NFL: Week 6 Review

Woo! Let's take a look at the picks (mine in italics, correct in bold):

Seahawks at Bears

Dolphins at Packers

Chargers at Rams

Ravens at Patriots

Lions at Giants

Falcons at Eagles

Browns at Steelers (lock)

Saints at Buccaneers

Chiefs at Texans

Jets at Broncos

Raiders at 49ers
Cowboys at Vikings

Colts at Redskins

Titans at Jaguars

Week: 10-4

Year: 50-40

Lock: 4-2

Upset: 1-5

Heck yeah, what a good weekend. I went 10-4, won my Fantasy game by .8 points, and looked nearly prescient. My Denver as upset pick was my sole heartbreaker; and that I blame on the rest of the country jumping on my bandwagon and picking the same upset. Here's a rule: if 90% of the country thinks it's an upset, 90% of the time it won't be. So my upset got... upset?

Let's look real quick at a few other NFL predictions; I already detailed how well I'm doing having picked the division winners.

Best Prediction:

Overhyped: Dallas Cowboys, New York Jets, and one of either: Green Bay, Baltimore, San Diego. At least two of those teams will miss the playoffs, but they're all ranked in the top 8 of Sports Illustrated's Power Rankings.

I nailed that, huh? Dallas and San Diego for sure, and possibly Green Bay.

Worst Prediction:

Ultra Surprise Dark Horse: Ladies and gentlemen, the Cleveland Browns!

A swing and a miss!

Writing

I've been musing about writing again for some time. I've been thinking about what I should be writing; which is encouraging. Too often I fall into the trap of I should be writing and stop thinking about the why or the content.

I see it on this blog. Other than my NFL posts, which aren't what I consider writing, the blog has been pretty sparse. Occasionally I'll break through and write something meaningful, but I'll confess that sometimes it feels like pulling teeth.

I've long believed that life moves in cycles. Specifically, my creative impulses move like the tides - there is a definite ebb and flow. I will go through a period where I absolutely devour books; another time where I am literally writing so much for the blog that I have to plan it out and think about what meshes well; and other times I'm very engrossed in gaming and strategic thoughts. Certainly, I do all of these at the same time; but one of them will tend to dominate my free time. For example, just because I'm reading a ton, doesn't mean I won't be playing Warhammer.

I think the cycles each represent something for me:

a) Reading is my input cycle. I devour books when I'm in this cycle. It's not uncommon for me to hit up a used book store and bring home four books of different genre's and read them in the space of a single weekend. I think this is what opens me up to new ideas and new thought processes. I let thoughts and concepts enter my brain and soak in.

b) Gaming is my vegetative cycle. I'm shutting down the input and output sections of my brain and testing what I've learned. Sometimes this plays out on a tabletop or in a video game; sometimes it just plays out in my imagination and thought processes. This is a period of testing; of divination; of sorting out the wheat from the chaffe.

c) Writing is the output cycle. After learning and after testing, I can go through a period where I find new ways to express and create what I've learned. I pour out what's been rattling around until I'm empty again.

Right now, I feel myself pulling out of the gaming cycle and moving towards a writing cycle. I'll still 'game' and still read, but I think I feel major creative potential welling. I'm planning to take advantage of that and write something; perhaps something more than can be contained on this blog. A few projects that have been more or less on hold:

1. Ashram - Needs a rewrite to get to a third draft.

2. My Mom's Story - Only ever wrote two chapters.

3. 337 - Mostly defunct at this point. Would need a few other life changes to get back to this.

4. Various Fictional Ideas - No work done besides preliminary dreaming and basic plotting.

Writing those out, my gut leans towards writing more of my Mom's story. That's hard, but the other projects seem harder in my mind. And it would be good to have this particular story out of the way. I think my goal will be to have something new completed (first draft) by Christmas.

Anyway, that's a bit of a peak into the creative process for me and a bit of my thought process currently. I would appreciate any encouragement you have!

