With the latest Tebow heroics, the Lions have a shot at a playoff game. They have no shot once they're in the playoffs though... Here are the teams that Detroit could potentially face:
Green Bay (Stompgate, part 3)
New Orleans (Who embarassed us on National TV)
San Fran (Handshake Gate redux)
Dallas (remember, the team we pissed off by coming back from 17 points down, or something)
Atlanta (the team that accused us of making fun of their wussy quarterback)
Each one of those teams will relish knocking us out of the playoffs in their stadium.
On to the picks.
week 14 correct picks: Houston, Minnesota, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, San Diego,
week 14 incorrect picks: Pittsburgh, Jets, New England, Denver, San Fran, Green Bay, Dallas, Seattle
week 14: 8-8
overall: 101-96-10
week 15 picks:
Jacksonville vs Atlanta (ATL by 12): Jacksonville gets no respect! 41 points last week, a sneaky good defense, and a suddenly beastly MJD? And ATL doesn't really blow out teams, and they play down to their opponent, and I'll take the Jags here.
Cowboys vs Bucs (Dal by 7): Yikes. This will be a goodbye game for Raheem Morris once Dallas takes out their Sunday Night frustration and beats em by 20.
Dolphins vs Bills (Mia by 2): I'm going to take Buffalo here. Home dog playing a team that just fired their head coach.
Seahawks vs Bears (Chi by 4): I will take back every mean thing I said about you Pete Carroll if you can beat the Bears this week. I'll take Seattle and maybe actually watch this game.
Titans vs Colts (Ten by 7): Can't pick the Colts.
Packers at Chiefs (GB by 14): Green Bay dismantles inferior teams. I turned off the Oakland game last week because it was boring. This will be the same.
Bengals at Rams (Cin by 7): I hadn't even seen the line before I was typing "take Cincy."
Saints vs Vikings (NO by 7): I think New Orleans is going to win. I think we're on the road to a rematch of the first game of the season - New Orleans and Green Bay. Won't get any better than that.
Redskins vs Giants (NYG by 7): My secret hope? That Dallas and New York lose out, and Philadelphia somehow gets the NFC East title. I don't think it happens, but it would be fun. New York should win this game.
Panthers vs Texans (Hou by 7): The king of the back door cover may rear his head this week. I'll take Carolina.
Lions vs Raiders (Det by 2): Is McFadden still out? Probably not, since he's already cost me two fantasy leagues. I was going to hedge here, but Carson Palmer is TERRIBLE. The Lions should win. They better win.
Patriots vs Broncos (NE by 7): Here's the thing: Tebow can score a few. He put up 35 on Minnesota, right? And NE has a pretty bad secondary, right? And ultimately, if the game is within 7 at the end, Tebow is going to win, right? I'm gonna take Tebow as my upset.
Jets vs Eagles (Phi by 3): Jets are in their infuriating end of the season run, and Philadelphia just won a game they weren't supposed to. I'll take the Jets here.
Browns vs Cardinals (Ari by 7): Thats a high line for a team that won it's last two by an average of 1.5. I'll take Cleveland to keep it close.
Ravens at Chargers (Bal by 1): A curiously low line. I think Baltimore wants to win and stay in the drivers seat for their division, and I'm also thinking we're one monster loss away from the end of the Norv Turner Era. I'll take Baltimore.
Steelers at 49ers (SF by 3): Oh god. Pittsburgh wins this game and suddenly San Fran will be the 3 seed... Playing the 6 seed in round one... Are you ready to see the handshake 4000 times?
Fantasy:
I just missed the playoffs in both Go Lions and CRISTAball. Ultimately, McFadden being out and not having a solid QB cost me CRISTAball, and Go Lions was lost because Dave couldn't beat Crazy Keith in the last week. That hurts, Dave.
I'm in the playoffs in the Emerald City Eight, and have a couple of dilemmas. Here are my four running backs:
Rashard Mendenhall (playing San Fran, 1st against run)
Chris Johnson (Playing Indy, 30th against run)
MJD (playing Atl, 6th against run)
AP (playing NO, 20th against run, and coming back from injury).
My three receivers:
Vincent Jackson
Marques Colston
Julio Jones
Pick 3 from the first and 2 from the second...
(oh, and I'm playing Gonzalez over Gates this week).
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Sunday, December 11, 2011
NFL Quick Picks
quickly now:
week 13 correct: Seattle, Titans, Chiefs (Upset), Miami, Denver, Pittsburgh, Jets (lock), Texans, Baltimore, San Fran, New Orleans, San Diego
Week 13 incorrect: New England, Tampa, Green Bay, Dallas,
Week 13: 12-4
overall: 93-88-10
I like:
Texans - 3: TJ Yates... not bad!
Detroit -10: Don't think Detroit blows em out, but still get the win.
Saints +4: Not buying Ten anymore.
Eagles -3: I'm selling Miami, as they are going really high right now.
Jets -11: Don't think Sanchez has it in him to blow them out.
Patriots +9: I'll lock this guy down!
Falcons +3: As many touchdowns as will be in this game, it won't come down to three points, and I think that favors Atl.
Jacksonville -3: Dumb game, dumb teams. Take the Jags as an upset.
Ravens -17: Uh, why would I pick the team that has a history of playing down to their opponents to win by 17?
Denver +4: Tebow!
SF +5: That's basically free money, right? (I'm not taking a page out of Bill Simmons book and trying to curse San Fran, trust me I'm not!).
GB -13: I think they win here, but it's not going to be a blowout. This is probably the trickiest game for GB - two weeks in a row of games they could have lost, followed by a game they should win... Something smells funny.
SD +7: I think Buffalo might be done. And San Diego is trying for that patented "just when you thought we were out, Oakland and Denver lose this weekend and we are suddenly only one game back..."
Dal +3: No idea why. Home team I guess.
Seahawks -10: Don't think Seattle has a blowout in them.
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Week 13 Picks
Week 11 Record: 5-9
Week 12 Record: 7-3-5 (I meant to take New Orleans).
Overall Record: 81-84-10
Week 13 Picks:
Eagles at Seahawks (Phi by 3): Qwest over Young. (That means I pick Seattle).
Titans at Bills (Buf by 3): I'm taking Ten here, because they have something to play for.
Chiefs at Bears (Chi by 7): I can't pick Hanie to win by 7! I'll take the Chiefs as an upset.
Raiders at Dolphins (Mia by 3): Miami is frisky, and I'll take them here. Oakland is about due for a loss.
Broncos at Vikings (Min by 1): How can you pick against Tebow right now? Especially without AP?
Colts at Patriots (NE by 21): When does Brady get pulled? Second quarter, right? That should be enough to get 24 points, which should cover the line.
Bengals at Steelers (Pit by 7)
Panthers at Buccaneers (TB by 3): Tampa, I would hope. I think. I dont know.
Jets at Redskins (NYJ by 3): I will take the Jets as a lock. Don't look now, but we're headed for another 6th seed for the Jets, who will then win two games and get blown out in an AFC championship.
Falcons at Texans (ATL by 3): Go TJ Yates! I'll pick Houston - the home dog.
Ravens at Browns (Bal by 7): Someone said this on a podcast the other day: it's not a trap game when it's every other game. I'll take Baltimore.
Packers at Giants (GB by 7): Intrigueing to look at the Giants. But I hear they have some injuries, so I'll take the Packers. But the Giants have a tendency to win games you don't expect.
Cowboys at Cardinals (Dal by 5): Dallas? I guess?
Rams at 49ers (SF by 14): I'm never picking the Rams again.
Lions at Saints (NO by 9): Big game for the Lions. They need to go 3-2 to make the playoffs. Minnesota is probably a win, SD certainly looks doable. So we need to either pick up a game here, at Oakland, or at Green Bay (week 17). If New York could pull off an upset this week, then Detroit probably takes week 17. I dont think Detroit wins this week, but I think we might still limp into the playoffs.
Chargers at Jaguars (SD by 3): Wow, SD has quit, hasn't they? But Del Rio got fired, so SD will win this one.
Fantasy Records:
Emerald City Eight: 7-5 for 3rd place. Should make the playoffs (Which I guess are in week 15 in this league?
Cristaball: 6-4 for 4th place in my division, currently. I need a win and two people to lose, and I might still not make it based on the tiebreakers. I think the playoffs start week 14 and are two weeks a round? What a weird league.
Go Lions: 7-5 for third place. I have a rough game this week, but I'm also hopeful 4th place will lose to Dave. I seem to be in good position for the playoffs, which are week 15.
Week 12 Record: 7-3-5 (I meant to take New Orleans).
Overall Record: 81-84-10
Week 13 Picks:
Eagles at Seahawks (Phi by 3): Qwest over Young. (That means I pick Seattle).
Titans at Bills (Buf by 3): I'm taking Ten here, because they have something to play for.
Chiefs at Bears (Chi by 7): I can't pick Hanie to win by 7! I'll take the Chiefs as an upset.
Raiders at Dolphins (Mia by 3): Miami is frisky, and I'll take them here. Oakland is about due for a loss.
Broncos at Vikings (Min by 1): How can you pick against Tebow right now? Especially without AP?
Colts at Patriots (NE by 21): When does Brady get pulled? Second quarter, right? That should be enough to get 24 points, which should cover the line.
Bengals at Steelers (Pit by 7)
Panthers at Buccaneers (TB by 3): Tampa, I would hope. I think. I dont know.
Jets at Redskins (NYJ by 3): I will take the Jets as a lock. Don't look now, but we're headed for another 6th seed for the Jets, who will then win two games and get blown out in an AFC championship.
Falcons at Texans (ATL by 3): Go TJ Yates! I'll pick Houston - the home dog.
Ravens at Browns (Bal by 7): Someone said this on a podcast the other day: it's not a trap game when it's every other game. I'll take Baltimore.
Packers at Giants (GB by 7): Intrigueing to look at the Giants. But I hear they have some injuries, so I'll take the Packers. But the Giants have a tendency to win games you don't expect.
Cowboys at Cardinals (Dal by 5): Dallas? I guess?
Rams at 49ers (SF by 14): I'm never picking the Rams again.
Lions at Saints (NO by 9): Big game for the Lions. They need to go 3-2 to make the playoffs. Minnesota is probably a win, SD certainly looks doable. So we need to either pick up a game here, at Oakland, or at Green Bay (week 17). If New York could pull off an upset this week, then Detroit probably takes week 17. I dont think Detroit wins this week, but I think we might still limp into the playoffs.
Chargers at Jaguars (SD by 3): Wow, SD has quit, hasn't they? But Del Rio got fired, so SD will win this one.
Fantasy Records:
Emerald City Eight: 7-5 for 3rd place. Should make the playoffs (Which I guess are in week 15 in this league?
Cristaball: 6-4 for 4th place in my division, currently. I need a win and two people to lose, and I might still not make it based on the tiebreakers. I think the playoffs start week 14 and are two weeks a round? What a weird league.
Go Lions: 7-5 for third place. I have a rough game this week, but I'm also hopeful 4th place will lose to Dave. I seem to be in good position for the playoffs, which are week 15.
Sunday, November 27, 2011
Week 12 quick picks
Thanksgiving blah busy blah here are the picks blah blah oh god the quick picks:
I took Detroit, Dallas, Baltimore. 1-2 so far.
Falcons +10
Bengals +7
Ten +3
Indy -4
Rams +3
Bills -10 (upset)
Texans +7 (lock)
Raiders +3
Seahawks +3
Eagles -4
Broncos -6
Chiefs -11
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Week 11: Congratulations
Major congratulations to my good friend Dave, with the birth of his daughter Emaline this last week. Not that Dave birthed Emaline (as far as I know, that was Allison). Readers may know that I recently beat Dave soundly in fantasy football (121.12-121.06), so I'm glad he's able to have some sun in his life.
Week 10 Correct Picks: New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Dallas, Tennessee, Seattle, Chicago (I intended to pick them but did not write it, and I'm taking the credit), Patriots,
Week 10 Incorrect Picks: San Diego, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Washington, New York Giants (Lock 4-5-1), Philadephia, Buccaneers (Upset 5-5), Vikings
Week 10 Record: 7-9
Record Thus Far: 69-70-7 (Ah, below .500!)
Week 11 Picks
Jets at Broncos (NYJ by 7): It's either NY by 30, or Denver by 1. So I'm unsure. I had to pick up Sanchez and Burress in one league, so I'm gonna imagine it's NYJ by 30.
Jaguars at Browns (Jac by 1): Can Cleveland score touchdowns? I'm not sure. I like Jacksonville here, as I don't think Cleveland will get over 6 points.
Panthers at Lions (Det by 7): I'm pretty sure that Detroit will blow out the Panthers this week to set up the game against Green Bay on Thanksgiving. And I'm pretty sure the league will make sure that the narrative for Thanksgiving is the 7-3 Lions versus the 10-0 Packers rather than the Packers Versus the Lions-who-have-lost-4-of-their-last-5.
Buccanneers at Packers (GB by 14): Jeez, is GB gonna get double digit points every week? I have to take them here too.
Bills at Dolphins (Mia by 1): I like Buffalo. Everyones a little too quick on the Miami bandwagon.
Raiders at Vikings (Oak by 1): I have no idea. I guess I'll pick Oakland.
Cowboys at Redskins (Dal by 8): I tried to talk myself into Washington here, but I'm gonna pick Dallas. There's a more sane upset pick later in the round.
Bengals at Ravens (Bal by 8): Ravens. They play good against good teams.
Seahawks at Rams (STL by 2): Don't pick NFC West teams on the road! St Louis. Lock!
Cardinals at 49ers (SF by 10): I don't like SF by 10 over anyone - they just don't blow teams out. I'll take Arizona as an upset - only because I think the final game will be deceptively close.
Titans at Falcons (Atl by 7): Titans could sneak back into the AFC South if Leinart blows up Houston. I think I'll take Ten here, at least to keep it close.
