NFL Championship Weekend

Straight up 4-4 throughout. I missed on what team would lay an egg (although Baltimore came close anyway).

Important thing to remember here: Destiny doesn't exist. The two matchups that the media is dreaming about (Super Bowl 07 rematch; Harbowl) aren't going to happen. This isn't a sports movie that will line up at the last second.

So, seconds before the first game:

I like New England (but not by 9) and I like San Fran (over three).

NFL Divisional Weekend

2-2 Last Week. Lions should have no shame in getting blown out by the Saints.

On to this week...

One home team is blowing it. Let's be honest. That's whats happening. The obvious (and therefore not happening) choices are San Fran and Green Bay. I think San Fran may still lose, but the narrative won't be "sluggish and hurt by the bye." The choice for that narrative will be between Baltimore or New England, which both have a recent history of not showing up at times in the postseason. We'll figure it out shortly!

Saints at 49ers (NO by 4): Overhype alert: New Orleans. No respect for a team that won the bye. I'll take the 49ers. I think if you can rattle Drew Brees in the first half and play good defense in the second half (the Lions were halfway there), you have a good shot. San Fran will slow down the game, and that will frustrate Brees. I like San Fran to win here.

Broncos at Patriots (NE by 14): New England does have our potential blown potential narrative, and when we combine that with possibility of the "miraculous Tim Tebow comeback that in retrospect shouldn't be credited to Tim Tebow but rather to some dumb luck and mistakes by the other team" narrative, we could have a compelling story. However, I just don't see that. It's too obvious. Whenever something is obvious, swing the other way. I like the Patriots here by a mile.

Texans at Ravens (Bal by 9): Here it is. Our sleepy bye team, combined with the team that no one is really giving a shot to win. If you look at all the games, the Texans are probably the eight most popular pick. People are making legitimate cases on both sides of the San Fran/New Orleans and Green Bay / New York games. New England is favored, and Tim Tebow has Tebow magic, so they're probably closer to fifty fifty picks. But really noone is picking the Texans. And so I will. Second games between teams are generally closer, so that's my justification if I need one.

Finally, New York at Green Bay (GB by 9). It's a little too obvious for New York to pull an upset here, and so I will swing for Green Bay to win handily.

A Weird Note I Just Noticed: 5/8 of the teams have two word place names (Green Bay, New York, etc). That's 62.5%. Only 10 of the 32 teams have two word place names (31.2%). I don't know what that means, but it's interesting. Or perhaps just dumb. The only game that pits the two against each other is New England/Denver.

NFL: Wildcard Weekend

I rested my starters the last two weeks. Sorry. That's life.

Anyway, let's look at the playoff matchups.

My playoff picking rules:

1. Momentum Matters.
2. One team is overhyped, one team is underhyped.
3. When in doubt, take the home team. But pick at least one road team.
4. Destiny Exists.
5. One team is kryptonite.

These have served me well the last two years, as I have gone 0-8 in the wildcard round. I'm feeling it this year though, so let's get to the picks.

The Coin Flip Games:

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (Hou by 3)
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (NYG by 3)

A 50/50 bet either way. I wouldn't put money on these games. None of the teams qualify for overhype/underhype; the two teams with positive momentum are playing each other; the two teams with negative momentum are playing each other; and it's too early to identify a kryptonite.

I listened to Aaron Schatz the other day and he said that Atlanta is the most consistent team in the league - you know what you're getting. But New York must be the most inconsistent team (well, maybe the most inconsistent team not named Baltimore). So either good New York (smoked Dallas last week) or bad New York (lost to Washington the week before) shows up. I don't think Atlanta hangs, and I think we see good New York here. I like the Giants +3.

As far as Cincy/Houston, it's a game of two rookie quarterbacks. Anything could happen. And so we refer to rule 3 - when in doubt, take the home team. Houston +3.


The Predicted Blowouts

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (NO by 11)

I'm jumping all over this one and taking Detroit to cover the spread and win the game outright. Fanboy, who cares. Here are the relevant facts:

• Detroit outgained New Orleans four weeks ago, not accounting for penalty yards.


• Detroit was missing three or four key defensive players four weeks ago, and still held New Orleans to it's lowest home point total.


• Matt Stafford was at the very end of his funk four weeks ago, and is now playing out of his mind.


• New Orleans is definitely the most overhyped team coming into round 1. Remember when they blew that stinker to St Louis? This is not the second coming of Touchdown Jesus.

I'm taking Detroit. I'm so confident that I emailed Bill Simmons and told him he was messing with a "Nobody believes in us" team because he was podcasting about whether the weather in San Francisco would mess with New Orleans.

And yes, I may have just doomed my team.

Steelers at Broncos (PIT by 9)

I'm flip flopping on this game. I already have one road team winning, so I don't need to take Pittsburgh. Ultimately, I'm going to take Pittsburgh, unfortunately, and here's why - I can't possibly go 0-4 3 years in a row. But now, if I do, I will have missed on two coin flip games (shrug), on my home team winning, and on Tebow. That' seems defensible for next year.

Go Lions!