New Years Resolutions

Somebody told me they don't believe in New Years Resolutions today, because they are concerned about being saddled with unnecessary guilt.

I believe a New Year is an opportunity to set the tone for the next year. It's not about saying "I will lose 10 pounds." It's about saying "This year, I want to be a better person." "This year, I'm going to focus on being holistic."

It's not about specific goals, but about ideas.

So in that vein, here are my specific goals for the year. I'm intentionally aiming high.

1. Lose 50 pounds.

2. Rewrite Ashram.

3. Complete a new book/project.

4. Take a ferry.

5. Go to an NFL game in person.

6. Beat my record of blog posts (109).

7. Complete my Space Marine and Lizardmen armies.

8. Win a tournament with one of those armies.

9. Get 3 Stars on all Angry Bird levels.

10. Surprise my wife with flowers at least 1/2 dozen times.

11. Visit the Space Needle.
12. Run a 5k.

13. Get less holes in my socks.

14. Pay off our PT Cruiser.

15. Be published on a website (not blog).

16. Triple my monthly blog visits.

17. Create a 5 year plan for my life.

18. Move into a new apartment/space.

19. Engage better at work.

20. Rewrite the instruction manual at work.

21. Create a home budget.

22. Get a desktop computer.

23. Win a fantasy football league.

24. Improve my NFL picks.

25. Listen to more sermons.

26. Get internet for my home.

27. Try a new restaurant every other month.

28. Create a list of movies/books that I own.

29. Create a list of movies/books that I want to own.

30. Create a list of movies/books that I've seen/read.

31. Own all the Animorphs books.

32. Create 2 short films.

33. Write 3 sermons/devotionals (that aren't for anything specific).

34. Get Ashram printed/published (self publish if necessary).

35. Own a sportcoat.

That's good enough. We'll start there!

NFL: Crystallizing the Playoff Picture

So, the AFC is locked in, and we're just finagling positions. The NFC has two spots up for grabs, and some finagling of positions. I'm not going to write much here, because in a week what I write will be obsolete. Might as well wait and see.

I'm going to review my predictions from the preseason now. Hopefully this doesn't hurt too much.

Correctly predicted that Dallas and San Diego were overhyped (and Green Bay and New York Jets are close to being overhyped).

Correctly predicted that Arizona would drop a ton, but also incorrectly theorized Pittsburgh would.

None of my surprise playoff teams made it in (Carolina, Houston, Cleveland).

Dead right about Seattle / Denver. Nothing new in their fronts.

Was wrong about worst team. Tampa turned out to be a good crappy team and Buffalo showed some spunk.

Ryan Matthews was a bust in San Diego. Glad I didn't draft him. Suh was a marvel though.

I did predict Detroit would challenge third place in the division.

My quarterback analysis wasn't bad. Flacco probably didn't belong in the top 6.

Cleveland wasn't bad down the stretch, but didn't come close to 9-7.

I picked 6/12 correct playoff teams. That's really not that good.

Let's just move on to some slightly better picks.

Week 16 in Review:

Correct Picks: Steelers, Patriots, Bears, Ravens, Rams, Colts, Packers, Buccaneers, Saints

Incorrect Picks: Cowboys, Titans (upset), Dolphins, Jaguars, Chargers (lock), Texans, Eagles

Week: 9-7

Overall: 140-98

Lock: 11-5

Upset: 5-10

Week 17 Picks:

Panthers at Falcons: A strange must-win game for the Falcons, and not a must-lose game for Carolina. I'd like to think Carolina would rise up and try to have a say in the division, but they just don't have the talent to compete with Atlanta. So Atlanta wins.

Steelers at Browns: Not a gimme game for the Steelers. The Browns have been playing to the level of their opponents - crappy against crappy teams, good against good teams. I'll take Cleveland as an upset.

Viking at Lions: I wasn't going to pick the Lions this week, but the Vikings play the weird Tuesday game, so they'll be done. I'll take the Lions. Although, I don't like the thought of Brett Favre having his final game against Detroit.

Raiders at Chiefs: As the Chiefs, I may actually want to lose this game and get the 4th seed. Because in round 2, I'd much rather play New England than Pittsburgh (if I'm a running team anyway). I think Oakland wins because Kansas City isn't worried.

Dolphins at Patriots: Patriots do play hard in these games, and the Dolphins are really not a good team. I think the Patriots will win, because Miami can't come back when Tom Brady buries them by 30 points in the first quarter.

Buccaneers at Saints: Probably a meaningless game for New Orleans, but a must-win for Tampa. So I'll take Tampa. (Although can you imagine the craziness if New Orleans somehow snuck into the #1 seed? That would be a blindside for the ages.)

Bills at Jets: The Bills, as they won't let Mark Sanchez get within ten feet (heh) of the field.

Bengals at Ravens: Baltimore has the potential to win their division, but they did play their worst game of the season against Cincinnati. Unfortunately, passionate revenge and Joe Flacco don't really go in the same sentence. So, in a stunning move, I'm taking the Bengals as a second Upset (mostly because for some reason I've only picked 15 upsets to this point).

Chargers at Broncos: Who cares! Chargers will beat up on Tebow to take out their frustrations.

Bears at Packers: Green Bay is sort of maddeningly inconsistent. Have they posted two or three good games in a row? Chicago is at least consistent (they win games but look like they should lose). I guess I'll take Green Bay.

Titans at Colts: Don't bet against the Colts, at least until the playoffs.