NFL: Week 6 Picks

Before we make the week 6 picks, I have a few thoughts:

Here are the 09/10 Division winners: Dallas, Minnesota, New Orleans, Arizona, New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, San Diego. They are currently 17-17, and the only one currently leading their division is the horrid Arizona Cardinals.

Now imagine if... You picked your preseason division winners as the above list and you're only change was to take San Francisco and Pittsburgh (respectable preseason picks). Congrats, you are 15-20.

For the record, my divisional winners were Ravens, Chargers, Colts, Patriots, Saints, Packers, Eagles, and Cardinals. I'm 24-15.

The Picks:

Seahawks at Bears: Well, this is getting ridiculous. I can't keep making excuses for the Bears, who keep winning despite being the worst 4-1 team in history. They're soon to be the worst 5-1 team in history, because Seattle is even worse on the road. Another big game for Matt Forte.

Dolphins at Packers: Will Aaron Rodgers play? That effects my pick, I think. If it's Matt Flynn playing, I'll take the Dolphins. In fact, if Green Bay wasn't edging into mental desperation mode, I would still take them, but I think if Rodgers plays I'll take the Packers.

Chargers at Rams: San Diego is still pretty bad on the road. But I don't think Sam Bradford can put up the 400 yards or whatever to beat Philip Rivers. Bradford is good, but he's not great. Yet.

Ravens at Patriots: Ooh, tough game to pick. I'll take the Patriots (homefield).

Lions at Giants: Could the Lions win two in a row for the first time since 1903? Uh, nope. I hope Matt Stafford doesn't play this game - the Giants still have an ugly defense who would be only too happy to break another quarterback. Giants win.

Falcons at Eagles: I sense that if I hated the Falcons like I hate the Bears, I would find lots of reasons to doubt them... So I'll pick Philadelphia.

Browns at Steelers: Lock of the Week. Colt McCoy on the road at Pittsburgh... That should be pretty terrifying for Cleveland people.

Saints at Buccaneers: It amuses me to think that I could almost take this an upset by picking New Orleans. But yeah, New Orleans wins. (Tampa Bay has a better record than NO; isn't that insane?)

Chiefs at Texans: I still think the Chiefs fluked out for three games. Texans are a solid team and should win this one.

Jets at Broncos: Home field advantage, and Kyle Orton has already shown that he can shred a good passing defense. And the Jets didn't exactly shut down Flacco/Brady/Favre. I'll pick Bronco's in my Upset of the Week.

Raiders at 49ers: Classic let down game for Oakland, right? And San Francisco has to win eventually. Might as well take them now.

Cowboys at Vikings: Who is more desperate? Here's my real question - at what point will Favre just say "This is ridiculous. I'm retiring effective immediately." Week 8? 9? Seriously, he has no reputation left. He's no longer "having fun out there." And would he risk his starting streak ended by a sexting allegation? I think Dallas comes out and throttles him, and he decides to pack it up. Thursday Update: I change my pick to the Vikings. Gotta remember they won 34-3 last year.

Colts at Redskins: When will the Colts start playing like the Colts? Probably this week. I tell you what scares me though... I have no doubt that the Colts will win 10 straight every season. And if they don't start the season with that craziness, they're going to end with it.

Titans at Jaguars: The Jaguars aren't a good team, and Tennessee might be a great team. Titans have lost to Pittsburgh, who may be one of the best AFC teams, and to Denver - the game in which everyone started to realize that Kyle Orton might start shredding records this year. Kyle Freaking Orton. Anyway, I'll take the Titans.

I'll be reviewing more of my preseason predictions with the review of these picks next week. Enjoy!

NFL: Week 5 Review

Horrible weekend... Let's look at the picks (mine in italics, winner in bold)

Jaguars at Bills

Buccaneers at Bengals

Falcons at Browns

Rams at Lions

Chiefs at Colts

Packers at Redskins

Bears at Panthers

Broncos at Ravens (lock)

Giants at Texans

Saints at Cardinals

Titans at Cowboys

Chargers at Raiders

Eagles at 49ers

Vikings at Jets (upset)

Week Record: 5-9
Year Record: 40-36

Lock of the Week: 3-2

Upset of the Week: 1-4

0-4 Teams... I picked Detroit, San Francisco, and Carolina to win. Detroit did (largest victory margin since 1995, I think I read). On another note, I was 0-4 in fantasy and finally won. Pretty sure Buffalo will be the last winless team.

