I don't even know what to say:
Former Mars Hill Pastor teams up with Former Lost Showrunner to create new spiritual tv series.
Friday, September 30, 2011
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Week 4: 85 Million Years Ago, Detroit and Buffalo also went 3-0
I watched Terra Nova last night, and enjoyed it. I'm a sucker for dinosaurs. That being said, there is one gigantic plot hole I noticed. If the time travel portal/fracture thing is a one way trip to a different universe, how did they discover it? It's not like Stephen Lang could send back a notice that "hey, it's okay, just send some dino-repellent," - it's a one way trip!
Are there similar plot holes in the remaining 3-0 teams? Sure.
Green Bay - Green Bay is winning, most assuredly. But they haven't actually put a team away yet. New Orleans had a chance to win; Carolina kept it worringly close; and Chicago would have been threatening if not for a phantom holding call on that amazing punt return play. Once Green Bay has a 14 point lead, they seem to fall asleep. Keep an eye on Kyle Orton keeping the game close this week.
Detroit - Detroit is 3-0 for the first time since 1980. But the opponents they've beaten are 2-7. Let's not jump out of our seats yet. Dallas should post a good challenge - after all, Dallas has as many wins as the total of the Lions opponents through three weeks.
Buffalo - Buffalo biggest problem is their hype. They (by benefit of beating the Patriots) are the most hyped team in the league right now (which leaves Detroit feeling good). Oh, and they haven't played a defense yet.
Let's move on to the Week 3 Review:
Week 3 Correct Picks: Buffalo, San Fran, Miami, Minnesota, Carolina, Oakland, Baltimore, Green Bay, Seattle, Tampa Bay,
Week 3 Incorrect Picks: Tennessee, Houston (Upset 1-2), Philadelphia, San Diego, Pittsburgh (Lock 1-2), Washington
Week 3: 10-6
Season So Far: 27-19-2
Week 4 Games:
Carolina at Chicago (Chi by 7): We'll read all week long about how Chicago will be going to a more rush oriented offense... and then they're going to throw 90% of the time. I like Cam Newton to keep it close.
Buffalo at Cincinnati (Buf by 3): This has the makings of a classic letdown game; but can you imagine Cincy keeping within 3 of Buffalo's offense? I'll take Buffalo here.
Tennessee at Cleveland (Cle by 1): Wow, Cleveland by 1? Interesting line here. I was all prepared to take Tennessee for quite awhile (and even pick up Matt Hasselbeck in at least one league), but the injury to Britt has scared me off for a little bit. Cleveland is at home, but I can't help but think is the game where CJ takes off. I'll pick Ten as my upset.
Detroit at Dallas (Dal by 2): Last week, I vowed to keep picking against Detroit as long as they were winning, because I'm superstitious. Well, because ESPN.com had the line at 4 for Detroit, I actually made my pick last week. However, I have to keep the streak going and pick Dallas here.
Minnesota at Kansas City (Min by 2): Minnesota and Kansas City - the two unluckiest teams of 2011? Minnesota can hang with good teams in the first half; and I don't think KC is up to mounting a comeback. Although how amazing would it be if Minny bungled another double digit lead? I take Min here anyway.
Washington at St Louis (N/A): I can't find the line for this game, or it's a pick em. Can't quite tell. I like St Louis, because they're at home and in desperation mode.
San Francisco at Philadelphia (N/A): No line, obviously. Either way, take Philadelphia. Just imagine poor Alex Smith trying to throw against Samuel, Asomugha, Rodgers-Cromartie. Not a pretty sight.
New Orleans at Jacksonville (NO by 8): Good line. I like New Orleans in this matchup; ten points feels like an easy score to win by. Gabbert may have a surprisingly good day - 240 yards, 2 tds, 2 picks is my guess.
Pittsburgh at Houston (Hou by 4): I'm a subscriber in the "Houston is a tease" philosophy. Once Pitt wins here, the frantic "Could Houston really have suckered us in again?" blogs will appear.
NY Giants at Arizona (NYG by 1): Don't pick NFC west teams. NYG.
Atlanta at Seattle (ATL by 6): Two contrary impulses in me regarding this game: Seattle wins at home by an average of 5-6 points. But last week they won because Arizona missed two field goals. Tarvaris Jackson couldn't do anything against Arizona's pass coverage - which was horrendous! Here's a new rule: don't back NFC West teams unless they're playing another NFC West team. So I'll take Atlanta.
Denver at Green Bay (GB by 13): Green Bay hasn't put anyone away yet. Kyle Orton isn't bad, and the Bronco's should be able to manage a back door cover.
New England at Oakland (NE by 5): Man, Darren McFadden is looking awesome! I have him in two leagues, and he's pretty much winning me games by himself. New England is probably just a bit embarassed right now, and Oakland a little full of themselves, so I'll take New England as my Lock.
Miami at San Diego (SD by 9): When is Philip Rivers going to singlehandedly start his MVP campaign? I tell you what - if he doesn't blow out Miami here, I'm writing off the MVP and also predicting San Diego's under for the rest of the year. One more chance, Rivers. And no, I'm not bitter that I have your receivers on all of my fantasy teams.
NY Jets at Baltimore (Bal by 4): I'm a little too partial to Baltimore and a little too biased against NY. I like Baltimore to win here, but NY to cover.
Indianapolis at Tampa Bay (TB by 10): Tampa isn't the type of team to blow out another team. So I'm taking the under; ten points is about 4 points too high for me.
Fantasy Review:
CRISTAball: 103-59 victory. In such a thin league, one superstar like Darren McFadden makes quite a difference.
Emerald City Eight: I guessed right that Gates wasn't playing and signed Fred Davis. Didn't end up needing him; as I won by 20 points anyway. I'm not proud, as my opponents highest two scorers were his kicker and his defense. Should I start Fred Jackson over MJD for week 4?