Cowboys at Eagles: Meaningless! Vick plays a quarter, and then Kevin Kolb picks apart the Cowboys secondary. I think this is a better game for Kolb to play in anyway, as Dallas does have a pretty bad defense.

Cardinals at 49ers: Uglyrama. Take the home team, don't watch.

Giants at Redskins: The Redskins are the Vikings of the second half of the season - a crappy team dominating headlines. I subscribe to the notion that the Giants have folded, so I will pick Rex Grossman. If I ever have to type that sentence again, you know there is a gun to my head.

Jaguars at Texans: I haven't heard, but if Jones-Drew is playing I'll take the Jaguars. Actually, I'll just take the Jaguars no matter what.

Rams at Seahawks: And it comes to this. The 7-8 Rams at the 6-9 Seahawks for supremacy of the NFC West and the right to be trounced by New Orleans. I think I'm going to take the Seahawks. Two reasons, neither having to do with football (because these teams don't really play football). Number one - After Seattle makes it as 7-9 team, there is bound to be an outcry to reseed the playoffs. Number two - I could potentially go to the New Orleans game and get drunk and make fun of Seattle fans. So Seattle is my Lock.

Predicted Seedings:

AFC (In Order): New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Baltimore, New York

NFC (In Order): Atlanta, Chicago, Philadelphia, Seattle, New Orleans, Green Bay

2010: Year in Review

2010 was a good year. A decent start to a decade. Let's look back on it:

I'm anticipating 108 blog posts on the year. That's nearly double the year before (only 62 posts). That's not really that great, seeing as I didn't really accomplish much else in writing.

January: Slow month. I spent the month predicting the NFL playoffs (6-5 total) and also making Lost predictions.

February: Lost Season 6 starts.

March: I unsuccessfully start participating in 750words.com, and write some more Lost Reviews.
April: I have vacation, and it's my wife 1st Birthday since we've been married. Red Wings burn out in the second round.

May: The Lost Series Finale destroys my soul.
June: First time I was Best Man in a wedding. I also wrote a series on quantum physics that didn't go far.

July: Inception rocks my world. I create a short film for a film contest and then promptly forgot about it.

August: I start a few new writing ideas. I do my first guest post and my first blog giveaway. I also turn 24.

September: The NFL Starts, and I start making picks.

October: The immensely popular NFL Bias Rankings make their first appearance.

November: Second married Thanksgiving. I enjoy it even though the turkey doesn't come out as good as last year.

December: Christmas was a great time. I really enjoyed it. It was a good blend of intimate and public, small and large.

So that's the year in review. Later this week tune in for an NFL column and New Years Resolutions.

Coolest News I've Heard All Week

Scholastic is going to relaunch Animorphs.

That's seriously cool, for my nerdy self. I used to own them all, and have recently decided to try to recollect them. The covers look pretty sweet:

Count me as interested.

Horror Movie Plots

I've said in the past that many horror movies are cliched and uninspired. So check out this "horror movie" synopsis:

Two kids are dragged underwater in a remote third world country and killed, and no one manages to catch a glimpse. After the locals rise up to defend their children, no more attacks happen...

...for nine years. Several more attacks happen, and one villager manages to catch a confusing glimpse of the creature. To help fend off the attacks, the locals call for help, and a British biologist shows up to try to identify and defeat the creature. After ruling out all manner of possibilities for the creature (crocodiles, sharks, etc) the Biologist sees a creature that shouldn't be there - or at least shouldn't be that size.

The Biologist (our protagonist) decides to set a trap for the creature. Theorizing that the creature (s) has been feeding off the half burned corpse that the locals leave in riverside funeral pyres, he creates a fake funeral pyre, and actually manages to catch the creature.

The creature - which has grown to 5 times it's normal size because of the abundance of human flesh- is...

A giant, six foot long, 160 pound, catfish, of course. Oh, and the final shot? There's a whole community of giant man eating catfish (for the sequel).

That's a crappy movie. Why? Because it hits every cliche in the book. Biologist Expert? Check. Glimpse of the monster? Check. Small child eaten to raise sympathy? Check. Even the final trap sounds likes a cheap jaws ripoff. Also, doesn't a man-eating catfish sort of sound stupid?

Good thing then that it's not a movie. This whole story is true - including the entire community of killer catfish. It happened in Nepal, on the Kali river. (And It Could Happen To You!)

I've been on a river where they have these types of funeral pyres. The entire time I was worried about seeing a dead body. Turns out I should have been worried about being eaten by a giant catfish.

Merry Christmas

"I Celebrate The Day"

by Relient K

And with this Christmas wish is missed
The point I could convey
If only I could find the words to say to let You know how much You've touched my life
Because here is where You're finding me, in the exact same place as New Year's eve
And from a lack of my persistency
We're less than half as close as I want to be

And the first time
That You opened Your eyes did You realize that You would be my Savior
And the first breath that left Your lips
Did You know that it would change this world forever

And so this Christmas I'll compare the things I felt in prior years
To what this midnight made so clear
That You have come to meet me here

To look back and think that
This baby would one day save me
In the hope that what You did
That you were born so I might live
To look back and think that
This baby would one day save me

And I, I celebrate the day
That You were born to die
So I could one day pray for You to save my life

The Holidays

Merry Christmas (Eve)!

I hope you enjoy the holidays and spend time with the ones you love. I figured I'd share a few things...

My Favorite Memory: My mom once tried to convince me that I should open one of my Christmas presents early, because she was so excited to see me open it.

Random Christmas Fact: I had my first live Christmas tree last year.

