NFL: Week 7 Review

Shrug. I told you it was a pick em affair. I think next week I'll start a new type of pick, to replace the long forgotten x-factor - the Fluke of the Week (this week: Oakland!)

Bengals at Falcons

Redskins at Bears

Eagles at Titans

Jaguars at Chiefs

Steelers at Dolphins

Browns at Saints

Rams at Buccaneers

49ers at Panthers

Bills at Ravens

Cardinals at Seahawks

Raiders at Broncos

Patriots at Chargers (Upset)

Vikings at Packers

Giants at Cowboys (Lock)

Week: 4-10

Year: 54-50

Lock: 4-3

Upset: 1-6

NFL: Week 7 Picks

Quite the slate of weird games this week. I think it's entirely possible to misread the week and end up with another 6-10 or 5-11 week. 10 of the 14 games have spreads of less than 5 points. Ah randomness, to the picks.

Bengals at Falcons: See, this is a game I don't know about. I wonder if Carson Palmer could rebound. But I also think the Falcons could rebound. The line for the game is ATL +4; I think I'll take Atlanta. Homefield wins in case of doubt.

Redskins at Bears: Jeez, two games in a row. Raise your hand if you think the Bears are any good. Now raise your hand if you think the Redskins are any good. Washington lost a close one to Indianapolis; and the Bears looked horrible against the Seahawks. If I was to guess, I would think Mike Martz will do the smart thing and actually use Matt Forte again. But Washington has to see that coming.... BAH! I'll take Bears.

Eagles at Titans: Both teams came off impressive wins last week. But I still think the Titans may be a great rough team in the making, so I'll take them.

Jaguars at Chiefs: The first 8 teams so far have been maddeningly imprecise. Who knows in any of these picks? Seriously, flip a coin. A hometeam gets three points for being a hometeam, and ATL is +4, Bears and Titans are +3. And Chiefs/Jags are even. I'm going to pick the Jaguars though; big rebound game for MJD.

Steelers at Dolphins: Now we start to get some games that are easier to pick. Steelers. Miami hasn't beaten anyone of importance yet (Minn? Green Bay? Buffalo?).

Browns at Saints: Ooh, possible trap game? Or are the Saints back to form? This is a good litmus test. If the Browns stay in or win this game, I think we can probably safely write off New Orleans. Since I'm not ready for that, I'll pick the Saints. (Maybe the Madden curse is hitting the players around Drew Brees, huh?)

Rams at Buccaneers: Can you believe these teams are both decent this year? And the winner has a decent look at the playoffs? I'm picking St Louis. I think they're a more complete team.

49ers at Panthers: Homedog syndrome. So I'll take Carolina... Crickets chirp. Wait, that's a dumb idea. I'll take San Francisco.

Bills at Ravens: Championship teams blow out these sort of games. See what the Jets did to Buffalo a few weeks ago, now realize that the Ravens are better than the Jets. I pick the Ravens.

Cardinals at Seahawks: Does anyone know if either of these teams are even average? I guess I'll take Arizona; Seattle didn't win last week, Chicago lost.

Raiders at Broncos: Denver, by a mile. They're getting desperate. (Side note: are they perhaps the most fun team to watch right now? They basically run a Madden videogame offense and every game seems to end on the last play.)

Patriots at Chargers: I'm gonna maybe cheat a little and take San Diego as my Upset. Patriots are traveling across the coast and just won an emotional game against the Ravens.

Vikings at Packers: Armageddon. Is Brett distracted? Is he finally going to have a Favre game where he throws a ton of passes that miraculously get caught? I think I'll take the Vikings. They played a solid game and let Dallas beat themselves; and I think it will help their confidence this week.

Giants at Cowboys: Giants are getting a little too full of themselves, so I'll take Dallas as the Lock.

NFL: Week 6 Review

Woo! Let's take a look at the picks (mine in italics, correct in bold):

Seahawks at Bears

Dolphins at Packers

Chargers at Rams

Ravens at Patriots

Lions at Giants

Falcons at Eagles

Browns at Steelers (lock)

Saints at Buccaneers

Chiefs at Texans

Jets at Broncos

Raiders at 49ers
Cowboys at Vikings

Colts at Redskins

Titans at Jaguars

Week: 10-4

Year: 50-40

Lock: 4-2

Upset: 1-5

Heck yeah, what a good weekend. I went 10-4, won my Fantasy game by .8 points, and looked nearly prescient. My Denver as upset pick was my sole heartbreaker; and that I blame on the rest of the country jumping on my bandwagon and picking the same upset. Here's a rule: if 90% of the country thinks it's an upset, 90% of the time it won't be. So my upset got... upset?

