Two favorites this weekend, and they both aren't winning. Additionally, we aren't getting the Harbaugh Bowl.
So I'll take New England and Atlanta.
6-2 so far.
Saturday, January 19, 2013
Friday, January 11, 2013
NFL: 2013 Divisional Picks
Perfect 4-0 last week. Let's keep it going.
Here's where the difficulty comes - one of the top four seeds is going to look sluggish and not show up. The favorite is Atlanta, who have a recent history of doing just that. Let's talk about each game.
Baltimore at Denver
I didn't think Baltimore played well last week. Their best hope is that they catch Denver sleeping (a decent possibility). Let's also not forget that Peyton Manning has a strong history of choking in the playoffs (2006 not withstanding). So that's your case for Baltimore.
Your case for Denver? They're just better. On just about every facet of the ball.
Also, I refuse to support Joe Flacco anymore. I finally ditched him in fantasy and rode Colin Kaepernick to a championship. I will take Denver.
Houston at New England
I like New England here. Houston looks done.
Green Bay at San Francisco
Probably the hardest game to pick. For most of the week, I was thinking of just picking Green Bay. But really, I think San Fran might be the better team. The obvious question mark is QB, but I don't think Kaepernick is a liability at home. In the end, I'll take the home team.
(P.S. This game should be in Green Bay. Friggin Seattle).
Atlanta at Seattle
So we come to it now. I haven't picked a sleeper (which here means the obvious of the regular season term sleeper), and I guess I'll take Atlanta to forget how to play.
Let's talk a minute about the Seahawks. They have a ferocious (read: dirty) defense, a good running game, and an unproven rookie quarterback who is the talk of the town, and a gaggle of mediocre receivers. They won a lucky wildcard game, and are about to catch a sleeping bye team. Also, they have green on their uniforms.
You know what team that sounds like? New York Jets, two or three years ago. The Jets went to a conference championship twice in a row, but lost when they played against a proven playoff team that wasn't asleep from the bye. And that's what I imagine happening here - Seattle wins again by surprising a sluggish Atlanta, but then will lose to a prepared-to-embarass-Seattle-who-is-also-on-the-verge-of-stealing-the-nearest-basketball-team San Francisco 49ers.
(the final note: I don't believe in Destiny, which means that we are not getting Green Bay / Seattle - so at least one of those teams is losing).
So those are my picks. Denver, New England, San Francisco, Seattle.
Here's where the difficulty comes - one of the top four seeds is going to look sluggish and not show up. The favorite is Atlanta, who have a recent history of doing just that. Let's talk about each game.
Baltimore at Denver
I didn't think Baltimore played well last week. Their best hope is that they catch Denver sleeping (a decent possibility). Let's also not forget that Peyton Manning has a strong history of choking in the playoffs (2006 not withstanding). So that's your case for Baltimore.
Your case for Denver? They're just better. On just about every facet of the ball.
Also, I refuse to support Joe Flacco anymore. I finally ditched him in fantasy and rode Colin Kaepernick to a championship. I will take Denver.
Houston at New England
I like New England here. Houston looks done.
Green Bay at San Francisco
Probably the hardest game to pick. For most of the week, I was thinking of just picking Green Bay. But really, I think San Fran might be the better team. The obvious question mark is QB, but I don't think Kaepernick is a liability at home. In the end, I'll take the home team.
(P.S. This game should be in Green Bay. Friggin Seattle).
Atlanta at Seattle
So we come to it now. I haven't picked a sleeper (which here means the obvious of the regular season term sleeper), and I guess I'll take Atlanta to forget how to play.
Let's talk a minute about the Seahawks. They have a ferocious (read: dirty) defense, a good running game, and an unproven rookie quarterback who is the talk of the town, and a gaggle of mediocre receivers. They won a lucky wildcard game, and are about to catch a sleeping bye team. Also, they have green on their uniforms.
You know what team that sounds like? New York Jets, two or three years ago. The Jets went to a conference championship twice in a row, but lost when they played against a proven playoff team that wasn't asleep from the bye. And that's what I imagine happening here - Seattle wins again by surprising a sluggish Atlanta, but then will lose to a prepared-to-embarass-Seattle-who-is-also-on-the-verge-of-stealing-the-nearest-basketball-team San Francisco 49ers.
(the final note: I don't believe in Destiny, which means that we are not getting Green Bay / Seattle - so at least one of those teams is losing).