Go Lions: Solid 30 point win here, despite Vick. I have my toughest matchup so far, against 3-0 Iron City. I have some gaping holes in my lineup - I only have 3 starting running backs, and one of them is Joseph Addai. Also, my QB's are Vick and Bradford, so thing's don't look great there. I'm hoping to snooker a sucker into a trade. I don't know what those words mean.
Are there similar plot holes in the remaining 3-0 teams? Sure.
Green Bay - Green Bay is winning, most assuredly. But they haven't actually put a team away yet. New Orleans had a chance to win; Carolina kept it worringly close; and Chicago would have been threatening if not for a phantom holding call on that amazing punt return play. Once Green Bay has a 14 point lead, they seem to fall asleep. Keep an eye on Kyle Orton keeping the game close this week.
Detroit - Detroit is 3-0 for the first time since 1980. But the opponents they've beaten are 2-7. Let's not jump out of our seats yet. Dallas should post a good challenge - after all, Dallas has as many wins as the total of the Lions opponents through three weeks.
Buffalo - Buffalo biggest problem is their hype. They (by benefit of beating the Patriots) are the most hyped team in the league right now (which leaves Detroit feeling good). Oh, and they haven't played a defense yet.
Let's move on to the Week 3 Review:
Week 3 Correct Picks: Buffalo, San Fran, Miami, Minnesota, Carolina, Oakland, Baltimore, Green Bay, Seattle, Tampa Bay,
Week 3 Incorrect Picks: Tennessee, Houston (Upset 1-2), Philadelphia, San Diego, Pittsburgh (Lock 1-2), Washington
Week 3: 10-6
Season So Far: 27-19-2
Week 4 Games:
Carolina at Chicago (Chi by 7): We'll read all week long about how Chicago will be going to a more rush oriented offense... and then they're going to throw 90% of the time. I like Cam Newton to keep it close.
Buffalo at Cincinnati (Buf by 3): This has the makings of a classic letdown game; but can you imagine Cincy keeping within 3 of Buffalo's offense? I'll take Buffalo here.
Tennessee at Cleveland (Cle by 1): Wow, Cleveland by 1? Interesting line here. I was all prepared to take Tennessee for quite awhile (and even pick up Matt Hasselbeck in at least one league), but the injury to Britt has scared me off for a little bit. Cleveland is at home, but I can't help but think is the game where CJ takes off. I'll pick Ten as my upset.
Detroit at Dallas (Dal by 2): Last week, I vowed to keep picking against Detroit as long as they were winning, because I'm superstitious. Well, because ESPN.com had the line at 4 for Detroit, I actually made my pick last week. However, I have to keep the streak going and pick Dallas here.
Minnesota at Kansas City (Min by 2): Minnesota and Kansas City - the two unluckiest teams of 2011? Minnesota can hang with good teams in the first half; and I don't think KC is up to mounting a comeback. Although how amazing would it be if Minny bungled another double digit lead? I take Min here anyway.
Washington at St Louis (N/A): I can't find the line for this game, or it's a pick em. Can't quite tell. I like St Louis, because they're at home and in desperation mode.
San Francisco at Philadelphia (N/A): No line, obviously. Either way, take Philadelphia. Just imagine poor Alex Smith trying to throw against Samuel, Asomugha, Rodgers-Cromartie. Not a pretty sight.
New Orleans at Jacksonville (NO by 8): Good line. I like New Orleans in this matchup; ten points feels like an easy score to win by. Gabbert may have a surprisingly good day - 240 yards, 2 tds, 2 picks is my guess.
Pittsburgh at Houston (Hou by 4): I'm a subscriber in the "Houston is a tease" philosophy. Once Pitt wins here, the frantic "Could Houston really have suckered us in again?" blogs will appear.
NY Giants at Arizona (NYG by 1): Don't pick NFC west teams. NYG.
Atlanta at Seattle (ATL by 6): Two contrary impulses in me regarding this game: Seattle wins at home by an average of 5-6 points. But last week they won because Arizona missed two field goals. Tarvaris Jackson couldn't do anything against Arizona's pass coverage - which was horrendous! Here's a new rule: don't back NFC West teams unless they're playing another NFC West team. So I'll take Atlanta.
Denver at Green Bay (GB by 13): Green Bay hasn't put anyone away yet. Kyle Orton isn't bad, and the Bronco's should be able to manage a back door cover.
New England at Oakland (NE by 5): Man, Darren McFadden is looking awesome! I have him in two leagues, and he's pretty much winning me games by himself. New England is probably just a bit embarassed right now, and Oakland a little full of themselves, so I'll take New England as my Lock.
Miami at San Diego (SD by 9): When is Philip Rivers going to singlehandedly start his MVP campaign? I tell you what - if he doesn't blow out Miami here, I'm writing off the MVP and also predicting San Diego's under for the rest of the year. One more chance, Rivers. And no, I'm not bitter that I have your receivers on all of my fantasy teams.
NY Jets at Baltimore (Bal by 4): I'm a little too partial to Baltimore and a little too biased against NY. I like Baltimore to win here, but NY to cover.
Indianapolis at Tampa Bay (TB by 10): Tampa isn't the type of team to blow out another team. So I'm taking the under; ten points is about 4 points too high for me.
Fantasy Review:
CRISTAball: 103-59 victory. In such a thin league, one superstar like Darren McFadden makes quite a difference.
Emerald City Eight: I guessed right that Gates wasn't playing and signed Fred Davis. Didn't end up needing him; as I won by 20 points anyway. I'm not proud, as my opponents highest two scorers were his kicker and his defense. Should I start Fred Jackson over MJD for week 4?