Fantasy Debate.... I picked up Kyle Orton at the season start for kicks and giggles... that's working out pretty well, I guess. Except I keep playing Flacco. I think I'm going to try and trade one this week for a solid running back to go with Matt Forte.

Week 6: I have no idea what to expect from this schizophrenic season. Maybe I should throw darts?

Goat?

Some of you may be asking why that Goat is ruining my profile picture. More mean spirited readers may be wondering why Andy is ruining that Goat's profile picture.

Well, the Goat (I have decided his name is Rufus) and I have decided to partner up and promote World Concern's Global Gift Guide. World Concern is a Christian World Relief Organization, and part of CRISTA Ministries, where I work.

The Global Gift Guide is just that - a guide to donating money to World Concern. Instead of your standard donation, you can elect to buy a gift for people in other countries. The gifts range in price and include chickens, vaccines, teaching, and yes, goats (amongst other things).

I encourage you to take a look and see if you'd like to donate anything this year. The Global Gift Guide is found here; if you specifically want to buy a goat, try here.

And no, Rufus is not for sale.

NFL: Bias Rankings

Welcome to the Original First Ever Bias Rankings!

They're just like power rankings, but intentionally skewed to the teams that I am biased towards or against. So at the higher end you'll have teams that I hate and thus tend to root and pick against. Lower numbers more directly correspond to teams that I root for. I'll be eschewing the regular picks column this week and just make quick picks at the end...

The Hell in a Handbasket Division

32. Chicago Bears

31. New York Jets

30. Pittsburgh Steelers

29. New York Giants

I'm not saying that I wish that these guys would be sucked into a black hole, but I probably won't be too upset if they do. Chicago is a division rival who get full of themselves at the drop of a hat. Pittsburgh has carryover from Dave Morgan and from the Penguins. And while you never need reasons to hate New York teams, the combination of A) Rex Ryan and B) the 2007 Superbowl don't help.

The DNA Level C Division

28. Cincinnati Bengals

27. Oakland Raiders

26. Seattle Seahawks

DNA Level C was a band from college made up of obnoxious jerks from Cleveland. It's Cleveland spelled backwards (this is the sound of my eyes rolling). No one really liked them, but they certainly liked each other. These teams are comprised of thugs and are generally hard to cheer for. Seattle joins this list this year with the addition of Pete Carroll.

The Nicholas Cage Division

25. Miami Dolphins

24. Atlanta Falcons

23. Arizona Cardinals

I'm not sure why I don't like Nicholas Cage. Maybe it's JUST the WAY he talks; randomly EMPHASIZING WORDS like he's having a VERBAL meltdown. In the same way, I'm not sure why I don't like these teams. Well, I do know Arizona burned me in my playoff picks a couple of years ago (I went 1-3 against them). Atlanta talked me into drafting Michael Turner last year (didn't really work out). And Miami? They have ugly uniforms.

The Biff Tannen Division:

22. Dallas Cowboys

21. Minnesota Vikings

Comically unlikable. No matter what, it's a joy to watch these teams get punched in the face or end up buried in manure.. Key Points: Tony Romo botching a field goal hold (great moment); Favre ending the 2009 season with an interception.

Mildly Disliked sort of like the way I mildly Dislike 7UP

20. Indianapolis Colts

19. San Francisco 49ers

18. Kansas City Chiefs

17. Washington Redskins

These teams are teams that for whatever reason, I just enjoy watching lose. I can't explain it. I think it might be because the Chiefs, 49ers, and Redskins have been mostly irrelevant the last few years. The Colts edge between here and Biff Tannen status; but ultimately its pretty hard to dislike a team that seems to actually have some values. At least to dislike them too much...

