NFL Divisional Round Picks

Before the picks, some further thoughts from yesterday:
1. When typing out the possible quarterback matchups, I mistakenly inserted Carson Palmer and didn't have Brett Favre, in my first draft. Simply because I still can't wrap my head around a) Green Bay losing, yet Brett Favre plays on and b) Mark Sanchez won a playoff game.
2. My original picks were made on January 4. Dave's picks and Bill Simmon's picks were made on January 8th. We all picked the same four teams. We are all 0-4. I just wanted to vindicate myself - I made my own crappy picks, and didn't follow anyone else. (Why do I need to vindicate 0-4?)
3. Destiny... overlooked? To end the season, the Jets beat the Indianapolis and Cincinatti Bengals in weeks 16 and 17, respectively. Last weekend, they beat the Bengals first team... This weekend? They play Indianapolis. Do you think if Indianapolis loses this weekend they want to rewind and leave Manning in for 4 quarters against NY?

Okay. On to picks. Here are my divisional round rules, with how I think they might react this round.
1. At least one bye team is upset.
I could see this going anywhere. That's exciting. The definition of upset seems to point towards Baltimore or New York; Arizona and Dallas aren't radical underdogs. Also, I really want to just pick all the home teams this year, because I can see all of them being better than any of the other teams.

2. There's one team that everyone didn't pick first round, and everyone radically overreacts and takes the second round.
This award goes to... New York! or Dallas! Or both!

3. There's one team (or in the case of this season, one player) that hates me, personally.
In 2007, I had my best year picking playoff games. I went 7-4. All four of my incorrect picks were against the NY Giants, the eventual Super Bowl Champions. Last year, I went 6-5, and three of those incorrect picks were against Arizona. So who's doing it this year? Well, that goes back to Fantasy Football - and the answer is Joe Flacco. I don't know if it's because I lived with a rabid ravens fan a year or two ago and watched entirely too much of Senor Brow, but this year... He hated me! Every game I benched him in Fantasy he would through 8 touchdowns and a thousand yards, and when I started him he would have a negative passer rating. Then in the first round, the Ravens upset the Pats and I'm 0-4. He hates me.

Arizona at New Orleans - This game doesn't seem to me to invoke any of my rules, so I'll take the safe bet and say New Orleans wins; Arizona is gassed from a long and fast game with Green Bay. New Orleans by 7.

Dallas at Minnesota - Dallas is the radical overreaction. So Minnesota wins by 14; because they won't roll over and die like Donovan McNabb.

New York at Indianapolis - New York has some ooomph to them now. Indy is going to start flat. But can you really say that MARK FREAKING SANCHEZ will beat Peyton Manning in the playoffs? This is my hardest prediction, and I hate it - but I'm going to say yes. Manning only has one superbowl ring, and before he had that, he was known (not nicely) as a playoff choke. Jets by 10, and Manning throws more picks than TD's.

Baltimore at San Diego - No matter what I do here, Flacco will kill me. If I pick San Diego, Flacco will throw for 6 TD's and then run for four more; all the while kicking bombasticly placed punts. (Bombastic is a word I vow to use more often). If I pick Baltimore, Flacco throws 5 interceptions. I'm screwed. Jamison right now is jumping up and down, screaming for me to take San Diego. Eh, San Diego by 12.



EDIT

Oops. Baltimore is playing Indy, and San Diego gets the Jets. I thought the Jets were the 6 seed? Eh. I'll take San Diego over the Jets, and Colts over Baltimore. Forget the upset!