So those are my picks. Denver, New England, San Francisco, Seattle.
Friday, January 4, 2013
NFL: 2013 Wildcard Picks
Time to come out of blogging retirement and make my NFL Playoff Picks. Here are my rules:
1. Momentum Matters.
2. One team is overhyped, one team is underhyped.
3. When in doubt, take the home team. But pick at least one road team.
4. Destiny Exists.
5. One team is kryptonite.
So let's look at each game in order.
Cincy at Houston
This has got to be an overhype/underhype matchup. Everyone is begging to take Cincy. But tell me this: isn't Cincy just an underexperienced Houston? They have an underwhelming quarterback, one crazy receiver, and a good running game. The difference is Houston is home with the excellent RB who is well rested. So I'll take Houston.
Minnesota at Green Bay
When in doubt, take Aaron Rodgers at home in the playoffs. Simple enough. I'm not putting much thought into this.
Indy at Baltimore
Let's review why I don't believe Destiny exists (in regards to NFL Playoffs): a few years ago, we very noticeably did not get Brett Favre vs Green Bay in the playoffs. I don't think we're getting Luck v. Manning either. Baltimore wins here handily.
Seattle at Washington
I'm supposed to pick a road team. And I hate Seattle, so they might be my kryptonite. I see a very definite possibility of Seattle flaming out, but I'm going to pick them. Maybe I'll be wrong, in which case I'll be ecstatic.
Quick Fantasy Note:
I lost badly (last place) in my work league. I just missed the playoffs in my Seattle league (short by 20 points).
And I won Go Lions! We are the champions... Let's try for a repeat.
1. Momentum Matters.
2. One team is overhyped, one team is underhyped.
3. When in doubt, take the home team. But pick at least one road team.
5. One team is kryptonite.
So let's look at each game in order.
Cincy at Houston
This has got to be an overhype/underhype matchup. Everyone is begging to take Cincy. But tell me this: isn't Cincy just an underexperienced Houston? They have an underwhelming quarterback, one crazy receiver, and a good running game. The difference is Houston is home with the excellent RB who is well rested. So I'll take Houston.
Minnesota at Green Bay
When in doubt, take Aaron Rodgers at home in the playoffs. Simple enough. I'm not putting much thought into this.
Indy at Baltimore
Let's review why I don't believe Destiny exists (in regards to NFL Playoffs): a few years ago, we very noticeably did not get Brett Favre vs Green Bay in the playoffs. I don't think we're getting Luck v. Manning either. Baltimore wins here handily.
Seattle at Washington
I'm supposed to pick a road team. And I hate Seattle, so they might be my kryptonite. I see a very definite possibility of Seattle flaming out, but I'm going to pick them. Maybe I'll be wrong, in which case I'll be ecstatic.
Quick Fantasy Note:
I lost badly (last place) in my work league. I just missed the playoffs in my Seattle league (short by 20 points).
And I won Go Lions! We are the champions... Let's try for a repeat.
Thursday, September 27, 2012
NFL 2012 - Week 4
Here's my record so far:
15-3-30
Dismal. Fantasy? I'm 3-6. Just as dismal. Glad I didn't take any money to Vegas. Although, to be fair, I did actually pick the Green Bay / Seattle game correctly. Refs cost me that one. I also apparently didn't make a pick on the Jets / Miami game, so I took that as a push.
I'm hoping things are going to even out. Here are my quick picks against the spread this week (which side of the bet I like)
Ravens over 13
Falcons over 8
NE over 5
Det over 5
SD over 1
Seahawks under 3
SF over 5
Texans Under 12
Broncos Under 7
Arizona Over 6
Cincy Over 3
Green Bay Under 8
Tampa Bay Over 3
Eagles Under 1
Dallas Under 4
15-3-30
Dismal. Fantasy? I'm 3-6. Just as dismal. Glad I didn't take any money to Vegas. Although, to be fair, I did actually pick the Green Bay / Seattle game correctly. Refs cost me that one. I also apparently didn't make a pick on the Jets / Miami game, so I took that as a push.
