NFL Championship Weekend

Straight up 4-4 throughout. I missed on what team would lay an egg (although Baltimore came close anyway).

Important thing to remember here: Destiny doesn't exist. The two matchups that the media is dreaming about (Super Bowl 07 rematch; Harbowl) aren't going to happen. This isn't a sports movie that will line up at the last second.

So, seconds before the first game:

I like New England (but not by 9) and I like San Fran (over three).

NFL Divisional Weekend

2-2 Last Week. Lions should have no shame in getting blown out by the Saints.

On to this week...

One home team is blowing it. Let's be honest. That's whats happening. The obvious (and therefore not happening) choices are San Fran and Green Bay. I think San Fran may still lose, but the narrative won't be "sluggish and hurt by the bye." The choice for that narrative will be between Baltimore or New England, which both have a recent history of not showing up at times in the postseason. We'll figure it out shortly!

Saints at 49ers (NO by 4): Overhype alert: New Orleans. No respect for a team that won the bye. I'll take the 49ers. I think if you can rattle Drew Brees in the first half and play good defense in the second half (the Lions were halfway there), you have a good shot. San Fran will slow down the game, and that will frustrate Brees. I like San Fran to win here.

Broncos at Patriots (NE by 14): New England does have our potential blown potential narrative, and when we combine that with possibility of the "miraculous Tim Tebow comeback that in retrospect shouldn't be credited to Tim Tebow but rather to some dumb luck and mistakes by the other team" narrative, we could have a compelling story. However, I just don't see that. It's too obvious. Whenever something is obvious, swing the other way. I like the Patriots here by a mile.

Texans at Ravens (Bal by 9): Here it is. Our sleepy bye team, combined with the team that no one is really giving a shot to win. If you look at all the games, the Texans are probably the eight most popular pick. People are making legitimate cases on both sides of the San Fran/New Orleans and Green Bay / New York games. New England is favored, and Tim Tebow has Tebow magic, so they're probably closer to fifty fifty picks. But really noone is picking the Texans. And so I will. Second games between teams are generally closer, so that's my justification if I need one.

Finally, New York at Green Bay (GB by 9). It's a little too obvious for New York to pull an upset here, and so I will swing for Green Bay to win handily.

A Weird Note I Just Noticed: 5/8 of the teams have two word place names (Green Bay, New York, etc). That's 62.5%. Only 10 of the 32 teams have two word place names (31.2%). I don't know what that means, but it's interesting. Or perhaps just dumb. The only game that pits the two against each other is New England/Denver.

NFL: Wildcard Weekend

I rested my starters the last two weeks. Sorry. That's life.

Anyway, let's look at the playoff matchups.

My playoff picking rules:

1. Momentum Matters.
2. One team is overhyped, one team is underhyped.
3. When in doubt, take the home team. But pick at least one road team.
4. Destiny Exists.
5. One team is kryptonite.

These have served me well the last two years, as I have gone 0-8 in the wildcard round. I'm feeling it this year though, so let's get to the picks.

The Coin Flip Games:

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (Hou by 3)
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (NYG by 3)

A 50/50 bet either way. I wouldn't put money on these games. None of the teams qualify for overhype/underhype; the two teams with positive momentum are playing each other; the two teams with negative momentum are playing each other; and it's too early to identify a kryptonite.

I listened to Aaron Schatz the other day and he said that Atlanta is the most consistent team in the league - you know what you're getting. But New York must be the most inconsistent team (well, maybe the most inconsistent team not named Baltimore). So either good New York (smoked Dallas last week) or bad New York (lost to Washington the week before) shows up. I don't think Atlanta hangs, and I think we see good New York here. I like the Giants +3.

As far as Cincy/Houston, it's a game of two rookie quarterbacks. Anything could happen. And so we refer to rule 3 - when in doubt, take the home team. Houston +3.


The Predicted Blowouts

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (NO by 11)

I'm jumping all over this one and taking Detroit to cover the spread and win the game outright. Fanboy, who cares. Here are the relevant facts:

• Detroit outgained New Orleans four weeks ago, not accounting for penalty yards.


• Detroit was missing three or four key defensive players four weeks ago, and still held New Orleans to it's lowest home point total.


• Matt Stafford was at the very end of his funk four weeks ago, and is now playing out of his mind.


• New Orleans is definitely the most overhyped team coming into round 1. Remember when they blew that stinker to St Louis? This is not the second coming of Touchdown Jesus.

I'm taking Detroit. I'm so confident that I emailed Bill Simmons and told him he was messing with a "Nobody believes in us" team because he was podcasting about whether the weather in San Francisco would mess with New Orleans.

And yes, I may have just doomed my team.