The Angelina Jolie Division:

16. St Louis Rams

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I used to like Angelina Jolie, but then I watched Mr and Mrs Smith with my dad and he... said things... that cannot be unheard. In the same way, I use to feel bad for these teams. As a Lions fan, I feel bad when teams end up below us in the standings. But now both these teams have 2 wins on the season - so they're relegated back to the trash heap.

"I Hear the Jury is still out on Science" Division

14. Jacksonville Jaguars

13. Houston Texans

12. Cleveland Browns

11. Buffalo Bills

Would anyone know if these teams were de-expanded? This year, maybe the Texans, but the jury is still out on them. In fact, whether NFL football is working in these teams is very much a tossup.

The Sawyer Division

10. Tennessee Titans

9. Baltimore Ravens

8. San Diego Chargers

7. New England Patriots

Sawyer was the jerk from Lost who everyone ended up loving by the end. These are all dirty arrogant teams, but dag nabbit, I can't help liking them.

The Michael Bay Division

6. Philadelphia Eagles

5. Denver Broncos

4. Green Bay Packers

Here's a secret: Michael Bay makes fun movies (shush! don't tell anyone). You could call this (and all of Bay's movies) the Guilty Pleasure Division - all of these teams I secretly enjoy watching and cheering for, but I'm not sure why. Philadelphia has that underdog feel; Denver is home of the retardably watchable Josh McDaniels (who at any moment may do something utterly boneheaded) and also the home of Kyle Orton, rejected-Chicago-Bear-currently-leading-in-passing-yardage. And Green Bay? Most everyone likes Green Bay; it's just not okay for me because they're a division rival.

The Couldn't Come Up With A Better Sounding Name than the New Orleans Division:

3. New Orleans Saints

I like Sean Payton... Any guy that would order an onside kick in the Super Bowl is alright with me. And how can you root against the city of New Orleans?

Teams I have to Root For

2. Carolina Panthers

1. Detroit Lions

I'm sort of from Carolina, so I like the Panthers. And I obviously enjoy the Lions. This used to work out for me, because it meant I had my crappy home team, but also a respectable team that I could root for. Now they're both crappy. Sigh.

Quick Picks:

Jaguars

Bengals

Falcons

Lions

Colts

Packers

Panthers

Ravens (lock)

Texans

Saints

Cowboys

Chargers

49ers

Vikings (upset)

Bonus College Pick: U of M over MSU.

NFL: Week 4 Review

Thrilling finishes all around! Unless you lived in a Seattle market, in which case you (I) got to watch, in succession, Seattle, Philadelphia, and Chicago all roll over. The three games I watched had an average of 12 points between the winners and losers.

The rest of the games? A 4 point differential if you throw out the Jets and Chargers games. (I'm writing this Monday Morning, so MNF hasn't been taken into account). God hates Seattle!

49ers at Falcons

Jets at Bills

Bengals at Browns

Lions at Packers

Broncos at Titans

Seahawks at Rams

Panthers at Saints

Ravens at Steelers

Texans at Raiders

Colts at Jaguars

Redskins at Eagles

Cardinals at Chargers

Bears at Giants

Patriots at Dolphins

Week: 8-6

Record: 35-27

Upset of the Week: 1-3

Lock of the Week: 2-2

Thrilling Finishes, Part One: Not that I'm bitter about missing good football, but the Ravens beat the Steelers in the last minute, helping me make my pick!

Thrilling Finishes, Part Two: The following teams lost in the final minute to help me lose my picks: Colts, Titans, and most heartbreakingly the 49ers (my upset of the week bid)

Not So Thrilling Finishes: The Saints, Packers, and Redskins sure made those last few minutes interesting, huh? Not that I got to watch.

Comebacks: I wrote to watch how Chargers, Saints, and Packers bounced back. They all won, and so did the Giants, Broncos, and the Browns. They all had pretty ugly week 3's (NO being the exception) and won in week 4.