I'm hoping things are going to even out. Here are my quick picks against the spread this week (which side of the bet I like)
Ravens over 13
Falcons over 8
NE over 5
Det over 5
SD over 1
Seahawks under 3
SF over 5
Texans Under 12
Broncos Under 7
Arizona Over 6
Cincy Over 3
Green Bay Under 8
Tampa Bay Over 3
Eagles Under 1
Dallas Under 4
Thursday, September 13, 2012
NFL 12 - Week 2
Rough week. 5-11 against the spread, and 1-2 in Fantasy. I lost one fantasy game by 1.9 points - about 19 yards. Let's move on to this weeks picks (lines are from ESPN):
Bears at Packers (GB under 5): Week 2 is week of the Mirage in the NFL. Who's a mirage and who's for real? Is Green Bay falling down this year, or are the Bears the unstoppable superbowl juggernaut? I'm not sure yet - but I know that GB and CHI usually play close. I predict that GB wins by a field goal, so I like the under.
Chiefs at Bills (Buf under 3): I like me some Jamaal Charles this week, and I like K-City straight up.
Browns at Bengals (Cin Over 7): Take the over here. Rookie qb on the road.
Vikings at Colts (Min Over 2): So the most likely scenario after two weeks - Minnesota all alone in first place in the NFC north. Did you see that coming?
Raiders at Dolphins (Oak Over 3): I'm annoyed that I lost my Oakland pick last week because of a long snapper. Also, Dave has to be a bit worried about San Diego, as they didn't look like rockstars. I'll take Oakland here (Miami is paradoxically much worse at home).
Cardinals at Patriots (NE over 14): A huge line, and maybe too much. Arizona is better than we give them credit for, but I still like the Pats.
Bucs at Giants (NY Over 7): I like New York to bounce back and trounce the Bucs.
Ravens at Eagles (PHI Under 3): How exactly are these two teams even? Even if you could talk me into thinking the offenses are equal (game changing rb's, deep wr's,), the defense of Baltimore should give them more points. I like Baltimore.
Saints at Panthers (NO Over 3): Well, if they don't win this one, I'm going to start worrying about Drew Brees in my auction league.
Texans at Jaguars (Hou Over 8): Blaine Gabbert... I don't trust him against a mediocre team.
Redskins at Rams (WSH Over 3): Whoa, RGIII. Slow your roll. When does the hype train stop? Not this week.
Cowboys at Seahawks (Dal Under 3): Seattle has a great home field. Dallas is due (already) for their choke game where they want to hang Tony Romo afterwards. I guess if I was picking upsets this is it.
Jets at Steelers (Pit Over 6): Jets were a mirage fueled by a crappy Buffalo defense. Pittsburgh may try to murder Tebow if they can.
Titans at Chargers (SD Under 6): SD did not look good. Titans looked ok, just outclassed. I like Tennessee to show up and keep it close.
Lions at 49ers (SF Over 7): Look, I don't know. The smart pick is the over. My heart wants to rebel and say "But the Lions might backdoor cover!" But don't pick on that (Look at last weeks Indy/Chicago pick). I'll pick SF over.
Broncos at Falcons (ATL Under 3): The loss of Brent Grimes hurts bad, and this is not the week to start playing without him. And never ever bet against Peyton Manning on a nationally televised game.
Fantasy: I'm favored in two leagues this week, and a big underdog in one. But I'm pretty sure they've vastly underprojected the Law-Firm and Joe Flacco, who roped me back in.
Bears at Packers (GB under 5): Week 2 is week of the Mirage in the NFL. Who's a mirage and who's for real? Is Green Bay falling down this year, or are the Bears the unstoppable superbowl juggernaut? I'm not sure yet - but I know that GB and CHI usually play close. I predict that GB wins by a field goal, so I like the under.
Chiefs at Bills (Buf under 3): I like me some Jamaal Charles this week, and I like K-City straight up.
Browns at Bengals (Cin Over 7): Take the over here. Rookie qb on the road.
Vikings at Colts (Min Over 2): So the most likely scenario after two weeks - Minnesota all alone in first place in the NFC north. Did you see that coming?
Raiders at Dolphins (Oak Over 3): I'm annoyed that I lost my Oakland pick last week because of a long snapper. Also, Dave has to be a bit worried about San Diego, as they didn't look like rockstars. I'll take Oakland here (Miami is paradoxically much worse at home).
Cardinals at Patriots (NE over 14): A huge line, and maybe too much. Arizona is better than we give them credit for, but I still like the Pats.
Bucs at Giants (NY Over 7): I like New York to bounce back and trounce the Bucs.
