Here's my record so far:
15-3-30
Dismal. Fantasy? I'm 3-6. Just as dismal. Glad I didn't take any money to Vegas. Although, to be fair, I did actually pick the Green Bay / Seattle game correctly. Refs cost me that one. I also apparently didn't make a pick on the Jets / Miami game, so I took that as a push.
I'm hoping things are going to even out. Here are my quick picks against the spread this week (which side of the bet I like)
Ravens over 13
Falcons over 8
NE over 5
Det over 5
SD over 1
Seahawks under 3
SF over 5
Texans Under 12
Broncos Under 7
Arizona Over 6
Cincy Over 3
Green Bay Under 8
Tampa Bay Over 3
Eagles Under 1
Dallas Under 4
Thursday, September 27, 2012
Thursday, September 13, 2012
NFL 12 - Week 2
Rough week. 5-11 against the spread, and 1-2 in Fantasy. I lost one fantasy game by 1.9 points - about 19 yards. Let's move on to this weeks picks (lines are from ESPN):
Bears at Packers (GB under 5): Week 2 is week of the Mirage in the NFL. Who's a mirage and who's for real? Is Green Bay falling down this year, or are the Bears the unstoppable superbowl juggernaut? I'm not sure yet - but I know that GB and CHI usually play close. I predict that GB wins by a field goal, so I like the under.
Chiefs at Bills (Buf under 3): I like me some Jamaal Charles this week, and I like K-City straight up.
Browns at Bengals (Cin Over 7): Take the over here. Rookie qb on the road.
Vikings at Colts (Min Over 2): So the most likely scenario after two weeks - Minnesota all alone in first place in the NFC north. Did you see that coming?
Raiders at Dolphins (Oak Over 3): I'm annoyed that I lost my Oakland pick last week because of a long snapper. Also, Dave has to be a bit worried about San Diego, as they didn't look like rockstars. I'll take Oakland here (Miami is paradoxically much worse at home).
Cardinals at Patriots (NE over 14): A huge line, and maybe too much. Arizona is better than we give them credit for, but I still like the Pats.
Bucs at Giants (NY Over 7): I like New York to bounce back and trounce the Bucs.
Ravens at Eagles (PHI Under 3): How exactly are these two teams even? Even if you could talk me into thinking the offenses are equal (game changing rb's, deep wr's,), the defense of Baltimore should give them more points. I like Baltimore.
Saints at Panthers (NO Over 3): Well, if they don't win this one, I'm going to start worrying about Drew Brees in my auction league.
Texans at Jaguars (Hou Over 8): Blaine Gabbert... I don't trust him against a mediocre team.
Redskins at Rams (WSH Over 3): Whoa, RGIII. Slow your roll. When does the hype train stop? Not this week.
Cowboys at Seahawks (Dal Under 3): Seattle has a great home field. Dallas is due (already) for their choke game where they want to hang Tony Romo afterwards. I guess if I was picking upsets this is it.
Jets at Steelers (Pit Over 6): Jets were a mirage fueled by a crappy Buffalo defense. Pittsburgh may try to murder Tebow if they can.
Titans at Chargers (SD Under 6): SD did not look good. Titans looked ok, just outclassed. I like Tennessee to show up and keep it close.
Lions at 49ers (SF Over 7): Look, I don't know. The smart pick is the over. My heart wants to rebel and say "But the Lions might backdoor cover!" But don't pick on that (Look at last weeks Indy/Chicago pick). I'll pick SF over.
Broncos at Falcons (ATL Under 3): The loss of Brent Grimes hurts bad, and this is not the week to start playing without him. And never ever bet against Peyton Manning on a nationally televised game.
Fantasy: I'm favored in two leagues this week, and a big underdog in one. But I'm pretty sure they've vastly underprojected the Law-Firm and Joe Flacco, who roped me back in.
Bears at Packers (GB under 5): Week 2 is week of the Mirage in the NFL. Who's a mirage and who's for real? Is Green Bay falling down this year, or are the Bears the unstoppable superbowl juggernaut? I'm not sure yet - but I know that GB and CHI usually play close. I predict that GB wins by a field goal, so I like the under.
Chiefs at Bills (Buf under 3): I like me some Jamaal Charles this week, and I like K-City straight up.
Browns at Bengals (Cin Over 7): Take the over here. Rookie qb on the road.