Chargers at Bears (Chi by 4): If I rewrote my bias rankings, I would absolutely rank Chicago 32. (Edit: I did already). I hate them. And to see everyone jump on their bandwagon as the third best team in the NFC - it's ridiculous. Let's compare the wins/losses for Detroit/Chicago. They split their series, so Chicago has losses to New Orleans and Green Bay. Detroit has losses to San Francisco and Atlanta. These teams are even - even down to the brittle quarterback under a lost of criticism. Chicago runs, Detroit throws. The bottom line? Screw Chicago. I'll take San Diego.
Eagles at Giants (NYG by 4): I can't really pick against New York, and I can't pick Philadelphia anymore.
Chiefs at Patriots (NE by 15): New England. Don't be silly.
Week 10 Correct Picks: New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Dallas, Tennessee, Seattle, Chicago (I intended to pick them but did not write it, and I'm taking the credit), Patriots,
Week 10 Incorrect Picks: San Diego, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Washington, New York Giants (Lock 4-5-1), Philadephia, Buccaneers (Upset 5-5), Vikings
Week 10 Record: 7-9
Record Thus Far: 69-70-7 (Ah, below .500!)
Week 11 Picks
Jets at Broncos (NYJ by 7): It's either NY by 30, or Denver by 1. So I'm unsure. I had to pick up Sanchez and Burress in one league, so I'm gonna imagine it's NYJ by 30.
Jaguars at Browns (Jac by 1): Can Cleveland score touchdowns? I'm not sure. I like Jacksonville here, as I don't think Cleveland will get over 6 points.
Panthers at Lions (Det by 7): I'm pretty sure that Detroit will blow out the Panthers this week to set up the game against Green Bay on Thanksgiving. And I'm pretty sure the league will make sure that the narrative for Thanksgiving is the 7-3 Lions versus the 10-0 Packers rather than the Packers Versus the Lions-who-have-lost-4-of-their-last-5.
Buccanneers at Packers (GB by 14): Jeez, is GB gonna get double digit points every week? I have to take them here too.
Bills at Dolphins (Mia by 1): I like Buffalo. Everyones a little too quick on the Miami bandwagon.
Raiders at Vikings (Oak by 1): I have no idea. I guess I'll pick Oakland.
Cowboys at Redskins (Dal by 8): I tried to talk myself into Washington here, but I'm gonna pick Dallas. There's a more sane upset pick later in the round.
Bengals at Ravens (Bal by 8): Ravens. They play good against good teams.
Seahawks at Rams (STL by 2): Don't pick NFC West teams on the road! St Louis. Lock!
Cardinals at 49ers (SF by 10): I don't like SF by 10 over anyone - they just don't blow teams out. I'll take Arizona as an upset - only because I think the final game will be deceptively close.
Titans at Falcons (Atl by 7): Titans could sneak back into the AFC South if Leinart blows up Houston. I think I'll take Ten here, at least to keep it close.
Chargers at Bears (Chi by 4): If I rewrote my bias rankings, I would absolutely rank Chicago 32. (Edit: I did already). I hate them. And to see everyone jump on their bandwagon as the third best team in the NFC - it's ridiculous. Let's compare the wins/losses for Detroit/Chicago. They split their series, so Chicago has losses to New Orleans and Green Bay. Detroit has losses to San Francisco and Atlanta. These teams are even - even down to the brittle quarterback under a lost of criticism. Chicago runs, Detroit throws. The bottom line? Screw Chicago. I'll take San Diego.
Eagles at Giants (NYG by 4): I can't really pick against New York, and I can't pick Philadelphia anymore.
Chiefs at Patriots (NE by 15): New England. Don't be silly.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Week 10: The Carnage of the Quick Picks
Note to self: never make quick picks again. I went a stunning 3-11 this week, the highlight of which was missing on each and every early game. Clearly I need to actually put thought into the picks.
Week 9 Correct Picks: Denver, Giants, Baltimore,
Week 9 Incorrect Picks: Bills, Cowboys, Colts (Upset 5-4), Chiefs, Bucs, Redskins, Cleveland, Titans, Rams, Chargers, Eagles
Week 9 Record: 3-11
Overall: 62-61-7
Week 10 Picks
Raiders at Chargers (SD by 7): No McFadden, and the Chargers finally started to look like a good team last week. It was like they clicked into gear or something. I'll take San Diego here.
Saints at Falcons (NO by 1): I wrote off Atlanta earlier this year, and I'm not quite ready to pencil them back into being real yet. So I'll take NO.
Steelers at Bengals (Pit by 3): Hard to know what to make of the Bengals. Ultimately, I think they are a schedule fraud, and I'll take Pittsburgh.
Rams at Browns (Cle by 3): I desperately want to pick against Cleveland, but the safe money is to not bet on NFC west teams that don't rhyme with "Fan Trancisco." So I'll pick Cleveland...
Bills at Cowboys (Dal by 6): I like Dallas to bounce back here and shut down Fred Jackson, so I'll take Dallas.
Jaguars at Colts (Jac by 3): Indy has some breathing room in the Luck sweepstakes now; so all they have to do is not screw up and win here. I do predict a close game though, so I'll pick Indy.
Broncos at Chiefs (KC by 4): Weird game. Not sure what to think. Will take KC; Arrowhead should rattle Tebow much like Ford Field did.
Redskins at Dolphins (Mia by 4): Unsure of either of these teams. So in that case, I'll guess Washington keeps it close?
Cardinals at Eagles (No line): No line (Kolb?), but I'll take Philly.
Texans at Bucs (Hou by 4): I'm so uneasy about supporting Houston. They're a good team with deep flaws that will crumble when they meet any of the AFC powerhouses in the playoffs. I'm gonna take the Bucs as my Upset.
Titans at Panthers (Car by 4): I like CJ to finally get out of his funk here, and for Ten to win.
Ravens at Seahawks (Bal by 7): Quest stadium trap game. I'll take the Seahawks.
Lions at Bears (Chi by 3):
Giants at 49ers (SF by 3): If the NYG win this game, they get to be Number 2 in everyone's power rankings, right? I think the Giants will finally unnerve Alex Smith, and I'll Lock it in.
Patriots at Jets (NYJ by 1): Great game, great rivalry. Strangely, Rex Ryan has been silent(!) this week. I'll be taking the Patriots, as I'm not ready to believe Belichick and Brady will lose 3 straight grudge matches.
Vikings at Packers (GB by 14): Can't pick against GB, but 14 points is awfully high... And haven't the Vikes been playing well? Aw, I'll take the Vikes.
Fantasy Review
I can retire happy in Fantasy Football now. No, I haven't won a league yet. But I did beat my good friend who knows way more about football than me... Dave Morgan. Final Score? 121.12 to 121.06. I beat Dave by 6/10ths of a yard. Stunning.
Week 9 Correct Picks: Denver, Giants, Baltimore,
Week 9 Incorrect Picks: Bills, Cowboys, Colts (Upset 5-4), Chiefs, Bucs, Redskins, Cleveland, Titans, Rams, Chargers, Eagles
Week 9 Record: 3-11
Overall: 62-61-7
Week 10 Picks
Raiders at Chargers (SD by 7): No McFadden, and the Chargers finally started to look like a good team last week. It was like they clicked into gear or something. I'll take San Diego here.
Saints at Falcons (NO by 1): I wrote off Atlanta earlier this year, and I'm not quite ready to pencil them back into being real yet. So I'll take NO.
Steelers at Bengals (Pit by 3): Hard to know what to make of the Bengals. Ultimately, I think they are a schedule fraud, and I'll take Pittsburgh.
Rams at Browns (Cle by 3): I desperately want to pick against Cleveland, but the safe money is to not bet on NFC west teams that don't rhyme with "Fan Trancisco." So I'll pick Cleveland...
Bills at Cowboys (Dal by 6): I like Dallas to bounce back here and shut down Fred Jackson, so I'll take Dallas.
Jaguars at Colts (Jac by 3): Indy has some breathing room in the Luck sweepstakes now; so all they have to do is not screw up and win here. I do predict a close game though, so I'll pick Indy.
Broncos at Chiefs (KC by 4): Weird game. Not sure what to think. Will take KC; Arrowhead should rattle Tebow much like Ford Field did.
Redskins at Dolphins (Mia by 4): Unsure of either of these teams. So in that case, I'll guess Washington keeps it close?
Cardinals at Eagles (No line): No line (Kolb?), but I'll take Philly.
Texans at Bucs (Hou by 4): I'm so uneasy about supporting Houston. They're a good team with deep flaws that will crumble when they meet any of the AFC powerhouses in the playoffs. I'm gonna take the Bucs as my Upset.
Titans at Panthers (Car by 4): I like CJ to finally get out of his funk here, and for Ten to win.
Ravens at Seahawks (Bal by 7): Quest stadium trap game. I'll take the Seahawks.
Lions at Bears (Chi by 3):
Giants at 49ers (SF by 3): If the NYG win this game, they get to be Number 2 in everyone's power rankings, right? I think the Giants will finally unnerve Alex Smith, and I'll Lock it in.
Patriots at Jets (NYJ by 1): Great game, great rivalry. Strangely, Rex Ryan has been silent(!) this week. I'll be taking the Patriots, as I'm not ready to believe Belichick and Brady will lose 3 straight grudge matches.
Vikings at Packers (GB by 14): Can't pick against GB, but 14 points is awfully high... And haven't the Vikes been playing well? Aw, I'll take the Vikes.
Fantasy Review
I can retire happy in Fantasy Football now. No, I haven't won a league yet. But I did beat my good friend who knows way more about football than me... Dave Morgan. Final Score? 121.12 to 121.06. I beat Dave by 6/10ths of a yard. Stunning.
Friday, November 4, 2011
Week 9: Quick Picks
Week 8 Correct Picks: Titans, Miami (Upset 5-3), Buffalo, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Philly,
Week 8 Correct Picks: New Orleans, Minnesota, Ravens (Lock 4-4-1), San Francisco, Cincinnati, Chiefs
Week 8 Push: Houston
Week 8 Review: 6-6-1
Year Thus Far: 59-50-7
Week 9 Picks:
Bills +2
Dallas +12
Colts -8 (Upset)
Chiefs +5
Bucs -9
Washington -4
Cleveland -11
Titans +3
Denver -9
Giants -9
Rams -2
Chargers -6
Bal -4
Eagles +8
I may have my plusses and minuses mixed up, but those are my picks.
Fantasy:
Still doing well, but I have another big divisional game against Dave this week, and I just traded my mvp - McFadden. Picked up Mendenhall and a good backup QB in Matt Schaub.
Week 8 Correct Picks: New Orleans, Minnesota, Ravens (Lock 4-4-1), San Francisco, Cincinnati, Chiefs
Week 8 Push: Houston
Week 8 Review: 6-6-1
Year Thus Far: 59-50-7
Week 9 Picks:
Bills +2
Dallas +12
Colts -8 (Upset)
Chiefs +5
Bucs -9
Washington -4
Cleveland -11
Titans +3
Denver -9
Giants -9
Rams -2
Chargers -6
Bal -4
Eagles +8
I may have my plusses and minuses mixed up, but those are my picks.
Fantasy:
Still doing well, but I have another big divisional game against Dave this week, and I just traded my mvp - McFadden. Picked up Mendenhall and a good backup QB in Matt Schaub.
Monday, October 24, 2011
Week 8: SeeSawing through the picks
Prepare for a week of seesaw games. Good teams lost bad, and bad teams lost bad, and thus some of these lines may be jacked.
Week 7 Correct Picks: Atlanta, Denver, Carolina, Pittsburgh (Lock 4-2-1), Minnesota, New Orleans,
Week 7 Incorrect Picks: Tennesee, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Oakland, St Louis (Upset 4-3), Baltimore
Week 7 Push: Cleveland
Week 7 Record: 6-6-1
Record Thus Far: 53-44-6
Week 8 Picks
Colts at Titans (Ten by 9): Two teams that were embarassed last week, but only one that can do something about it. I'll take Tennessee.
Saints at Rams (NO by 14): Sean Payton is a classy guy. After going ahead by 40 points, the Saints just ran, no passes. They weren't trying to run up the score. But, I'll stick with New Orleans again.
Dolphins at Giants (NYG by 10): This is a classic "did we learn anything" game. The Giants are favored at home by 10 to a crappy team. Just like Seattle two weeks ago. And I'm no sucker, so I'll take Miami as my upset. Geez...
Vikings at Panthers (Car by 4): I liked Ponder last week, but I think he'll regress a little here and Carolina will win.
Cardinals at Ravens (Bal by 13): Angry hornets. Thats what I imagine the defense of Baltimore will be like this week. I don't imagine that Cardinals will get points, so I will take Baltimore as the lock. As a side note, here's what I wrote about Bal/Jac:
"This feels like a classic Flacco crap game, doesn't it? Don't they always have one or two losses that leave everyone scratching their head and wondering what the heck happened? But even then... I'm not brave enough to pick it, so I'll take Baltimore."
Jaguars at Texans (Hou by 10): Chicken and the egg: was Jacksonville's defense that good, or was Baltimore's offense that bad? I think it was mostly Baltimores offense, and I think Houston will win here, and by 10.
Redskins at Bills (Buf by 6): I'm off the Washington train. Bills!
Lions at Broncos (Lions by 3): For the first time here, I will pick the Lions. I don't think Tebow will do well against the Lions defense.
Patriots at Steelers (Pats by 3): The Patriots always win against the Steelers, but I don't like them here. I think if they win it will be by a little, so I'll take Pittsburgh.
Browns at 49ers (SF by 9): I watched a ton of that Cleveland/Seattle game because I'm a sadist. I think SF wins here, but I'm concerned that this will be a crappy Alex Smith game, so I'm not giving them 9 points.
Bengals at Seahawks (Cin by 3): I'll pick Seattle (shudder). It's a home game, and that's a 5 point swing in favor of Seattle.
Cowboys at Eagles (Phi by 4): Tough game to pick. I think I'll take Philadelphia (home team).
Chargers at Chiefs (SD by 4): There's still a lot of talk about Kansas City winning this game outright and taking a share of the division lead. I don't think so. San Diego is better than they've been trending, and Kansas City isn't as good as they've been trending. I'll take SD.
Fantasy Review
Go Lions: I scored 64 points last week... and won. Going into Monday Night, I was ahead by 6 points with no players left, and my opponent had Ray Rice left. I was ecstatic about the Baltimore loss. Currently, my record is 5-2 which is second in the Barry Sanders division.