Ravens at Eagles (PHI Under 3): How exactly are these two teams even? Even if you could talk me into thinking the offenses are equal (game changing rb's, deep wr's,), the defense of Baltimore should give them more points. I like Baltimore.
Saints at Panthers (NO Over 3): Well, if they don't win this one, I'm going to start worrying about Drew Brees in my auction league.
Texans at Jaguars (Hou Over 8): Blaine Gabbert... I don't trust him against a mediocre team.
Redskins at Rams (WSH Over 3): Whoa, RGIII. Slow your roll. When does the hype train stop? Not this week.
Cowboys at Seahawks (Dal Under 3): Seattle has a great home field. Dallas is due (already) for their choke game where they want to hang Tony Romo afterwards. I guess if I was picking upsets this is it.
Jets at Steelers (Pit Over 6): Jets were a mirage fueled by a crappy Buffalo defense. Pittsburgh may try to murder Tebow if they can.
Titans at Chargers (SD Under 6): SD did not look good. Titans looked ok, just outclassed. I like Tennessee to show up and keep it close.
Lions at 49ers (SF Over 7): Look, I don't know. The smart pick is the over. My heart wants to rebel and say "But the Lions might backdoor cover!" But don't pick on that (Look at last weeks Indy/Chicago pick). I'll pick SF over.
Broncos at Falcons (ATL Under 3): The loss of Brent Grimes hurts bad, and this is not the week to start playing without him. And never ever bet against Peyton Manning on a nationally televised game.
Fantasy: I'm favored in two leagues this week, and a big underdog in one. But I'm pretty sure they've vastly underprojected the Law-Firm and Joe Flacco, who roped me back in.
Friday, September 7, 2012
NFL 12 - Week 1
NFL is back. It's amazing how exciting that becomes, even when it comes back every year. I'm picking strictly against the spread this year, and I'll be getting the spreads from wherever seems convenient. Today's lines are coming from Dave's excellent blog. After the lines, I'll do a couple of season theories and a quick review of my three Fantasy teams.
Dallas at New York - I had NY Over 4. Obviously I already lost this one, but this is a good way to show how a spread works to those that don't know. The line set for this game was NY+4 - meaning you needed to bet either that New York would win by at least that margin or that they wouldn't win by that margin. So, if you bet the over, and Dallas wins or New York only wins by a field goal, then you lose (because the bet went under). Does that make sense? Hopefully. Another thing to note is that if two teams are considered dead even, the home team should be favored by 3.
Colts at Bears - CHI Under 9.5. I like Andrew Luck to come up with a back door cover.
Falcons at Chiefs - ATL Under 3. Hard line, as I'm up on both teams this year. I like the Chiefs to surprise here, as I think their offense might be hard for ATL to handle.
Eagles at Browns - PHI Over 9. Hard to stomach a road team getting 9 points, but God hates Cleveland.
Patriots at Titans - NE Over 6. Lock it up baby! Love New England this year.
Jags at Vikings - MIN Under 4. If you're in an eliminator challenge this week, Minnesota isn't a bad play. How many other times will you get to pick them? I think they win but I'm not giving them that much.
Redskins at Saints - NO Over 7.5. I'm scared of Drew Brees deciding to do a Tom Brady "EFF YOU" season after the Bounty Gate. That's why I bid about $60 on him in my Auction.
Bills at Jets - NYJ Under 3. I hate the Jets so much. This is a hard game, but I'll take the Bills because I can't wait for the Jets to fall apart.
Rams at Lions - DET Over 7.5. Gotta take the home boys. How many touchdowns does Calvin get, and how much of a coming out party is this for Titus Young? Once Finnegan is on Calvin (which won't matter), who's left to cover the fastest guy on the field?
Dolphins at Texans - HOU under 12. Too many points. There's always one team that struggles a bit out of the gate, and I see the Texans winning but getting a bit scared. Let's not forget that the Texans have a history before last year of blowing their first game.
49ers at Packers - GB Over 5. Taking GB; as it's a home game, and I expect a major regression from San Fran.
Seahawks at Cardinals - SEA Under 3. Agree with Dave. Not taking a rookie QB on the road in his first game.
Panthers at Bucs - CAR Under 3. Grantland has been taking about a "plexiglass" principle - teams that bounce dramatically in one direction tend to bounce a bit back towards where they were. Carolina had a +4 win record, Tampa Bay had a -6 win record. I expect them to average out (TB at 7 or 8 wins and CAR at 4 or 5 wins). So I'll take the 'better' team at home.
