Week 1: The NFL is Back... And So Am I, Baby!

I know you missed me. Life's been crazy. And I've been lazy. Let's just get right to it.

This season, I will be picking the winner of each game, as well as picking against the spread. If you don't know what the spread is, I will explain it now. Vegas predicts who will win by a point margin - so, for example, they might say "Green Bay by 3.5." Your job is to bet on the over or under - for example, does Green Bay win by more than 3.5, or less than 3.5? Green Bay covers if they win by 4 or more, they win but don't cover if they win by 3 or less, etc. If teams are evenly matched, the line is usually three points to the home team. If they are unevenly matched, the line will be higher (or so low that the away team becomes favored, creating a home underdog or "homedog"). If the team wins by the exact margin, then the pick doesn't count and you get your money back. So that's the spread system in an nutshell.

I will be getting all of my spreads from the ESPN.com NFL scoreboard page. Don't know how accurate it is, but it's where I'm going. On to the picks - and a fantasy section at the end.

Saints at Packers (GB by 4.5)
The Lions aren't the only one's with the great bandwagon. I actually saw an article on ESPN wondering if the Packers are a dynasty. Please... I like them as much as anyone else. It was great fun to watch them beat the Steelers. But they won one superbowl. It sounds an awful lot like the year before actually, when everyone was ready to anoint New Orleans the permanent NFL champions forever. Just because they beat a team that we all hate in the Superbowl doesn't mean we should lose our minds. So I'm taking my Upset of the Week here and taking New Orleans to win outright.

Falcons at Bears (ATL by 3)
Not a fan of either of these teams this year, but I don't know that Chicago could keep up with Atlanta if ATL wants to try a shootout with Roddy White and Julio Jones. I'll take ATL to cover.

Bengals at Browns (CLE by 7)
The Annual Ohio Puke-Off. I hope to God this game isn't on TV, even if the Browns are supposedly a decent sleeper team. I think I'll pick Cleveland to win but not to cover...

Bills at Chiefs (KC by 6)
The Bills might actually be sneaky decent. Everyone thinks they should take Luck, but it's not like Fitzpatrick was horrible last year. I like the Bills to keep it close here, but still lose. So I take the under.

Eagles at Rams (Phi by 5.5)
Two pretty good NFC teams. I don't have to play Vick in any of my leagues this week, so I'm feeling confident he won't do very well. But then again, I don't think I can name a player on the STL defense, so I'll take Philly to cover the spread.

Lions at Buccanneers (TB by 1)
Two bandwagons are pretty full: the Lions bandwagon, and the "I just jumped off the Lions Bandwagon because it's too full" bandwagon. I don't agree with this line; I don't think the Lions are two points better than the Bucs. If the line was TB by 4, I would have to think about it. As it is, I'm gonna have to take the Bucs and hope I'm wrong.

As a side note, the last time I was this optimistic about a Lion's season, they had just gone 4-0 through the preseason, and I was excited to watch them tear apart a rookie quarterback - Matt Ryan. They promptly lost badly and went 0-16. The lesson, as always for Lion's fans, is don't hope.

Titans at Jaguars (Jac by 3)
I'm pretty sure this line is incorrect, as it probably doesn't account for Jacksonville's QB situation. But it's what ESPN has today (Thursday) so I'll take the gift and pick Ten.

Steelers at Ravens (Bal by 2)
Everyone's predicting a decline for the Ravens, and I am too. Because I'm sick of Flacco, and his dumb face. So I predict the Steelers to win.

Colts at Texans (Hou by 9)
I think Houston will win, but I'm not willing to bet it would be by 10 points. Collins isn't bad, he's just not Peyton Manning. I think Indy will keep it close, maybe lose by a touchdown.

Panthers at Cardinals (Ari by 7)
Well, so far, I've only picked one home team to cover. Time to start working that average back up. Panthers are terrible, and while I have a sinking feeling in my stomach whenever I think of Kevin Kolb, I'm betting he has a decent coming out party. Who wouldn't want to play Carolina week one?

Vikings at Chargers (SD by 9)
Everyone is predicting that Philip Rivers is going to have a monster game. I wasn't able to snag Rivers in any of my leagues (he was my third ranked quarterback), but I do have Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates in a couple. I'm hoping that goes well for me. On the flip side, I also have AP, which I agonized about because I hate my first round pick giving me 6 points on week 1. Anyway, I pick the Chargers to win by a mile and cover.