Emerald City Eight: Won my last game, for a record of 4-3. I'm in fourth place.
CRISTABall: Lost badly, for a record of 4-2. I'm third in my division, but both people ahead of me have played one more divisional games.
Week 7 Correct Picks: Atlanta, Denver, Carolina, Pittsburgh (Lock 4-2-1), Minnesota, New Orleans,
Week 7 Incorrect Picks: Tennesee, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Oakland, St Louis (Upset 4-3), Baltimore
Week 7 Push: Cleveland
Week 7 Record: 6-6-1
Record Thus Far: 53-44-6
Week 8 Picks
Colts at Titans (Ten by 9): Two teams that were embarassed last week, but only one that can do something about it. I'll take Tennessee.
Saints at Rams (NO by 14): Sean Payton is a classy guy. After going ahead by 40 points, the Saints just ran, no passes. They weren't trying to run up the score. But, I'll stick with New Orleans again.
Dolphins at Giants (NYG by 10): This is a classic "did we learn anything" game. The Giants are favored at home by 10 to a crappy team. Just like Seattle two weeks ago. And I'm no sucker, so I'll take Miami as my upset. Geez...
Vikings at Panthers (Car by 4): I liked Ponder last week, but I think he'll regress a little here and Carolina will win.
Cardinals at Ravens (Bal by 13): Angry hornets. Thats what I imagine the defense of Baltimore will be like this week. I don't imagine that Cardinals will get points, so I will take Baltimore as the lock. As a side note, here's what I wrote about Bal/Jac:
"This feels like a classic Flacco crap game, doesn't it? Don't they always have one or two losses that leave everyone scratching their head and wondering what the heck happened? But even then... I'm not brave enough to pick it, so I'll take Baltimore."
Jaguars at Texans (Hou by 10): Chicken and the egg: was Jacksonville's defense that good, or was Baltimore's offense that bad? I think it was mostly Baltimores offense, and I think Houston will win here, and by 10.
Redskins at Bills (Buf by 6): I'm off the Washington train. Bills!
Lions at Broncos (Lions by 3): For the first time here, I will pick the Lions. I don't think Tebow will do well against the Lions defense.
Patriots at Steelers (Pats by 3): The Patriots always win against the Steelers, but I don't like them here. I think if they win it will be by a little, so I'll take Pittsburgh.
Browns at 49ers (SF by 9): I watched a ton of that Cleveland/Seattle game because I'm a sadist. I think SF wins here, but I'm concerned that this will be a crappy Alex Smith game, so I'm not giving them 9 points.
Bengals at Seahawks (Cin by 3): I'll pick Seattle (shudder). It's a home game, and that's a 5 point swing in favor of Seattle.
Cowboys at Eagles (Phi by 4): Tough game to pick. I think I'll take Philadelphia (home team).
Chargers at Chiefs (SD by 4): There's still a lot of talk about Kansas City winning this game outright and taking a share of the division lead. I don't think so. San Diego is better than they've been trending, and Kansas City isn't as good as they've been trending. I'll take SD.
Fantasy Review
Go Lions: I scored 64 points last week... and won. Going into Monday Night, I was ahead by 6 points with no players left, and my opponent had Ray Rice left. I was ecstatic about the Baltimore loss. Currently, my record is 5-2 which is second in the Barry Sanders division.
Emerald City Eight: Won my last game, for a record of 4-3. I'm in fourth place.
CRISTABall: Lost badly, for a record of 4-2. I'm third in my division, but both people ahead of me have played one more divisional games.
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Week 7: The Curse of Bobby Layne gives way to the Curse of....
Bobby Layne once famously cursed Detroit to fifty years without winning a Superbowl. That curse culminated in the 0-16 season exactly 50 years later (and no Superbowls). The Lions are now (theoretically) free of that curse... But I wonder if we aren't suffering from another, unknown curse. The Curse of... Barry Sanders.
What? The Detroit hero? The most famous Lion of all time? One of top three running backs of all time?
Yeah. Him. Since Barry unceremoniously retired after the 98 season, the Lions have had the worst run imaginable of runningbacks. I did a little statistical research (crazy, I know). Here's the summary:
Week 6 Record: 6-5-2
Record Thus Far: 47-38-5
Week 7 Picks
Seahawks at Browns (Cle by 3): Never pick the seahawks on the road.
Falcons at Lions (Det by 4): My streak was broken (It's my fault; I forgot to wear my lucky red wings hat), so I'm no longer constrained to picking against Detroit. However, I still have a bad feeling about this matchup and will take Atl.
Texans at Titans (Ten by 3): I believe in Matt Hasselbeck... Uh, what? Eh, he's my quarterback this week in one league (wait til you hear who my other quarterback is!). I think Tennessee handles this and vaults into the front running for the AFC South.
Broncos at Dolphins (Mia by 2): The first Suck-for-Luck game. Tebow isn't going to give up, but Miami is actively going to. I'll take Denver.
Chargers at Jets (SD by 2): At New York, huh. I don't know what to make of these two teams. New York (and Sanchez) have looked horrible. But San Diego and Philips have not been outstanding. I guess I'll take San Diego here.
Bears at Buccaneers (Chi by 1): Um, totally ridiculous line. I like Tampa Here.
Redskins at Panthers (Car by 3): John Beck alert! Time to bench your Santana Moss's (why were you playing him anyway?) and start anyone else. I'll take Carolina even if Cam let me down last week.
Chiefs at Raiders (Oak by 4): I like the Raiders this year. I don't have any idea what Palmer will do for them; but I do know that he's going to give it to McFadden 40 times this game, and that should be good enough to beat the Chiefs by a lot. I would lock this game, but I did that with Oakland last week, so I'll pick a different team.
Steelers at Cardinals (Pit by 4): Ooh, here's a good Lock. Pittsburgh, and do we see a Kevin Kolb benching? I think maybe we do!
Rams at Cowboys (Dal by 13): I don't like Dallas to beat anyone by 13, so I guess St Louis is my Upset. Wait, what? They're an NFC west team... But I'm going to stick with it.
Packers at Vikings (GB by 9): It's at Minnesota and I think it will be close. I'll take Minnesota.
Colts at Saints (NO by 14): The other Suck-For-Luck team is Indy. I think Indy will be better at hiding it than Miami (to avoid the inevitable crapstorm that will brew), but I still think they get blown out here by an angry New Orleans team.
Ravens at Jaguars (Bal by 8): This feels like a classic Flacco crap game, doesn't it? Don't they always have one or two losses that leave everyone scratching their head and wondering what the heck happened? But even then... I'm not brave enough to pick it, so I'll take Baltimore.
Fantasy Review
Went 2-0 this past weekend. The big news of the week? Eli Manning is on a bye for my CRISTABall league, so I went to the waiver wire.
And yes. I picked him up.
Go Tim Tebow.
What? The Detroit hero? The most famous Lion of all time? One of top three running backs of all time?
Yeah. Him. Since Barry unceremoniously retired after the 98 season, the Lions have had the worst run imaginable of runningbacks. I did a little statistical research (crazy, I know). Here's the summary:
- Since 98 (where Barry finished 4th), the highest a Detroit running back has finished in yards gained is 14th, by James Stewart in 2000.
- Since 98, our leading rusher has been on average the 27th best rusher (26.5 to be exact).
I don't think the blame can be entirely on the offensive line, either. We've had some success in passing - Jon Kitna, for crying out loud - but never anything in the running game. Additionally, we have been drafting so high for a few years that I'm willing to bet that any of the top 10 runningbacks this year went behind our other draft picks. Detroit just doesn't do well with runningbacks any more.
And now we find out that Jahvid Best may be done for the year and we have traded for... Ronnie Brown. He of the goal line fumble a few weeks ago against San Fran.
Somehow I don't expect the curse to break anytime soon. Are we to expect 50 years of futility on the ground?
Week 6 Correct Picks: Bengals, 49ers, Packers, Eagles, Bucs (Upset: 4-2), Jets
Week 6 Incorrect Picks: Panthers, Steelers, Ravens, Patriots, Minnesota
Week 6 Push: Giants, Raiders (Lock: 3-2-1). I count the NYG pick as a moral victory.Week 6 Record: 6-5-2
Record Thus Far: 47-38-5
Week 7 Picks
Seahawks at Browns (Cle by 3): Never pick the seahawks on the road.
Falcons at Lions (Det by 4): My streak was broken (It's my fault; I forgot to wear my lucky red wings hat), so I'm no longer constrained to picking against Detroit. However, I still have a bad feeling about this matchup and will take Atl.
Texans at Titans (Ten by 3): I believe in Matt Hasselbeck... Uh, what? Eh, he's my quarterback this week in one league (wait til you hear who my other quarterback is!). I think Tennessee handles this and vaults into the front running for the AFC South.
Broncos at Dolphins (Mia by 2): The first Suck-for-Luck game. Tebow isn't going to give up, but Miami is actively going to. I'll take Denver.
Chargers at Jets (SD by 2): At New York, huh. I don't know what to make of these two teams. New York (and Sanchez) have looked horrible. But San Diego and Philips have not been outstanding. I guess I'll take San Diego here.
Bears at Buccaneers (Chi by 1): Um, totally ridiculous line. I like Tampa Here.
Redskins at Panthers (Car by 3): John Beck alert! Time to bench your Santana Moss's (why were you playing him anyway?) and start anyone else. I'll take Carolina even if Cam let me down last week.
Chiefs at Raiders (Oak by 4): I like the Raiders this year. I don't have any idea what Palmer will do for them; but I do know that he's going to give it to McFadden 40 times this game, and that should be good enough to beat the Chiefs by a lot. I would lock this game, but I did that with Oakland last week, so I'll pick a different team.
Steelers at Cardinals (Pit by 4): Ooh, here's a good Lock. Pittsburgh, and do we see a Kevin Kolb benching? I think maybe we do!
Rams at Cowboys (Dal by 13): I don't like Dallas to beat anyone by 13, so I guess St Louis is my Upset. Wait, what? They're an NFC west team... But I'm going to stick with it.
Packers at Vikings (GB by 9): It's at Minnesota and I think it will be close. I'll take Minnesota.
Colts at Saints (NO by 14): The other Suck-For-Luck team is Indy. I think Indy will be better at hiding it than Miami (to avoid the inevitable crapstorm that will brew), but I still think they get blown out here by an angry New Orleans team.
Ravens at Jaguars (Bal by 8): This feels like a classic Flacco crap game, doesn't it? Don't they always have one or two losses that leave everyone scratching their head and wondering what the heck happened? But even then... I'm not brave enough to pick it, so I'll take Baltimore.
Fantasy Review
Went 2-0 this past weekend. The big news of the week? Eli Manning is on a bye for my CRISTABall league, so I went to the waiver wire.
And yes. I picked him up.
Go Tim Tebow.
Monday, October 10, 2011
Week 6: Some Rules Emerge
I've discovered a few things this year, and have developed a new rule system for how to pick games against the spread. Here's the new set of rules (listed in descending order of importance (so the last rule trumps rules before it)).
4. Cam Newton covers spreads.
3. Don't back the NFC West on the road.
2. If you think the Giants should do well, pick the other team. If they should do poorly, pick the Giants.
1. Continue to pick against the Lions until they lose (don't break the streak).
Week 5 Incorrect Picks: Philadelphia, Seattle, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Chicago
Week 5 Push: New England
Week 5 Record: 7-5-1
Year Thus Far: 41-33-3
Week 6 Picks:
Panthers at Falcons (ATL by 4): See above and take Carolina.
Colts at Bengals (CIN by 7): Cincinnati has a really good defense, who should cover this spread themselves.
49ers at Lions (Det by 5): See Rule 1 above. I pick San Fran.
St Louis at Green Bay (GB by 16): A few things warring in me here: don't back crappy nfc west teams on the road... but sixteen points is a lot. Green Bay only blew out one team this year, Denver. Is St Louis worse than Denver...? Yes. Green Bay then.
Bills at Giants (NYG by 3): It seems like the Bills are the better team, so I'll take New York.
Jaguars at Steelers (PIT by 13): A really good defense will always super trump an inept offense. Pittsburgh.
Eagles at Redskins (PHI by 2): You know once I stop picking the Eagles or when I sit Vick in fantasy they'll explode for a game they're due for. The Eagles are definitely last years Cowboys; I don't think they have any respect for Reid left. But I'll give them one more try, and take them here. If they don't pull it off here, I'm off the Eagles Train completely.
Browns at Raiders (OAK by 7): Oakland would be the ultimate flip-flop team if not for NYG. But I rather like this matchup, and McFadden should be due for another monster. I'll take the Raiders as my Lock.
Texans at Ravens (BAL by 8): Injuries mounting for the Texans. Sidenote: only in sports can you use the phrase "mounting" and it's not inappropriate. Unless we are talking about Roethlisberger. I like Baltimore in this game, but I don't like them by 8 points.
Cowboys at Patriots (NE by 7): I love it when the Ryan brothers open their mouth and get proved wrong like the idiots they are. Latest example is that the Dallas defense will be bringing the "kitchen sink" to stop Brady. Uh, no. I'll bet that doesn't work and Dallas gets blown out.
Saints at Bucs (NO by 4): Since I like the Bucs to rebound and keep this one close, they are my Upset.
Vikings at Bears (CHI by 3): Intrigueing battle of has-beens in the NFC North. McNabb versus Cutler... It's Sunday Night Football on NBC! I'll take Minnesota.
Dolphins at Jets (NYJ by 7): This is an interesting upset pick. But how far can you ride the Jets downfall? They should win here by a lot, but Miami does weird things in games sometimes.
Fantasy Review:
CRISTABall - I am a wrecking ball in this league, and now I get Aaron Hernandez back! (Bye Tony Scheffler). I won 140-30 this week, and am on a bye this week. This has to be the weirdest scoring fantasy league I've ever been in; Eli Manning had 52 points this week. Also, byes in fantasy? Weird.
Go Lions - Hope is fading quickly. Too many disappointments (Vick, Jackson) to outweigh the brightspots (McFadden, Gonzalez). I lost pretty badly to Dave last week, and half of my team is apparently on a bye this week. We'll see if I can waiver up some replacements.