Steelers at Broncos - DEN Under 1.5. Pittsburgh is really good. And mad about losing last year.
Bengals at Ravens - BAL Over 6. I always give too much respect to Flacco. Also I expect a sophomore slump from Green/Dalton.
Chargers at Raiders - OAK Over 1. Run-DMC isn't hurt yet, and I don't buy the notoriously slow starting Chargers.
A few bold predictions about the season:
At least one of the following teams is overrated and isn't challenging for a playoff spot: Chicago, Buffalo, Seattle.
At least one of the following teams isn't winning their division: Green Bay, New England, Houston.
At least two of these rookies are major disappointments: Russell Wilson, Trent Richardson, Ryan Tannehill.
The following Injury Prone Players play at least 14 games each: Run-DMC, Andre Johnson, Michael Vick.
Fantasy Teams:
In three leagues this year. Here they are and my thoughts:
Go Lions League - Starters: Schaub, Ray Rice, J. Charles, Jordy Nelson, Colston, Jimmy Graham, Green-Ellis, Ryan Succop, and Seahawks D/ST. Bench: McGahee, Kevin Smith, Garcon, Maclin, Little, Blackmon.
I had third pick overall, and I feel real strong about this team. I think I have the best team in this league (definitely top two). I'm weakest at QB, but pretty strong elsewhere. I do have a tendency to draft lots of WR's as opposed to RBs, as we'll see in my other leagues.
TheDream League - Starters: Rodgers, Lloyd, Desean Jackson, Titus Young, Forte, Fred Jackson, Jacob Tamme, Rian Lindell, New England D/ST. Bench: Sidney Rice, Green-Ellis, Deangelo Williams, Malcom Floyd, Jacquizz Rodgers.
I'm annoyed with this team. I was the only player who didn't autodraft, so there were never players that 'fell.' Also, there is no flex spot - it's three WRs. We'll see how it goes.
Seattle Smashers League - Starters: Brees, J. Charles, Bradshaw, Antonio Brown, Lloyd, Tony Gonzalez, Julio Jones, Eagles D/ST, Robbie Gould. Bench: Stevie Johnson, Maclin, Peyton Hillis, Torrey Smith, Isaac Redman, Britt, Ryan Williams.
First ever auction draft. I stuck to nominating players I didn't want to make others spend money (got someone to spend $5 right at the start for a defense!), and had more money at the end of the draft than anyone else. My biggest purchase was Brees at $59 ($200 cap), which was more and earlier than I wanted, but there was a good run on QB's early. Stafford went for $67. Best story: I waited until near the very end to nominate Julio Jones, and got him for $10 because noone had money left. I really enjoyed this style of draft - definitely recommend it. I'm excited for this league.
Dallas at New York - I had NY Over 4. Obviously I already lost this one, but this is a good way to show how a spread works to those that don't know. The line set for this game was NY+4 - meaning you needed to bet either that New York would win by at least that margin or that they wouldn't win by that margin. So, if you bet the over, and Dallas wins or New York only wins by a field goal, then you lose (because the bet went under). Does that make sense? Hopefully. Another thing to note is that if two teams are considered dead even, the home team should be favored by 3.
Colts at Bears - CHI Under 9.5. I like Andrew Luck to come up with a back door cover.
Falcons at Chiefs - ATL Under 3. Hard line, as I'm up on both teams this year. I like the Chiefs to surprise here, as I think their offense might be hard for ATL to handle.
Eagles at Browns - PHI Over 9. Hard to stomach a road team getting 9 points, but God hates Cleveland.
Patriots at Titans - NE Over 6. Lock it up baby! Love New England this year.
Jags at Vikings - MIN Under 4. If you're in an eliminator challenge this week, Minnesota isn't a bad play. How many other times will you get to pick them? I think they win but I'm not giving them that much.
Redskins at Saints - NO Over 7.5. I'm scared of Drew Brees deciding to do a Tom Brady "EFF YOU" season after the Bounty Gate. That's why I bid about $60 on him in my Auction.
Bills at Jets - NYJ Under 3. I hate the Jets so much. This is a hard game, but I'll take the Bills because I can't wait for the Jets to fall apart.
Rams at Lions - DET Over 7.5. Gotta take the home boys. How many touchdowns does Calvin get, and how much of a coming out party is this for Titus Young? Once Finnegan is on Calvin (which won't matter), who's left to cover the fastest guy on the field?
