Speaking of the Luck-Off, I think we as an internet need to come up with a great name for the contest. When we think of the rhyming possibilities, I think we can do it.
After week one, I have decided to simplify my picks to be against the spread. Mostly because I did horrible in picking game winners. Here are my week 1 results. Note that I'm listing based on the picks I made against the spread, so I have Tennessee as a correct pick even though they lost.
Week 1 Correct Picks: Cincinnati, Buffalo, Philadelphia, Tennessee, San Francisco (lock 1-0), Washington, Dallas; Oakland; New England
Week 1 Incorrect Picks: Green Bay (upset 0-1), Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, San Diego
Arizona landed right on the spread of 7, so I get my pick back (it's called a push). Making the record 9-6-1.
On to the week 2 picks! (Tuesday Update: These lines are a little ridiculous. I'll highlight where below.)
Oakland at Buffalo (Buf by 4): Buffalo looked a little too good. I don't know if I believe in that yet. Yes, I know I picked them. But I still don't trust them. Although, when in doubt, take the points. I'll take the over.
Kansas City at Detroit (Det by 9): The first insane line of the day. Detroit is favored by 9 points. Nine! I can't bring myself to that. Not yet. I'll take the under.
Baltimore at Tennessee (Bal by 7): I don't know, man. It's a home game for Tennessee, so I'll take the under here as well.
Cleveland at Indianopolis (Cle by 2): I kept seeing the bottom line scroll across on Sunday, updating me on the Houston/Indy game. Every time I saw it, Houston had scored 10 more points. Was Indy really that inept, or was Houston really that good? I think Indy rights itself a bit here and somebody finally lights that Cleveland bandwagon on fire.
Tampa Bay at Minnesota (Min by 3): I'll take the over. Minnesota nearly beat a really good San Diego team. Tampa Bay wasn't really in the Detroit game.
Chicago at New Orleans (NO by 7): One team that played better than their loss suggested, and one team that played worse than their win suggested. In both of the games week one, it all hinged on turnovers. Chicago went 5/5 on recovered fumbles, including some that frankly changed the momentum of the game. New Orleans fumbled on their first possession, which then required them to go into a shootout starting down two scores (and they still almost pulled it off). This is an easy bet - New Orleans and the over.
Jacksonville at New York (NYJ by 10): I absolutely cannot believe that the Jets won on Sunday night. They seem to do that every week - win games because the other team melts down. I swear on all that is holy that I cannot stand them. My prediction for this game: Jacksonville leads a close game, up by 4, when Luke McCown runs out the back of the end zone and tries to do a reverse Lambeau leap. On the ensuing safety punt, Jacksonville botches the punt, managing to kick it backwards, and New York capitalizes with a field goal to take a 1 point lead and win. No way I'm picking the Jets by 10. I'll take the under. And this is my lock.
Seattle at Pittsburgh (Pit by 15): Here's what I can tell you: I'm writing this first draft on Monday morning without seeing the lines, and I'm taking Pittsburgh and the over. It's a perfect storm of an embarassed good team and a crappy team led by Tarvaris Jackson on the road. If they put the spread at 20, I would still have to seriously consider Pittsburgh. Also: Fantasy MVP this week will be the Pitt D/ST. (Tuesday Update: 15 points and I'm still taking the over.)
Arizona at Washington (Was by 5): It's the redemption of Rex Grossman! I only hope that because Dave has legally agreed to rename his daughter Rex Grossman Morgan if he does well. So in that vein, I will take Wash and the over. Scratch That. Washington beat a hurting Giants. I'll take the under.
Green Bay at Carolina (GB by 11): I'm pretty sure I saw the best team in football last Thursday. And I don't think Carolina keeps up with that. Sorry, I'm taking the points.
Dallas at San Francisco (Dal by 3): Every time I saw Rob Ryan on the sidelines, I flashbacked to Arrested Development, where in Season 2 we were introduced to George Bluth Sr's twin brother Oscar Bluth. Oscar was played by the same actor in a wig. It's the exact same - we had no idea that there was a Rob Ryan until we were already sick of Rex. I'm still not 100% convinced it's not a publicity ploy and Rex isn't running both teams. I take Dallas in spite of Tony Romo.
Cincinnati at Denver (Den by 6): Really? No respect for Cincy? Didn't Denver just lose at home to Oakland, who were supposed to be terrible, while Cincy beat Cleveland at Cleveland? And wasn't Cleveland supposed to be sneaky good? I'll take Cincy here.
Houston at Miami (Hou by 3): A tad too much respect for Miami here. Do you think Henne puts together two games in a row? Me neither. Houston.
San Diego at New England (NE by 7): Great game! I think it's too close to call, and thus I'll take San Diego. I think it's a shootout, 35-33 or similar.
Philadelphia at Atlanta (Phi by 3): Maybe a great game. Certainly would have been amazing last year, but neither of these teams looked special last week. I'll take Atlanta as my upset, because I forgot to pick one until now.
St Louis at New York (NY by 6): The infamous Injury bowl! So early in the season, and all you'll hear next Monday is how beat up these two teams are. It's disappointing, but I'm ready to write off St Louis now, and anoint San Fran as the division winner (at 6-10). St Louis has a brutal schedule, and they won't be winning here. Take the over.
Fantasy Update:
Here's the frustrating thing about Fantasy: no matter how much you prepare, sometimes you just get lucky. Or unlucky. I'm writing this before the Monday night games (and will update after), but right now here's how it looking:
Go Lions: I felt good about this team going in. Right now, I'm down 6 points. I have two players left (McFadden and Lloyd), while he has three players left (Moreno, Welker, Janikowski). Could be a coin flip, although I'm obviously disadvantaged currently. Tuesday Update: I lost by 20 points.
Emerald City Eight: I've lost badly this week, unless Tom Brady doesn't get 3 fantasy points (Tuesday Update: Well, that certainly didn't happen). My team put up 80 points, total. Thats right. My murderers row first five put up 9, 2, 15, 3, and 6 points. I only had three players get to double digits - Stafford, Jones-Drew, and the Chargers D/ST. Thats right. My defense was my third most valuable player. I'm not ready to panic yet; next week should be better.
CRISTABall: And just to illustrate the randomness of Fantasy Football... I have won this game. My autodrafted horror has put up 104 points - with my #1 pick, McFadden, still left to play (as well as two other players). Eli Manning and Steve Smith combined for more points than my opponent . Unbelievable.
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