I've discovered a few things this year, and have developed a new rule system for how to pick games against the spread. Here's the new set of rules (listed in descending order of importance (so the last rule trumps rules before it)).
4. Cam Newton covers spreads.
3. Don't back the NFC West on the road.
2. If you think the Giants should do well, pick the other team. If they should do poorly, pick the Giants.
1. Continue to pick against the Lions until they lose (don't break the streak).
Week 5 Incorrect Picks: Philadelphia, Seattle, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Chicago
Week 5 Push: New England
Week 5 Record: 7-5-1
Year Thus Far: 41-33-3
Week 6 Picks:
Panthers at Falcons (ATL by 4): See above and take Carolina.
Colts at Bengals (CIN by 7): Cincinnati has a really good defense, who should cover this spread themselves.
49ers at Lions (Det by 5): See Rule 1 above. I pick San Fran.
St Louis at Green Bay (GB by 16): A few things warring in me here: don't back crappy nfc west teams on the road... but sixteen points is a lot. Green Bay only blew out one team this year, Denver. Is St Louis worse than Denver...? Yes. Green Bay then.
Bills at Giants (NYG by 3): It seems like the Bills are the better team, so I'll take New York.
Jaguars at Steelers (PIT by 13): A really good defense will always super trump an inept offense. Pittsburgh.
Eagles at Redskins (PHI by 2): You know once I stop picking the Eagles or when I sit Vick in fantasy they'll explode for a game they're due for. The Eagles are definitely last years Cowboys; I don't think they have any respect for Reid left. But I'll give them one more try, and take them here. If they don't pull it off here, I'm off the Eagles Train completely.
Browns at Raiders (OAK by 7): Oakland would be the ultimate flip-flop team if not for NYG. But I rather like this matchup, and McFadden should be due for another monster. I'll take the Raiders as my Lock.
Texans at Ravens (BAL by 8): Injuries mounting for the Texans. Sidenote: only in sports can you use the phrase "mounting" and it's not inappropriate. Unless we are talking about Roethlisberger. I like Baltimore in this game, but I don't like them by 8 points.
Cowboys at Patriots (NE by 7): I love it when the Ryan brothers open their mouth and get proved wrong like the idiots they are. Latest example is that the Dallas defense will be bringing the "kitchen sink" to stop Brady. Uh, no. I'll bet that doesn't work and Dallas gets blown out.
Saints at Bucs (NO by 4): Since I like the Bucs to rebound and keep this one close, they are my Upset.
Vikings at Bears (CHI by 3): Intrigueing battle of has-beens in the NFC North. McNabb versus Cutler... It's Sunday Night Football on NBC! I'll take Minnesota.
Dolphins at Jets (NYJ by 7): This is an interesting upset pick. But how far can you ride the Jets downfall? They should win here by a lot, but Miami does weird things in games sometimes.
Fantasy Review:
CRISTABall - I am a wrecking ball in this league, and now I get Aaron Hernandez back! (Bye Tony Scheffler). I won 140-30 this week, and am on a bye this week. This has to be the weirdest scoring fantasy league I've ever been in; Eli Manning had 52 points this week. Also, byes in fantasy? Weird.
Go Lions - Hope is fading quickly. Too many disappointments (Vick, Jackson) to outweigh the brightspots (McFadden, Gonzalez). I lost pretty badly to Dave last week, and half of my team is apparently on a bye this week. We'll see if I can waiver up some replacements.
Emerald City Eight - What an exhilariting ride this league has been... But I'm probably done for here. I lost this week, in the most maddening way... I had two remaining players (Stafford and the Lions D/ST). Stafford gets me just enough points to be two points ahead of the team I'm playing (122-120 at this point), and then the Lions stop throwing all together and go to Jahvid Best to grind out the clock. If Stafford gets 10 more yards, I get a point and probably win. Instead... they punt, and Chicago racks up 90 garbage yards (or however long that last drive was) and I lost 119-120. Unbelievable.
But hey, the Lions still win, so there!
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