Dolphins at Texans - HOU under 12. Too many points. There's always one team that struggles a bit out of the gate, and I see the Texans winning but getting a bit scared. Let's not forget that the Texans have a history before last year of blowing their first game.
49ers at Packers - GB Over 5. Taking GB; as it's a home game, and I expect a major regression from San Fran.
Seahawks at Cardinals - SEA Under 3. Agree with Dave. Not taking a rookie QB on the road in his first game.
Panthers at Bucs - CAR Under 3. Grantland has been taking about a "plexiglass" principle - teams that bounce dramatically in one direction tend to bounce a bit back towards where they were. Carolina had a +4 win record, Tampa Bay had a -6 win record. I expect them to average out (TB at 7 or 8 wins and CAR at 4 or 5 wins). So I'll take the 'better' team at home.
Steelers at Broncos - DEN Under 1.5. Pittsburgh is really good. And mad about losing last year.
Bengals at Ravens - BAL Over 6. I always give too much respect to Flacco. Also I expect a sophomore slump from Green/Dalton.
Chargers at Raiders - OAK Over 1. Run-DMC isn't hurt yet, and I don't buy the notoriously slow starting Chargers.
A few bold predictions about the season:
At least one of the following teams is overrated and isn't challenging for a playoff spot: Chicago, Buffalo, Seattle.
At least one of the following teams isn't winning their division: Green Bay, New England, Houston.
At least two of these rookies are major disappointments: Russell Wilson, Trent Richardson, Ryan Tannehill.
The following Injury Prone Players play at least 14 games each: Run-DMC, Andre Johnson, Michael Vick.
Fantasy Teams:
In three leagues this year. Here they are and my thoughts:
Go Lions League - Starters: Schaub, Ray Rice, J. Charles, Jordy Nelson, Colston, Jimmy Graham, Green-Ellis, Ryan Succop, and Seahawks D/ST. Bench: McGahee, Kevin Smith, Garcon, Maclin, Little, Blackmon.
I had third pick overall, and I feel real strong about this team. I think I have the best team in this league (definitely top two). I'm weakest at QB, but pretty strong elsewhere. I do have a tendency to draft lots of WR's as opposed to RBs, as we'll see in my other leagues.
TheDream League - Starters: Rodgers, Lloyd, Desean Jackson, Titus Young, Forte, Fred Jackson, Jacob Tamme, Rian Lindell, New England D/ST. Bench: Sidney Rice, Green-Ellis, Deangelo Williams, Malcom Floyd, Jacquizz Rodgers.
I'm annoyed with this team. I was the only player who didn't autodraft, so there were never players that 'fell.' Also, there is no flex spot - it's three WRs. We'll see how it goes.
Seattle Smashers League - Starters: Brees, J. Charles, Bradshaw, Antonio Brown, Lloyd, Tony Gonzalez, Julio Jones, Eagles D/ST, Robbie Gould. Bench: Stevie Johnson, Maclin, Peyton Hillis, Torrey Smith, Isaac Redman, Britt, Ryan Williams.
First ever auction draft. I stuck to nominating players I didn't want to make others spend money (got someone to spend $5 right at the start for a defense!), and had more money at the end of the draft than anyone else. My biggest purchase was Brees at $59 ($200 cap), which was more and earlier than I wanted, but there was a good run on QB's early. Stafford went for $67. Best story: I waited until near the very end to nominate Julio Jones, and got him for $10 because noone had money left. I really enjoyed this style of draft - definitely recommend it. I'm excited for this league.
Thursday, July 5, 2012
The Notepocalypse 2.0: Why I'm not Voting and Why You Shouldn't Either
The Notepocalypse 2 – Why I’m Not Voting (and Why You Shouldn’t Either)
Four years ago, I wrote The Notepocalypse. It had two main goals – explain why I was voting for Barack Obama and call out some of the stupidest political drivel I had seen written on Facebook. It proved to be a rather contentious post, attracting hundred of comments.
So here we are, four years later. And it’s time for something else controversial. Because once again, people are posting political drivel on Facebook. It really is the 21st century lawn sign.
I’m not voting this year. Not at all. I’m going to defuse some of the most common arguments, and then I’m going to explain why you shouldn’t vote either.
