NFL: Wildcard Weekend

I rested my starters the last two weeks. Sorry. That's life.

Anyway, let's look at the playoff matchups.

My playoff picking rules:

1. Momentum Matters.
2. One team is overhyped, one team is underhyped.
3. When in doubt, take the home team. But pick at least one road team.
4. Destiny Exists.
5. One team is kryptonite.

These have served me well the last two years, as I have gone 0-8 in the wildcard round. I'm feeling it this year though, so let's get to the picks.

The Coin Flip Games:

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (Hou by 3)
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (NYG by 3)

A 50/50 bet either way. I wouldn't put money on these games. None of the teams qualify for overhype/underhype; the two teams with positive momentum are playing each other; the two teams with negative momentum are playing each other; and it's too early to identify a kryptonite.

I listened to Aaron Schatz the other day and he said that Atlanta is the most consistent team in the league - you know what you're getting. But New York must be the most inconsistent team (well, maybe the most inconsistent team not named Baltimore). So either good New York (smoked Dallas last week) or bad New York (lost to Washington the week before) shows up. I don't think Atlanta hangs, and I think we see good New York here. I like the Giants +3.

As far as Cincy/Houston, it's a game of two rookie quarterbacks. Anything could happen. And so we refer to rule 3 - when in doubt, take the home team. Houston +3.


The Predicted Blowouts

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (NO by 11)

I'm jumping all over this one and taking Detroit to cover the spread and win the game outright. Fanboy, who cares. Here are the relevant facts:

• Detroit outgained New Orleans four weeks ago, not accounting for penalty yards.


• Detroit was missing three or four key defensive players four weeks ago, and still held New Orleans to it's lowest home point total.


• Matt Stafford was at the very end of his funk four weeks ago, and is now playing out of his mind.


• New Orleans is definitely the most overhyped team coming into round 1. Remember when they blew that stinker to St Louis? This is not the second coming of Touchdown Jesus.

I'm taking Detroit. I'm so confident that I emailed Bill Simmons and told him he was messing with a "Nobody believes in us" team because he was podcasting about whether the weather in San Francisco would mess with New Orleans.

And yes, I may have just doomed my team.

Steelers at Broncos (PIT by 9)

I'm flip flopping on this game. I already have one road team winning, so I don't need to take Pittsburgh. Ultimately, I'm going to take Pittsburgh, unfortunately, and here's why - I can't possibly go 0-4 3 years in a row. But now, if I do, I will have missed on two coin flip games (shrug), on my home team winning, and on Tebow. That' seems defensible for next year.

Go Lions!