NFL: Week 9 Picks

63-54 right now. Effectively tied with Dave Morgan. (A tie is like kissing your sister). Let's look at the picks for Week 9.

Buccaneers at Falcons: I'll take the Falcons. As Dave pointed out, Bucs haven't beaten anyone of note yet.

Bears at Bills: Jeez, who knows. Buffalo is terrible, but they have been quite frisky the past few weeks. Buffalo has the worst rushing defense in the NFL, allowing 188 yards a game. But, this is Mike Martz, who may never run the ball, instead throwing against what is the 6th?!? best pass defense in the game. And, repeat the mantra - don't back crappy teams on the road. Can I make this a conditional pick? If Matt Forte gets less than 17 carries, Buffalo wins. Otherwise Chicago.

Patriots at Browns: I don't think the Browns have two major upsets in them this year, do you? I'll take Brady.

Jets at Lions: Everything points to a Lions loss. They haven't won back to back games in forty years. Jets are a little embarassed. And Defense trumps Offense. And AFC trumps NFC. I could go on, but I'll just take the Jets and be extremely happy if I'm wrong.

Cardinals at Vikings: I had to laugh at Dave's blog, where he wrote that there weren't any crazy headlines for this game. Oh, so Childress releasing Moss without letting the owner of the team know isn't a headline? I think Vikes will win this one and relieve a tiny bit of pressure off Childress.

Saints at Panthers: Um, Saints.

Dolphins at Ravens: Unstoppable road team meats... good-to-great team? Ultimately, this is a dangerous game for both teams, but I'll take the home team.

Chargers at Texans: I shouldn't back a crappy team on the road, but the Chargers may be the best 3-5 team in history, right? I guess I'll take San Diego as my Upset?

Giants at Seahawks: Seattle isn't a good team. The Giants may be the best team in the NFC. Easy enough. Oh, and watch for Charlie Whitehurst once Hasselbeck gets ripped in half! That's my Lock.

Chiefs at Raiders: Flip a coin. I'll take Raiders at home.

Colts at Eagles: I want to say Colts are due for a letdown, but I'm done picking against them. Colts.

Cowboys at Packers: This game looks like it's headed for fluke territory. The Cowboys are terrible, but couldn't you see them coming out and be embarassingly good in a sunday night game? Couldn't you? No. I guess not. Take the Packers.

Steelers at Bengals: Monday night game - I do wonder if this could be a game that TO and Ochocinco might thrive in. And then I remember that they're still be thrown to by Carson Palmer. So I'll stay safe and take the Steelers.

In Fantasy, I'm 4-0 the last 4 weeks. I sense this week won't be as good though. Have to hope for big games from Joe Flacco, Roddy White, Matt Forte, and (gulp) Darren Sproles or Deangelo Williams

Doing the Guest Post Deal

Hola loyal readers!

Today I'm blogging at Journey of a Dad. Come over and read it!

(P.S. No, I'm not a dad yet.)

NFl: Week 8 Review

Overall a good week: here's the review (my picks in italics, winners in bold).

Dolphins at Bengals
Jaguars at Cowboys (lock)
Redskins at Lions
Bills at Chiefs
Panthers at Rams
Packers at Jets
Broncos at 49ers
Titans at Chargers
Seahawks at Raiders
Vikings at Patriots
Buccaneers at Cardinals
Steelers at Saints

Week: 9-3
Year: 63-53
Lock: 4-4
Upset: 1-6

Still Upcoming:
Texans at Colts (upset)


To clarify, I did take the Texans. I realize that the end of my picks post could have been interpreted as a Colts pick, but I am taking the Texans as an upset.

Also, my fluke of the week didn't turn out to be that fluky, I guess. Fluke of the week probably should have gone to Green Bay / NYJ - who would have predicted that game?

In Fantasy Football, I'm going to win my fourth game in a row if Donald brown doesn't score 17 more points than Jacoby Jones tonight. I'm only at 72 points; I think I have a tremendous luck streak going. Look at it like this - I had Felix Jones, Randy Moss, Nick Folk, and Hines Ward starting. I think those four spots totalled 5 points. But then I got monster games from Marcedes Lewis and the Oakland Raiders Defense, and mediocre games from Kyle Orton and Darren Sproles (my backup backup RB). Weird.