Vikings at Colts (Min Over 2): So the most likely scenario after two weeks - Minnesota all alone in first place in the NFC north. Did you see that coming?
Raiders at Dolphins (Oak Over 3): I'm annoyed that I lost my Oakland pick last week because of a long snapper. Also, Dave has to be a bit worried about San Diego, as they didn't look like rockstars. I'll take Oakland here (Miami is paradoxically much worse at home).
Cardinals at Patriots (NE over 14): A huge line, and maybe too much. Arizona is better than we give them credit for, but I still like the Pats.
Bucs at Giants (NY Over 7): I like New York to bounce back and trounce the Bucs.
Ravens at Eagles (PHI Under 3): How exactly are these two teams even? Even if you could talk me into thinking the offenses are equal (game changing rb's, deep wr's,), the defense of Baltimore should give them more points. I like Baltimore.
Saints at Panthers (NO Over 3): Well, if they don't win this one, I'm going to start worrying about Drew Brees in my auction league.
Texans at Jaguars (Hou Over 8): Blaine Gabbert... I don't trust him against a mediocre team.
Redskins at Rams (WSH Over 3): Whoa, RGIII. Slow your roll. When does the hype train stop? Not this week.
Cowboys at Seahawks (Dal Under 3): Seattle has a great home field. Dallas is due (already) for their choke game where they want to hang Tony Romo afterwards. I guess if I was picking upsets this is it.
Jets at Steelers (Pit Over 6): Jets were a mirage fueled by a crappy Buffalo defense. Pittsburgh may try to murder Tebow if they can.
Titans at Chargers (SD Under 6): SD did not look good. Titans looked ok, just outclassed. I like Tennessee to show up and keep it close.
Lions at 49ers (SF Over 7): Look, I don't know. The smart pick is the over. My heart wants to rebel and say "But the Lions might backdoor cover!" But don't pick on that (Look at last weeks Indy/Chicago pick). I'll pick SF over.
Broncos at Falcons (ATL Under 3): The loss of Brent Grimes hurts bad, and this is not the week to start playing without him. And never ever bet against Peyton Manning on a nationally televised game.
Fantasy: I'm favored in two leagues this week, and a big underdog in one. But I'm pretty sure they've vastly underprojected the Law-Firm and Joe Flacco, who roped me back in.
Friday, September 7, 2012
NFL 12 - Week 1
NFL is back. It's amazing how exciting that becomes, even when it comes back every year. I'm picking strictly against the spread this year, and I'll be getting the spreads from wherever seems convenient. Today's lines are coming from Dave's excellent blog. After the lines, I'll do a couple of season theories and a quick review of my three Fantasy teams.
Dallas at New York - I had NY Over 4. Obviously I already lost this one, but this is a good way to show how a spread works to those that don't know. The line set for this game was NY+4 - meaning you needed to bet either that New York would win by at least that margin or that they wouldn't win by that margin. So, if you bet the over, and Dallas wins or New York only wins by a field goal, then you lose (because the bet went under). Does that make sense? Hopefully. Another thing to note is that if two teams are considered dead even, the home team should be favored by 3.
Colts at Bears - CHI Under 9.5. I like Andrew Luck to come up with a back door cover.
Falcons at Chiefs - ATL Under 3. Hard line, as I'm up on both teams this year. I like the Chiefs to surprise here, as I think their offense might be hard for ATL to handle.
Eagles at Browns - PHI Over 9. Hard to stomach a road team getting 9 points, but God hates Cleveland.
Patriots at Titans - NE Over 6. Lock it up baby! Love New England this year.
Jags at Vikings - MIN Under 4. If you're in an eliminator challenge this week, Minnesota isn't a bad play. How many other times will you get to pick them? I think they win but I'm not giving them that much.
Redskins at Saints - NO Over 7.5. I'm scared of Drew Brees deciding to do a Tom Brady "EFF YOU" season after the Bounty Gate. That's why I bid about $60 on him in my Auction.
Bills at Jets - NYJ Under 3. I hate the Jets so much. This is a hard game, but I'll take the Bills because I can't wait for the Jets to fall apart.
Rams at Lions - DET Over 7.5. Gotta take the home boys. How many touchdowns does Calvin get, and how much of a coming out party is this for Titus Young? Once Finnegan is on Calvin (which won't matter), who's left to cover the fastest guy on the field?