My Favorite Christmas Gift I've Received: 24 Christmas's so far. I think my favorite gift was still when I was a kid (first or second grade I think). I received the Jurassic Park Tyrannosaur Rex (with realistic dinosaur skin!):

My Favorite Christmas Movie: What was the one with Arnold Schwarzenegger? Jingle All the Way! That was always an absurd favorite. Or catching a Home Alone on TV.

Another Random Christmas Fact: I just got rid of last years live tree two weeks ago.

My Favorite Christmas Tradition: Waking up super early, and making (probably horrible) coffee for my parents. That was always their condition - we could wake them up super early, but there had better be some coffee ready.

Dumbest Thing I've Given (or Tried to Give): Well, I tried to give my alcoholic great grandfather a pack of beer once. Turns out seven year olds aren't allowed to buy beer.

My Favorite Christmas Song: I do enjoy Feliz Navidad, only because it may be the most annoying song in the history of the world, and thus I have come to enjoy it. But alas, that is not my favorite. I'll post my favorite song tomorrow, with lyrics. Until then, have a Merry Christmas!

What about You?

NFL: Quick 16

First a Review:

Correct: Chargers, Bengals (upset), Cowboys, Colts, Chiefs, Carolina, Falcons (lock), Oakland, Patriots, Bears.

Incorrect: Texans, Bills, Eagles, Lions, Ravens, Jets.

Week 15: 10-6

Overall: 131-91

Lock: 11-4

Upset: 5-9

Then the Week 16 Quick Picks:

Steelers, Cowboys, Patriots, Bears, Ravens, Titans (upset), Rams, Dolphins, Jaguars, Chargers (lock), Texans, Colts, Packers, Buccaneers, Eagles, Saints.

Writing Tip: Kill Your Little Darlings

I can't figure out who said this, because sometimes the internet is too awesome for it's own good... It could have been Anne Lamotte, William Faulkner, Sir Arthur Couch, or Jessica Mitford. Anyway, the point is:

"Kill your darlings."

When we're writing, we sometimes get attached to something. A particular phrasing or joke, or even the style of an entire composition. If we become too attached, and cannot look at something with a critical eye, we end up writing something that in the end only we can appreciate.

I was reminded of this today when receiving some criticism of my book "Ashram," a story of my trip to Varanasi, India. As you may recall, I finished a first (and a second draft) of Ashram probably two years ago. I shopped it around some publishers and agents, but never received too much interest. Since then, I've given it out to individuals to ask what they think, but made few changes to it.

One consistent criticism I have received (and truthfully, also perceived) is that the book is repetitious. It follows a consistent pattern or style. It's a story from India, followed by a life lesson.

I've known since the second draft a far better introduction for the book. But that would mean I would have to kill the pattern and style of the book and rewrite the whole thing, or at least huge chunks. And because I think that pattern really works for a chapter or two, I've struggled to do what is necessary.

But I think I'm going to try. I'm going to kill my darlings.

For those of you that are in any way familiar with my novel, here's what I'm going to do, because I'm a visual thinker. Good luck interpreting!

Mashup: Disneyworld and Abortion

Perhaps you've heard of Walt Disney? Well, of course you've heard of him. You've probably even heard about Disney World or Disney Land, the very successful theme parks. You may have heard some crazy things about these places and the lengths they go to be the best - they sort trash by hand; they retouch the paint every night; they even have a character who dresses up like a vine and hides around the park in plain sight.

Cool or crazy, right?

Well, one story I've heard that stuck with me is how Walt Disney designed the park. Walt toured theme parks around the world, trying to see what worked and what didn't work.

Oh, and he also counted how far people would walk. Specifically, how far they would walk to find a trash can. On average, Walt figured each person would walk 27 feet to throw away a piece of garbage. Much longer than 27 feet and an average person would simply drop the piece of trash.

Flash forward to Disney World / Land today. Trash cans are situated so that you are never more than 27 feet from a trash can.

Walt wanted a park that was clean and fresh. Instead of posting a sign "Please don't litter" which can be interpreted as insulting or demeaning, Walt simply removed the barrier. He made it easier to get rid of the trash.

I think this is one way that church can grow. Not just in the literal put-a-trash-can-everywhere meaning, but in a metaphorical one.

How can we as a church remove barriers, rather than post prohibitions?

Let's look at one issue that most churches abhor - abortion. I'm pretty sure most churches believe abortion should be illegal. I don't say that churches are "against" abortion because I'm pretty sure that everyone on all sides agrees that in a perfect world, they'd be against abortion.

But how has the church responded to abortion? It seems like there is a lot of guilt and anger directed at those who have done it or are thinking of it; it seems like a giant blinking neon "DON'T DO IT."

But what if the church found ways to stop posting prohibitions and start removing barriers?

Instead of ostracizing teenage moms, taking them in?

Instead of preaching about the immorality of premarital sex, having an open conversation about the beauty of a family?

Instead of basing political decisions on who vows the most to overturn Roe v Wade, vote for whoever shows the most compassion?

These are just the ideas on the top of my head. I think it's something to consider. And I'm not just talking about abortion here - it was a convenient example. How can we as a church remove barriers instead of just posting prohibitions? How do we get rid of our "No Trespassing" signs and tear down our fences?

NFL Column: Goodbye Brett Favre

Well, it's over. 297.

Even after it became curiously cool to not like Brett Favre, there was a thrill in seeing him every week suit up. Even through the wincing pain and crazy interceptions, you couldn't argue with that.