Go Lions: Solid 30 point win here, despite Vick. I have my toughest matchup so far, against 3-0 Iron City. I have some gaping holes in my lineup - I only have 3 starting running backs, and one of them is Joseph Addai. Also, my QB's are Vick and Bradford, so thing's don't look great there. I'm hoping to snooker a sucker into a trade. I don't know what those words mean.
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Week 3: What do we know so far? (Hint: Nothing)
Buffalo and Detroit are both 2-0. Indy and KC are 0-2. Cam Newton has 2000 yards already, and Brady is on pace for 7500 yards.
Wait, what?
Yeah. It's that sort of season. But lest you forget... We know nothing after two weeks. We'll see what we find out this week, as there are some good barometer games.
Week 2 Correct Picks: Tennessee, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Arizona, Cincinnatti, Houston, Atlanta (upset 1-1), New York Giants
Week 2 Incorrect Picks: Oakland, Kansas City, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville (Lock 1-1), Green Bay, San Diego,
Week 2 Push: Dallas
Week 2: 8-7-1
Total: 17-13-2
Week 3 Games:
New England at Buffalo (NE by 9): I still don't know if I believe in Buffalo, but I'm picking up Fitzpatrick and playing him this week in place of Vick. And because Buffalo can score, I'm thinking New England can't quite cover this week.
San Francisco at Cincinnati (Cin by 3): Knowing my luck, this will be the game on TV, and I'll have to shoot myself. I'll take San Fran I guess.
Miami at Cleveland (Cle by 3): And if SF/Cin isn't on TV, it's a lock that this game will be. Ugh. I'll take Miami, as they are a decent road team.
Denver at Tennessee (Ten by 7): Every year there's one conference that's just weird - A beats B, who beats C, who beats A. Pretty sure it's the AFC South this year. We'll know for sure once Houston has to play Ten or Jax. For now, I'm going to pick Tennessee in this game because Denver sucks.
Detroit at Minnesota (Det by 4): Here's what I'm stuck with: I'm picking against Detroit every week from here on out. Right now they're on a streak and I won't be the one who ruins that. So I take Minnesota here.
Houston at New Orleans (NO by 4): Actually, the Houston bandwagon is pretty quiet this year. Everyone's waiting for the bottom to fall out. And sure, why not this game, right? Except that New Orleans is pretty porous when it comes to defense. So I'm thinking Houston is my Upset of the Week (and then falls apart next week).
New York Giants at Philadelphia (N/A): No line because Vick is probably out. I would imagine the line being PHI by 3 with no Vick, and by 5 or 6 with Vick. I'm taking Philly here.
Jacksonville at Carolina (Car by 4): Sure why, not. Cam Newton over Luke McCown.
New York Jets at Oakland (NY by 4): I just hate the Jets. I don't even care. Aren't they due for a stinker where Sanchez sucks? I'll take Oakland.
Baltimore at St Louis (Bal by 4): The good new is that even if St Louis starts 0-4 they'll only be a game or two behind (and they're starting 0-3).
Kansas City at San Diego (SD by 15): This has a weird trap game feel to it, in my opinion. Everyone has written off Kansas City and also penciled Philip Rivers in for the MVP. But did we all forget that San Diego can't win until November? They nearly blew it to Minnesota and then did blow it to New England. But... KC has been blown out in three or four games straight (going back to last season). I don't know. I guess I'll take San Diego and then laugh if they lose this game.
Green Bay at Chicago (GB by 4): Chicago tends to elicit these weird 10-3 games when they play Green Bay. It's like Rodgers can't quite figure them out. That being said, I like the chances that Cutler is sacked three or four times early and then spends the rest of the game giving death glares to his o-line. So I'll take Green Bay.
Arizona at Seattle (Ari by 4): Eh, I'll take Seattle here, I guess. Homefield advantage. After all, if they don't win here, aren't they going 0-16?
Atlanta at Tampa Bay (TB by 1): Josh Freeman keeps doing it. And Atlanta is coming off the big "phew" game. (Although so is Tampa). But the advantage lies with Josh Freeman over Matt Ryan.
Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (Pit by 11): Man, Pittsburgh got blessed with some pretty easy games to wash that Baltimore stink off, huh? I don't think Indy is worse than Seattle, but I don't even think Pittsburgh played that well last week. So I'll take Pittsburgh here, and throw down a Lock of the Week for it.
Washington at Dallas (N/A): No line because of the Tony Romo injury. I like Dallas a little bit here, with Romo, and lean heavily towards Washington if he doesn't play. And since he probably isn't playing, I'll stick with Washington.
Fantasy Update:
Cristaball: I won 123-100 despite the Oakland D/ST putting up -4 points. This team is certainly turning out much better than I could have hoped for. Flipping Kolb and Manning each week seems to be working - although I'll be keeping Kolb for this week against Seattle.
Go Lions: I won 133-109, despite Lloyd not playing at the last minute and netting me a goose egg. Unfortunately, even in the win, I have issues, as this is my Vick team. I'm hoping to snag Fitzpatrick off of waivers; I don't like Bradford (my backup QB's) matchup this week.
Emerald City Eight: I won quite handily - 147 to 86. This is what I imagined this team doing week one. I'm hoping that was a fluke and we'll continue to rack up a lot of points - and I like this weeks matchup with Jackson and Gates playing KC.
Wait, what?
Yeah. It's that sort of season. But lest you forget... We know nothing after two weeks. We'll see what we find out this week, as there are some good barometer games.
