but hey, these are my picks. Dang, that sounds so stupid. But I'm doing it. So I'll take the chiefs to win (which means they would by default cover).

It also plays into another theory - go against the grain. If most everyone agrees on something, you can try to get away with it. So I'll stick with it.

Final Score: Kansas City 20, Baltimore 17

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks

Line: New Orleans by 11

I have my upset special in Kansas City, and I have my road team special in New Orleans. Not often in the playoffs do those come in separate games.

Here's what it comes down to for me: in a game that New Orleans was only half heartedly in, they still gave Tampa a game last week. In a game that Seattle was fully in, they only beat St Louis on the incompetence of the wide receivers of STL. So when New Orleans comes out to play this week, there's no hope for Seattle. New Orleans covers.

Final Score: New Orleans 34, Seattle 9.

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles

Line: Philadelphia by 2.5

This is a hard pick because there are two Green Bay Packers teams. There's the team that scores single digit points, and the team that scores 30 points. Team A (Single Digits) has no chance at Philly. Team B (30 points) has a 50/50 shot to outscore Philadelphia. So if we said each team has an equal chance of showing up, Green Bay has a 25% chance to win. I think. Math is hard!

I also think that Green Bay tends to lose to good teams. Their signature wins were over New York Giants (a team in collapse), Chicago (a team with nothing to play for), and the Jets (the game where Sanchez looked remarkably like I think he looks all the time). They couldn't hang with New England or Atlanta, both teams I think would (or will) struggle to handle Vick. So I'll take the Eagles. I'll hedge a bit though and take Green Bay to cover.

Stay tuned next week for the Divisional Round, or whatever the heck it's called.

NFL Column: Goodbye Brett Favre

Well, it's over. 297.

Even after it became curiously cool to not like Brett Favre, there was a thrill in seeing him every week suit up. Even through the wincing pain and crazy interceptions, you couldn't argue with that.

And now it's over. Some will say good riddance; some will just say good bye.

I, for one, am sad to see Brett go. It's hard to remember if it was him or Barry Sanders that I first knew about in the NFL. My favorite play I remember seeing happened in some regular season Green Bay game, and I couldn't find the youtube link. It was a pitch play to some unnamed Green Bay Running back, and all I remember is Brett Favre leading the way down the field making three downfield blocks. It looked like something out of a college play book, and was pretty tremendous.

I have two regrets for Brett... He should have finished in Green Bay. And, barring that, he should have stayed home this year. I thought that he was milking the injuries and attention this offseason when he didn't come right back... but clearly there was something wrong there. Clearly he reached that line where he wasn't the same. And it was sad to see this season.

Anyway, good bye Brett Favre.

Seriously, good bye. Don't try to come back.

Week 14 Review:

I correctly predicted these winners: Colts, Giants, Steelers, Bucs, Falcons, Jaguars, Saints, 49ers (upset), Patriots, Eagles, and Ravens (lock).

I did not predict these winners: Bills, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, and Chargers.

Week: 11-5

Overall: 121-85

Lock: 10-4

Upset: 4-9

Week 15 Picks:

In honor of the corrupt and laughable NCAA, let's name bowl games this week!

49ers at Chargers: The Miraculously-Only-One-Game-Behind Bowl! It's our first West/West clash! Both these teams have slim playoff chances, but a loss effectively removes them from contention. I'll take the Chargers on homefield.

Browns at Bengals: The Formerly-Edge-Of-Elite-Quarterback Bowl! Bengals are bound to win one eventually, so I guess I'll take them in a mini upset.

Redskins at Cowboys: The Desperate-Fanbase Bowl! Seriously, are there any two fanbases who desperately believe they should always be winning but never are more than Dallas and Washington? At least Detroit fans know they're terrible. I'll take the Cowboys at home.

Texans at Titans: The Newly-Eliminated-From-Playoff-Contention Bowl! Saw this on my Milk Carton this morning: "Missing: Randy Moss. Was once a great Fantasy Receiver. Has not been seen in weeks; call Jeff Fisher if you have seen him." Um, Texans I guess.

