WIldcard Picks: 2011

Here are my picks from last year, where I went 0-4 first round...

And here are the rules (copied and compilated from that post) that I pick by:

1. Momentum Matters.
2. One team is overhyped, one team is underhyped.
3. When in doubt, take the home team. But pick at least one road team.
4. Destiny Exists.

5. One team is kryptonite.

I gave up number 4 after last year's much feared Packers/Vikings Favrpocalypse never happened. I'm adding number 5 for me personally - there is consistently one team I pick incorrectly. The most blatant example? The 2007 Giants, who I picked to lose 4 times. So with those rules in mind, let's go to the picks.

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

Line: Indianapolis by 2.5

Jets have the ability to be my kryptonite team (they filled that role last year...), but I'm picking against them. They basically backed into the playoffs, losing 3 of their last 5 (and dropping from a potential 1 seed to the 6 seed). Indy's won 4 straight, so all the momentum is on their side. Also, Indy is home. Easy enough.

And the final nail in the coffin? Rex Ryan running his mouth. If there's one player you don't want to give reasons to psych up for a game in the NFL, it's Tom Brady. But if there's two players, Peyton Manning. So I think Indy wins this one. And I'll take them to cover the spread.

Final Score: Indianapolis 24, New York 13.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

Line: Baltimore by 3

Unsure. Kansas City might be underhyped, and Baltimore might be overhyped. Kansas City did lose their final game, killing any momentum (and home turf psychological edge). But Baltimore isn't setup to win games big; and a close game benefits the Chiefs running game.

And I do have to take an upset this round, so I'm going to take the Chiefs. Probably folly, but hey, these are my picks. Dang, that sounds so stupid. But I'm doing it. So I'll take the chiefs to win (which means they would by default cover).

It also plays into another theory - go against the grain. If most everyone agrees on something, you can try to get away with it. So I'll stick with it.

Final Score: Kansas City 20, Baltimore 17

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks

Line: New Orleans by 11

I have my upset special in Kansas City, and I have my road team special in New Orleans. Not often in the playoffs do those come in separate games.

Here's what it comes down to for me: in a game that New Orleans was only half heartedly in, they still gave Tampa a game last week. In a game that Seattle was fully in, they only beat St Louis on the incompetence of the wide receivers of STL. So when New Orleans comes out to play this week, there's no hope for Seattle. New Orleans covers.

Final Score: New Orleans 34, Seattle 9.

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles

Line: Philadelphia by 2.5

This is a hard pick because there are two Green Bay Packers teams. There's the team that scores single digit points, and the team that scores 30 points. Team A (Single Digits) has no chance at Philly. Team B (30 points) has a 50/50 shot to outscore Philadelphia. So if we said each team has an equal chance of showing up, Green Bay has a 25% chance to win. I think. Math is hard!

I also think that Green Bay tends to lose to good teams. Their signature wins were over New York Giants (a team in collapse), Chicago (a team with nothing to play for), and the Jets (the game where Sanchez looked remarkably like I think he looks all the time). They couldn't hang with New England or Atlanta, both teams I think would (or will) struggle to handle Vick. So I'll take the Eagles. I'll hedge a bit though and take Green Bay to cover.

Stay tuned next week for the Divisional Round, or whatever the heck it's called.