Steelers at Broncos (PIT by 9)

I'm flip flopping on this game. I already have one road team winning, so I don't need to take Pittsburgh. Ultimately, I'm going to take Pittsburgh, unfortunately, and here's why - I can't possibly go 0-4 3 years in a row. But now, if I do, I will have missed on two coin flip games (shrug), on my home team winning, and on Tebow. That' seems defensible for next year.

Go Lions!

NFL Week 15

With the latest Tebow heroics, the Lions have a shot at a playoff game. They have no shot once they're in the playoffs though... Here are the teams that Detroit could potentially face:

Green Bay (Stompgate, part 3)
New Orleans (Who embarassed us on National TV)
San Fran (Handshake Gate redux)
Dallas (remember, the team we pissed off by coming back from 17 points down, or something)
Atlanta (the team that accused us of making fun of their wussy quarterback)

Each one of those teams will relish knocking us out of the playoffs in their stadium.

On to the picks.

week 14 correct picks: Houston, Minnesota, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, San Diego,
week 14 incorrect picks: Pittsburgh, Jets, New England, Denver, San Fran, Green Bay, Dallas, Seattle
week 14: 8-8

overall: 101-96-10

week 15 picks:
Jacksonville vs Atlanta (ATL by 12): Jacksonville gets no respect! 41 points last week, a sneaky good defense, and a suddenly beastly MJD? And ATL doesn't really blow out teams, and they play down to their opponent, and I'll take the Jags here.
Cowboys vs Bucs (Dal by 7): Yikes. This will be a goodbye game for Raheem Morris once Dallas takes out their Sunday Night frustration and beats em by 20.
Dolphins vs Bills (Mia by 2): I'm going to take Buffalo here. Home dog playing a team that just fired their head coach.
Seahawks vs Bears (Chi by 4): I will take back every mean thing I said about you Pete Carroll if you can beat the Bears this week. I'll take Seattle and maybe actually watch this game.
Titans vs Colts (Ten by 7): Can't pick the Colts.
Packers at Chiefs (GB by 14): Green Bay dismantles inferior teams. I turned off the Oakland game last week because it was boring. This will be the same.
Bengals at Rams (Cin by 7): I hadn't even seen the line before I was typing "take Cincy."
Saints vs Vikings (NO by 7): I think New Orleans is going to win. I think we're on the road to a rematch of the first game of the season - New Orleans and Green Bay. Won't get any better than that.
Redskins vs Giants (NYG by 7): My secret hope? That Dallas and New York lose out, and Philadelphia somehow gets the NFC East title. I don't think it happens, but it would be fun. New York should win this game.
Panthers vs Texans (Hou by 7): The king of the back door cover may rear his head this week. I'll take Carolina.
Lions vs Raiders (Det by 2): Is McFadden still out? Probably not, since he's already cost me two fantasy leagues. I was going to hedge here, but Carson Palmer is TERRIBLE. The Lions should win. They better win.
Patriots vs Broncos (NE by 7): Here's the thing: Tebow can score a few. He put up 35 on Minnesota, right? And NE has a pretty bad secondary, right? And ultimately, if the game is within 7 at the end, Tebow is going to win, right? I'm gonna take Tebow as my upset.
Jets vs Eagles (Phi by 3): Jets are in their infuriating end of the season run, and Philadelphia just won a game they weren't supposed to. I'll take the Jets here.
Browns vs Cardinals (Ari by 7): Thats a high line for a team that won it's last two by an average of 1.5. I'll take Cleveland to keep it close.
Ravens at Chargers (Bal by 1): A curiously low line. I think Baltimore wants to win and stay in the drivers seat for their division, and I'm also thinking we're one monster loss away from the end of the Norv Turner Era. I'll take Baltimore.
Steelers at 49ers (SF by 3): Oh god. Pittsburgh wins this game and suddenly San Fran will be the 3 seed... Playing the 6 seed in round one... Are you ready to see the handshake 4000 times?

Fantasy:
I just missed the playoffs in both Go Lions and CRISTAball. Ultimately, McFadden being out and not having a solid QB cost me CRISTAball, and Go Lions was lost because Dave couldn't beat Crazy Keith in the last week. That hurts, Dave.

I'm in the playoffs in the Emerald City Eight, and have a couple of dilemmas. Here are my four running backs:

Rashard Mendenhall (playing San Fran, 1st against run)
Chris Johnson (Playing Indy, 30th against run)
MJD (playing Atl, 6th against run)
AP (playing NO, 20th against run, and coming back from injury).

My three receivers:
Vincent Jackson
Marques Colston
Julio Jones

Pick 3 from the first and 2 from the second...

(oh, and I'm playing Gonzalez over Gates this week).

