NFL: Crystallizing the Playoff Picture

So, the AFC is locked in, and we're just finagling positions. The NFC has two spots up for grabs, and some finagling of positions. I'm not going to write much here, because in a week what I write will be obsolete. Might as well wait and see.

I'm going to review my predictions from the preseason now. Hopefully this doesn't hurt too much.

Correctly predicted that Dallas and San Diego were overhyped (and Green Bay and New York Jets are close to being overhyped).

Correctly predicted that Arizona would drop a ton, but also incorrectly theorized Pittsburgh would.

None of my surprise playoff teams made it in (Carolina, Houston, Cleveland).

Dead right about Seattle / Denver. Nothing new in their fronts.

Was wrong about worst team. Tampa turned out to be a good crappy team and Buffalo showed some spunk.

Ryan Matthews was a bust in San Diego. Glad I didn't draft him. Suh was a marvel though.

I did predict Detroit would challenge third place in the division.

My quarterback analysis wasn't bad. Flacco probably didn't belong in the top 6.

Cleveland wasn't bad down the stretch, but didn't come close to 9-7.

I picked 6/12 correct playoff teams. That's really not that good.

Let's just move on to some slightly better picks.

Week 16 in Review:

Correct Picks: Steelers, Patriots, Bears, Ravens, Rams, Colts, Packers, Buccaneers, Saints

Incorrect Picks: Cowboys, Titans (upset), Dolphins, Jaguars, Chargers (lock), Texans, Eagles

Week: 9-7

Overall: 140-98

Lock: 11-5

Upset: 5-10

Week 17 Picks:

Panthers at Falcons: A strange must-win game for the Falcons, and not a must-lose game for Carolina. I'd like to think Carolina would rise up and try to have a say in the division, but they just don't have the talent to compete with Atlanta. So Atlanta wins.

Steelers at Browns: Not a gimme game for the Steelers. The Browns have been playing to the level of their opponents - crappy against crappy teams, good against good teams. I'll take Cleveland as an upset.

Viking at Lions: I wasn't going to pick the Lions this week, but the Vikings play the weird Tuesday game, so they'll be done. I'll take the Lions. Although, I don't like the thought of Brett Favre having his final game against Detroit.

Raiders at Chiefs: As the Chiefs, I may actually want to lose this game and get the 4th seed. Because in round 2, I'd much rather play New England than Pittsburgh (if I'm a running team anyway). I think Oakland wins because Kansas City isn't worried.

Dolphins at Patriots: Patriots do play hard in these games, and the Dolphins are really not a good team. I think the Patriots will win, because Miami can't come back when Tom Brady buries them by 30 points in the first quarter.

Buccaneers at Saints: Probably a meaningless game for New Orleans, but a must-win for Tampa. So I'll take Tampa. (Although can you imagine the craziness if New Orleans somehow snuck into the #1 seed? That would be a blindside for the ages.)

Bills at Jets: The Bills, as they won't let Mark Sanchez get within ten feet (heh) of the field.

Bengals at Ravens: Baltimore has the potential to win their division, but they did play their worst game of the season against Cincinnati. Unfortunately, passionate revenge and Joe Flacco don't really go in the same sentence. So, in a stunning move, I'm taking the Bengals as a second Upset (mostly because for some reason I've only picked 15 upsets to this point).

Chargers at Broncos: Who cares! Chargers will beat up on Tebow to take out their frustrations.

Bears at Packers: Green Bay is sort of maddeningly inconsistent. Have they posted two or three good games in a row? Chicago is at least consistent (they win games but look like they should lose). I guess I'll take Green Bay.

Titans at Colts: Don't bet against the Colts, at least until the playoffs.

Cowboys at Eagles: Meaningless! Vick plays a quarter, and then Kevin Kolb picks apart the Cowboys secondary. I think this is a better game for Kolb to play in anyway, as Dallas does have a pretty bad defense.

Cardinals at 49ers: Uglyrama. Take the home team, don't watch.

Giants at Redskins: The Redskins are the Vikings of the second half of the season - a crappy team dominating headlines. I subscribe to the notion that the Giants have folded, so I will pick Rex Grossman. If I ever have to type that sentence again, you know there is a gun to my head.

Jaguars at Texans: I haven't heard, but if Jones-Drew is playing I'll take the Jaguars. Actually, I'll just take the Jaguars no matter what.

Rams at Seahawks: And it comes to this. The 7-8 Rams at the 6-9 Seahawks for supremacy of the NFC West and the right to be trounced by New Orleans. I think I'm going to take the Seahawks. Two reasons, neither having to do with football (because these teams don't really play football). Number one - After Seattle makes it as 7-9 team, there is bound to be an outcry to reseed the playoffs. Number two - I could potentially go to the New Orleans game and get drunk and make fun of Seattle fans. So Seattle is my Lock.

Predicted Seedings:

AFC (In Order): New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Baltimore, New York

NFC (In Order): Atlanta, Chicago, Philadelphia, Seattle, New Orleans, Green Bay