And now it's over. Some will say good riddance; some will just say good bye.

I, for one, am sad to see Brett go. It's hard to remember if it was him or Barry Sanders that I first knew about in the NFL. My favorite play I remember seeing happened in some regular season Green Bay game, and I couldn't find the youtube link. It was a pitch play to some unnamed Green Bay Running back, and all I remember is Brett Favre leading the way down the field making three downfield blocks. It looked like something out of a college play book, and was pretty tremendous.

I have two regrets for Brett... He should have finished in Green Bay. And, barring that, he should have stayed home this year. I thought that he was milking the injuries and attention this offseason when he didn't come right back... but clearly there was something wrong there. Clearly he reached that line where he wasn't the same. And it was sad to see this season.

Anyway, good bye Brett Favre.

Seriously, good bye. Don't try to come back.

Week 14 Review:

I correctly predicted these winners: Colts, Giants, Steelers, Bucs, Falcons, Jaguars, Saints, 49ers (upset), Patriots, Eagles, and Ravens (lock).

I did not predict these winners: Bills, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, and Chargers.

Week: 11-5

Overall: 121-85

Lock: 10-4

Upset: 4-9

Week 15 Picks:

In honor of the corrupt and laughable NCAA, let's name bowl games this week!

49ers at Chargers: The Miraculously-Only-One-Game-Behind Bowl! It's our first West/West clash! Both these teams have slim playoff chances, but a loss effectively removes them from contention. I'll take the Chargers on homefield.

Browns at Bengals: The Formerly-Edge-Of-Elite-Quarterback Bowl! Bengals are bound to win one eventually, so I guess I'll take them in a mini upset.

Redskins at Cowboys: The Desperate-Fanbase Bowl! Seriously, are there any two fanbases who desperately believe they should always be winning but never are more than Dallas and Washington? At least Detroit fans know they're terrible. I'll take the Cowboys at home.

Texans at Titans: The Newly-Eliminated-From-Playoff-Contention Bowl! Saw this on my Milk Carton this morning: "Missing: Randy Moss. Was once a great Fantasy Receiver. Has not been seen in weeks; call Jeff Fisher if you have seen him." Um, Texans I guess.

Jaguars at Colts: The Seriously? Jacksonville? Bowl! Seriously? Jacksonville? I pick the Colts.

Chiefs at Rams: The Division-Leaders-By-A-Miracle Bowl! Both these teams must win to maintain their lead in their dangerous neck and neck divisions... Oh, sorry. I forgot these guys play in the West divisions. Take the Chiefs.

Bills at Dolphins: The Endangered-Species Bowl! Who knows. I hate Miami. I used to feel pity for Buffalo. Just take the home team and pray this game isn't on TV.

Eagles at Giants: The Finally-Someone-To-Tackle-Vick-And-Hurt-Him Bowl presented by PETA! Sorry, had to go there. But here's how good the Giants are at knocking out quarterbacks - they knocked Brett Favre out before the game even started... So I'll take the Giants.

Lions at Buccaneers: The 27-Is-Our-Lucky-Number Bowl! Unfortunately, the Buccaneers can beat crappy teams. Detroit is the epitome of crappy teams. Sidenote 1: through 15 weeks, I have misspelled the Buccaneers every time I tried. Even though my high school team was also the Bucs. Sidenote 2: Blogspot insists that 'Sidenote' is spelled incorrectly and wishes me to change it to 'Si denote.'

Cardinals at Panthers: The Win-By-Punt Bowl! If the defenses weren't so inept, I would have called this the "Win-By-Safety Bowl." Maybe Carolina can eke out a win here.

Saints at Ravens: The It's-Way-Hard-To-Think-Of-Clever-Names-When-Both-Teams-Don't-Suck Bowl! Although the Ravens may suck. They win, but have they impressed you yet? I'll take the Saints.

Falcons at Seahawks: The Bird Bowl! My greatest regret is moving away from Bird Bowl picking earlier this year. Even though Bird Bowling always sucked at making picks. This week, I don't care. I'm sticking with the Bird Bowling and picking Falcons. A falcon could totally beat up a seahawk, right? A seahawk is just a dumb name for a seagull, isn't it? Falcons are the Lock.

Broncos at Raiders: The Tim-Tebow-Introduction Bowl! Because you know that Tebow is coming in. You just don't know when. He's like a shark. You'll never know. I'll take Oakland.

Jets at Steelers: The Arrogant-Schmuck Bowl! Could you assemble a team of worst people? Rex Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Mark Sanchez, LDT, and the entirety of the Jets/Steelers organizations? Jets have been badly exposed the past two weeks, and that continues here.

Packers at Patriots: The Funny-Feeling Bowl! Because I have a funny feeling that after we spent the last three weeks comparing the Patriots to the 2007 we're due for a letdown. So I'll take the Packers.

Bears at Vikings: The Who-Cares-Now Bowl! Minnesota went from being the land of drama to the land of snoozes. Bears will probably win.

NFL Column: Playoffs Pictures Presented

Thoughts

I watched a quarter and a half of football this weekend. And you know what? I appreciated it a lot more. Besides having more time to spend on other things, I didn't spend my weekend zoning out watching a crappy Seattle game. I watched a couple of good quarters of Baltimore - Pittsburgh.

I think that's going to be a good new rule for me. If the game on sucks, I'm just not going to watch it. Why spend 6-8 hours in front of the TV on Sunday watching Pete Carroll acting like he has a soul?

That's my random NFL thought for the week. On to the rest of the column!