NFL Quick Picks

quickly now:

week 13 correct: Seattle, Titans, Chiefs (Upset), Miami, Denver, Pittsburgh, Jets (lock), Texans, Baltimore, San Fran, New Orleans, San Diego

Week 13 incorrect: New England, Tampa, Green Bay, Dallas,

Week 13: 12-4

overall: 93-88-10

I'll take a hit for the Pittsburgh game; I don't know what I would have taken so it's a loss.

I like:

Texans - 3: TJ Yates... not bad!

Detroit -10: Don't think Detroit blows em out, but still get the win.

Saints +4: Not buying Ten anymore.

Eagles -3: I'm selling Miami, as they are going really high right now.

Jets -11: Don't think Sanchez has it in him to blow them out.

Patriots +9: I'll lock this guy down!

Falcons +3: As many touchdowns as will be in this game, it won't come down to three points, and I think that favors Atl.

Jacksonville -3: Dumb game, dumb teams. Take the Jags as an upset.

Ravens -17: Uh, why would I pick the team that has a history of playing down to their opponents to win by 17?

Denver +4: Tebow!

SF +5: That's basically free money, right? (I'm not taking a page out of Bill Simmons book and trying to curse San Fran, trust me I'm not!).

GB -13: I think they win here, but it's not going to be a blowout. This is probably the trickiest game for GB - two weeks in a row of games they could have lost, followed by a game they should win... Something smells funny.

SD +7: I think Buffalo might be done. And San Diego is trying for that patented "just when you thought we were out, Oakland and Denver lose this weekend and we are suddenly only one game back..."

Dal +3: No idea why. Home team I guess.

Seahawks -10: Don't think Seattle has a blowout in them.

Week 13 Picks

Week 11 Record: 5-9

Week 12 Record: 7-3-5 (I meant to take New Orleans).

Overall Record: 81-84-10

Week 13 Picks:
Eagles at Seahawks (Phi by 3): Qwest over Young. (That means I pick Seattle).
Titans at Bills (Buf by 3): I'm taking Ten here, because they have something to play for.
Chiefs at Bears (Chi by 7): I can't pick Hanie to win by 7! I'll take the Chiefs as an upset.
Raiders at Dolphins (Mia by 3): Miami is frisky, and I'll take them here. Oakland is about due for a loss.
Broncos at Vikings (Min by 1): How can you pick against Tebow right now? Especially without AP?
Colts at Patriots (NE by 21): When does Brady get pulled? Second quarter, right? That should be enough to get 24 points, which should cover the line.
Bengals at Steelers (Pit by 7)
Panthers at Buccaneers (TB by 3): Tampa, I would hope. I think. I dont know.
Jets at Redskins (NYJ by 3): I will take the Jets as a lock. Don't look now, but we're headed for another 6th seed for the Jets, who will then win two games and get blown out in an AFC championship.
Falcons at Texans (ATL by 3): Go TJ Yates! I'll pick Houston - the home dog.
Ravens at Browns (Bal by 7): Someone said this on a podcast the other day: it's not a trap game when it's every other game. I'll take Baltimore.
Packers at Giants (GB by 7): Intrigueing to look at the Giants. But I hear they have some injuries, so I'll take the Packers. But the Giants have a tendency to win games you don't expect.
Cowboys at Cardinals (Dal by 5): Dallas? I guess?
Rams at 49ers (SF by 14): I'm never picking the Rams again.
Lions at Saints (NO by 9): Big game for the Lions. They need to go 3-2 to make the playoffs. Minnesota is probably a win, SD certainly looks doable. So we need to either pick up a game here, at Oakland, or at Green Bay (week 17). If New York could pull off an upset this week, then Detroit probably takes week 17. I dont think Detroit wins this week, but I think we might still limp into the playoffs.
Chargers at Jaguars (SD by 3): Wow, SD has quit, hasn't they? But Del Rio got fired, so SD will win this one.

Fantasy Records:
Emerald City Eight: 7-5 for 3rd place. Should make the playoffs (Which I guess are in week 15 in this league?

Cristaball: 6-4 for 4th place in my division, currently. I need a win and two people to lose, and I might still not make it based on the tiebreakers. I think the playoffs start week 14 and are two weeks a round? What a weird league.

Go Lions: 7-5 for third place. I have a rough game this week, but I'm also hopeful 4th place will lose to Dave. I seem to be in good position for the playoffs, which are week 15.

Week 12 quick picks

Thanksgiving blah busy blah here are the picks blah blah oh god the quick picks:

I took Detroit, Dallas, Baltimore. 1-2 so far.

Falcons +10

Bengals +7

Ten +3

Indy -4

Rams +3

Bills -10 (upset)

Texans +7 (lock)

Raiders +3

Seahawks +3

Eagles -4

Broncos -6

Chiefs -11