Week 2 Correct Picks: Tennessee, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Arizona, Cincinnatti, Houston, Atlanta (upset 1-1), New York Giants
Week 2 Incorrect Picks: Oakland, Kansas City, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville (Lock 1-1), Green Bay, San Diego,
Week 2 Push: Dallas
Week 2: 8-7-1
Total: 17-13-2
Week 3 Games:
New England at Buffalo (NE by 9): I still don't know if I believe in Buffalo, but I'm picking up Fitzpatrick and playing him this week in place of Vick. And because Buffalo can score, I'm thinking New England can't quite cover this week.
San Francisco at Cincinnati (Cin by 3): Knowing my luck, this will be the game on TV, and I'll have to shoot myself. I'll take San Fran I guess.
Miami at Cleveland (Cle by 3): And if SF/Cin isn't on TV, it's a lock that this game will be. Ugh. I'll take Miami, as they are a decent road team.
Denver at Tennessee (Ten by 7): Every year there's one conference that's just weird - A beats B, who beats C, who beats A. Pretty sure it's the AFC South this year. We'll know for sure once Houston has to play Ten or Jax. For now, I'm going to pick Tennessee in this game because Denver sucks.
Detroit at Minnesota (Det by 4): Here's what I'm stuck with: I'm picking against Detroit every week from here on out. Right now they're on a streak and I won't be the one who ruins that. So I take Minnesota here.
Houston at New Orleans (NO by 4): Actually, the Houston bandwagon is pretty quiet this year. Everyone's waiting for the bottom to fall out. And sure, why not this game, right? Except that New Orleans is pretty porous when it comes to defense. So I'm thinking Houston is my Upset of the Week (and then falls apart next week).
New York Giants at Philadelphia (N/A): No line because Vick is probably out. I would imagine the line being PHI by 3 with no Vick, and by 5 or 6 with Vick. I'm taking Philly here.
Jacksonville at Carolina (Car by 4): Sure why, not. Cam Newton over Luke McCown.
New York Jets at Oakland (NY by 4): I just hate the Jets. I don't even care. Aren't they due for a stinker where Sanchez sucks? I'll take Oakland.
Baltimore at St Louis (Bal by 4): The good new is that even if St Louis starts 0-4 they'll only be a game or two behind (and they're starting 0-3).
Kansas City at San Diego (SD by 15): This has a weird trap game feel to it, in my opinion. Everyone has written off Kansas City and also penciled Philip Rivers in for the MVP. But did we all forget that San Diego can't win until November? They nearly blew it to Minnesota and then did blow it to New England. But... KC has been blown out in three or four games straight (going back to last season). I don't know. I guess I'll take San Diego and then laugh if they lose this game.
Green Bay at Chicago (GB by 4): Chicago tends to elicit these weird 10-3 games when they play Green Bay. It's like Rodgers can't quite figure them out. That being said, I like the chances that Cutler is sacked three or four times early and then spends the rest of the game giving death glares to his o-line. So I'll take Green Bay.
Arizona at Seattle (Ari by 4): Eh, I'll take Seattle here, I guess. Homefield advantage. After all, if they don't win here, aren't they going 0-16?
Atlanta at Tampa Bay (TB by 1): Josh Freeman keeps doing it. And Atlanta is coming off the big "phew" game. (Although so is Tampa). But the advantage lies with Josh Freeman over Matt Ryan.
Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (Pit by 11): Man, Pittsburgh got blessed with some pretty easy games to wash that Baltimore stink off, huh? I don't think Indy is worse than Seattle, but I don't even think Pittsburgh played that well last week. So I'll take Pittsburgh here, and throw down a Lock of the Week for it.
Washington at Dallas (N/A): No line because of the Tony Romo injury. I like Dallas a little bit here, with Romo, and lean heavily towards Washington if he doesn't play. And since he probably isn't playing, I'll stick with Washington.
Fantasy Update:
Cristaball: I won 123-100 despite the Oakland D/ST putting up -4 points. This team is certainly turning out much better than I could have hoped for. Flipping Kolb and Manning each week seems to be working - although I'll be keeping Kolb for this week against Seattle.
Go Lions: I won 133-109, despite Lloyd not playing at the last minute and netting me a goose egg. Unfortunately, even in the win, I have issues, as this is my Vick team. I'm hoping to snag Fitzpatrick off of waivers; I don't like Bradford (my backup QB's) matchup this week.
Emerald City Eight: I won quite handily - 147 to 86. This is what I imagined this team doing week one. I'm hoping that was a fluke and we'll continue to rack up a lot of points - and I like this weeks matchup with Jackson and Gates playing KC.
Monday, September 12, 2011
Week 2: The Gods Must be Crazy
What a strange opening weekend. I think we have no idea what the influence of the lockout will be yet; but look at this: Buffalo and Washington won handily, while Atlanta and Pittsburgh lost badly. St Louis lost not just the game but their three most important players; Green Bay might be unstoppable; and the kickoff rules still didn't help San Diego. Oh, and Indianapolis just became my favorite in the Luck-Off sweepstakes.
Speaking of the Luck-Off, I think we as an internet need to come up with a great name for the contest. When we think of the rhyming possibilities, I think we can do it.
After week one, I have decided to simplify my picks to be against the spread. Mostly because I did horrible in picking game winners. Here are my week 1 results. Note that I'm listing based on the picks I made against the spread, so I have Tennessee as a correct pick even though they lost.
Week 1 Correct Picks: Cincinnati, Buffalo, Philadelphia, Tennessee, San Francisco (lock 1-0), Washington, Dallas; Oakland; New England
Week 1 Incorrect Picks: Green Bay (upset 0-1), Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, San Diego
Arizona landed right on the spread of 7, so I get my pick back (it's called a push). Making the record 9-6-1.
On to the week 2 picks! (Tuesday Update: These lines are a little ridiculous. I'll highlight where below.)
Speaking of the Luck-Off, I think we as an internet need to come up with a great name for the contest. When we think of the rhyming possibilities, I think we can do it.