Week 13 Review

I correctly predicted that the Eagles, Saints, Packers, Chiefs, Vikings, Giants, Rams, Seahawks, Falcons and Patriots (lock) would all win. I also incorrectly predicted that the Bears (upset), Jaguars, Browns, Raiders, Cowboys, and Steelers would lose. In one note of pride, I did predict that the final score of the Ravens / Steelers game would be 13-10. It was close to being my lock.

Week Record: 9-6

Overall: 110-80

Lock: 9-4

Upset: 3-9

I know my records don't add up, but I'm not sure why. I'm certainly not going back to try to add it all up. This is my best guess at what my records are.

Week 14 Picks

A week of spoiler games! Lots of chances to sort out the playoffs, for crappy teams to rise up and have an impact on the postseason! By my count, 48 teams could be eliminated with a loss this week. Let's get right to it.

Colts at Titans - Whoever loses this game is effectively out of the playoff race. I have no idea what to expect here... If Manning posts another game like that last one, how can Indy win? But what are the chances that he does? And the Titans have been terrible since 'winning' Randy Moss. I'll take the Colts, I guess.

Browns at Bills - Two teams that play to their competition's level, which means that this should be a horrible game, right? I think I'll take Cleveland; Peyton Hillis should have a good game.

Packers at Lions - First playoff spoiler alert! If the Pack doesn't win, they have a hard road to get to the playoffs, because they probably wouldn't catch Chicago. Ultimately, good teams win these games and bad teams lose them. I'll take Green bay.

Giants at Vikings - Another potential spoiler. Giants need to win. And I think they will; their pass rush should knock Favre out on the first drive.

Bengals at Steelers - Let down game for Pittsburgh? Another spoiler game? If Pittsburgh loses this, but Baltimore wins (likely), then Pittsburgh's statement game last week means nothing. Should be a smashmouth game either way, and I like Pittsburgh's chances.

Buccaneers at Redskins - Crappy good team takes on good crappy team? Note: this is potentially a spoiler game, but probably not. Tampa won't make it to the playoffs, but if they lose this one, it's definitely goodbye for that pipe dream. I'll take the Bucs.

Falcons at Panthers - Not a spoiler game, because the Falcons are going to the playoffs regardless. But Carolina can salvage a little bit of pride by giving New Orleans a shot at the 1 seed if the Panthers were to win here. I'm going to say that probably won't happen. Atlanta.

Raiders at Jaguars - Saw what I wrote about Indy/Tennessee above? Probably the same here. The loser doesn't get a playoff berth. I think Oakland has the letdown game here, and Jaguars hang on to their division lead.

Rams at Saints - Tough road for Sam Bradford. To get into the playoffs, he'll need to beat the reigning Superbowl champions, who certainly aren't shoo-in's for the playoffs themselves. The Saints have started to look like they have some of that Superbowl Mojo back, so I'll stick with them.

Seahawks at 49ers - So far, I've picked all the favorites. Time to switch up things, because I'll take the 49ers as my upset. Seattle can't play on the road, we all know this to be true.

Patriots at Bears - How many more teams must the Patriots beat to prove they're the best? I find it absurd that they're listed 2nd in the ESPN Power rankings. Patriots by a mile in this game.

Dolphins at Jets - Jets can beat teams that aren't any good, so they should win this one.

Broncos at Cardinals - Cardinals can't score touchdowns! You have to pick Denver in this game, right? They can at least score.

Chiefs at Chargers - This isn't as exciting a game, because San Diego might have blown their chance to make it to the playoffs last week. If SD wins this, they're still a game behind. I'm jumping off the SD bandwagon - past performance is no indication of future success. San Diego follows their absurd 48 game December/January win streak by an 0-2 December streak this year.

Eagles at Cowboys - Cowboys can save themselves some respect by trying to knock the Eagles out of the playoff race. Don't think they'll succeed. Eagles.

Ravens at Texans - Here's one thing I'm realizing - exactly what type of offense is Baltimore? They have some great receivers, but Joe Flacco doesn't pile up stats. Their running backs are solid, but not spectacular. They just don't seem to have a personality in the way that New England or Pittsburgh or Indy do. That being said, I'll take Baltimore (as a lock even) because Houston has a terrible pass defense. (also, this is a spoiler game!)

Spoilers: I counted 11 teams that can basically knock other teams out of the playoffs this week. (For your records, I counted Texans, Cowboys, Raiders, Jaguars, Rams, Saints, Colts, Titans, Lions, Vikings, and Redskins). So we have two scenarios that could be interesting. All the favored teams win, and we basically know the playoff picture, eradicating a lot of the bottom feeders. Or (my personal favorite) underdogs all win, and we basically set the playoff picture on hold for a week and make things even more muddled.

Week 14... Are you ready for some football?

NFL: Week 13 Picks

A quick programming note: I'm done with the separate picks/reviews column. Next Wednesday there will be one column - review of week 13, preview of week 14. This must be done, so I feel like I have time to write something else during the week as well. If you don't like it, tough.

The Picks:

Texans at Eagles: This is the relative order of things: Vick > Texans Defense > Rusty Smith. Search your heart; you know this to be true.

Saints at Bengals: Does anyone believe the Bengals are any good? If they fired their coach, I would start to consider them. Stick with the Saints.

Bears at Lions: I'm taking Detroit as my revenge upset. Don't try to talk me out of it.

49ers at Packers: Troy Smith in the snow? Without Frank Gore? Please. Green Bay had so many chances to win last week - if McCarthy threw a challenge flag on any of five separate plays, they probably would have won, and we'd be talking about Green Bay as the best team in the country.

