Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Week 4: 85 Million Years Ago, Detroit and Buffalo also went 3-0

I watched Terra Nova last night, and enjoyed it. I'm a sucker for dinosaurs. That being said, there is one gigantic plot hole I noticed. If the time travel portal/fracture thing is a one way trip to a different universe, how did they discover it? It's not like Stephen Lang could send back a notice that "hey, it's okay, just send some dino-repellent," - it's a one way trip!

Are there similar plot holes in the remaining 3-0 teams? Sure.

Green Bay - Green Bay is winning, most assuredly. But they haven't actually put a team away yet. New Orleans had a chance to win; Carolina kept it worringly close; and Chicago would have been threatening if not for a phantom holding call on that amazing punt return play. Once Green Bay has a 14 point lead, they seem to fall asleep. Keep an eye on Kyle Orton keeping the game close this week.

Detroit - Detroit is 3-0 for the first time since 1980. But the opponents they've beaten are 2-7. Let's not jump out of our seats yet. Dallas should post a good challenge - after all, Dallas has as many wins as the total of the Lions opponents through three weeks.

Buffalo - Buffalo biggest problem is their hype. They (by benefit of beating the Patriots) are the most hyped team in the league right now (which leaves Detroit feeling good). Oh, and they haven't played a defense yet.

Let's move on to the Week 3 Review:

Week 3 Correct Picks: Buffalo, San Fran, Miami, Minnesota, Carolina, Oakland, Baltimore, Green Bay, Seattle, Tampa Bay,
Week 3 Incorrect Picks: Tennessee, Houston (Upset 1-2), Philadelphia, San Diego, Pittsburgh (Lock 1-2), Washington
Week 3: 10-6
Season So Far: 27-19-2

Week 4 Games:
Carolina at Chicago (Chi by 7): We'll read all week long about how Chicago will be going to a more rush oriented offense... and then they're going to throw 90% of the time. I like Cam Newton to keep it close.
Buffalo at Cincinnati (Buf by 3): This has the makings of a classic letdown game; but can you imagine Cincy keeping within 3 of Buffalo's offense? I'll take Buffalo here.
Tennessee at Cleveland (Cle by 1): Wow, Cleveland by 1? Interesting line here. I was all prepared to take Tennessee for quite awhile (and even pick up Matt Hasselbeck in at least one league), but the injury to Britt has scared me off for a little bit. Cleveland is at home, but I can't help but think is the game where CJ takes off. I'll pick Ten as my upset.
Detroit at Dallas (Dal by 2): Last week, I vowed to keep picking against Detroit as long as they were winning, because I'm superstitious. Well, because ESPN.com had the line at 4 for Detroit, I actually made my pick last week. However, I have to keep the streak going and pick Dallas here.
Minnesota at Kansas City (Min by 2): Minnesota and Kansas City - the two unluckiest teams of 2011? Minnesota can hang with good teams in the first half; and I don't think KC is up to mounting a comeback. Although how amazing would it be if Minny bungled another double digit lead? I take Min here anyway.
Washington at St Louis (N/A): I can't find the line for this game, or it's a pick em. Can't quite tell. I like St Louis, because they're at home and in desperation mode.
San Francisco at Philadelphia (N/A): No line, obviously. Either way, take Philadelphia. Just imagine poor Alex Smith trying to throw against Samuel, Asomugha, Rodgers-Cromartie. Not a pretty sight.
New Orleans at Jacksonville (NO by 8): Good line. I like New Orleans in this matchup; ten points feels like an easy score to win by. Gabbert may have a surprisingly good day - 240 yards, 2 tds, 2 picks is my guess.
Pittsburgh at Houston (Hou by 4): I'm a subscriber in the "Houston is a tease" philosophy. Once Pitt wins here, the frantic "Could Houston really have suckered us in again?" blogs will appear.
NY Giants at Arizona (NYG by 1): Don't pick NFC west teams. NYG.
Atlanta at Seattle (ATL by 6): Two contrary impulses in me regarding this game: Seattle wins at home by an average of 5-6 points. But last week they won because Arizona missed two field goals. Tarvaris Jackson couldn't do anything against Arizona's pass coverage - which was horrendous! Here's a new rule: don't back NFC West teams unless they're playing another NFC West team. So I'll take Atlanta.
Denver at Green Bay (GB by 13): Green Bay hasn't put anyone away yet. Kyle Orton isn't bad, and the Bronco's should be able to manage a back door cover.
New England at Oakland (NE by 5): Man, Darren McFadden is looking awesome! I have him in two leagues, and he's pretty much winning me games by himself. New England is probably just a bit embarassed right now, and Oakland a little full of themselves, so I'll take New England as my Lock.
Miami at San Diego (SD by 9): When is Philip Rivers going to singlehandedly start his MVP campaign? I tell you what - if he doesn't blow out Miami here, I'm writing off the MVP and also predicting San Diego's under for the rest of the year. One more chance, Rivers. And no, I'm not bitter that I have your receivers on all of my fantasy teams.
NY Jets at Baltimore (Bal by 4): I'm a little too partial to Baltimore and a little too biased against NY. I like Baltimore to win here, but NY to cover.
Indianapolis at Tampa Bay (TB by 10): Tampa isn't the type of team to blow out another team. So I'm taking the under; ten points is about 4 points too high for me.

Fantasy Review:
CRISTAball: 103-59 victory. In such a thin league, one superstar like Darren McFadden makes quite a difference.
Emerald City Eight: I guessed right that Gates wasn't playing and signed Fred Davis. Didn't end up needing him; as I won by 20 points anyway. I'm not proud, as my opponents highest two scorers were his kicker and his defense. Should I start Fred Jackson over MJD for week 4?
Go Lions: Solid 30 point win here, despite Vick. I have my toughest matchup so far, against 3-0 Iron City. I have some gaping holes in my lineup - I only have 3 starting running backs, and one of them is Joseph Addai. Also, my QB's are Vick and Bradford, so thing's don't look great there. I'm hoping to snooker a sucker into a trade. I don't know what those words mean.

1 comment:

David Morgan said...

Excellent batch of picks this week. I'm interested in checking out Terra Nova as well. Have you seen 'Man of Interest' or whatever it's called, starring Benjamin Linus? I watched it last week; decent show, some potential, but awesome to see Michael Emerson being a bug-eyed billionare creep.

This week is by far the Lions' hardest game yet. I'm super nervous.

27-19 through 3 weeks is amazing. I like your no-nonsense strategy, it seems to work better than my 'analyze the game into dust' strategy.

I would snooker you a running back but I can't imagine parting with Fred or LeSean right now. And I didn't think you'd be interested in the Panther duo. But if you are ... I'll take VJack off your hands and throw in an AJ Green.