Jaguars at Colts: The Seriously? Jacksonville? Bowl! Seriously? Jacksonville? I pick the Colts.

Chiefs at Rams: The Division-Leaders-By-A-Miracle Bowl! Both these teams must win to maintain their lead in their dangerous neck and neck divisions... Oh, sorry. I forgot these guys play in the West divisions. Take the Chiefs.

Bills at Dolphins: The Endangered-Species Bowl! Who knows. I hate Miami. I used to feel pity for Buffalo. Just take the home team and pray this game isn't on TV.

Eagles at Giants: The Finally-Someone-To-Tackle-Vick-And-Hurt-Him Bowl presented by PETA! Sorry, had to go there. But here's how good the Giants are at knocking out quarterbacks - they knocked Brett Favre out before the game even started... So I'll take the Giants.

Lions at Buccaneers: The 27-Is-Our-Lucky-Number Bowl! Unfortunately, the Buccaneers can beat crappy teams. Detroit is the epitome of crappy teams. Sidenote 1: through 15 weeks, I have misspelled the Buccaneers every time I tried. Even though my high school team was also the Bucs. Sidenote 2: Blogspot insists that 'Sidenote' is spelled incorrectly and wishes me to change it to 'Si denote.'

Cardinals at Panthers: The Win-By-Punt Bowl! If the defenses weren't so inept, I would have called this the "Win-By-Safety Bowl." Maybe Carolina can eke out a win here.

Saints at Ravens: The It's-Way-Hard-To-Think-Of-Clever-Names-When-Both-Teams-Don't-Suck Bowl! Although the Ravens may suck. They win, but have they impressed you yet? I'll take the Saints.

Falcons at Seahawks: The Bird Bowl! My greatest regret is moving away from Bird Bowl picking earlier this year. Even though Bird Bowling always sucked at making picks. This week, I don't care. I'm sticking with the Bird Bowling and picking Falcons. A falcon could totally beat up a seahawk, right? A seahawk is just a dumb name for a seagull, isn't it? Falcons are the Lock.

Broncos at Raiders: The Tim-Tebow-Introduction Bowl! Because you know that Tebow is coming in. You just don't know when. He's like a shark. You'll never know. I'll take Oakland.

Jets at Steelers: The Arrogant-Schmuck Bowl! Could you assemble a team of worst people? Rex Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Mark Sanchez, LDT, and the entirety of the Jets/Steelers organizations? Jets have been badly exposed the past two weeks, and that continues here.

Packers at Patriots: The Funny-Feeling Bowl! Because I have a funny feeling that after we spent the last three weeks comparing the Patriots to the 2007 we're due for a letdown. So I'll take the Packers.

Bears at Vikings: The Who-Cares-Now Bowl! Minnesota went from being the land of drama to the land of snoozes. Bears will probably win.

Reminder: It's the Superbowl

Just to remind you that I picked Saints 38, Colts 35.

I (and Dave) picked the playoffs at 5-5 and sit at .500. A win today and we have a winning playoff pick record. A loss means a losing record.

Superbowl Pick

Gotta hurry up and get my pick out before Dave usurps me.

Thoughts on last week:

I came pretty close with the scores, didn't I?
Predicted Colts 31, Jets 10
Actual? Colts 30, Jets 17

Predicted Saints 35, Vikings 27
Actual? Saints 31, Vikings 28

For a total offage in points of 13. Not bad.

So next week its the Saints and the Colts. What a dream matchup.

Here are my thoughts:

Colts haven't played a high octane offense in quite awhile. Meanwhile, the Saints have played two hall of fame quarterbacks in a row.

Colts have precision on their side; New Orleans has luck. And you can't beat luck.

Can you imagine the outrage if the Colts did win, and didn't get the 19-0? We'd never not hear about it... But also, can you imagine the looting if New Orleans were to lose?

New Orleans 38, Indianapolis 35, and the best Super Bowl we've seen in several years.