Emerald City Eight - What an exhilariting ride this league has been... But I'm probably done for here. I lost this week, in the most maddening way... I had two remaining players (Stafford and the Lions D/ST). Stafford gets me just enough points to be two points ahead of the team I'm playing (122-120 at this point), and then the Lions stop throwing all together and go to Jahvid Best to grind out the clock. If Stafford gets 10 more yards, I get a point and probably win. Instead... they punt, and Chicago racks up 90 garbage yards (or however long that last drive was) and I lost 119-120. Unbelievable.
But hey, the Lions still win, so there!
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
Week 5: The NFL punishes fans because?
Last week, I got super excited. As I was watching the Seattle game, they advertised that Detroit-Dallas was the game of the week in the early slot on Fox. Seattle was playing in the late slot. I assumed this meant that I would finally get to see the Lions! I caught 45 seconds of the end of the Minnesota game (3 downs: false start by Backus, false start by Backus, sack allowed by Backus), but other than that I've been living on highlights.
Imagine my confusion then when Fox turns off football and goes to infomercials. That's right. Instead of the game of the week, I would have to watch infomercials.
There are some seriously archaic rules when it comes to broadcasting NFL games - for example, when the Seahawks are playing at home, other channels can't play other games during the same time frame! Apparently you are only allowed to support the home team.
Does the NFL realize that all this does is drive people to watch illegally? I found a live stream of the Lions game and watched that, crappy stream and all. If Roger Goodell can explain this in a way that tells me why it's important to the game that I can't watch Detroit, please do so.
Week 4 Correct Picks: Carolina, Tennessee (Upset 2-2), New Orleans, New York Giants, New England (Lock 2-2), San Diego, Tampa Bay
Week 4 Incorrect Picks: Buffalo, Dallas, Minnesota, St Louis, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Denver, New York Jets,
Week 4: 7-9
Year thus Far: 34-28-2
Week 5 Games:
Eagles at Bills (Phi by 3): Weird line, based on the records. Vegas is still just a little too in love with Philly. Still... I like Philly to turn things around a bit here and steal this one in Buffalo.
Chiefs at Colts (Ind by 3): Another strange line. We're saying these two teams are basically even, huh? I don't know. I like the Chiefs as my upset.
Cardinals at Vikings (Min by 3): If Min is going to win one, has to be here, right? Plus, don't take NFC west teams on the road. I'll even dare destiny and take an 0-4 team as my lock.
Seahawks at Giants (NYG by 10): Don't take NFC west teams on the road. Just don't.
Titans at Steelers (Pit by 4): Thursday Update: Forgot to write anything about this game. Maybe because I don't like the idea of picking either team. Anyway, I like Tennesee.
Saints at Panthers (NO by 7): You can throw on New Orleans, and Cam Newton can cover a spread. I'll take Carolina.
Bengals at Jaguars (Jac by 2): Gross game. I'll take the home team, but I don't feel good about it.
Oakland at Houston (Hou by 6): I don't know that Houston will have as much success running on Oakland as they did Pittsburgh. But I think McFadden will have some decent success. So I like Oakland.
Buccanneers at 49ers (SF by 2): I want to talk myself into not liking San Francisco... But I think the smart money here is on SF. Tampa Bay coming across the country on a short week spells trouble.
Chargers at Broncos (SD by 4): It's like Philip Rivers is messing with me. The spread was 9 last week, and they won by 10. Barely. I think we'll finally see a San Diego blowout.
Jets at Patriots (NE by 9): Dear lord, I'm taking the Jets. Gulp. I think they are a little better than they played the last two weeks, and they always play New England hard. I think it will be a close one though.
Packers at Falcons (GB by 6): I can't for the life of me pick a team that should have lost to Seattle. Atlanta made a old-time-lions mistake at the end which would have been the talk of the league had they lost (well, after the Dallas talk anyway). It was a 3rd and medium just after the two minute warning. Seattle had one timeout left and was down by 2. If Atlanta just rushes here, they guarantee that Seattle has to use their timeout - regardless of whether Atlanta gets the first down. Instead, they threw it, incomplete, and Seattle got the ball back with plenty of time and a timeout remaining. If Tarvaris Jackson wasn't so inept, ATL would have lost because of that play. And thus, I pick the Packers.
Bears at Lions (Det by 6): I actually don't think I would pick the Lions this week even if I hadn't sworn to keep picking against them (as a reverse-jinx). I think there will be a lot of pressure for playing on Monday night; and I think it will be close. So I'll take Chicago hear, but only because I think Detroit will only win by 3. 27-24 final score. Oh, and for the love of God, don't kick it to Hester.
Fantasy Review:
Bleh. Went 1-2 this week; Henderson threw goose eggs in two leagues for me - the same two leagues I ended up playing against Forte. I did win in the Go Lions League to stay even with the top of my division. Have a big division showdown against Dave this week.
Imagine my confusion then when Fox turns off football and goes to infomercials. That's right. Instead of the game of the week, I would have to watch infomercials.
There are some seriously archaic rules when it comes to broadcasting NFL games - for example, when the Seahawks are playing at home, other channels can't play other games during the same time frame! Apparently you are only allowed to support the home team.
Does the NFL realize that all this does is drive people to watch illegally? I found a live stream of the Lions game and watched that, crappy stream and all. If Roger Goodell can explain this in a way that tells me why it's important to the game that I can't watch Detroit, please do so.
Week 4 Correct Picks: Carolina, Tennessee (Upset 2-2), New Orleans, New York Giants, New England (Lock 2-2), San Diego, Tampa Bay
Week 4 Incorrect Picks: Buffalo, Dallas, Minnesota, St Louis, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Denver, New York Jets,
Week 4: 7-9
Year thus Far: 34-28-2
Week 5 Games:
Eagles at Bills (Phi by 3): Weird line, based on the records. Vegas is still just a little too in love with Philly. Still... I like Philly to turn things around a bit here and steal this one in Buffalo.
Chiefs at Colts (Ind by 3): Another strange line. We're saying these two teams are basically even, huh? I don't know. I like the Chiefs as my upset.
Cardinals at Vikings (Min by 3): If Min is going to win one, has to be here, right? Plus, don't take NFC west teams on the road. I'll even dare destiny and take an 0-4 team as my lock.
Seahawks at Giants (NYG by 10): Don't take NFC west teams on the road. Just don't.
Titans at Steelers (Pit by 4): Thursday Update: Forgot to write anything about this game. Maybe because I don't like the idea of picking either team. Anyway, I like Tennesee.
Saints at Panthers (NO by 7): You can throw on New Orleans, and Cam Newton can cover a spread. I'll take Carolina.
Bengals at Jaguars (Jac by 2): Gross game. I'll take the home team, but I don't feel good about it.
Oakland at Houston (Hou by 6): I don't know that Houston will have as much success running on Oakland as they did Pittsburgh. But I think McFadden will have some decent success. So I like Oakland.
Buccanneers at 49ers (SF by 2): I want to talk myself into not liking San Francisco... But I think the smart money here is on SF. Tampa Bay coming across the country on a short week spells trouble.
Chargers at Broncos (SD by 4): It's like Philip Rivers is messing with me. The spread was 9 last week, and they won by 10. Barely. I think we'll finally see a San Diego blowout.
Jets at Patriots (NE by 9): Dear lord, I'm taking the Jets. Gulp. I think they are a little better than they played the last two weeks, and they always play New England hard. I think it will be a close one though.
Packers at Falcons (GB by 6): I can't for the life of me pick a team that should have lost to Seattle. Atlanta made a old-time-lions mistake at the end which would have been the talk of the league had they lost (well, after the Dallas talk anyway). It was a 3rd and medium just after the two minute warning. Seattle had one timeout left and was down by 2. If Atlanta just rushes here, they guarantee that Seattle has to use their timeout - regardless of whether Atlanta gets the first down. Instead, they threw it, incomplete, and Seattle got the ball back with plenty of time and a timeout remaining. If Tarvaris Jackson wasn't so inept, ATL would have lost because of that play. And thus, I pick the Packers.
Bears at Lions (Det by 6): I actually don't think I would pick the Lions this week even if I hadn't sworn to keep picking against them (as a reverse-jinx). I think there will be a lot of pressure for playing on Monday night; and I think it will be close. So I'll take Chicago hear, but only because I think Detroit will only win by 3. 27-24 final score. Oh, and for the love of God, don't kick it to Hester.
Fantasy Review:
Bleh. Went 1-2 this week; Henderson threw goose eggs in two leagues for me - the same two leagues I ended up playing against Forte. I did win in the Go Lions League to stay even with the top of my division. Have a big division showdown against Dave this week.
Saturday, October 1, 2011
NFL Update:
Go to this webpage.
Here are the unanimous picks:
Chicago over Carolina
Philadelphia over San Fran
New Orleans over Jacksonville
Atlanta over Seattle
Green Bay over Denver
San Diego over Miami
Baltimore over New York
Houston over Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay over Indianapolis
Nine games the experts all picked the same. The experts seem to be picking about 2/3rds of games correct, so we can probably imagine 3 of these picks will be wrong. What scares me is I only disagree in one place - Pitt over Houston is my pick. New York over Baltimore is probably the other best bet, but I still like Baltimore. So what other two teams would you pick to be upset?
Friday, September 30, 2011
What?
I don't even know what to say:
Former Mars Hill Pastor teams up with Former Lost Showrunner to create new spiritual tv series.
Former Mars Hill Pastor teams up with Former Lost Showrunner to create new spiritual tv series.
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Week 4: 85 Million Years Ago, Detroit and Buffalo also went 3-0
I watched Terra Nova last night, and enjoyed it. I'm a sucker for dinosaurs. That being said, there is one gigantic plot hole I noticed. If the time travel portal/fracture thing is a one way trip to a different universe, how did they discover it? It's not like Stephen Lang could send back a notice that "hey, it's okay, just send some dino-repellent," - it's a one way trip!
Are there similar plot holes in the remaining 3-0 teams? Sure.
Green Bay - Green Bay is winning, most assuredly. But they haven't actually put a team away yet. New Orleans had a chance to win; Carolina kept it worringly close; and Chicago would have been threatening if not for a phantom holding call on that amazing punt return play. Once Green Bay has a 14 point lead, they seem to fall asleep. Keep an eye on Kyle Orton keeping the game close this week.
Detroit - Detroit is 3-0 for the first time since 1980. But the opponents they've beaten are 2-7. Let's not jump out of our seats yet. Dallas should post a good challenge - after all, Dallas has as many wins as the total of the Lions opponents through three weeks.
Buffalo - Buffalo biggest problem is their hype. They (by benefit of beating the Patriots) are the most hyped team in the league right now (which leaves Detroit feeling good). Oh, and they haven't played a defense yet.
Let's move on to the Week 3 Review:
Week 3 Correct Picks: Buffalo, San Fran, Miami, Minnesota, Carolina, Oakland, Baltimore, Green Bay, Seattle, Tampa Bay,
Week 3 Incorrect Picks: Tennessee, Houston (Upset 1-2), Philadelphia, San Diego, Pittsburgh (Lock 1-2), Washington
Week 3: 10-6
Season So Far: 27-19-2
Week 4 Games:
Carolina at Chicago (Chi by 7): We'll read all week long about how Chicago will be going to a more rush oriented offense... and then they're going to throw 90% of the time. I like Cam Newton to keep it close.
Buffalo at Cincinnati (Buf by 3): This has the makings of a classic letdown game; but can you imagine Cincy keeping within 3 of Buffalo's offense? I'll take Buffalo here.
Tennessee at Cleveland (Cle by 1): Wow, Cleveland by 1? Interesting line here. I was all prepared to take Tennessee for quite awhile (and even pick up Matt Hasselbeck in at least one league), but the injury to Britt has scared me off for a little bit. Cleveland is at home, but I can't help but think is the game where CJ takes off. I'll pick Ten as my upset.
Detroit at Dallas (Dal by 2): Last week, I vowed to keep picking against Detroit as long as they were winning, because I'm superstitious. Well, because ESPN.com had the line at 4 for Detroit, I actually made my pick last week. However, I have to keep the streak going and pick Dallas here.
Minnesota at Kansas City (Min by 2): Minnesota and Kansas City - the two unluckiest teams of 2011? Minnesota can hang with good teams in the first half; and I don't think KC is up to mounting a comeback. Although how amazing would it be if Minny bungled another double digit lead? I take Min here anyway.
Washington at St Louis (N/A): I can't find the line for this game, or it's a pick em. Can't quite tell. I like St Louis, because they're at home and in desperation mode.
San Francisco at Philadelphia (N/A): No line, obviously. Either way, take Philadelphia. Just imagine poor Alex Smith trying to throw against Samuel, Asomugha, Rodgers-Cromartie. Not a pretty sight.
New Orleans at Jacksonville (NO by 8): Good line. I like New Orleans in this matchup; ten points feels like an easy score to win by. Gabbert may have a surprisingly good day - 240 yards, 2 tds, 2 picks is my guess.
Pittsburgh at Houston (Hou by 4): I'm a subscriber in the "Houston is a tease" philosophy. Once Pitt wins here, the frantic "Could Houston really have suckered us in again?" blogs will appear.
NY Giants at Arizona (NYG by 1): Don't pick NFC west teams. NYG.
Atlanta at Seattle (ATL by 6): Two contrary impulses in me regarding this game: Seattle wins at home by an average of 5-6 points. But last week they won because Arizona missed two field goals. Tarvaris Jackson couldn't do anything against Arizona's pass coverage - which was horrendous! Here's a new rule: don't back NFC West teams unless they're playing another NFC West team. So I'll take Atlanta.
Denver at Green Bay (GB by 13): Green Bay hasn't put anyone away yet. Kyle Orton isn't bad, and the Bronco's should be able to manage a back door cover.
New England at Oakland (NE by 5): Man, Darren McFadden is looking awesome! I have him in two leagues, and he's pretty much winning me games by himself. New England is probably just a bit embarassed right now, and Oakland a little full of themselves, so I'll take New England as my Lock.