Let's look real quick at a few other NFL predictions; I already detailed how well I'm doing having picked the division winners.

Best Prediction:

Overhyped: Dallas Cowboys, New York Jets, and one of either: Green Bay, Baltimore, San Diego. At least two of those teams will miss the playoffs, but they're all ranked in the top 8 of Sports Illustrated's Power Rankings.

I nailed that, huh? Dallas and San Diego for sure, and possibly Green Bay.

Worst Prediction:

Ultra Surprise Dark Horse: Ladies and gentlemen, the Cleveland Browns!

A swing and a miss!

Writing

I've been musing about writing again for some time. I've been thinking about what I should be writing; which is encouraging. Too often I fall into the trap of I should be writing and stop thinking about the why or the content.

I see it on this blog. Other than my NFL posts, which aren't what I consider writing, the blog has been pretty sparse. Occasionally I'll break through and write something meaningful, but I'll confess that sometimes it feels like pulling teeth.

I've long believed that life moves in cycles. Specifically, my creative impulses move like the tides - there is a definite ebb and flow. I will go through a period where I absolutely devour books; another time where I am literally writing so much for the blog that I have to plan it out and think about what meshes well; and other times I'm very engrossed in gaming and strategic thoughts. Certainly, I do all of these at the same time; but one of them will tend to dominate my free time. For example, just because I'm reading a ton, doesn't mean I won't be playing Warhammer.

I think the cycles each represent something for me:

a) Reading is my input cycle. I devour books when I'm in this cycle. It's not uncommon for me to hit up a used book store and bring home four books of different genre's and read them in the space of a single weekend. I think this is what opens me up to new ideas and new thought processes. I let thoughts and concepts enter my brain and soak in.

b) Gaming is my vegetative cycle. I'm shutting down the input and output sections of my brain and testing what I've learned. Sometimes this plays out on a tabletop or in a video game; sometimes it just plays out in my imagination and thought processes. This is a period of testing; of divination; of sorting out the wheat from the chaffe.

c) Writing is the output cycle. After learning and after testing, I can go through a period where I find new ways to express and create what I've learned. I pour out what's been rattling around until I'm empty again.

Right now, I feel myself pulling out of the gaming cycle and moving towards a writing cycle. I'll still 'game' and still read, but I think I feel major creative potential welling. I'm planning to take advantage of that and write something; perhaps something more than can be contained on this blog. A few projects that have been more or less on hold:

1. Ashram - Needs a rewrite to get to a third draft.

2. My Mom's Story - Only ever wrote two chapters.

3. 337 - Mostly defunct at this point. Would need a few other life changes to get back to this.

4. Various Fictional Ideas - No work done besides preliminary dreaming and basic plotting.

Writing those out, my gut leans towards writing more of my Mom's story. That's hard, but the other projects seem harder in my mind. And it would be good to have this particular story out of the way. I think my goal will be to have something new completed (first draft) by Christmas.

Anyway, that's a bit of a peak into the creative process for me and a bit of my thought process currently. I would appreciate any encouragement you have!

NFL: Week 6 Picks

Before we make the week 6 picks, I have a few thoughts:

Here are the 09/10 Division winners: Dallas, Minnesota, New Orleans, Arizona, New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, San Diego. They are currently 17-17, and the only one currently leading their division is the horrid Arizona Cardinals.

Now imagine if... You picked your preseason division winners as the above list and you're only change was to take San Francisco and Pittsburgh (respectable preseason picks). Congrats, you are 15-20.

For the record, my divisional winners were Ravens, Chargers, Colts, Patriots, Saints, Packers, Eagles, and Cardinals. I'm 24-15.

The Picks:

Seahawks at Bears: Well, this is getting ridiculous. I can't keep making excuses for the Bears, who keep winning despite being the worst 4-1 team in history. They're soon to be the worst 5-1 team in history, because Seattle is even worse on the road. Another big game for Matt Forte.

Dolphins at Packers: Will Aaron Rodgers play? That effects my pick, I think. If it's Matt Flynn playing, I'll take the Dolphins. In fact, if Green Bay wasn't edging into mental desperation mode, I would still take them, but I think if Rodgers plays I'll take the Packers.