After week one, I have decided to simplify my picks to be against the spread. Mostly because I did horrible in picking game winners. Here are my week 1 results. Note that I'm listing based on the picks I made against the spread, so I have Tennessee as a correct pick even though they lost.
Week 1 Correct Picks: Cincinnati, Buffalo, Philadelphia, Tennessee, San Francisco (lock 1-0), Washington, Dallas; Oakland; New England
Week 1 Incorrect Picks: Green Bay (upset 0-1), Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, San Diego
Arizona landed right on the spread of 7, so I get my pick back (it's called a push). Making the record 9-6-1.
On to the week 2 picks! (Tuesday Update: These lines are a little ridiculous. I'll highlight where below.)
Oakland at Buffalo (Buf by 4): Buffalo looked a little too good. I don't know if I believe in that yet. Yes, I know I picked them. But I still don't trust them. Although, when in doubt, take the points. I'll take the over.
Kansas City at Detroit (Det by 9): The first insane line of the day. Detroit is favored by 9 points. Nine! I can't bring myself to that. Not yet. I'll take the under.
Baltimore at Tennessee (Bal by 7): I don't know, man. It's a home game for Tennessee, so I'll take the under here as well.
Cleveland at Indianopolis (Cle by 2): I kept seeing the bottom line scroll across on Sunday, updating me on the Houston/Indy game. Every time I saw it, Houston had scored 10 more points. Was Indy really that inept, or was Houston really that good? I think Indy rights itself a bit here and somebody finally lights that Cleveland bandwagon on fire.
Tampa Bay at Minnesota (Min by 3): I'll take the over. Minnesota nearly beat a really good San Diego team. Tampa Bay wasn't really in the Detroit game.
Chicago at New Orleans (NO by 7): One team that played better than their loss suggested, and one team that played worse than their win suggested. In both of the games week one, it all hinged on turnovers. Chicago went 5/5 on recovered fumbles, including some that frankly changed the momentum of the game. New Orleans fumbled on their first possession, which then required them to go into a shootout starting down two scores (and they still almost pulled it off). This is an easy bet - New Orleans and the over.
Jacksonville at New York (NYJ by 10): I absolutely cannot believe that the Jets won on Sunday night. They seem to do that every week - win games because the other team melts down. I swear on all that is holy that I cannot stand them. My prediction for this game: Jacksonville leads a close game, up by 4, when Luke McCown runs out the back of the end zone and tries to do a reverse Lambeau leap. On the ensuing safety punt, Jacksonville botches the punt, managing to kick it backwards, and New York capitalizes with a field goal to take a 1 point lead and win. No way I'm picking the Jets by 10. I'll take the under. And this is my lock.
Seattle at Pittsburgh (Pit by 15): Here's what I can tell you: I'm writing this first draft on Monday morning without seeing the lines, and I'm taking Pittsburgh and the over. It's a perfect storm of an embarassed good team and a crappy team led by Tarvaris Jackson on the road. If they put the spread at 20, I would still have to seriously consider Pittsburgh. Also: Fantasy MVP this week will be the Pitt D/ST. (Tuesday Update: 15 points and I'm still taking the over.)
Arizona at Washington (Was by 5): It's the redemption of Rex Grossman! I only hope that because Dave has legally agreed to rename his daughter Rex Grossman Morgan if he does well. So in that vein, I will take Wash and the over. Scratch That. Washington beat a hurting Giants. I'll take the under.
Green Bay at Carolina (GB by 11): I'm pretty sure I saw the best team in football last Thursday. And I don't think Carolina keeps up with that. Sorry, I'm taking the points.
Dallas at San Francisco (Dal by 3): Every time I saw Rob Ryan on the sidelines, I flashbacked to Arrested Development, where in Season 2 we were introduced to George Bluth Sr's twin brother Oscar Bluth. Oscar was played by the same actor in a wig. It's the exact same - we had no idea that there was a Rob Ryan until we were already sick of Rex. I'm still not 100% convinced it's not a publicity ploy and Rex isn't running both teams. I take Dallas in spite of Tony Romo.
Cincinnati at Denver (Den by 6): Really? No respect for Cincy? Didn't Denver just lose at home to Oakland, who were supposed to be terrible, while Cincy beat Cleveland at Cleveland? And wasn't Cleveland supposed to be sneaky good? I'll take Cincy here.
Houston at Miami (Hou by 3): A tad too much respect for Miami here. Do you think Henne puts together two games in a row? Me neither. Houston.
San Diego at New England (NE by 7): Great game! I think it's too close to call, and thus I'll take San Diego. I think it's a shootout, 35-33 or similar.
Philadelphia at Atlanta (Phi by 3): Maybe a great game. Certainly would have been amazing last year, but neither of these teams looked special last week. I'll take Atlanta as my upset, because I forgot to pick one until now.
St Louis at New York (NY by 6): The infamous Injury bowl! So early in the season, and all you'll hear next Monday is how beat up these two teams are. It's disappointing, but I'm ready to write off St Louis now, and anoint San Fran as the division winner (at 6-10). St Louis has a brutal schedule, and they won't be winning here. Take the over.
Fantasy Update:
Here's the frustrating thing about Fantasy: no matter how much you prepare, sometimes you just get lucky. Or unlucky. I'm writing this before the Monday night games (and will update after), but right now here's how it looking:
Go Lions: I felt good about this team going in. Right now, I'm down 6 points. I have two players left (McFadden and Lloyd), while he has three players left (Moreno, Welker, Janikowski). Could be a coin flip, although I'm obviously disadvantaged currently. Tuesday Update: I lost by 20 points.