“If you don’t vote, then you don’t have a right to complain.” Uh, pretty sure I do. That’s freedom of speech, which is a right that I’m given regardless of whether or not I vote. A flip side of it is that if I vote for a candidate who is disappointing, I also shouldn’t complain. That’s also not true. Just because I voted for Obama in 08 doesn’t mean I don’t believe that he could have done better.
”It’s your civic duty.” Another pithy statement that doesn’t really stand up to any scrutiny. I have a right to, not a responsibility to, vote. No one is making me vote, or holding me accountable to vote. And even if it was an actual duty that just means it’s on the level of jury duty – not exactly high praise.
“This candidate honors God the best/supports more ‘Christian’ policies.” For my Christian friends, some of whom seem to have a hard time realizing that all candidates just give lip service to God. I am curious how the evangelical right will spend this election; is it okay to vote for a Mormon? If that’s okay, then why does the candidate need to be Christian at all?
“But Romans/Acts/Some Other Out of Context Verse tells me I should vote.” No they don’t. You are never asked in the Bible to participate in worldly politics, but simply to not disobey unless a law goes against God. Look at Jesus’ example – he didn’t play around with politics, but existed primarily outside of the political definitions of his day. He was appropriately respectful but also distant.
“Democracy doesn’t work if you don’t vote.” Doesn’t seem to be working all that well with the voting either! Bazing!
Okay, so I think those are the most common arguments as to why I should vote (without getting into particular ideologies). Now, here’s a bunch of reasons not to vote:
“My vote does not matter.” It’s pretty simple math. Even in the 2000 election, which came down to 600 votes or something in the state of Florida, a single vote didn’t do anything. This applies triply so if you don’t live in a “swing” state – if you’re not Ohio or Florida, you should probably save yourself the gas on Election Day.
“My vote does not matter, pt 2.” Let’s say hypothetically that your vote from the prior example did matter. You were the one special snowflake that actually decided a presidency. Great! Were you also the special snowflake that decided hundreds of congress/senate seats? How about judicial appointments? You realize that we have a whole “checks and balances” thing, right? It’s pretty clear from Obama’s last term that it’s not that hard to stymie a president legally. So even in the perfect situation – you elected yourself (who better to agree with your viewpoint), it doesn’t matter as much as you think.
“I have no idea who to vote for.” I’m not talking about presidents here, folks. There are dozens of other names/agendas/propositions on the ballot. The last ballot I cast I voted for the assistant county clerk. I have no idea if the person I voted for can handle the job. Either I vote straight party (which is dangerous, as all parties are filled with idiots) or I vote blindly, in which case a monkey could fill out my ballot.
“I only have two choices.” Well, we’ve had democratic and republican presidents in the past. They are pretty much known quantities with different faces now. What are the chances that the things that we have been doing are actually the things to get us out of the messes we’re in? The definition of insanity is, of course, doing the same thing and expecting dissimilar results. If you want to know how Obama’s second campaign will be, look at his first. If you want to know what a Romney presidency will be like, check out the last republican presidency. Until there’s an actual option for a third party, growth and change are hopeless.
“The people who I’m voting for are politicians.” It is their job, after all, to get you to vote for them. History has shown that people have a strong tendency to put their scruples behind them when they think it involves money or power. Has any president lived up to their campaign promises?
“And finally, a word about the founding fathers.” There is a dangerous misconception that because the founding fathers created a country in 1776 we should always follow what they said. Newsflash: 1770 was nearly 250 years ago. They could not have imagined the world we live in now, and the challenges that we face. Let’s all agree that they had some great ideas, but that we aren’t limited to what they said. Case in point: there’s a meme floating around Facebook that says “Let’s use our tax power to force people to do things, said no founding father ever.” That’s great. Here’s a short list of other things that the founding fathers also never said: “Maybe we should just do what the government wants, according to Romans 13.” Or “Is Facebook a good investment?” or “Mission accomplished.” And they definitely never said “Hey, what does that Black guy / Woman / Muslim / anyone but an old-white-dude think?”
Well, that’s a good start for discussion. What do you think? As a fair warning, enter into the discussion calmly and clearheadedly – stupidity will be labeled as such.
Four years ago, I wrote The Notepocalypse. It had two main goals – explain why I was voting for Barack Obama and call out some of the stupidest political drivel I had seen written on Facebook. It proved to be a rather contentious post, attracting hundred of comments.