NFL: Week 8 Picks

I'm having an up and down year. Two weeks ago, I went 5-9. One week ago, 10-4. This week, 4-10. Does this mean I'm due for another up week?

In fantasy, I started the season with a 4 game winless streak, and am now on a three game winning streak.This week, my MVP Roddy White is on a bye, along with "Matt good when Mike Martz remembers he's there Forte." So I've put in Jacoby Jones (definite underperformer this year, but NFL.com still predicts he'll get 15 points this week?) and Felix Jones. Dallas has to go to Felix with Romo out, right? Right?!?

A few things I'm thinking about this week, a few principles... The first and foremost is something Bill Simmons says. Don't be a hero - just try to win money. I'm not going to overthink my picks. The second principle? Don't back a crappy team on the road. If I had gone with this piece of common sense, I wouldn't have taken Jags, Rams, 49ers, Cards, or the Vikings. That's a five game swing.

On to the picks:

Dolphins at Bengals: I guess I'll take the Dolphins, who are pretty good on the road. Shrug. I'm also listing this as my Fluke of the Week. Who knows what will happen? But I think this is the game that has the most potential to have the weirdest outcome.

Jaguars at Cowboys: Jaguars are a crappy team, on the road. So I take Dallas. Also, Lock.

Redskins at Lions: Gonna take the Lions... Washington is a semi crappy team, and Donovan McNabb is secretly terrible this year; but no one notices because Washington is still doing better than expected.

Bills at Chiefs: Don't over think it. Take the Chiefs.

Panthers at Rams: Crappy team on the road. St Louis lost devastating last week, should rebound.

Packers at Jets: Two big principles in play: 1) when in doubt, take the home team and 2) when in doubt, take the AFC team.

Broncos at 49ers: I'm gonna break my rule already and take the Broncos. Geez, that sounds dumb. I wonder if I'm taking the Broncos so much because I have Kyle Orton in fantasy. But San Francisco is 1-6. Actually, I'm changing my pick right here to San Fran. Don't back crappy teams on the road. Say it with me!

Titans at Chargers: The Titans are bound to throw a game, and the Chargers are bound to win one by sheer talent, eventually, right?

Seahawks at Raiders: Repeat the mantra. I'm so tempted, because this is a classic let down game for Oakland, right? But Seattle can't win on the road. Unless they play Chicago. Who sucks.

Vikings at Patriots: Randy Moss is bound to have a huge game, but New England doesn't have the media ridiculousness (for once). This game scares me because eventually I think Brett Favre will singlehandedly win a game; I just don't know if it's here and now.

Buccaneers at Cardinals: Easy enough, because Buc's just won an emotional game on the last play or whatever, so they're due for a let down. I also think they're better at home then away.

Steelers at Saints: Remember for the GB/NYJ game when I listed two principles? They are at odds here... Home team vs AFC team. Ultimately, I think Pittsburgh realizes they escaped Miami barely and New Orleans is angry about losing to Cleveland. I think New Orleans can win this one.

Texans at Colts: And here we go... I'm gonna do it. I'm gonna play against Manning in a night game. I'm going to take the Texans as an upset. Screw that "don't be a hero."

Wisdom

As you may know, I work for a Skilled Nursing Facility. One of the other staff members is our chaplain, Dave Passey. Dave shared yesterday from James 3:17, and particularly 7 qualities of wisdom, which I have reproduced below:

1. · Pure: Untainted by selfish motives.
2. · Peaceable: Diffuses conflict and brings the peace of Christ.
3. · Gentle: Seeks to understand before judging.
4. · Willing to yield: Not insistent on its own viewpoint.
5. · Full of mercy and good fruit: Showing patience and willing to give others space.
6. · Impartial: Shows no favoritism.
7. · Without hypocrisy: Lives a life of integrity, i.e. walks the talk.

I chose to put this on here today because I feel it's important to meditate on, because there is a veritable difference between Intelligence and Wisdom.

One of the gifts I have is intelligence. There is no real way to say this and sound humble, but the truth I very rarely do not feel more intelligent than anyone else in the room. It actually throws me off my edge when I'm in the company of someone who is smarter than me.

But I definitely don't have much wisdom some times. I make lots of mistakes that should be easy to see coming. And I think that comes from a realm of dealing with people (wisdom) versus a realm of the physical world (intelligence). I think you can see that most of those points above refer to relationships with people, rather than relationships with things.