Miami at San Diego (SD by 9): When is Philip Rivers going to singlehandedly start his MVP campaign? I tell you what - if he doesn't blow out Miami here, I'm writing off the MVP and also predicting San Diego's under for the rest of the year. One more chance, Rivers. And no, I'm not bitter that I have your receivers on all of my fantasy teams.
NY Jets at Baltimore (Bal by 4): I'm a little too partial to Baltimore and a little too biased against NY. I like Baltimore to win here, but NY to cover.
Indianapolis at Tampa Bay (TB by 10): Tampa isn't the type of team to blow out another team. So I'm taking the under; ten points is about 4 points too high for me.
Fantasy Review:
CRISTAball: 103-59 victory. In such a thin league, one superstar like Darren McFadden makes quite a difference.
Emerald City Eight: I guessed right that Gates wasn't playing and signed Fred Davis. Didn't end up needing him; as I won by 20 points anyway. I'm not proud, as my opponents highest two scorers were his kicker and his defense. Should I start Fred Jackson over MJD for week 4?
Go Lions: Solid 30 point win here, despite Vick. I have my toughest matchup so far, against 3-0 Iron City. I have some gaping holes in my lineup - I only have 3 starting running backs, and one of them is Joseph Addai. Also, my QB's are Vick and Bradford, so thing's don't look great there. I'm hoping to snooker a sucker into a trade. I don't know what those words mean.
Are there similar plot holes in the remaining 3-0 teams? Sure.
Green Bay - Green Bay is winning, most assuredly. But they haven't actually put a team away yet. New Orleans had a chance to win; Carolina kept it worringly close; and Chicago would have been threatening if not for a phantom holding call on that amazing punt return play. Once Green Bay has a 14 point lead, they seem to fall asleep. Keep an eye on Kyle Orton keeping the game close this week.
Detroit - Detroit is 3-0 for the first time since 1980. But the opponents they've beaten are 2-7. Let's not jump out of our seats yet. Dallas should post a good challenge - after all, Dallas has as many wins as the total of the Lions opponents through three weeks.
Buffalo - Buffalo biggest problem is their hype. They (by benefit of beating the Patriots) are the most hyped team in the league right now (which leaves Detroit feeling good). Oh, and they haven't played a defense yet.
Let's move on to the Week 3 Review:
Week 3 Correct Picks: Buffalo, San Fran, Miami, Minnesota, Carolina, Oakland, Baltimore, Green Bay, Seattle, Tampa Bay,
Week 3 Incorrect Picks: Tennessee, Houston (Upset 1-2), Philadelphia, San Diego, Pittsburgh (Lock 1-2), Washington
Week 3: 10-6
Season So Far: 27-19-2
Week 4 Games:
Carolina at Chicago (Chi by 7): We'll read all week long about how Chicago will be going to a more rush oriented offense... and then they're going to throw 90% of the time. I like Cam Newton to keep it close.
Buffalo at Cincinnati (Buf by 3): This has the makings of a classic letdown game; but can you imagine Cincy keeping within 3 of Buffalo's offense? I'll take Buffalo here.
Tennessee at Cleveland (Cle by 1): Wow, Cleveland by 1? Interesting line here. I was all prepared to take Tennessee for quite awhile (and even pick up Matt Hasselbeck in at least one league), but the injury to Britt has scared me off for a little bit. Cleveland is at home, but I can't help but think is the game where CJ takes off. I'll pick Ten as my upset.
Detroit at Dallas (Dal by 2): Last week, I vowed to keep picking against Detroit as long as they were winning, because I'm superstitious. Well, because ESPN.com had the line at 4 for Detroit, I actually made my pick last week. However, I have to keep the streak going and pick Dallas here.
Minnesota at Kansas City (Min by 2): Minnesota and Kansas City - the two unluckiest teams of 2011? Minnesota can hang with good teams in the first half; and I don't think KC is up to mounting a comeback. Although how amazing would it be if Minny bungled another double digit lead? I take Min here anyway.
Washington at St Louis (N/A): I can't find the line for this game, or it's a pick em. Can't quite tell. I like St Louis, because they're at home and in desperation mode.
San Francisco at Philadelphia (N/A): No line, obviously. Either way, take Philadelphia. Just imagine poor Alex Smith trying to throw against Samuel, Asomugha, Rodgers-Cromartie. Not a pretty sight.
New Orleans at Jacksonville (NO by 8): Good line. I like New Orleans in this matchup; ten points feels like an easy score to win by. Gabbert may have a surprisingly good day - 240 yards, 2 tds, 2 picks is my guess.
Pittsburgh at Houston (Hou by 4): I'm a subscriber in the "Houston is a tease" philosophy. Once Pitt wins here, the frantic "Could Houston really have suckered us in again?" blogs will appear.
NY Giants at Arizona (NYG by 1): Don't pick NFC west teams. NYG.
Atlanta at Seattle (ATL by 6): Two contrary impulses in me regarding this game: Seattle wins at home by an average of 5-6 points. But last week they won because Arizona missed two field goals. Tarvaris Jackson couldn't do anything against Arizona's pass coverage - which was horrendous! Here's a new rule: don't back NFC West teams unless they're playing another NFC West team. So I'll take Atlanta.
Denver at Green Bay (GB by 13): Green Bay hasn't put anyone away yet. Kyle Orton isn't bad, and the Bronco's should be able to manage a back door cover.
New England at Oakland (NE by 5): Man, Darren McFadden is looking awesome! I have him in two leagues, and he's pretty much winning me games by himself. New England is probably just a bit embarassed right now, and Oakland a little full of themselves, so I'll take New England as my Lock.
Miami at San Diego (SD by 9): When is Philip Rivers going to singlehandedly start his MVP campaign? I tell you what - if he doesn't blow out Miami here, I'm writing off the MVP and also predicting San Diego's under for the rest of the year. One more chance, Rivers. And no, I'm not bitter that I have your receivers on all of my fantasy teams.
NY Jets at Baltimore (Bal by 4): I'm a little too partial to Baltimore and a little too biased against NY. I like Baltimore to win here, but NY to cover.
Indianapolis at Tampa Bay (TB by 10): Tampa isn't the type of team to blow out another team. So I'm taking the under; ten points is about 4 points too high for me.
Fantasy Review:
CRISTAball: 103-59 victory. In such a thin league, one superstar like Darren McFadden makes quite a difference.
Emerald City Eight: I guessed right that Gates wasn't playing and signed Fred Davis. Didn't end up needing him; as I won by 20 points anyway. I'm not proud, as my opponents highest two scorers were his kicker and his defense. Should I start Fred Jackson over MJD for week 4?
Go Lions: Solid 30 point win here, despite Vick. I have my toughest matchup so far, against 3-0 Iron City. I have some gaping holes in my lineup - I only have 3 starting running backs, and one of them is Joseph Addai. Also, my QB's are Vick and Bradford, so thing's don't look great there. I'm hoping to snooker a sucker into a trade. I don't know what those words mean.
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Week 3: What do we know so far? (Hint: Nothing)
Buffalo and Detroit are both 2-0. Indy and KC are 0-2. Cam Newton has 2000 yards already, and Brady is on pace for 7500 yards.
Wait, what?
Yeah. It's that sort of season. But lest you forget... We know nothing after two weeks. We'll see what we find out this week, as there are some good barometer games.
Week 2 Correct Picks: Tennessee, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Arizona, Cincinnatti, Houston, Atlanta (upset 1-1), New York Giants
Week 2 Incorrect Picks: Oakland, Kansas City, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville (Lock 1-1), Green Bay, San Diego,
Week 2 Push: Dallas
Week 2: 8-7-1
Total: 17-13-2
Week 3 Games:
New England at Buffalo (NE by 9): I still don't know if I believe in Buffalo, but I'm picking up Fitzpatrick and playing him this week in place of Vick. And because Buffalo can score, I'm thinking New England can't quite cover this week.
San Francisco at Cincinnati (Cin by 3): Knowing my luck, this will be the game on TV, and I'll have to shoot myself. I'll take San Fran I guess.
Miami at Cleveland (Cle by 3): And if SF/Cin isn't on TV, it's a lock that this game will be. Ugh. I'll take Miami, as they are a decent road team.
Denver at Tennessee (Ten by 7): Every year there's one conference that's just weird - A beats B, who beats C, who beats A. Pretty sure it's the AFC South this year. We'll know for sure once Houston has to play Ten or Jax. For now, I'm going to pick Tennessee in this game because Denver sucks.
Detroit at Minnesota (Det by 4): Here's what I'm stuck with: I'm picking against Detroit every week from here on out. Right now they're on a streak and I won't be the one who ruins that. So I take Minnesota here.
Houston at New Orleans (NO by 4): Actually, the Houston bandwagon is pretty quiet this year. Everyone's waiting for the bottom to fall out. And sure, why not this game, right? Except that New Orleans is pretty porous when it comes to defense. So I'm thinking Houston is my Upset of the Week (and then falls apart next week).
New York Giants at Philadelphia (N/A): No line because Vick is probably out. I would imagine the line being PHI by 3 with no Vick, and by 5 or 6 with Vick. I'm taking Philly here.
Jacksonville at Carolina (Car by 4): Sure why, not. Cam Newton over Luke McCown.
New York Jets at Oakland (NY by 4): I just hate the Jets. I don't even care. Aren't they due for a stinker where Sanchez sucks? I'll take Oakland.
Baltimore at St Louis (Bal by 4): The good new is that even if St Louis starts 0-4 they'll only be a game or two behind (and they're starting 0-3).
Kansas City at San Diego (SD by 15): This has a weird trap game feel to it, in my opinion. Everyone has written off Kansas City and also penciled Philip Rivers in for the MVP. But did we all forget that San Diego can't win until November? They nearly blew it to Minnesota and then did blow it to New England. But... KC has been blown out in three or four games straight (going back to last season). I don't know. I guess I'll take San Diego and then laugh if they lose this game.
Green Bay at Chicago (GB by 4): Chicago tends to elicit these weird 10-3 games when they play Green Bay. It's like Rodgers can't quite figure them out. That being said, I like the chances that Cutler is sacked three or four times early and then spends the rest of the game giving death glares to his o-line. So I'll take Green Bay.
Arizona at Seattle (Ari by 4): Eh, I'll take Seattle here, I guess. Homefield advantage. After all, if they don't win here, aren't they going 0-16?
Atlanta at Tampa Bay (TB by 1): Josh Freeman keeps doing it. And Atlanta is coming off the big "phew" game. (Although so is Tampa). But the advantage lies with Josh Freeman over Matt Ryan.
Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (Pit by 11): Man, Pittsburgh got blessed with some pretty easy games to wash that Baltimore stink off, huh? I don't think Indy is worse than Seattle, but I don't even think Pittsburgh played that well last week. So I'll take Pittsburgh here, and throw down a Lock of the Week for it.
Washington at Dallas (N/A): No line because of the Tony Romo injury. I like Dallas a little bit here, with Romo, and lean heavily towards Washington if he doesn't play. And since he probably isn't playing, I'll stick with Washington.
Fantasy Update:
Cristaball: I won 123-100 despite the Oakland D/ST putting up -4 points. This team is certainly turning out much better than I could have hoped for. Flipping Kolb and Manning each week seems to be working - although I'll be keeping Kolb for this week against Seattle.
Go Lions: I won 133-109, despite Lloyd not playing at the last minute and netting me a goose egg. Unfortunately, even in the win, I have issues, as this is my Vick team. I'm hoping to snag Fitzpatrick off of waivers; I don't like Bradford (my backup QB's) matchup this week.
Emerald City Eight: I won quite handily - 147 to 86. This is what I imagined this team doing week one. I'm hoping that was a fluke and we'll continue to rack up a lot of points - and I like this weeks matchup with Jackson and Gates playing KC.
Wait, what?
Yeah. It's that sort of season. But lest you forget... We know nothing after two weeks. We'll see what we find out this week, as there are some good barometer games.
Week 2 Correct Picks: Tennessee, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Arizona, Cincinnatti, Houston, Atlanta (upset 1-1), New York Giants
Week 2 Incorrect Picks: Oakland, Kansas City, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville (Lock 1-1), Green Bay, San Diego,
Week 2 Push: Dallas
Week 2: 8-7-1
Total: 17-13-2
Week 3 Games:
New England at Buffalo (NE by 9): I still don't know if I believe in Buffalo, but I'm picking up Fitzpatrick and playing him this week in place of Vick. And because Buffalo can score, I'm thinking New England can't quite cover this week.
San Francisco at Cincinnati (Cin by 3): Knowing my luck, this will be the game on TV, and I'll have to shoot myself. I'll take San Fran I guess.
Miami at Cleveland (Cle by 3): And if SF/Cin isn't on TV, it's a lock that this game will be. Ugh. I'll take Miami, as they are a decent road team.
Denver at Tennessee (Ten by 7): Every year there's one conference that's just weird - A beats B, who beats C, who beats A. Pretty sure it's the AFC South this year. We'll know for sure once Houston has to play Ten or Jax. For now, I'm going to pick Tennessee in this game because Denver sucks.
Detroit at Minnesota (Det by 4): Here's what I'm stuck with: I'm picking against Detroit every week from here on out. Right now they're on a streak and I won't be the one who ruins that. So I take Minnesota here.
Houston at New Orleans (NO by 4): Actually, the Houston bandwagon is pretty quiet this year. Everyone's waiting for the bottom to fall out. And sure, why not this game, right? Except that New Orleans is pretty porous when it comes to defense. So I'm thinking Houston is my Upset of the Week (and then falls apart next week).
New York Giants at Philadelphia (N/A): No line because Vick is probably out. I would imagine the line being PHI by 3 with no Vick, and by 5 or 6 with Vick. I'm taking Philly here.
Jacksonville at Carolina (Car by 4): Sure why, not. Cam Newton over Luke McCown.
New York Jets at Oakland (NY by 4): I just hate the Jets. I don't even care. Aren't they due for a stinker where Sanchez sucks? I'll take Oakland.
Baltimore at St Louis (Bal by 4): The good new is that even if St Louis starts 0-4 they'll only be a game or two behind (and they're starting 0-3).