Emerald City Eight: I've lost badly this week, unless Tom Brady doesn't get 3 fantasy points (Tuesday Update: Well, that certainly didn't happen). My team put up 80 points, total. Thats right. My murderers row first five put up 9, 2, 15, 3, and 6 points. I only had three players get to double digits - Stafford, Jones-Drew, and the Chargers D/ST. Thats right. My defense was my third most valuable player. I'm not ready to panic yet; next week should be better.
CRISTABall: And just to illustrate the randomness of Fantasy Football... I have won this game. My autodrafted horror has put up 104 points - with my #1 pick, McFadden, still left to play (as well as two other players). Eli Manning and Steve Smith combined for more points than my opponent . Unbelievable.
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Week 1: The NFL is Back... And So Am I, Baby!
I know you missed me. Life's been crazy. And I've been lazy. Let's just get right to it.
This season, I will be picking the winner of each game, as well as picking against the spread. If you don't know what the spread is, I will explain it now. Vegas predicts who will win by a point margin - so, for example, they might say "Green Bay by 3.5." Your job is to bet on the over or under - for example, does Green Bay win by more than 3.5, or less than 3.5? Green Bay covers if they win by 4 or more, they win but don't cover if they win by 3 or less, etc. If teams are evenly matched, the line is usually three points to the home team. If they are unevenly matched, the line will be higher (or so low that the away team becomes favored, creating a home underdog or "homedog"). If the team wins by the exact margin, then the pick doesn't count and you get your money back. So that's the spread system in an nutshell.
I will be getting all of my spreads from the ESPN.com NFL scoreboard page. Don't know how accurate it is, but it's where I'm going. On to the picks - and a fantasy section at the end.
Saints at Packers (GB by 4.5)
The Lions aren't the only one's with the great bandwagon. I actually saw an article on ESPN wondering if the Packers are a dynasty. Please... I like them as much as anyone else. It was great fun to watch them beat the Steelers. But they won one superbowl. It sounds an awful lot like the year before actually, when everyone was ready to anoint New Orleans the permanent NFL champions forever. Just because they beat a team that we all hate in the Superbowl doesn't mean we should lose our minds. So I'm taking my Upset of the Week here and taking New Orleans to win outright.
Falcons at Bears (ATL by 3)
Not a fan of either of these teams this year, but I don't know that Chicago could keep up with Atlanta if ATL wants to try a shootout with Roddy White and Julio Jones. I'll take ATL to cover.
Bengals at Browns (CLE by 7)
The Annual Ohio Puke-Off. I hope to God this game isn't on TV, even if the Browns are supposedly a decent sleeper team. I think I'll pick Cleveland to win but not to cover...
Bills at Chiefs (KC by 6)
The Bills might actually be sneaky decent. Everyone thinks they should take Luck, but it's not like Fitzpatrick was horrible last year. I like the Bills to keep it close here, but still lose. So I take the under.
Eagles at Rams (Phi by 5.5)
Two pretty good NFC teams. I don't have to play Vick in any of my leagues this week, so I'm feeling confident he won't do very well. But then again, I don't think I can name a player on the STL defense, so I'll take Philly to cover the spread.
Lions at Buccanneers (TB by 1)
Two bandwagons are pretty full: the Lions bandwagon, and the "I just jumped off the Lions Bandwagon because it's too full" bandwagon. I don't agree with this line; I don't think the Lions are two points better than the Bucs. If the line was TB by 4, I would have to think about it. As it is, I'm gonna have to take the Bucs and hope I'm wrong.
As a side note, the last time I was this optimistic about a Lion's season, they had just gone 4-0 through the preseason, and I was excited to watch them tear apart a rookie quarterback - Matt Ryan. They promptly lost badly and went 0-16. The lesson, as always for Lion's fans, is don't hope.
Titans at Jaguars (Jac by 3)
I'm pretty sure this line is incorrect, as it probably doesn't account for Jacksonville's QB situation. But it's what ESPN has today (Thursday) so I'll take the gift and pick Ten.
Steelers at Ravens (Bal by 2)
Everyone's predicting a decline for the Ravens, and I am too. Because I'm sick of Flacco, and his dumb face. So I predict the Steelers to win.
Colts at Texans (Hou by 9)
I think Houston will win, but I'm not willing to bet it would be by 10 points. Collins isn't bad, he's just not Peyton Manning. I think Indy will keep it close, maybe lose by a touchdown.
Panthers at Cardinals (Ari by 7)
Well, so far, I've only picked one home team to cover. Time to start working that average back up. Panthers are terrible, and while I have a sinking feeling in my stomach whenever I think of Kevin Kolb, I'm betting he has a decent coming out party. Who wouldn't want to play Carolina week one?
Vikings at Chargers (SD by 9)
Everyone is predicting that Philip Rivers is going to have a monster game. I wasn't able to snag Rivers in any of my leagues (he was my third ranked quarterback), but I do have Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates in a couple. I'm hoping that goes well for me. On the flip side, I also have AP, which I agonized about because I hate my first round pick giving me 6 points on week 1. Anyway, I pick the Chargers to win by a mile and cover.
Seahawks at 49ers (SF by 6)
I read an amazing stat today. The Seahawks lose by an average of 5-6 points on the road and win by an average of 6 points at home - a swing of 12 points. They even used that advantage to beat New Orleans last year in the playoffs. But there's your line right there, right? Seahawks losing by 6 on the road. So I'll take San Fran to cover - heck, I'll make it my lock.
Giants at Redskins (NYG by 3)
Who is left to play defense for the Giants? I don't know at this point. I think Shanahan will have the Redskins in decent shape (minus Rexy Grossman), so I don't think NY will cover. I think Washington will win. The whole homedog thing, ya know?
Cowboys at Jets (NYJ by 4.5)
You know, I hate the Jets. I really do. But I'm not a fan of the Cowboys. Here's my thinking in this game: Dallas can be explosive on offense. Jets, not so much. If the Dallas gets ahead (which isn't a surefire possibility with Revis on the field), the Jets can't catch up. So I'm taking Dallas.