Dolphins at Texans - HOU under 12. Too many points. There's always one team that struggles a bit out of the gate, and I see the Texans winning but getting a bit scared. Let's not forget that the Texans have a history before last year of blowing their first game.
49ers at Packers - GB Over 5. Taking GB; as it's a home game, and I expect a major regression from San Fran.
Seahawks at Cardinals - SEA Under 3. Agree with Dave. Not taking a rookie QB on the road in his first game.
Panthers at Bucs - CAR Under 3. Grantland has been taking about a "plexiglass" principle - teams that bounce dramatically in one direction tend to bounce a bit back towards where they were. Carolina had a +4 win record, Tampa Bay had a -6 win record. I expect them to average out (TB at 7 or 8 wins and CAR at 4 or 5 wins). So I'll take the 'better' team at home.
Steelers at Broncos - DEN Under 1.5. Pittsburgh is really good. And mad about losing last year.
Bengals at Ravens - BAL Over 6. I always give too much respect to Flacco. Also I expect a sophomore slump from Green/Dalton.
Chargers at Raiders - OAK Over 1. Run-DMC isn't hurt yet, and I don't buy the notoriously slow starting Chargers.
A few bold predictions about the season:
At least one of the following teams is overrated and isn't challenging for a playoff spot: Chicago, Buffalo, Seattle.
At least one of the following teams isn't winning their division: Green Bay, New England, Houston.
At least two of these rookies are major disappointments: Russell Wilson, Trent Richardson, Ryan Tannehill.
The following Injury Prone Players play at least 14 games each: Run-DMC, Andre Johnson, Michael Vick.
Fantasy Teams:
In three leagues this year. Here they are and my thoughts:
Go Lions League - Starters: Schaub, Ray Rice, J. Charles, Jordy Nelson, Colston, Jimmy Graham, Green-Ellis, Ryan Succop, and Seahawks D/ST. Bench: McGahee, Kevin Smith, Garcon, Maclin, Little, Blackmon.
I had third pick overall, and I feel real strong about this team. I think I have the best team in this league (definitely top two). I'm weakest at QB, but pretty strong elsewhere. I do have a tendency to draft lots of WR's as opposed to RBs, as we'll see in my other leagues.
TheDream League - Starters: Rodgers, Lloyd, Desean Jackson, Titus Young, Forte, Fred Jackson, Jacob Tamme, Rian Lindell, New England D/ST. Bench: Sidney Rice, Green-Ellis, Deangelo Williams, Malcom Floyd, Jacquizz Rodgers.
I'm annoyed with this team. I was the only player who didn't autodraft, so there were never players that 'fell.' Also, there is no flex spot - it's three WRs. We'll see how it goes.
Seattle Smashers League - Starters: Brees, J. Charles, Bradshaw, Antonio Brown, Lloyd, Tony Gonzalez, Julio Jones, Eagles D/ST, Robbie Gould. Bench: Stevie Johnson, Maclin, Peyton Hillis, Torrey Smith, Isaac Redman, Britt, Ryan Williams.
First ever auction draft. I stuck to nominating players I didn't want to make others spend money (got someone to spend $5 right at the start for a defense!), and had more money at the end of the draft than anyone else. My biggest purchase was Brees at $59 ($200 cap), which was more and earlier than I wanted, but there was a good run on QB's early. Stafford went for $67. Best story: I waited until near the very end to nominate Julio Jones, and got him for $10 because noone had money left. I really enjoyed this style of draft - definitely recommend it. I'm excited for this league.
Dallas at New York - I had NY Over 4. Obviously I already lost this one, but this is a good way to show how a spread works to those that don't know. The line set for this game was NY+4 - meaning you needed to bet either that New York would win by at least that margin or that they wouldn't win by that margin. So, if you bet the over, and Dallas wins or New York only wins by a field goal, then you lose (because the bet went under). Does that make sense? Hopefully. Another thing to note is that if two teams are considered dead even, the home team should be favored by 3.
Colts at Bears - CHI Under 9.5. I like Andrew Luck to come up with a back door cover.
Falcons at Chiefs - ATL Under 3. Hard line, as I'm up on both teams this year. I like the Chiefs to surprise here, as I think their offense might be hard for ATL to handle.
Eagles at Browns - PHI Over 9. Hard to stomach a road team getting 9 points, but God hates Cleveland.