Here's what I mean: Intelligence can tell me that someone needs encouragement. Wisdom can tell me how and when to encourage them. In some ways, Wisdom makes intelligence superfluous. If you can successfully understand the people around you, you can go far.

Most successful leaders are people of wisdom. Most successful managers are people of intelligence. I think I would be pretty successful as a manager but not that successful as a leader.

So that's one of my goals; to go from doing well with the world around me to doing well with the people around me.

NFL: Week 7 Review

Shrug. I told you it was a pick em affair. I think next week I'll start a new type of pick, to replace the long forgotten x-factor - the Fluke of the Week (this week: Oakland!)

Bengals at Falcons

Redskins at Bears

Eagles at Titans

Jaguars at Chiefs

Steelers at Dolphins

Browns at Saints

Rams at Buccaneers

49ers at Panthers

Bills at Ravens

Cardinals at Seahawks

Raiders at Broncos

Patriots at Chargers (Upset)

Vikings at Packers

Giants at Cowboys (Lock)

Week: 4-10

Year: 54-50

Lock: 4-3

Upset: 1-6

NFL: Week 7 Picks

Quite the slate of weird games this week. I think it's entirely possible to misread the week and end up with another 6-10 or 5-11 week. 10 of the 14 games have spreads of less than 5 points. Ah randomness, to the picks.

Bengals at Falcons: See, this is a game I don't know about. I wonder if Carson Palmer could rebound. But I also think the Falcons could rebound. The line for the game is ATL +4; I think I'll take Atlanta. Homefield wins in case of doubt.

Redskins at Bears: Jeez, two games in a row. Raise your hand if you think the Bears are any good. Now raise your hand if you think the Redskins are any good. Washington lost a close one to Indianapolis; and the Bears looked horrible against the Seahawks. If I was to guess, I would think Mike Martz will do the smart thing and actually use Matt Forte again. But Washington has to see that coming.... BAH! I'll take Bears.

Eagles at Titans: Both teams came off impressive wins last week. But I still think the Titans may be a great rough team in the making, so I'll take them.

Jaguars at Chiefs: The first 8 teams so far have been maddeningly imprecise. Who knows in any of these picks? Seriously, flip a coin. A hometeam gets three points for being a hometeam, and ATL is +4, Bears and Titans are +3. And Chiefs/Jags are even. I'm going to pick the Jaguars though; big rebound game for MJD.

Steelers at Dolphins: Now we start to get some games that are easier to pick. Steelers. Miami hasn't beaten anyone of importance yet (Minn? Green Bay? Buffalo?).

Browns at Saints: Ooh, possible trap game? Or are the Saints back to form? This is a good litmus test. If the Browns stay in or win this game, I think we can probably safely write off New Orleans. Since I'm not ready for that, I'll pick the Saints. (Maybe the Madden curse is hitting the players around Drew Brees, huh?)

Rams at Buccaneers: Can you believe these teams are both decent this year? And the winner has a decent look at the playoffs? I'm picking St Louis. I think they're a more complete team.

49ers at Panthers: Homedog syndrome. So I'll take Carolina... Crickets chirp. Wait, that's a dumb idea. I'll take San Francisco.

Bills at Ravens: Championship teams blow out these sort of games. See what the Jets did to Buffalo a few weeks ago, now realize that the Ravens are better than the Jets. I pick the Ravens.

Cardinals at Seahawks: Does anyone know if either of these teams are even average? I guess I'll take Arizona; Seattle didn't win last week, Chicago lost.

Raiders at Broncos: Denver, by a mile. They're getting desperate. (Side note: are they perhaps the most fun team to watch right now? They basically run a Madden videogame offense and every game seems to end on the last play.)

Patriots at Chargers: I'm gonna maybe cheat a little and take San Diego as my Upset. Patriots are traveling across the coast and just won an emotional game against the Ravens.

Vikings at Packers: Armageddon. Is Brett distracted? Is he finally going to have a Favre game where he throws a ton of passes that miraculously get caught? I think I'll take the Vikings. They played a solid game and let Dallas beat themselves; and I think it will help their confidence this week.

Giants at Cowboys: Giants are getting a little too full of themselves, so I'll take Dallas as the Lock.