So here we are, four years later. And it’s time for something else controversial. Because once again, people are posting political drivel on Facebook. It really is the 21st century lawn sign.
I’m not voting this year. Not at all. I’m going to defuse some of the most common arguments, and then I’m going to explain why you shouldn’t vote either.
“If you don’t vote, then you don’t have a right to complain.” Uh, pretty sure I do. That’s freedom of speech, which is a right that I’m given regardless of whether or not I vote. A flip side of it is that if I vote for a candidate who is disappointing, I also shouldn’t complain. That’s also not true. Just because I voted for Obama in 08 doesn’t mean I don’t believe that he could have done better.
”It’s your civic duty.” Another pithy statement that doesn’t really stand up to any scrutiny. I have a right to, not a responsibility to, vote. No one is making me vote, or holding me accountable to vote. And even if it was an actual duty that just means it’s on the level of jury duty – not exactly high praise.
“This candidate honors God the best/supports more ‘Christian’ policies.” For my Christian friends, some of whom seem to have a hard time realizing that all candidates just give lip service to God. I am curious how the evangelical right will spend this election; is it okay to vote for a Mormon? If that’s okay, then why does the candidate need to be Christian at all?
“But Romans/Acts/Some Other Out of Context Verse tells me I should vote.” No they don’t. You are never asked in the Bible to participate in worldly politics, but simply to not disobey unless a law goes against God. Look at Jesus’ example – he didn’t play around with politics, but existed primarily outside of the political definitions of his day. He was appropriately respectful but also distant.
“Democracy doesn’t work if you don’t vote.” Doesn’t seem to be working all that well with the voting either! Bazing!
Okay, so I think those are the most common arguments as to why I should vote (without getting into particular ideologies). Now, here’s a bunch of reasons not to vote:
“My vote does not matter.” It’s pretty simple math. Even in the 2000 election, which came down to 600 votes or something in the state of Florida, a single vote didn’t do anything. This applies triply so if you don’t live in a “swing” state – if you’re not Ohio or Florida, you should probably save yourself the gas on Election Day.
“My vote does not matter, pt 2.” Let’s say hypothetically that your vote from the prior example did matter. You were the one special snowflake that actually decided a presidency. Great! Were you also the special snowflake that decided hundreds of congress/senate seats? How about judicial appointments? You realize that we have a whole “checks and balances” thing, right? It’s pretty clear from Obama’s last term that it’s not that hard to stymie a president legally. So even in the perfect situation – you elected yourself (who better to agree with your viewpoint), it doesn’t matter as much as you think.
“I have no idea who to vote for.” I’m not talking about presidents here, folks. There are dozens of other names/agendas/propositions on the ballot. The last ballot I cast I voted for the assistant county clerk. I have no idea if the person I voted for can handle the job. Either I vote straight party (which is dangerous, as all parties are filled with idiots) or I vote blindly, in which case a monkey could fill out my ballot.
“I only have two choices.” Well, we’ve had democratic and republican presidents in the past. They are pretty much known quantities with different faces now. What are the chances that the things that we have been doing are actually the things to get us out of the messes we’re in? The definition of insanity is, of course, doing the same thing and expecting dissimilar results. If you want to know how Obama’s second campaign will be, look at his first. If you want to know what a Romney presidency will be like, check out the last republican presidency. Until there’s an actual option for a third party, growth and change are hopeless.
“The people who I’m voting for are politicians.” It is their job, after all, to get you to vote for them. History has shown that people have a strong tendency to put their scruples behind them when they think it involves money or power. Has any president lived up to their campaign promises?
“And finally, a word about the founding fathers.” There is a dangerous misconception that because the founding fathers created a country in 1776 we should always follow what they said. Newsflash: 1770 was nearly 250 years ago. They could not have imagined the world we live in now, and the challenges that we face. Let’s all agree that they had some great ideas, but that we aren’t limited to what they said. Case in point: there’s a meme floating around Facebook that says “Let’s use our tax power to force people to do things, said no founding father ever.” That’s great. Here’s a short list of other things that the founding fathers also never said: “Maybe we should just do what the government wants, according to Romans 13.” Or “Is Facebook a good investment?” or “Mission accomplished.” And they definitely never said “Hey, what does that Black guy / Woman / Muslim / anyone but an old-white-dude think?”
Well, that’s a good start for discussion. What do you think? As a fair warning, enter into the discussion calmly and clearheadedly – stupidity will be labeled as such.
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