Patriots at Titans - NE Over 6. Lock it up baby! Love New England this year.
Jags at Vikings - MIN Under 4. If you're in an eliminator challenge this week, Minnesota isn't a bad play. How many other times will you get to pick them? I think they win but I'm not giving them that much.
Redskins at Saints - NO Over 7.5. I'm scared of Drew Brees deciding to do a Tom Brady "EFF YOU" season after the Bounty Gate. That's why I bid about $60 on him in my Auction.
Bills at Jets - NYJ Under 3. I hate the Jets so much. This is a hard game, but I'll take the Bills because I can't wait for the Jets to fall apart.
Rams at Lions - DET Over 7.5. Gotta take the home boys. How many touchdowns does Calvin get, and how much of a coming out party is this for Titus Young? Once Finnegan is on Calvin (which won't matter), who's left to cover the fastest guy on the field?
Dolphins at Texans - HOU under 12. Too many points. There's always one team that struggles a bit out of the gate, and I see the Texans winning but getting a bit scared. Let's not forget that the Texans have a history before last year of blowing their first game.
49ers at Packers - GB Over 5. Taking GB; as it's a home game, and I expect a major regression from San Fran.
Seahawks at Cardinals - SEA Under 3. Agree with Dave. Not taking a rookie QB on the road in his first game.
Panthers at Bucs - CAR Under 3. Grantland has been taking about a "plexiglass" principle - teams that bounce dramatically in one direction tend to bounce a bit back towards where they were. Carolina had a +4 win record, Tampa Bay had a -6 win record. I expect them to average out (TB at 7 or 8 wins and CAR at 4 or 5 wins). So I'll take the 'better' team at home.
Steelers at Broncos - DEN Under 1.5. Pittsburgh is really good. And mad about losing last year.
Bengals at Ravens - BAL Over 6. I always give too much respect to Flacco. Also I expect a sophomore slump from Green/Dalton.
Chargers at Raiders - OAK Over 1. Run-DMC isn't hurt yet, and I don't buy the notoriously slow starting Chargers.
A few bold predictions about the season:
At least one of the following teams is overrated and isn't challenging for a playoff spot: Chicago, Buffalo, Seattle.
At least one of the following teams isn't winning their division: Green Bay, New England, Houston.
At least two of these rookies are major disappointments: Russell Wilson, Trent Richardson, Ryan Tannehill.
The following Injury Prone Players play at least 14 games each: Run-DMC, Andre Johnson, Michael Vick.
Fantasy Teams:
In three leagues this year. Here they are and my thoughts:
Go Lions League - Starters: Schaub, Ray Rice, J. Charles, Jordy Nelson, Colston, Jimmy Graham, Green-Ellis, Ryan Succop, and Seahawks D/ST. Bench: McGahee, Kevin Smith, Garcon, Maclin, Little, Blackmon.
I had third pick overall, and I feel real strong about this team. I think I have the best team in this league (definitely top two). I'm weakest at QB, but pretty strong elsewhere. I do have a tendency to draft lots of WR's as opposed to RBs, as we'll see in my other leagues.
TheDream League - Starters: Rodgers, Lloyd, Desean Jackson, Titus Young, Forte, Fred Jackson, Jacob Tamme, Rian Lindell, New England D/ST. Bench: Sidney Rice, Green-Ellis, Deangelo Williams, Malcom Floyd, Jacquizz Rodgers.
I'm annoyed with this team. I was the only player who didn't autodraft, so there were never players that 'fell.' Also, there is no flex spot - it's three WRs. We'll see how it goes.
Seattle Smashers League - Starters: Brees, J. Charles, Bradshaw, Antonio Brown, Lloyd, Tony Gonzalez, Julio Jones, Eagles D/ST, Robbie Gould. Bench: Stevie Johnson, Maclin, Peyton Hillis, Torrey Smith, Isaac Redman, Britt, Ryan Williams.
First ever auction draft. I stuck to nominating players I didn't want to make others spend money (got someone to spend $5 right at the start for a defense!), and had more money at the end of the draft than anyone else. My biggest purchase was Brees at $59 ($200 cap), which was more and earlier than I wanted, but there was a good run on QB's early. Stafford went for $67. Best story: I waited until near the very end to nominate Julio Jones, and got him for $10 because noone had money left. I really enjoyed this style of draft - definitely recommend it. I'm excited for this league.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)