NFL Conference Picks

3-1 last week, to move to 3-5 overall. Can I pull it out and take a winning record?

No rules for conference round. Mainly because my rules have done much of nothing (other than Dallas being way overhyped!). Also, my rules would lead to me picking the JETS JETS JETS, and I refuse to believe that Mark Sanchez could lead a team to the Superbowl.

So first picks - NY JETS at Indianapolis Colts...

Karma game? Nope. This is the game that will piss off Colts fans forever - because Peyton and the first string will demolish the Jets, and lead to endless soul searching about the loss of 19-0.

Colts 31, Jets 10.


Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

This is a Karmic revenge game. Brett Favre running up the score late in a game against America's team? America's New Team is going to break him. Minnesota seemed to use last week to prove themselves - New Orleans used their time to shake off some rust. Now it's New Orleans turn to prove themselves. Should be a thrilling game, and will lead to six more months of Brett Favre Retirement Mania.

New Orleans 35, Minnesota 27

NFL Divisional Round Picks

Before the picks, some further thoughts from yesterday:
1. When typing out the possible quarterback matchups, I mistakenly inserted Carson Palmer and didn't have Brett Favre, in my first draft. Simply because I still can't wrap my head around a) Green Bay losing, yet Brett Favre plays on and b) Mark Sanchez won a playoff game.
2. My original picks were made on January 4. Dave's picks and Bill Simmon's picks were made on January 8th. We all picked the same four teams. We are all 0-4. I just wanted to vindicate myself - I made my own crappy picks, and didn't follow anyone else. (Why do I need to vindicate 0-4?)
3. Destiny... overlooked? To end the season, the Jets beat the Indianapolis and Cincinatti Bengals in weeks 16 and 17, respectively. Last weekend, they beat the Bengals first team... This weekend? They play Indianapolis. Do you think if Indianapolis loses this weekend they want to rewind and leave Manning in for 4 quarters against NY?

Okay. On to picks. Here are my divisional round rules, with how I think they might react this round.
1. At least one bye team is upset.
I could see this going anywhere. That's exciting. The definition of upset seems to point towards Baltimore or New York; Arizona and Dallas aren't radical underdogs. Also, I really want to just pick all the home teams this year, because I can see all of them being better than any of the other teams.

2. There's one team that everyone didn't pick first round, and everyone radically overreacts and takes the second round.
This award goes to... New York! or Dallas! Or both!

3. There's one team (or in the case of this season, one player) that hates me, personally.
In 2007, I had my best year picking playoff games. I went 7-4. All four of my incorrect picks were against the NY Giants, the eventual Super Bowl Champions. Last year, I went 6-5, and three of those incorrect picks were against Arizona. So who's doing it this year? Well, that goes back to Fantasy Football - and the answer is Joe Flacco. I don't know if it's because I lived with a rabid ravens fan a year or two ago and watched entirely too much of Senor Brow, but this year... He hated me! Every game I benched him in Fantasy he would through 8 touchdowns and a thousand yards, and when I started him he would have a negative passer rating. Then in the first round, the Ravens upset the Pats and I'm 0-4. He hates me.

Arizona at New Orleans - This game doesn't seem to me to invoke any of my rules, so I'll take the safe bet and say New Orleans wins; Arizona is gassed from a long and fast game with Green Bay. New Orleans by 7.

Dallas at Minnesota - Dallas is the radical overreaction. So Minnesota wins by 14; because they won't roll over and die like Donovan McNabb.

New York at Indianapolis - New York has some ooomph to them now. Indy is going to start flat. But can you really say that MARK FREAKING SANCHEZ will beat Peyton Manning in the playoffs? This is my hardest prediction, and I hate it - but I'm going to say yes. Manning only has one superbowl ring, and before he had that, he was known (not nicely) as a playoff choke. Jets by 10, and Manning throws more picks than TD's.