Kansas City at San Diego (SD by 15): This has a weird trap game feel to it, in my opinion. Everyone has written off Kansas City and also penciled Philip Rivers in for the MVP. But did we all forget that San Diego can't win until November? They nearly blew it to Minnesota and then did blow it to New England. But... KC has been blown out in three or four games straight (going back to last season). I don't know. I guess I'll take San Diego and then laugh if they lose this game.
Green Bay at Chicago (GB by 4): Chicago tends to elicit these weird 10-3 games when they play Green Bay. It's like Rodgers can't quite figure them out. That being said, I like the chances that Cutler is sacked three or four times early and then spends the rest of the game giving death glares to his o-line. So I'll take Green Bay.
Arizona at Seattle (Ari by 4): Eh, I'll take Seattle here, I guess. Homefield advantage. After all, if they don't win here, aren't they going 0-16?
Atlanta at Tampa Bay (TB by 1): Josh Freeman keeps doing it. And Atlanta is coming off the big "phew" game. (Although so is Tampa). But the advantage lies with Josh Freeman over Matt Ryan.
Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (Pit by 11): Man, Pittsburgh got blessed with some pretty easy games to wash that Baltimore stink off, huh? I don't think Indy is worse than Seattle, but I don't even think Pittsburgh played that well last week. So I'll take Pittsburgh here, and throw down a Lock of the Week for it.
Washington at Dallas (N/A): No line because of the Tony Romo injury. I like Dallas a little bit here, with Romo, and lean heavily towards Washington if he doesn't play. And since he probably isn't playing, I'll stick with Washington.
Fantasy Update:
Cristaball: I won 123-100 despite the Oakland D/ST putting up -4 points. This team is certainly turning out much better than I could have hoped for. Flipping Kolb and Manning each week seems to be working - although I'll be keeping Kolb for this week against Seattle.
Go Lions: I won 133-109, despite Lloyd not playing at the last minute and netting me a goose egg. Unfortunately, even in the win, I have issues, as this is my Vick team. I'm hoping to snag Fitzpatrick off of waivers; I don't like Bradford (my backup QB's) matchup this week.
Emerald City Eight: I won quite handily - 147 to 86. This is what I imagined this team doing week one. I'm hoping that was a fluke and we'll continue to rack up a lot of points - and I like this weeks matchup with Jackson and Gates playing KC.
Monday, September 12, 2011
Week 2: The Gods Must be Crazy
What a strange opening weekend. I think we have no idea what the influence of the lockout will be yet; but look at this: Buffalo and Washington won handily, while Atlanta and Pittsburgh lost badly. St Louis lost not just the game but their three most important players; Green Bay might be unstoppable; and the kickoff rules still didn't help San Diego. Oh, and Indianapolis just became my favorite in the Luck-Off sweepstakes.
Speaking of the Luck-Off, I think we as an internet need to come up with a great name for the contest. When we think of the rhyming possibilities, I think we can do it.
After week one, I have decided to simplify my picks to be against the spread. Mostly because I did horrible in picking game winners. Here are my week 1 results. Note that I'm listing based on the picks I made against the spread, so I have Tennessee as a correct pick even though they lost.
Week 1 Correct Picks: Cincinnati, Buffalo, Philadelphia, Tennessee, San Francisco (lock 1-0), Washington, Dallas; Oakland; New England
Week 1 Incorrect Picks: Green Bay (upset 0-1), Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, San Diego
Arizona landed right on the spread of 7, so I get my pick back (it's called a push). Making the record 9-6-1.
On to the week 2 picks! (Tuesday Update: These lines are a little ridiculous. I'll highlight where below.)
Speaking of the Luck-Off, I think we as an internet need to come up with a great name for the contest. When we think of the rhyming possibilities, I think we can do it.
After week one, I have decided to simplify my picks to be against the spread. Mostly because I did horrible in picking game winners. Here are my week 1 results. Note that I'm listing based on the picks I made against the spread, so I have Tennessee as a correct pick even though they lost.
Week 1 Correct Picks: Cincinnati, Buffalo, Philadelphia, Tennessee, San Francisco (lock 1-0), Washington, Dallas; Oakland; New England
Week 1 Incorrect Picks: Green Bay (upset 0-1), Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, San Diego
Arizona landed right on the spread of 7, so I get my pick back (it's called a push). Making the record 9-6-1.
On to the week 2 picks! (Tuesday Update: These lines are a little ridiculous. I'll highlight where below.)
Oakland at Buffalo (Buf by 4): Buffalo looked a little too good. I don't know if I believe in that yet. Yes, I know I picked them. But I still don't trust them. Although, when in doubt, take the points. I'll take the over.
Kansas City at Detroit (Det by 9): The first insane line of the day. Detroit is favored by 9 points. Nine! I can't bring myself to that. Not yet. I'll take the under.
Baltimore at Tennessee (Bal by 7): I don't know, man. It's a home game for Tennessee, so I'll take the under here as well.
Cleveland at Indianopolis (Cle by 2): I kept seeing the bottom line scroll across on Sunday, updating me on the Houston/Indy game. Every time I saw it, Houston had scored 10 more points. Was Indy really that inept, or was Houston really that good? I think Indy rights itself a bit here and somebody finally lights that Cleveland bandwagon on fire.
Tampa Bay at Minnesota (Min by 3): I'll take the over. Minnesota nearly beat a really good San Diego team. Tampa Bay wasn't really in the Detroit game.
Chicago at New Orleans (NO by 7): One team that played better than their loss suggested, and one team that played worse than their win suggested. In both of the games week one, it all hinged on turnovers. Chicago went 5/5 on recovered fumbles, including some that frankly changed the momentum of the game. New Orleans fumbled on their first possession, which then required them to go into a shootout starting down two scores (and they still almost pulled it off). This is an easy bet - New Orleans and the over.
Jacksonville at New York (NYJ by 10): I absolutely cannot believe that the Jets won on Sunday night. They seem to do that every week - win games because the other team melts down. I swear on all that is holy that I cannot stand them. My prediction for this game: Jacksonville leads a close game, up by 4, when Luke McCown runs out the back of the end zone and tries to do a reverse Lambeau leap. On the ensuing safety punt, Jacksonville botches the punt, managing to kick it backwards, and New York capitalizes with a field goal to take a 1 point lead and win. No way I'm picking the Jets by 10. I'll take the under. And this is my lock.
Seattle at Pittsburgh (Pit by 15): Here's what I can tell you: I'm writing this first draft on Monday morning without seeing the lines, and I'm taking Pittsburgh and the over. It's a perfect storm of an embarassed good team and a crappy team led by Tarvaris Jackson on the road. If they put the spread at 20, I would still have to seriously consider Pittsburgh. Also: Fantasy MVP this week will be the Pitt D/ST. (Tuesday Update: 15 points and I'm still taking the over.)
Arizona at Washington (Was by 5): It's the redemption of Rex Grossman! I only hope that because Dave has legally agreed to rename his daughter Rex Grossman Morgan if he does well. So in that vein, I will take Wash and the over. Scratch That. Washington beat a hurting Giants. I'll take the under.
Green Bay at Carolina (GB by 11): I'm pretty sure I saw the best team in football last Thursday. And I don't think Carolina keeps up with that. Sorry, I'm taking the points.
Dallas at San Francisco (Dal by 3): Every time I saw Rob Ryan on the sidelines, I flashbacked to Arrested Development, where in Season 2 we were introduced to George Bluth Sr's twin brother Oscar Bluth. Oscar was played by the same actor in a wig. It's the exact same - we had no idea that there was a Rob Ryan until we were already sick of Rex. I'm still not 100% convinced it's not a publicity ploy and Rex isn't running both teams. I take Dallas in spite of Tony Romo.
Cincinnati at Denver (Den by 6): Really? No respect for Cincy? Didn't Denver just lose at home to Oakland, who were supposed to be terrible, while Cincy beat Cleveland at Cleveland? And wasn't Cleveland supposed to be sneaky good? I'll take Cincy here.
Houston at Miami (Hou by 3): A tad too much respect for Miami here. Do you think Henne puts together two games in a row? Me neither. Houston.
San Diego at New England (NE by 7): Great game! I think it's too close to call, and thus I'll take San Diego. I think it's a shootout, 35-33 or similar.
Philadelphia at Atlanta (Phi by 3): Maybe a great game. Certainly would have been amazing last year, but neither of these teams looked special last week. I'll take Atlanta as my upset, because I forgot to pick one until now.
St Louis at New York (NY by 6): The infamous Injury bowl! So early in the season, and all you'll hear next Monday is how beat up these two teams are. It's disappointing, but I'm ready to write off St Louis now, and anoint San Fran as the division winner (at 6-10). St Louis has a brutal schedule, and they won't be winning here. Take the over.
Fantasy Update:
Here's the frustrating thing about Fantasy: no matter how much you prepare, sometimes you just get lucky. Or unlucky. I'm writing this before the Monday night games (and will update after), but right now here's how it looking:
Go Lions: I felt good about this team going in. Right now, I'm down 6 points. I have two players left (McFadden and Lloyd), while he has three players left (Moreno, Welker, Janikowski). Could be a coin flip, although I'm obviously disadvantaged currently. Tuesday Update: I lost by 20 points.
Emerald City Eight: I've lost badly this week, unless Tom Brady doesn't get 3 fantasy points (Tuesday Update: Well, that certainly didn't happen). My team put up 80 points, total. Thats right. My murderers row first five put up 9, 2, 15, 3, and 6 points. I only had three players get to double digits - Stafford, Jones-Drew, and the Chargers D/ST. Thats right. My defense was my third most valuable player. I'm not ready to panic yet; next week should be better.
CRISTABall: And just to illustrate the randomness of Fantasy Football... I have won this game. My autodrafted horror has put up 104 points - with my #1 pick, McFadden, still left to play (as well as two other players). Eli Manning and Steve Smith combined for more points than my opponent . Unbelievable.
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Week 1: The NFL is Back... And So Am I, Baby!
I know you missed me. Life's been crazy. And I've been lazy. Let's just get right to it.
This season, I will be picking the winner of each game, as well as picking against the spread. If you don't know what the spread is, I will explain it now. Vegas predicts who will win by a point margin - so, for example, they might say "Green Bay by 3.5." Your job is to bet on the over or under - for example, does Green Bay win by more than 3.5, or less than 3.5? Green Bay covers if they win by 4 or more, they win but don't cover if they win by 3 or less, etc. If teams are evenly matched, the line is usually three points to the home team. If they are unevenly matched, the line will be higher (or so low that the away team becomes favored, creating a home underdog or "homedog"). If the team wins by the exact margin, then the pick doesn't count and you get your money back. So that's the spread system in an nutshell.
I will be getting all of my spreads from the ESPN.com NFL scoreboard page. Don't know how accurate it is, but it's where I'm going. On to the picks - and a fantasy section at the end.
Saints at Packers (GB by 4.5)
The Lions aren't the only one's with the great bandwagon. I actually saw an article on ESPN wondering if the Packers are a dynasty. Please... I like them as much as anyone else. It was great fun to watch them beat the Steelers. But they won one superbowl. It sounds an awful lot like the year before actually, when everyone was ready to anoint New Orleans the permanent NFL champions forever. Just because they beat a team that we all hate in the Superbowl doesn't mean we should lose our minds. So I'm taking my Upset of the Week here and taking New Orleans to win outright.
Falcons at Bears (ATL by 3)
Not a fan of either of these teams this year, but I don't know that Chicago could keep up with Atlanta if ATL wants to try a shootout with Roddy White and Julio Jones. I'll take ATL to cover.
Bengals at Browns (CLE by 7)
The Annual Ohio Puke-Off. I hope to God this game isn't on TV, even if the Browns are supposedly a decent sleeper team. I think I'll pick Cleveland to win but not to cover...
Bills at Chiefs (KC by 6)
The Bills might actually be sneaky decent. Everyone thinks they should take Luck, but it's not like Fitzpatrick was horrible last year. I like the Bills to keep it close here, but still lose. So I take the under.
Eagles at Rams (Phi by 5.5)
Two pretty good NFC teams. I don't have to play Vick in any of my leagues this week, so I'm feeling confident he won't do very well. But then again, I don't think I can name a player on the STL defense, so I'll take Philly to cover the spread.
Lions at Buccanneers (TB by 1)
Two bandwagons are pretty full: the Lions bandwagon, and the "I just jumped off the Lions Bandwagon because it's too full" bandwagon. I don't agree with this line; I don't think the Lions are two points better than the Bucs. If the line was TB by 4, I would have to think about it. As it is, I'm gonna have to take the Bucs and hope I'm wrong.
As a side note, the last time I was this optimistic about a Lion's season, they had just gone 4-0 through the preseason, and I was excited to watch them tear apart a rookie quarterback - Matt Ryan. They promptly lost badly and went 0-16. The lesson, as always for Lion's fans, is don't hope.
Titans at Jaguars (Jac by 3)
I'm pretty sure this line is incorrect, as it probably doesn't account for Jacksonville's QB situation. But it's what ESPN has today (Thursday) so I'll take the gift and pick Ten.
Steelers at Ravens (Bal by 2)
Everyone's predicting a decline for the Ravens, and I am too. Because I'm sick of Flacco, and his dumb face. So I predict the Steelers to win.
Colts at Texans (Hou by 9)
I think Houston will win, but I'm not willing to bet it would be by 10 points. Collins isn't bad, he's just not Peyton Manning. I think Indy will keep it close, maybe lose by a touchdown.
Panthers at Cardinals (Ari by 7)
Well, so far, I've only picked one home team to cover. Time to start working that average back up. Panthers are terrible, and while I have a sinking feeling in my stomach whenever I think of Kevin Kolb, I'm betting he has a decent coming out party. Who wouldn't want to play Carolina week one?
Vikings at Chargers (SD by 9)
Everyone is predicting that Philip Rivers is going to have a monster game. I wasn't able to snag Rivers in any of my leagues (he was my third ranked quarterback), but I do have Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates in a couple. I'm hoping that goes well for me. On the flip side, I also have AP, which I agonized about because I hate my first round pick giving me 6 points on week 1. Anyway, I pick the Chargers to win by a mile and cover.