Jaguars at Titans: Flip a coin to see which team shows up. I heard Kerry Collins is playing, so I'll take Tennessee. Question: if Tennessee doesn't win another game this year, do we blame Vince Young or Randy Moss for the season torpedo?

Broncos at Chiefs: Chiefs looked pretty dominant last week. But hey lost very badly to Denver three weeks ago (the finger wagging game!) Plus, let's be honest. The Chiefs looked dominant against ... Seattle. My college flag football team would look good against Seattle, and we were a team of d-bags (even moreso than Cincy!). I'm taking the Chiefs, but I don't feel good about it.

Browns at Dolphins: Who cares. Dolphins.

Bills at Vikings: More who cares. Vikings.

Redskins at Giants: When the Giants win, they look preposterously good (minus last week). When they lose, they look preposterously bad. I think they'll post a good game this week.

Raiders at Chargers: Ah, the Chargers annual late bid for the playoffs. Do you think next year they should play their backups until week 5/6 and then play everyone? That would work right? (I pick SD).

Cowboys at Colts: What if the Colts lose this game? Can you imagine a situation where the Colts don't make it into the playoffs? It's a crazy game with a lot on the line for the Colts, and nothing on the line for Dallas. So, one of two things will happen. Manning will A) be clutch and win on the last drive in some spectacular fashion or B) fall under the pressure and throw a few more picks and lose badly again. I'm not picking against Manning three weeks in a row. It's been a good ride, but I'll go back to safety and take Manning.

Rams at Cardinals: Could the Cardinals go the rest of the season without scoring a touchdown? Believe it. I'll take the Rams. (Although I hope the Cards win so we can see what the worst possible record for a division champ could be).

Panthers at Seahawks: Don't back a crappy team on the road - I'll take Seahawks. See the Cardinals for why I hope Carolina wins though.

Falcons at Buccaneers: I already played an upset so I'll stick with the Falcons.

Steelers at Ravens: I'll take the Ravens. Can I set the Lock of the Week that this game is 13-10? Eh, probably not smart. I'll save the Lock...

Jets at Patriots: ...For this game! Patriots. Lock. I will never forgive you Bill Belichick if you let Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan get a 1 seed. And that is that.

NFL: Week 12 Quick Review

Teams I Predicted to Win That Did In Fact Win: Patriots, Jets, Falcons, Steelers, Browns, Giants (Lock), Texans, Chiefs, Ravens, Chargers

Teams I Predicted to Lose That Did Not In Fact Lose: Saints (upset), Vikings, Dolphins, Bears, Rams

Teams I Predicted to Win That Have Not Played Yet: Cardinals

Week Thus Far: 10-5

Overall: 101-73

Lock: 8-4

Upset: 3-8

Fantasy: Up by 23. All that's left is to not get gouged by Frank Gore

Thanksgiving Time

This is from last year, but still appropriate - 101 (plus a few bonus!)

1. My beautiful wife.
2. Mountain Dew.
3. Jesus (I feel a responsibility to say that these are not in order).
4. A good job.
5. Dave Morgan Haikus.
6. The color blue.
7. Comfortable shoes.
8. Minesweeper.
9. A beautiful apartment.
10. Clean socks.
11. My freaking awesome wife
12. Letter openers that really work.
13. Stand up comedians.
14. Family.
15. Friends across the country.
16. My time in the "man house."
17. Contact lens.
18. Uncertainty of the plural spelling of lens.
19. Coffee.
20. Cool coffee cups.
21. Lost.
22. The Office.
23. An ability to grow facial hair.
24. Naps.
25. Raspberries. The fruit, not the tongue thing.
26. Raspberries. The tongue thing, not the fruit.
27. Kisses.
28. A good pen.
29. A sense of accomplishment.
30. That I don't go to High School anymore.
31. Rewriting stories to make myself look good.
32. A good shave.
33. The letter "A."
34. A nameplate that looks different than everyone elses.
35. Legos.
35. Eggo waffles.
36. Thanksgiving.
37. The Ballance's opening their home to us.
39. God providing in amazing ways as we moved out west.
40. Staple removers.
41. Zombies, in fiction and in real life.
42. The numbers!!! 4 8 15 16 23 42
43. When people write on my facebook.
44. Scratching a good itch.
45. Sleeping in.
46. Any day I don't receive a stupid text message forward.
47. Stanley cup victories for the Detroit Red Wings.
48. A good hockey fight.
49. Youtube clips of Patrick Roy getting humiliated.
50. The grin I get when noone realizes until now that I skipped #38.
51. Remembering serenading my wedding, and Geoff's wedding.
52. Hitting John Lotterhos's car that one time.
53. Crazy Trinidadians going the wrong way in go-karts.
54. Winning free stuff.
55. John Jurries proclaiming my post = win.
56. Jessica Notenbaum yelling at me for not posting.
57. When I beat the Fantasy Guru's predicted score by 60 points.
58. Spring.
59. Flip flops.
60. Bonfires.
61. New groups of friends who haven't heard my jokes 30 times.
62. Friends that don't know I stole a joke from someone else.
63. Moes Burritos.
64. A good yawn.
65. Coffee. Again.
66. Monday Midnight Prayer.
67. Trendy glasses.
68. Small groups.
69. Not using the word "moist."
70. Ipods.
71. My stunning wife.
72. The Sports Guy.
73. Tuesday Morning Quarterback.
74. Sunflower Seeds.
75. Cholula Sauce.
76. Wolfgangs.
77. DVD's.
78. Youth group memories.
79. Power tools.
80. Growing up.
81. Black olives.
82. Digiornios pizza.
83. Scott Adams.
84. An empty inbox.
85. Days off.
86. Presents.
87. Automatic doors that make me feel like a Jedi.
88. Lord of the Rings being better than Star Wars.
89. Surprises.
90. The time I put jolly ranchers in Jamison's shower.
91. The time I drunk wrestled Steve and won.
92. Proposing.
93. Making our wedding our wedding.
94. My groomsmen.
95. Hookahs.
96. My gorgeous wife.
97. That this list is almost over.
98. That 101 is more catchy than 201.
99. That M&M's melt in your mouth, not in your hand.
100. That's what she said.
101. Your name here!