Patriots at Dolphins (NE by 7)
Patriots. Would take the patriots at 10. 14 would be a fair place to set the line on bets where I would have to start considering NE not covering.
Raiders at Broncos (Den by 3)
I'm gonna get burned bad by picking so many road teams and stuff, but I don't like Denver this year. I like Oakland here. Jeez, may I never type that again.
Fantasy Football Preview:
I have three teams this year. Here they are:
Cristaball League:
Autodrafted last in a 16 team league:
Darren Mcfadden; Steven Jackson; Felix Jones; Benjarvus Green Ellis; Eli Manning; Steve Smith (Car); Robert Meachem; Braylon Edwards; Donovan McNabb; Mike Williams (Sea); Aaron Hernandez; Nate Burleson; Devin Hester; Kevin Ogletree; Raiders D/ST; Jason Hanson
Well, I hate this team. Quarterbacks suck, receivers are negligible, no real strengths. My RB's aren't bad, but for some reason this league was capped at 4. Weird. I also got two receivers that have the same name as other receivers, but I got the crappy versions.
The good news? In one hilarious turn of events, somebody dropped Kevin Kolb to pick up Carson Palmer(!). I immediately dropped McNabb and added Kolb. Now, I look and they have picked up McNabb. Suckers. This is also the guy I'm playing week 1, and I'm still only projected to win by 4 (and he's sitting MJD for... Ladainian Tomlinson?)
Go Lions:
I liked my team here. Last pick in a ten man league. Note: this isn't the order I drafted them in.
Michael Vick; Darren McFadden; Ahmad Bradshaw; Marques Colston; Vincent Jackson; Tony Gonzalez; Brandon Lloyd; Sam Bradford; Joseph Addai; Michael Bush; Nate Burleson; Devery Henderson; Steve Johnson; Billy Cundiff; New Orleans.
I wanted Vick in this league, and was going to take him wherever I ended up. He fell to me at 10th, which was amazing. And then I just stocked up on RB's and WR's, while stealing Sam Bradford as a great backup.
I'm pretty pumped about this team. Pretty sure I'm one of the top two.
Emerald City Eight:
The jewel of my crown. First pick in an 8 team league.
Adrian Peterson, Rashard Mendenhall, Maurice Jones Drew, Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston, Jeremy Maclin, Fred Jackson, Shonn Greene, Santana Moss, Matt Stafford, Julio Jones, CJ Spiller, Kevin Kolb, Chargers D/ST, Mason Crosby.
I purposefully encouraged a run on QB's early, knowing I could get a decent one in the later rounds. Vick went 2nd overall, and Rodgers 7th, and Brady 8th. And so I just sat back and picked up amazing players. Look at my first five picks - thats a murderers row. My only regret is getting two Buffalo RB's (they were the best RB's left on the board, with nothing much else to work with). I'm trying to trade Greene and Kolb for Roethlisberger and Lee Evans to a running back needy team, so we'll see how that goes. I'm risking it a bit by taking Stafford, but I have to be a homer every now and again.
And that's the end, ladies and gentlemen. Let the season begin.
This season, I will be picking the winner of each game, as well as picking against the spread. If you don't know what the spread is, I will explain it now. Vegas predicts who will win by a point margin - so, for example, they might say "Green Bay by 3.5." Your job is to bet on the over or under - for example, does Green Bay win by more than 3.5, or less than 3.5? Green Bay covers if they win by 4 or more, they win but don't cover if they win by 3 or less, etc. If teams are evenly matched, the line is usually three points to the home team. If they are unevenly matched, the line will be higher (or so low that the away team becomes favored, creating a home underdog or "homedog"). If the team wins by the exact margin, then the pick doesn't count and you get your money back. So that's the spread system in an nutshell.
I will be getting all of my spreads from the ESPN.com NFL scoreboard page. Don't know how accurate it is, but it's where I'm going. On to the picks - and a fantasy section at the end.
Saints at Packers (GB by 4.5)
The Lions aren't the only one's with the great bandwagon. I actually saw an article on ESPN wondering if the Packers are a dynasty. Please... I like them as much as anyone else. It was great fun to watch them beat the Steelers. But they won one superbowl. It sounds an awful lot like the year before actually, when everyone was ready to anoint New Orleans the permanent NFL champions forever. Just because they beat a team that we all hate in the Superbowl doesn't mean we should lose our minds. So I'm taking my Upset of the Week here and taking New Orleans to win outright.
Falcons at Bears (ATL by 3)
Not a fan of either of these teams this year, but I don't know that Chicago could keep up with Atlanta if ATL wants to try a shootout with Roddy White and Julio Jones. I'll take ATL to cover.
Bengals at Browns (CLE by 7)
The Annual Ohio Puke-Off. I hope to God this game isn't on TV, even if the Browns are supposedly a decent sleeper team. I think I'll pick Cleveland to win but not to cover...
Bills at Chiefs (KC by 6)
The Bills might actually be sneaky decent. Everyone thinks they should take Luck, but it's not like Fitzpatrick was horrible last year. I like the Bills to keep it close here, but still lose. So I take the under.
Eagles at Rams (Phi by 5.5)
Two pretty good NFC teams. I don't have to play Vick in any of my leagues this week, so I'm feeling confident he won't do very well. But then again, I don't think I can name a player on the STL defense, so I'll take Philly to cover the spread.
Lions at Buccanneers (TB by 1)
Two bandwagons are pretty full: the Lions bandwagon, and the "I just jumped off the Lions Bandwagon because it's too full" bandwagon. I don't agree with this line; I don't think the Lions are two points better than the Bucs. If the line was TB by 4, I would have to think about it. As it is, I'm gonna have to take the Bucs and hope I'm wrong.