Seahawks at 49ers (SF by 6)
I read an amazing stat today. The Seahawks lose by an average of 5-6 points on the road and win by an average of 6 points at home - a swing of 12 points. They even used that advantage to beat New Orleans last year in the playoffs. But there's your line right there, right? Seahawks losing by 6 on the road. So I'll take San Fran to cover - heck, I'll make it my lock.

Giants at Redskins (NYG by 3)
Who is left to play defense for the Giants? I don't know at this point. I think Shanahan will have the Redskins in decent shape (minus Rexy Grossman), so I don't think NY will cover. I think Washington will win. The whole homedog thing, ya know?

Cowboys at Jets (NYJ by 4.5)
You know, I hate the Jets. I really do. But I'm not a fan of the Cowboys. Here's my thinking in this game: Dallas can be explosive on offense. Jets, not so much. If the Dallas gets ahead (which isn't a surefire possibility with Revis on the field), the Jets can't catch up. So I'm taking Dallas.

Patriots at Dolphins (NE by 7)
Patriots. Would take the patriots at 10. 14 would be a fair place to set the line on bets where I would have to start considering NE not covering.

Raiders at Broncos (Den by 3)
I'm gonna get burned bad by picking so many road teams and stuff, but I don't like Denver this year. I like Oakland here. Jeez, may I never type that again.

Fantasy Football Preview:
I have three teams this year. Here they are:

Cristaball League:
Autodrafted last in a 16 team league:
Darren Mcfadden; Steven Jackson; Felix Jones; Benjarvus Green Ellis; Eli Manning; Steve Smith (Car); Robert Meachem; Braylon Edwards; Donovan McNabb; Mike Williams (Sea); Aaron Hernandez; Nate Burleson; Devin Hester; Kevin Ogletree; Raiders D/ST; Jason Hanson

Well, I hate this team. Quarterbacks suck, receivers are negligible, no real strengths. My RB's aren't bad, but for some reason this league was capped at 4. Weird. I also got two receivers that have the same name as other receivers, but I got the crappy versions.

The good news? In one hilarious turn of events, somebody dropped Kevin Kolb to pick up Carson Palmer(!). I immediately dropped McNabb and added Kolb. Now, I look and they have picked up McNabb. Suckers. This is also the guy I'm playing week 1, and I'm still only projected to win by 4 (and he's sitting MJD for... Ladainian Tomlinson?)

Go Lions:
I liked my team here. Last pick in a ten man league. Note: this isn't the order I drafted them in.

Michael Vick; Darren McFadden; Ahmad Bradshaw; Marques Colston; Vincent Jackson; Tony Gonzalez; Brandon Lloyd; Sam Bradford; Joseph Addai; Michael Bush; Nate Burleson; Devery Henderson; Steve Johnson; Billy Cundiff; New Orleans.

I wanted Vick in this league, and was going to take him wherever I ended up. He fell to me at 10th, which was amazing. And then I just stocked up on RB's and WR's, while stealing Sam Bradford as a great backup.

I'm pretty pumped about this team. Pretty sure I'm one of the top two.


Emerald City Eight:

The jewel of my crown. First pick in an 8 team league.

Adrian Peterson, Rashard Mendenhall, Maurice Jones Drew, Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston, Jeremy Maclin, Fred Jackson, Shonn Greene, Santana Moss, Matt Stafford, Julio Jones, CJ Spiller, Kevin Kolb, Chargers D/ST, Mason Crosby.

I purposefully encouraged a run on QB's early, knowing I could get a decent one in the later rounds. Vick went 2nd overall, and Rodgers 7th, and Brady 8th. And so I just sat back and picked up amazing players. Look at my first five picks - thats a murderers row. My only regret is getting two Buffalo RB's (they were the best RB's left on the board, with nothing much else to work with). I'm trying to trade Greene and Kolb for Roethlisberger and Lee Evans to a running back needy team, so we'll see how that goes. I'm risking it a bit by taking Stafford, but I have to be a homer every now and again.


And that's the end, ladies and gentlemen. Let the season begin.