BONUS TIME!!!

102. Cooking Turkey - I really enjoy it!

103. Snow days at the age of 24.
104. Fantasy football being based on luck, not strategy.

105. New cars.

106. Post-it notes.

107. Movie Theaters.

108. Fun board games.

109. A job that is challenging and rewarding.

110. Microsoft Word's "Search and Replace" feature.

111. Detroit Lions playing the part of Turkey every year.

112. The ability to make people laugh.

113. Arrested Development!!! Maybe the funniest show in history?

114. Tuna steaks.

115. Portabella mushrooms.

116. Strategy games.

117. Ordo Ludus.

118. Sabbath Group

119. The Baergens

120. Quelf.

121. New Music.

122. A new laptop!

123. Starcraft. What a great game.

124. Flashbang - an amazing book.

125. Relient K's Christmas albums - making Christmas music bearable.

126. Phone calls from friends.

127. Emails from friends.

128. Pageviews or comments on my blog.

129. My friends Rick and Natalie.

130. A great supervisor at work.

131. Facial hair.

132. The potential of a new house in February.

133. Smartphones. So neat.

134. Angry Birds finally coming to Palm Pre.

135. That one time I got to play a little of Starcraft 2.

136. Having hobbies I enjoy.

137. The Wii my wife gave me for my Birthday.

138. Football season.

139. Haircuts.

140.Eggnog latte's.

141.Sarcasm.

142. Converse All Star Shoes.

143. Funny bumper stickers (on other peoples cars).

144. My coworkers.

145. Secret Santa gift exchanges.

146. A working car heater this winter!

147. New sweaters.

148. Aprons, for cooking.

149. My amazing and thoughtful wife.

150. You!

NFL: Week 12 Picks

Gah. Thursday games are the bane of me. It means I have to have my fantasy team set Wednesday and my picks on Wednesday. Oh well... Here you go.

Patriots at Lions: Brady will shred the Lions. No contest.

Saints at Cowboys: The Cowboys have started playing up to the potential everyone saw in them at the beginning of the season. So pretend it's last year - Saints at Dallas, who would you pick? Probably New Orleans. But the short week means I'm leaning towards taking Dallas as an upset. If I don't see a better candidate by the end of the review, I'll take Dallas. After review, I'm sticking with this pick. The other candidate is SD/Ind, but that isn't really an "upset" pick.

Bengals at Jets: Ugh. Two gross teams, but the Jets will continue to win.

Packers at Falcons: Game of the week maybe? In a close contest, you should probably take the home team. However, have the Falcons really dominated anyone? This should be a good test for them. I'll take ATL but only barely.

Steelers at Bills: Hoo hoo. I foresee Pittsburgh shutting down Buffalo. Then we have to deal with another week of people pretending Pittsburgh is the best in the league.

Panthers at Browns: There are a few stinker games this week, huh? But then a few great ones. I'll take the Browns here.

Jaguars at Giants: Don't back a crappy team on the road. And New York should win the bounce-back game. This is my Lock.

Vikings at Redskins: Will Minnesota pull a Dallas and suddenly start playing for a coach that they care about? I'm going to say "no" for now and take Washington.

Titans at Texans: What happened to Tennessee? Are they falling off the map? Oh wait, what happened to Houston? Are they falling off the map? I'm going to take Houston here; can you trust a guy named Rusty Smith?

Dolphins at Raiders: Take the home team. Whatever you do, don't actually bet on this game.

Chiefs at Seahawks: Or this game. I don't like either team. I'm going to pick against Seattle because I like rooting against them.

Eagles at Bears: Take Michael Vick until he looks mortal.

Rams at Broncos: Rough game to pick. I guess I'll take Kyle Orton.

Buccaneers at Ravens: Ravens should be win this one. Tampa Bay hasn't won against any good teams, I think. Maybe New Orleans.

Chargers at Colts: I'm going to take the Chargers. They always seem to have the Colts number.

49ers at Cardinals: Ugh. What an ugly monday night game. I'll take Cardinals (home team).

NFL: Week 11 Quick Review

Correct Picks: Cowboys, Chiefs, Packers, Jets, Steelers, Ravens, Falcons, Saints (lock), Patriots, Eagles

Incorrect Picks: Bears, Bengals, Redskins, Jaguars (upset), Buccaneers

Still to Play: Broncos and Chargers (I have San Diego)

Week Thus Far: 10-5

Overall Record: 90-68

Upset: 3-7

Lock: 7-4

Fantasy: I got shredded by Peyton and Greg Jennings.

NFL: Week 11 Picks

Bears at Dolphins: Don't back a crappy team on the road. But I've been letting my bias for Chicago play into my picks all year, and that hasn't worked well for me. I'm still taking the Dolphins - but if Chicago wins this week I may need to stop picking against them.