Baltimore at San Diego - No matter what I do here, Flacco will kill me. If I pick San Diego, Flacco will throw for 6 TD's and then run for four more; all the while kicking bombasticly placed punts. (Bombastic is a word I vow to use more often). If I pick Baltimore, Flacco throws 5 interceptions. I'm screwed. Jamison right now is jumping up and down, screaming for me to take San Diego. Eh, San Diego by 12.



EDIT

Oops. Baltimore is playing Indy, and San Diego gets the Jets. I thought the Jets were the 6 seed? Eh. I'll take San Diego over the Jets, and Colts over Baltimore. Forget the upset!

OUCH, my spleen!

Worst weekend picking NFL Games ? Ever?

Maybe.

I went 0-4. That's right. A big old goose egg.

Let's review the rules:

Momentum Matters - Okay. So the Jets win, and the Cowboys, arguably the momentum teams. But the Packers lose, who had way more momentum than anyone else on the first round. Pats/Ravens is a wash in this category.

One team is overhyped, one is underhyped. Perhaps the Packers were the overhyped team, and the Ravens underhyped?

When in doubt, take the home team. But always pick one road team. 2 road teams won this weekend - Jets and Ravens. Have no idea what to say here.

Destiny exists in the NFL - No Packs/Vikes III. No Pats/Colts II (as Bill Simmons called them: "Pats/Colts: Fourth and two... again! and Packers/Favre III: Apocalypse Now). So what does that leave for destiny? Old timer Bowl - Favre vs Warner? Battle of the No Rings - Brees vs Rivers? UnSuper Bowl - Romo vs Sanchez?

I don't know anymore. My head hurts.

More picks tomorrow.

Wildcard Picks

Ah... Tis the Season. Time to Make some NFL Playoff picks. Here are a few of my pick rules:

1. Momentum Matters.
2. One team is overhyped, one team is underhyped.
3. When in doubt, take the home team. But pick at least one road team.

And I'm adding a rule for this year only - 4. Destiny exists, which is going to effect my NFC picks (and overrule other rules).

AFC:
Jets at Bengals - Rough call. Rules 1 and 3 are at odds here - or are they? Jets have momentum; but they have momentum against the Indianapolis farm team, and... the Bengals(!) who probably weren't playing last week. I'm going to stick with the home team - Bengals by 10.

Ravens at Patriots - None of these games are going to be easy to pick, huh. This is a tough picks because I love the Ravens in postseason play - but I haven't given up Tom Brady as "most likely to win a game singlehandedly against all odds" either. Here's how I see this game going - in the cold, these two teams punch each other in the mouth, but Tom Brady and Randy Moss win it in the end. Pats by 4.

NFC:
Here's the takeaway for Rule #4: Green Bay beats Minnesota in the playoffs. That's all for Rule #4. I'm tempted to say that GB wins the Super Bowl, but I'm not sure Destiny doesn't believe in New Orleans (or San Diego). So here's how I see Destiny working in the NFC:

Eagles at Cowboys - Eagles win. The Eagles always seem to just have another drive over other teams, and the Cowboys always do something to screw up. Eagles by 7. This fulfills my 1 road team wins quota, and sets up Destiny because...

Packers at Arizona - because the Packers win at Arizona in a shootout. Defense? We don't need no stinking defense! Packers by 6 and earn a trip to Minnesota. No reason other than #4.

This means the second round would consist of Eagles at New Orleans (great game), Green Bay at Minnesota (ESPN might explode), Bengals at Colts (meh... Colts by a lot, no one cares), and Patriots at Chargers (another great game). So I predict in the NFC Title game - Green Bay at New Orleans, and for the AFC Title - Chargers at Colts.

Superbowl - Chargers at New Orleans in Miami. This may be the most fun Super Bowl ever - two electric teams. Going off of Destiny.... New Orleans as the Superbowl Champions.



P.S.
1. I know I picked more than one road team to win. Destiny overrules the other rules.
2. Underhyped team is Bengals (maybe Arizona). Overhyped is Cowboys (or possibly San Diego).