Seahawks at 49ers (SF by 6)
I read an amazing stat today. The Seahawks lose by an average of 5-6 points on the road and win by an average of 6 points at home - a swing of 12 points. They even used that advantage to beat New Orleans last year in the playoffs. But there's your line right there, right? Seahawks losing by 6 on the road. So I'll take San Fran to cover - heck, I'll make it my lock.
Giants at Redskins (NYG by 3)
Who is left to play defense for the Giants? I don't know at this point. I think Shanahan will have the Redskins in decent shape (minus Rexy Grossman), so I don't think NY will cover. I think Washington will win. The whole homedog thing, ya know?
Cowboys at Jets (NYJ by 4.5)
You know, I hate the Jets. I really do. But I'm not a fan of the Cowboys. Here's my thinking in this game: Dallas can be explosive on offense. Jets, not so much. If the Dallas gets ahead (which isn't a surefire possibility with Revis on the field), the Jets can't catch up. So I'm taking Dallas.
Patriots at Dolphins (NE by 7)
Patriots. Would take the patriots at 10. 14 would be a fair place to set the line on bets where I would have to start considering NE not covering.
Raiders at Broncos (Den by 3)
I'm gonna get burned bad by picking so many road teams and stuff, but I don't like Denver this year. I like Oakland here. Jeez, may I never type that again.
Fantasy Football Preview:
I have three teams this year. Here they are:
Cristaball League:
Autodrafted last in a 16 team league:
Darren Mcfadden; Steven Jackson; Felix Jones; Benjarvus Green Ellis; Eli Manning; Steve Smith (Car); Robert Meachem; Braylon Edwards; Donovan McNabb; Mike Williams (Sea); Aaron Hernandez; Nate Burleson; Devin Hester; Kevin Ogletree; Raiders D/ST; Jason Hanson
Well, I hate this team. Quarterbacks suck, receivers are negligible, no real strengths. My RB's aren't bad, but for some reason this league was capped at 4. Weird. I also got two receivers that have the same name as other receivers, but I got the crappy versions.
The good news? In one hilarious turn of events, somebody dropped Kevin Kolb to pick up Carson Palmer(!). I immediately dropped McNabb and added Kolb. Now, I look and they have picked up McNabb. Suckers. This is also the guy I'm playing week 1, and I'm still only projected to win by 4 (and he's sitting MJD for... Ladainian Tomlinson?)
Go Lions:
I liked my team here. Last pick in a ten man league. Note: this isn't the order I drafted them in.
Michael Vick; Darren McFadden; Ahmad Bradshaw; Marques Colston; Vincent Jackson; Tony Gonzalez; Brandon Lloyd; Sam Bradford; Joseph Addai; Michael Bush; Nate Burleson; Devery Henderson; Steve Johnson; Billy Cundiff; New Orleans.
I wanted Vick in this league, and was going to take him wherever I ended up. He fell to me at 10th, which was amazing. And then I just stocked up on RB's and WR's, while stealing Sam Bradford as a great backup.
I'm pretty pumped about this team. Pretty sure I'm one of the top two.
Emerald City Eight:
The jewel of my crown. First pick in an 8 team league.
Adrian Peterson, Rashard Mendenhall, Maurice Jones Drew, Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston, Jeremy Maclin, Fred Jackson, Shonn Greene, Santana Moss, Matt Stafford, Julio Jones, CJ Spiller, Kevin Kolb, Chargers D/ST, Mason Crosby.
I purposefully encouraged a run on QB's early, knowing I could get a decent one in the later rounds. Vick went 2nd overall, and Rodgers 7th, and Brady 8th. And so I just sat back and picked up amazing players. Look at my first five picks - thats a murderers row. My only regret is getting two Buffalo RB's (they were the best RB's left on the board, with nothing much else to work with). I'm trying to trade Greene and Kolb for Roethlisberger and Lee Evans to a running back needy team, so we'll see how that goes. I'm risking it a bit by taking Stafford, but I have to be a homer every now and again.
And that's the end, ladies and gentlemen. Let the season begin.
This season, I will be picking the winner of each game, as well as picking against the spread. If you don't know what the spread is, I will explain it now. Vegas predicts who will win by a point margin - so, for example, they might say "Green Bay by 3.5." Your job is to bet on the over or under - for example, does Green Bay win by more than 3.5, or less than 3.5? Green Bay covers if they win by 4 or more, they win but don't cover if they win by 3 or less, etc. If teams are evenly matched, the line is usually three points to the home team. If they are unevenly matched, the line will be higher (or so low that the away team becomes favored, creating a home underdog or "homedog"). If the team wins by the exact margin, then the pick doesn't count and you get your money back. So that's the spread system in an nutshell.
I will be getting all of my spreads from the ESPN.com NFL scoreboard page. Don't know how accurate it is, but it's where I'm going. On to the picks - and a fantasy section at the end.
Saints at Packers (GB by 4.5)
The Lions aren't the only one's with the great bandwagon. I actually saw an article on ESPN wondering if the Packers are a dynasty. Please... I like them as much as anyone else. It was great fun to watch them beat the Steelers. But they won one superbowl. It sounds an awful lot like the year before actually, when everyone was ready to anoint New Orleans the permanent NFL champions forever. Just because they beat a team that we all hate in the Superbowl doesn't mean we should lose our minds. So I'm taking my Upset of the Week here and taking New Orleans to win outright.
Falcons at Bears (ATL by 3)
Not a fan of either of these teams this year, but I don't know that Chicago could keep up with Atlanta if ATL wants to try a shootout with Roddy White and Julio Jones. I'll take ATL to cover.
Bengals at Browns (CLE by 7)
The Annual Ohio Puke-Off. I hope to God this game isn't on TV, even if the Browns are supposedly a decent sleeper team. I think I'll pick Cleveland to win but not to cover...
Bills at Chiefs (KC by 6)
The Bills might actually be sneaky decent. Everyone thinks they should take Luck, but it's not like Fitzpatrick was horrible last year. I like the Bills to keep it close here, but still lose. So I take the under.
Eagles at Rams (Phi by 5.5)
Two pretty good NFC teams. I don't have to play Vick in any of my leagues this week, so I'm feeling confident he won't do very well. But then again, I don't think I can name a player on the STL defense, so I'll take Philly to cover the spread.
Lions at Buccanneers (TB by 1)
Two bandwagons are pretty full: the Lions bandwagon, and the "I just jumped off the Lions Bandwagon because it's too full" bandwagon. I don't agree with this line; I don't think the Lions are two points better than the Bucs. If the line was TB by 4, I would have to think about it. As it is, I'm gonna have to take the Bucs and hope I'm wrong.
As a side note, the last time I was this optimistic about a Lion's season, they had just gone 4-0 through the preseason, and I was excited to watch them tear apart a rookie quarterback - Matt Ryan. They promptly lost badly and went 0-16. The lesson, as always for Lion's fans, is don't hope.
Titans at Jaguars (Jac by 3)
I'm pretty sure this line is incorrect, as it probably doesn't account for Jacksonville's QB situation. But it's what ESPN has today (Thursday) so I'll take the gift and pick Ten.
Steelers at Ravens (Bal by 2)
Everyone's predicting a decline for the Ravens, and I am too. Because I'm sick of Flacco, and his dumb face. So I predict the Steelers to win.
Colts at Texans (Hou by 9)
I think Houston will win, but I'm not willing to bet it would be by 10 points. Collins isn't bad, he's just not Peyton Manning. I think Indy will keep it close, maybe lose by a touchdown.
Panthers at Cardinals (Ari by 7)
Well, so far, I've only picked one home team to cover. Time to start working that average back up. Panthers are terrible, and while I have a sinking feeling in my stomach whenever I think of Kevin Kolb, I'm betting he has a decent coming out party. Who wouldn't want to play Carolina week one?
Vikings at Chargers (SD by 9)
Everyone is predicting that Philip Rivers is going to have a monster game. I wasn't able to snag Rivers in any of my leagues (he was my third ranked quarterback), but I do have Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates in a couple. I'm hoping that goes well for me. On the flip side, I also have AP, which I agonized about because I hate my first round pick giving me 6 points on week 1. Anyway, I pick the Chargers to win by a mile and cover.
Seahawks at 49ers (SF by 6)
I read an amazing stat today. The Seahawks lose by an average of 5-6 points on the road and win by an average of 6 points at home - a swing of 12 points. They even used that advantage to beat New Orleans last year in the playoffs. But there's your line right there, right? Seahawks losing by 6 on the road. So I'll take San Fran to cover - heck, I'll make it my lock.
Giants at Redskins (NYG by 3)
Who is left to play defense for the Giants? I don't know at this point. I think Shanahan will have the Redskins in decent shape (minus Rexy Grossman), so I don't think NY will cover. I think Washington will win. The whole homedog thing, ya know?
Cowboys at Jets (NYJ by 4.5)
You know, I hate the Jets. I really do. But I'm not a fan of the Cowboys. Here's my thinking in this game: Dallas can be explosive on offense. Jets, not so much. If the Dallas gets ahead (which isn't a surefire possibility with Revis on the field), the Jets can't catch up. So I'm taking Dallas.
Patriots at Dolphins (NE by 7)
Patriots. Would take the patriots at 10. 14 would be a fair place to set the line on bets where I would have to start considering NE not covering.
Raiders at Broncos (Den by 3)
I'm gonna get burned bad by picking so many road teams and stuff, but I don't like Denver this year. I like Oakland here. Jeez, may I never type that again.
Fantasy Football Preview:
I have three teams this year. Here they are:
Cristaball League:
Autodrafted last in a 16 team league:
Darren Mcfadden; Steven Jackson; Felix Jones; Benjarvus Green Ellis; Eli Manning; Steve Smith (Car); Robert Meachem; Braylon Edwards; Donovan McNabb; Mike Williams (Sea); Aaron Hernandez; Nate Burleson; Devin Hester; Kevin Ogletree; Raiders D/ST; Jason Hanson
Well, I hate this team. Quarterbacks suck, receivers are negligible, no real strengths. My RB's aren't bad, but for some reason this league was capped at 4. Weird. I also got two receivers that have the same name as other receivers, but I got the crappy versions.
The good news? In one hilarious turn of events, somebody dropped Kevin Kolb to pick up Carson Palmer(!). I immediately dropped McNabb and added Kolb. Now, I look and they have picked up McNabb. Suckers. This is also the guy I'm playing week 1, and I'm still only projected to win by 4 (and he's sitting MJD for... Ladainian Tomlinson?)
Go Lions:
I liked my team here. Last pick in a ten man league. Note: this isn't the order I drafted them in.
Michael Vick; Darren McFadden; Ahmad Bradshaw; Marques Colston; Vincent Jackson; Tony Gonzalez; Brandon Lloyd; Sam Bradford; Joseph Addai; Michael Bush; Nate Burleson; Devery Henderson; Steve Johnson; Billy Cundiff; New Orleans.
I wanted Vick in this league, and was going to take him wherever I ended up. He fell to me at 10th, which was amazing. And then I just stocked up on RB's and WR's, while stealing Sam Bradford as a great backup.
I'm pretty pumped about this team. Pretty sure I'm one of the top two.
Emerald City Eight:
The jewel of my crown. First pick in an 8 team league.
Adrian Peterson, Rashard Mendenhall, Maurice Jones Drew, Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston, Jeremy Maclin, Fred Jackson, Shonn Greene, Santana Moss, Matt Stafford, Julio Jones, CJ Spiller, Kevin Kolb, Chargers D/ST, Mason Crosby.
I purposefully encouraged a run on QB's early, knowing I could get a decent one in the later rounds. Vick went 2nd overall, and Rodgers 7th, and Brady 8th. And so I just sat back and picked up amazing players. Look at my first five picks - thats a murderers row. My only regret is getting two Buffalo RB's (they were the best RB's left on the board, with nothing much else to work with). I'm trying to trade Greene and Kolb for Roethlisberger and Lee Evans to a running back needy team, so we'll see how that goes. I'm risking it a bit by taking Stafford, but I have to be a homer every now and again.
And that's the end, ladies and gentlemen. Let the season begin.
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
Game 7!
I return for a brief look at and thought about Game 7's.
Tonight features a Game 7 between the Boston Bruins and the Vancouver Canucks. Winners get their names engraved on Lord Stanley's Cup.
Who I will be rooting for? The underdog Boston Bruins. Vancouver has come across too much like thugs in this series - biting fingers, giving concussions, offering advice, getting their goalie pulled. Boston has been exemplary - the best example being Tim Thomas, a hard working guy from Flint MI who has refused to play the media game and make fun of Luongo (despite Luongo most assuredly deserving it).
I remember three of Detroits recent Game 7's. I was too young for the Game 7 in 1997 with Stevie Y's overtime goal against St Louis. The first Game 7 I remember watching in nervous anticipation was 2002 when Detroit faced their hated rivals - the Colorado Avalanche. It was a nervewracking experience. Detroit had played a perfect game 6, and still only won because of two mistakes by Patrick Roy, a goaltender who didn't make mistakes. I remember thinking how it would go down to the last second, and it would be nervewracking.
We won 7-0, and the game was never in doubt. We chased (Patricia) Roy and started singing "Sweet Caroline" as we started mentally playing the Hurricanes. I smiled for days. Even now, I put in the DVD of that game if I want to have a little mental pick-me-up. Nothing compares to winning a Game 7.
I remember watching two other game 7's. 2009, when Detroit lost 2-0 to Pittsburgh, and 2011, when Detroit lost 3-2. Those were sucker punch games, where everything you fear comes to hit you in the face. 2009 was particularly devastating, as we lost the Stanley Cup to snot-nosed Cindy Crosby. I called in sick to work the next day and don't remember having a single conversation with my then fiance for three days.
My point is this - Game 7 will make or break you. Boston or Vancouver fans, enjoy this moment of reprieve. Because in 6 or 7 hours, the game of nerves will start. Whoever blinks first will lose. The game will stay with you, win or loss.
(p.s. I bet ten bucks Vancouver riots, win or loss).
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Madcap NHL Conference Semifinal Picks
I went 6-2 in the first round, and came within two goals of 8-0. But hey, Pittsburgh is out! Whoo! Although we'll have to listen to them whine about how far they would have gone with Cindy...
