Overhyped: Dallas Cowboys, New York Jets, and one of either: Green Bay, Baltimore, San Diego. At least two of those teams will miss the playoffs, but they're all ranked in the top 8 of Sports Illustrated's Power Rankings.
Big Drops: Pittsburgh, Arizona. Each may drop two to three more games this year.
Surprise Playoffs: Every year a couple of teams surprise everyone and make the playoffs, and I have a few picks. My ultra dark horse is below, but I think it's possible that Houston or Carolina could make the playoffs.
Lots of news but ultimately No Change: Seattle and Denver. Carroll won't change anything in one year, and Denver is too caught up in Tebowmania to realize that they're still mediocre at best.
Worst Team: Toss up between Tampa Bay and Buffalo (aren't you glad for one year it doesn't say Detroit?). Probably Tampa Bay.
Rookie Impact: Sam Bradford will be a rookie qb, so don't expect too much. Maybe he'll be the most unflappable rookie quarterback since Matt Stafford! Ndamukong Suh should be a marvel on Detroit; but the smart money is on Ryan Matthews in San Diego.
Detroit: Improves, but not a ton. Maybe challenges Chicago for third in the division.
Quarterbacks: You can't go wrong with Flacco, Brady, Manning, Rivers, Brees, or Rodgers. Expect those six to contain the top five quarterbacks. Flacco and Rodgers are high on everyone's list; and Brady/Manning have slipped a little bit in value the last year. Brees is possibly twice cursed (Superbowl Hangover / Madden). Rivers is probably the safest bet, followed by Brady/Manning.
Ultra Surprise Dark Horse: Ladies and gentlemen, the Cleveland Browns! 9-7 wins the Browns a playoff spot (I'm thinking the competition is down a little in the AFC this year). Looking at their schedule, they play the Bucs, Chiefs, Bengals twice, Jags, Panthers, and Bills. Those are all potential W's - 7 so far. Definite losses to Ravens twice, Saints, and Pats - 4 total. That leaves five games up for grabs (by my guess) - two to Pittsburgh (one with potentially no Roethlisberger), Falcons, Dolphins, and Jets. Eke out two of those games (Dolphins / Steelers perhaps) and bam, you're 9-7. I think Jake Delhomme has a resurgent year and the Browns get a surprise playoff berth, and then get crushed in the playoffs to make sure Cleveland can't have nice things.
AFC Playoff Picture: Ravens and Chargers win their division and byes. Colts and Patriots win their division. Browns and Texans are the wildcards.
First round is a cake walk, as NE and IND easily advance. Next round is brutal! We'll put the Patriots and Raven's in the AFC championship, and Raven's advance to the Superbowl.
NFC Playoff Picture: Saints and Packers win divisions and byes. The other two divisions are crapshoots, but I'll take Arizona and Philadelphia. Then we have Carolina and Minnesota rounding out the wildcards.
Philadelphia and Minnesota advance, setting up Armageddon: Minnesota at Green Bay. Philly loses to New Orleans. So it's Green Bay at New Orleans for the NFC championship - which, regardless, should be an amazing fun game to watch. New Orleans wins.
Superbowl: New Orleans repeats. Wow, did I really just write that?
Fantasy Football: Will have an entire article/post dedicated to it, upcoming.
2 comments:
your NFL preview is about 20,000 words shorter than mine, but still very worthwhile.
For your overhyped teams, I agree with the Jets but can't see Baltimore, Dallas or Green Bay missing the playoffs. San Diego maybe, but they could win the AFC West at 7-9. New England should be on that list.
How do you have Flacco as a top 6 quarterback and not Matt Ryan who is clearly better?
Even if Brees avoids the curses, the Saints still don't have much of a defense or a great running game. They might make the playoffs but you're crazy to call put them in the Super Bowl.
And lastly, how do you have Matt Leinart in the playoffs??
I have Matt Leinart because I don't see San Francisco catching Arizona yet.
Did the Saints have much of a defense or running game last year?
Flacco picked up Boldin this year. I can't remember if Matt Ryan got any solid upgrades....
I'm never sold on Dallas. Don't really know why.
I try to look at big pictures when it comes to the NFL - what teams are trending up, trending down, what picks are trendy, etc. Trendy picks don't usually work out very well - thus the reason I put Jets/Baltimore/Dallas/GB/San Diego on that list. Those are all trendy picks that everyone agrees will be in the post season.
My number one rule in life: if everyone agrees on something, they're wrong. Because most everyone is dumb.
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