As a side note, the last time I was this optimistic about a Lion's season, they had just gone 4-0 through the preseason, and I was excited to watch them tear apart a rookie quarterback - Matt Ryan. They promptly lost badly and went 0-16. The lesson, as always for Lion's fans, is don't hope.
Titans at Jaguars (Jac by 3)
I'm pretty sure this line is incorrect, as it probably doesn't account for Jacksonville's QB situation. But it's what ESPN has today (Thursday) so I'll take the gift and pick Ten.
Steelers at Ravens (Bal by 2)
Everyone's predicting a decline for the Ravens, and I am too. Because I'm sick of Flacco, and his dumb face. So I predict the Steelers to win.
Colts at Texans (Hou by 9)
I think Houston will win, but I'm not willing to bet it would be by 10 points. Collins isn't bad, he's just not Peyton Manning. I think Indy will keep it close, maybe lose by a touchdown.
Panthers at Cardinals (Ari by 7)
Well, so far, I've only picked one home team to cover. Time to start working that average back up. Panthers are terrible, and while I have a sinking feeling in my stomach whenever I think of Kevin Kolb, I'm betting he has a decent coming out party. Who wouldn't want to play Carolina week one?
Vikings at Chargers (SD by 9)
Everyone is predicting that Philip Rivers is going to have a monster game. I wasn't able to snag Rivers in any of my leagues (he was my third ranked quarterback), but I do have Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates in a couple. I'm hoping that goes well for me. On the flip side, I also have AP, which I agonized about because I hate my first round pick giving me 6 points on week 1. Anyway, I pick the Chargers to win by a mile and cover.
Seahawks at 49ers (SF by 6)
I read an amazing stat today. The Seahawks lose by an average of 5-6 points on the road and win by an average of 6 points at home - a swing of 12 points. They even used that advantage to beat New Orleans last year in the playoffs. But there's your line right there, right? Seahawks losing by 6 on the road. So I'll take San Fran to cover - heck, I'll make it my lock.
Giants at Redskins (NYG by 3)
Who is left to play defense for the Giants? I don't know at this point. I think Shanahan will have the Redskins in decent shape (minus Rexy Grossman), so I don't think NY will cover. I think Washington will win. The whole homedog thing, ya know?
Cowboys at Jets (NYJ by 4.5)
You know, I hate the Jets. I really do. But I'm not a fan of the Cowboys. Here's my thinking in this game: Dallas can be explosive on offense. Jets, not so much. If the Dallas gets ahead (which isn't a surefire possibility with Revis on the field), the Jets can't catch up. So I'm taking Dallas.
Patriots at Dolphins (NE by 7)
Patriots. Would take the patriots at 10. 14 would be a fair place to set the line on bets where I would have to start considering NE not covering.
Raiders at Broncos (Den by 3)
I'm gonna get burned bad by picking so many road teams and stuff, but I don't like Denver this year. I like Oakland here. Jeez, may I never type that again.
Fantasy Football Preview:
I have three teams this year. Here they are:
Cristaball League:
Autodrafted last in a 16 team league:
Darren Mcfadden; Steven Jackson; Felix Jones; Benjarvus Green Ellis; Eli Manning; Steve Smith (Car); Robert Meachem; Braylon Edwards; Donovan McNabb; Mike Williams (Sea); Aaron Hernandez; Nate Burleson; Devin Hester; Kevin Ogletree; Raiders D/ST; Jason Hanson
Well, I hate this team. Quarterbacks suck, receivers are negligible, no real strengths. My RB's aren't bad, but for some reason this league was capped at 4. Weird. I also got two receivers that have the same name as other receivers, but I got the crappy versions.
The good news? In one hilarious turn of events, somebody dropped Kevin Kolb to pick up Carson Palmer(!). I immediately dropped McNabb and added Kolb. Now, I look and they have picked up McNabb. Suckers. This is also the guy I'm playing week 1, and I'm still only projected to win by 4 (and he's sitting MJD for... Ladainian Tomlinson?)
Go Lions:
I liked my team here. Last pick in a ten man league. Note: this isn't the order I drafted them in.
Michael Vick; Darren McFadden; Ahmad Bradshaw; Marques Colston; Vincent Jackson; Tony Gonzalez; Brandon Lloyd; Sam Bradford; Joseph Addai; Michael Bush; Nate Burleson; Devery Henderson; Steve Johnson; Billy Cundiff; New Orleans.
I wanted Vick in this league, and was going to take him wherever I ended up. He fell to me at 10th, which was amazing. And then I just stocked up on RB's and WR's, while stealing Sam Bradford as a great backup.
I'm pretty pumped about this team. Pretty sure I'm one of the top two.
Emerald City Eight:
The jewel of my crown. First pick in an 8 team league.
Adrian Peterson, Rashard Mendenhall, Maurice Jones Drew, Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston, Jeremy Maclin, Fred Jackson, Shonn Greene, Santana Moss, Matt Stafford, Julio Jones, CJ Spiller, Kevin Kolb, Chargers D/ST, Mason Crosby.
I purposefully encouraged a run on QB's early, knowing I could get a decent one in the later rounds. Vick went 2nd overall, and Rodgers 7th, and Brady 8th. And so I just sat back and picked up amazing players. Look at my first five picks - thats a murderers row. My only regret is getting two Buffalo RB's (they were the best RB's left on the board, with nothing much else to work with). I'm trying to trade Greene and Kolb for Roethlisberger and Lee Evans to a running back needy team, so we'll see how that goes. I'm risking it a bit by taking Stafford, but I have to be a homer every now and again.
And that's the end, ladies and gentlemen. Let the season begin.
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