Anyway, on to the conference semifinal picks:
Eastern Conference:
Washington versus Tampa Bay - TB should be exhausted. Washington is rested and good, and should manhandle the Lightning in 5.
Philadelphia versus Boston - Another rough series. I see this going seven, and Washington walking through the winner for the finals. I'll take Philadelphia in seven.
Western Conference:
Vancouver versus Nashville - Nashville in 6! Vancouver got pushed to the brink and I don't think they match up well against Nashville.
San Jose versus Detroit - Not even being a homer, but this will be the best series to watch this round. These teams are very close in talent and skill; but I'll give the edge to Detroit (duh) because San Jose barely beat LA. They won three games in OT - not exactly a ringing endorsement.
Sets up Detroit versus Nashville and Washington versus Philadelphia.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Drama Ensues
Ever feel inundated?
This week has suddenly become "Family Drama" week. Seriously, it's worse than a Lifetime special. Shall we go with bulleted points? I think so:
- My father hasn't talked to my brother in months, maybe years? Including not bothering to call or facebook him on his Birthday. Oh, and my dad remarried, which is good but weird
- This has led my brother to take to facebook, saying how he "hates my ******* dad"
- My 15 year old cousin was recently expelled for drug activity, and refuses to give up said drugs
- My 45ish aunt is pregnant, even though she can't/doesn't really take care of her two kids she has. The father used to be married to someone else. Oh, and this was purposeful on my Aunt after she miscarried a baby just last year.
- My grandfather Joe is probably dying, but since he has alienated most of his family, no one really cares.
- The only people who do care are those he hasn't alienated, who are upset at the rest of the family for not visiting/calling Joe
- My 18 year old sister is pregnant, and the father is a guy who has cheated on her multiple times and recently had the facebook status "there's something about a girl saying no that makes me want to rape her lol"
I think that about covers it. Mind you, that's really only my side. I could bring in a few of Jess's family members too, but this seems like a good list.
What do I feel about all of this? Pressure. I'm the guy that my family thinks to rely on. Here's a solid example - I got a call from my cousin Andrea the other night regarding the Grandpa Joe situation. I was expecting her to yell at me because I, like most of the rest, have not called this man that I don't have a relationship with (I can seriously count the number of times I've seen him on one hand, and remember one conversation). I braced myself to be yelled at, only to discover that she was calling me because I was a "peacemaker" and she wanted me to say something to the rest of my cousins, so that they would hopefully visit/call Joe.
It reminds me of when my mom died, and I was the one who wasn't really allowed to break down. I needed to be the strong one, carry my dad, be there for my family. Take the lead, help make decisions, etc. I know that I put some of that on myself, but it was still there, undeniable.
I remember a conversation with a pastor who said that my entire family was "looking to me and wondering, whether or not I was about to break down. Be strong for them."
I don't know that this post has much of a point, other than to rail against that. I don't always want to be that guy. But I will be, as much as I can.
P.S. If you're someone involved in one of those bulleted points reading this, I'm sorry if you feel offended. Feel free to call and talk about it sometime.
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Madcap NHL Playoff Picks
First, a confession: I don't want much NHL these days. It's hard to find in Seattle. I know of one sports bar that shows games, and it's in the U-District. So my observations and picks will be based mostly on wishes and on bias. Pretty much like everything else I do. I'm hoping to catch games online - we'll see how it goes. So here's my Madcap Picks for the first round.
Eastern Conference:
1. Washington Capitals vs 8. New York Rangers - Will the Capitals finally get it, in the playoffs? Will Ovechkin become a great postseason player? I'm thinking the Caps dispose of their playoff demons (for now) and win this in 5.
2. Philadelphia Flyers vs 7. Buffalo Sabres - This is probably the most commonly picked "upset" round this year. A lot of analysts are picking the Sabres because the Flyers are hurting and not playing well. Rule of thumb: anytime most people agree on an upset, it's not going to happen. I'll take Philly in 6.
3. Boston Bruins vs 6. Montreal Canadiens - This promises to be a brutal series, after the hit that Chara put on Pacioretty just a month ago. These two teams hate each other. And that spells a seven game series to me. I'll take Montreal to come in and shock the Bruin's faithful in Boston in Game 7.
4. Pittsburgh Penguins vs 5. Tampa Bay Lightning - I don't know what to expect in this series. Will Crosby show up? I'm pretty sure if Pittsburgh falls behind in the series or faces elimination he'll be there. I'm cheering on Tampa Bay, but it's not a wise idea to pick against home ice and against experience... Pittsburgh in 6.
Western Conference
1. Vancouver Canucks vs 8.Chicago Blackhawks - Ah geez. I hope this goes 7 and these two teams cream each other. I'm picking Vancouver in 5 though.
2. San Jose Sharks vs 7. Los Angeles Kings - San Jose in 5. Kopitar is hurt, and San Jose is a good team.
3. Detroit Red Wings vs 6. Phoenix Coyotes - Rematch, huh? So if Detroit took 7 games to beat Phoenix last year, without home ice and banged up, I think I'll take Detroit in 6 this year.
4. Anaheim Ducks vs 5. Nashville Predators - Sort of the afterthought series, even if it includes probable MVP Corey Perry. Both of these teams fly under the radar. I'll take Nashville in 6.
So that sets up round 2:
Washington vs Montreal
Philadelphia vs Pittsburgh
Vancouver vs Nashville
San Jose vs Detroit (ouch)
Here's the thing... I don't see Detroit winning it this year. The Western Conference is very strong, with too many teams that seem to have Detroit's number. Vancouver, San Jose, and Chicago are teams we definitely do not want, and it's not like Nashville or Anaheim are good for our health. Our best bet is Vancouver wins, LA wins, and Nashville wins first round. Then we draw Nashville and hope that LA can beat up Vancouver. Basically, to set up a cherry second round, we're looking for an LA round one victory - the one thing that's pretty much guaranteed not to happen.
Also, we don't have Colorado to beat up this year. Maybe the Wings are bluffing - they've been coasting for a few weeks and are ready to turn it on for the playoffs (see: 2002 playoffs). Or maybe they won't turn it on in time (see: 2001 playoffs). We'll see.
Monday, April 11, 2011
Writing a Killer Shark Novel (or making a Killer Shark Movie)
This might be one of my bucket list things. Write a great Killer Shark Novel. I love killer shark books and movies, and I love them even more when they are done well. Jaws is a great read and a great movie, and is obviously the pinnacle of anything killer shark related. At the bottom end, we have schlock like Sci-Fi channel specials ("Mega-Shark versus Giant Octopus!" or my new favorite "Sharktopus!") and we also have the bottom end of literature - Steve Alten's Meg sequels (the first was pretty good, but they pretty quickly nosedive into schlock).
Let's look at two common problems that Killer Shark Novels face, and see if we can't brainstorm a way around them.
1. The Setting. Sharks live in water. Duh. Shark attacks, therefore, happen in water. So the first problem we have to deal with is why don't our protagonists just stay out of the water. We have a few approaches. Jaws, for instance, needs the beaches open for economic reasons. This is the most basic motivation - we can't get all the people out of the water in time, for some reason. So we have a quest to kill the beast before it kills others.
There are a couple other ways to get around this setting issue. For one, we can always go the route of White Shark (by Peter Benchley) - the shark evolves(!) lungs and can then walk and attack on land. Those wacky Nazis!
There's also Deep Blue Sea method - bring the setting to the sharks! In Deep Blue Sea, the laboratory the scientists are working on sinks and the sharks get in. It gets even crazier / cooler in the proposed sequel Deep Red Sea (which never materialized) - where a tower would fall into the ocean and sink partially, allowing the sharks to attack a hotel.
2. The Creature. Generally, we have to start looking at larger sharks for them to be a serious and continual threat to human beings. Sharks under 10 feet, whilst still possessing sharp and dangerous teeth, are not usually regarded as a terrible threat. Under 20 feet, and we may not be looking a repeat or multiple offender. Once we're at that 20 feet threshold, we have a creature that's large enough to do damage and one that considers a human being a proper sized meal. Unfortunately, sharks rarely get that large. When you rule out rather benign species, we're looking at Great Whites, as a rule of thumb.
We could always genetically engineer a smaller shark to be larger (Deep Blue Sea) or resurrect an extinct shark (Meg), but this runs us into other problems. Genetic engineering pigeonholes us into a story about... the perils of genetic engineering. And the extinct sharks we deal with (primarily the Megalodon) tend to be too large. The main shark in the Meg series is 72 feet long; at that point, eating humans is a waste of energy.
I suppose a school or swarm of smaller sharks would be dangerous as well, but thats basically the plot of Piranha. And even small sharks can be dangerous if there's no way to escape them or fend them off (Open Water).
So there we go. The two common stretches that we'd need to make to create worthwhile Killer Shark Story. We need a setting and we need a creature. The setting gives us the excuse for the creature. There are two ways to make the Killer Shark Story memorable - take existing tropes/settings/creature and write it really well - or use a new setting/creature.
A new creature tends to be outlandish - look at all the Sci-Fi specials out there. So what do we have for a new setting? What ways can we think of to bring the humans to the sharks (Or vice versa)?
Monday, April 4, 2011
NHL: Bias Ranking
In the spirit of my NFL Bias Rankings, I present to you the first ever annual NHL Bias Rankings. As I said for the NFL Rankings:
"They're just like power rankings, but intentionally skewed to the teams that I am biased towards or against. So at the higher end you'll have teams that I hate and thus tend to root and pick against. Lower numbers more directly correspond to teams that I root for."
I'll be inventing whole new divisions (separate from the NFL Divisions). Without any further ado, here we go!
The Turtle Division
30. Pittsburgh Penguins
29. Colorado Avalanche
28. Chicago Blackhawks
Named after this particular fighting style - "The Turtle." As you can see, dirty coward Claude Lemieux has decided to fight Darren McCarty by hiding his head and trying to not get hurt. Epitome of cowardice and disgrace. For this division, we have Pittsburgh, Colorado, and Chicago. Colorado is on principle; as the employer of Claude Lemieux. They haven't really been a rivalry in years - and the last attempt to convince loyal Red Wings that they were a rival was the playoff series where Johan Franzen singlehandedly outscored the entire Colorado team (2008, nine goals to eight). Pittsburgh is on this list for employing Sidney Crosby, who I am willing to bet will not miss a single playoff game. What a weasel. And Chicago had no fans before taking the easy road to the Stanley Cup last year. Nowadays, you have to watch to not get crushed underneath the bandwagon.
The Put Up or Shut Up Division
27. San Jose Sharks
26. Nashville Predators
25. Vancouver Canucks
Seriously. If you can't win a Stanley Cup, don't even try to pretend you're any good. Doesn't matter if you get into the playoffs every year.
The Mel Gibson Division
24. Anaheim Ducks
23. Ottawa Senators
22. St Louis Blues
Can't like them on principle. Might have been cool in the past, but nowadays they're just spewing nonsense. Blue's get here for being a rival; Ducks are here for what I'm sure was black magic voodoo for their cup run (Pretty convinced Giguere had cellophane wrapped around the goal, with the way pucks would bounce out rather than in). And Ottawa... well, they probably deserve to be in the Put Up or Shut Up division, but they're from a province of Canada that comes across as snobby and pretentious. Pretentious Canadians? Unbelievable.
The Contraction Division
21. Florida Panthers
20. Atlanta Thrashers
19. Carolina Hurricanes
18. Columbus Blue Jackets
17. Minnesota Wild
If we combined all of these teams into just two teams, I'd be okay with that. Florida/Atlanta/Carolina become the Southeastern Thrashing Hurricanes. Columbus and Minnesota become the Minnesota Blue Stars. With that, the NHL goes to 27 teams, we put one in more in Canada (for a total of 28), and we can go to 4 divisions. Piece of cake.
The New York Division
16. New York Rangers
15. New York Islanders
14. New Jersey Devils
13. Buffalo Sabres
I can't think of why I don't like these teams, except that they're New York teams. My hatred of Yankees and Giants may be rubbing through. I do like Buffalo and New Jersey, mainly because they've both had amazing goaltenders (Hasek and Brodeur).
The Canadian Division
12. Edmonton Oilers
11. Calgary Flames
10. Montreal Canadiens
9. Boston Bruins
Isn't Boston in Canada? These are teams I wish were better, because they have a good rich history of hockey. Or they're canadian.
The Michael Biehn Division
8. Phoenix Coyotes
7. Philadelphia Flyers
6. Los Angeles Kings
I vaguely remember these teams from the playoffs years ago, and possibly winning the Stanley Cup through them. It was so long ago though that I don't recognize them any longer. It's like Michael Biehn - you certainly remember him from growing up with Aliens and Terminator and The Abyss, but if you saw him today you wouldn't have the foggiest idea who he was.
The Elephant Ear Division
5. Dallas Stars
4. Washington Capitals
3. Toronto Maple Leafs
Guilty pleasures, all. Shouldn't like them, but I do. Dallas had Mike Modano for awhile; perhaps in the top three of classy captains of all time (behind Yzerman and Messier). Capitals were always a fun team (and Ovechkin is a real player, unlike Crosby). And Toronto? I wish they were a team we met in the playoffs a lot. That would be a fun rivalry to reignite.
The Karl Urban Division
2. Tampa Bay Lightning
Surprisingly delightful. I've always enjoyed them, and now that their manager is good ole Stevie Y, I find myself rooting for them. They'll be in the playoffs this year, and that would a great matchup for the Stanley Cup Finals.
The Home Team
1. Detroit Red Wings
Flatout the most dominant team in hockey in the last 20 years. Since 1997, we've had 4 Stanley Cups. We've won the Central Division 9 out of the last 10 years. We're on our 10th straight 100 point season (NHL record, and active). We're also on 20 straight years in the playoffs.
And thus, the NHL Bias Rankings. I realized that because I care more about Hockey, and actually have a team that's worth supporting, there are a lot more villains than there are heroes. In football, it's about 50/50. In hockey, I like approximately 1/6 of the teams. I thought this would be a good primer, and also a good start for my NHL predictions (as the playoffs are only a week away). Go Wings!
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