Chargers at Rams: San Diego is still pretty bad on the road. But I don't think Sam Bradford can put up the 400 yards or whatever to beat Philip Rivers. Bradford is good, but he's not great. Yet.

Ravens at Patriots: Ooh, tough game to pick. I'll take the Patriots (homefield).

Lions at Giants: Could the Lions win two in a row for the first time since 1903? Uh, nope. I hope Matt Stafford doesn't play this game - the Giants still have an ugly defense who would be only too happy to break another quarterback. Giants win.

Falcons at Eagles: I sense that if I hated the Falcons like I hate the Bears, I would find lots of reasons to doubt them... So I'll pick Philadelphia.

Browns at Steelers: Lock of the Week. Colt McCoy on the road at Pittsburgh... That should be pretty terrifying for Cleveland people.

Saints at Buccaneers: It amuses me to think that I could almost take this an upset by picking New Orleans. But yeah, New Orleans wins. (Tampa Bay has a better record than NO; isn't that insane?)

Chiefs at Texans: I still think the Chiefs fluked out for three games. Texans are a solid team and should win this one.

Jets at Broncos: Home field advantage, and Kyle Orton has already shown that he can shred a good passing defense. And the Jets didn't exactly shut down Flacco/Brady/Favre. I'll pick Bronco's in my Upset of the Week.

Raiders at 49ers: Classic let down game for Oakland, right? And San Francisco has to win eventually. Might as well take them now.

Cowboys at Vikings: Who is more desperate? Here's my real question - at what point will Favre just say "This is ridiculous. I'm retiring effective immediately." Week 8? 9? Seriously, he has no reputation left. He's no longer "having fun out there." And would he risk his starting streak ended by a sexting allegation? I think Dallas comes out and throttles him, and he decides to pack it up. Thursday Update: I change my pick to the Vikings. Gotta remember they won 34-3 last year.

Colts at Redskins: When will the Colts start playing like the Colts? Probably this week. I tell you what scares me though... I have no doubt that the Colts will win 10 straight every season. And if they don't start the season with that craziness, they're going to end with it.

Titans at Jaguars: The Jaguars aren't a good team, and Tennessee might be a great team. Titans have lost to Pittsburgh, who may be one of the best AFC teams, and to Denver - the game in which everyone started to realize that Kyle Orton might start shredding records this year. Kyle Freaking Orton. Anyway, I'll take the Titans.

I'll be reviewing more of my preseason predictions with the review of these picks next week. Enjoy!

NFL: Week 5 Review

Horrible weekend... Let's look at the picks (mine in italics, winner in bold)

Jaguars at Bills

Buccaneers at Bengals

Falcons at Browns

Rams at Lions

Chiefs at Colts

Packers at Redskins

Bears at Panthers

Broncos at Ravens (lock)

Giants at Texans

Saints at Cardinals

Titans at Cowboys

Chargers at Raiders

Eagles at 49ers

Vikings at Jets (upset)

Week Record: 5-9
Year Record: 40-36

Lock of the Week: 3-2

Upset of the Week: 1-4

0-4 Teams... I picked Detroit, San Francisco, and Carolina to win. Detroit did (largest victory margin since 1995, I think I read). On another note, I was 0-4 in fantasy and finally won. Pretty sure Buffalo will be the last winless team.

Fantasy Debate.... I picked up Kyle Orton at the season start for kicks and giggles... that's working out pretty well, I guess. Except I keep playing Flacco. I think I'm going to try and trade one this week for a solid running back to go with Matt Forte.

Week 6: I have no idea what to expect from this schizophrenic season. Maybe I should throw darts?

Goat?

Some of you may be asking why that Goat is ruining my profile picture. More mean spirited readers may be wondering why Andy is ruining that Goat's profile picture.

Well, the Goat (I have decided his name is Rufus) and I have decided to partner up and promote World Concern's Global Gift Guide. World Concern is a Christian World Relief Organization, and part of CRISTA Ministries, where I work.

The Global Gift Guide is just that - a guide to donating money to World Concern. Instead of your standard donation, you can elect to buy a gift for people in other countries. The gifts range in price and include chickens, vaccines, teaching, and yes, goats (amongst other things).

I encourage you to take a look and see if you'd like to donate anything this year. The Global Gift Guide is found here; if you specifically want to buy a goat, try here.

And no, Rufus is not for sale.