Bengals at Bills: Ugh. I hope this isn't the game they decide to play here in Seattle. Which, by the way, shows the crappiest games each week! If I'm not stuck watching Seattle (who seriously haven't played an exciting game all year - each week they either get blown out or the other team doesn't show up), then I'm stuck watching the dumb Vikings or something. I guess I'll take the Bengals.

Lions at Cowboys: Don't foresee that road streak ending this week. Although, it would be like the Cowboys this season to blow this game by 40 points. I'll still take the Cowboys and dare Detroit to make me wrong.

Redskins at Titans: Both teams come off losses; Tennessee's may have been more devastating as far as playoff hopes go. Now Ten has a very tight race in the AFC South where they could have been in a tie with the Colts. I think on home turf I'll take the Titans. Moss? I predict he gets 5 catches, 40 yards, and a garbage TD. Actually, I hope he does that well.

Cardinals at Chiefs: Um, Chiefs. Cardinals just have no weapons; they get to be next years Carolina Panthers.

Packers at Vikings: Don't let the door hit you on the way out Brett! Because once Rodgers embarasses you (again) I can't imagine you'll stick around much longer. Whether that's your choice, or Childress's, or Zygi's, I don't know. Side note: Isn't Zygi Wilf the coolest owner name in Pro Football?

Texans at Jets: I don't know. I want so badly to pick against the Jets, who are the clearly the worst 7-2 team. But here's the truth - Matt Schaub was in the hospital for a ?bursa? sac. Or something. And if that's the case... Dan Orlovsky. So I'll be safe and pick the Jets.

Raiders at Steelers: Ooh, possible upset pick. But I still don't buy the Raiders. This maybe their toughest game, so if they win on Sunday then I'll start giving them respect. Until then, I'll pick the Steelers.

Ravens at Panthers: Ravens by a mile? Actually, this could be one of those games where the Ravens win 13-3 or something. I'm starting Joe Flacco (as of now, perhaps change my mind by the end of this post) and hoping for the best.

Browns at Jaguars: Two teams that show up against superior teams and suck against inferior teams. I guess I'll take the Browns as my upset as the Jags are still probably celebrating after that crazy Hail Mary.

Falcons at Rams: Don't be a hero. I'll take the Falcons. I like the Rams in this game to keep it close; it's just that the Falcons have the ability to come through in the clutch. Roddy White pushing a guy down can do that for you, I guess.

Seahawks at Saints: La-la-lock! Here's a cool one: this is possibly a preview of the first round of the playoffs. Seahawks are going to win their crappy division (unless San Fran manages to pull it out, which is not entirely impossible) and take the 4th seed. So they're going to play the 5th seed, who will probably have 2-3 more wins on their record. So Seattle will play the fifth seed, which will be either Atlanta/New Orleans or New York/Philadelphia. At this point, I'm thinking it will be New Orleans. So New Orleans will come to Seattle and just flat out blow Pete Carroll out of the water. I'm so excited I'm getting tingles.

Buccaneers at 49ers: San Francisco, taking cards from San Diego play book? Crap out the first two months, then be good enough to squeak a playoff berth? I'll take San Fran this week.

Colts at Patriots: In 2008, the Detroit Red Wings had to play the Colorado Avalanche in the second round of the playoffs. There was quite a bit of history to that rivalry. What happened? Detroit blew Colorado out in 4 games, where Johan Franzen singlehandedly outscored the entire Colorado team. Why am I writing about this now? In some ways, this game feels like that - people are excited to renew the rivalry between these two perennial AFC champions. I have a sneaking suspicion we're about to find out that it isn't close anymore. I just have really zero idea who that favors. Guess I'm sticking with home team - New England.

Giants at Eagles: This (along with the IND/NE game) is a game of the week, in my opinion. For the lead in the division, am I right, or am I right? I'll take the Eagles; the only hope New York has is to hurt Vick early. Vick is a madman this year. Well, I guess he was always a madman. Literally. I like puppies.

Broncos at Chargers: Chargers have the third ranked pass defense. Bronco's have no running game, really. So I'm gonna take the Chargers. (and in researching the pass defense, I have decided to stick with Joe Flacco as my Fantasy QB this week).

On Maturity

Interesting week. I'm prepared to chime in on a few different topics this week, but I figured I would start with a discussion on maturity.

To get the topic started, why don't you look at Donald Miller's post: I Know how Old You Are. If you're too lazy to click over, the main point that Donald seems to be making is that the vast majority of his criticisms come from young angry white male twenty year olds. And Don relates it to a discussion of maturity.

What made Don's post stick with me was something that happened to me last week - I received a verbal warning from my supervisor. I don't want to examine the content of the warning presently (perhaps later this week), but I do want to examine the possibilities I have for response.


The first response, the angry white twenty-year-old male response is:

"Well, that's unfair. Most of that is beyond my control. It's certainly not my fault; if other people took a second to listen to my side of it, then they would understand."

This would probably not be an unfounded response. I'm sure I could respond line-by-line from everything my supervisor said and justify and explain every single one of my actions that led to the warning. And I think, bottom line, this response comes from a place of fear; a moment where I (or whomever) is thinking only about protecting myself and my 'territory.'


So while that wouldn't be an unfounded response, it certainly wouldn't be a mature one. So let's look at the second response:

"You know what, you're right. I handled these situations poorly, and my response cost something, whether that's in relationships or reputation. I own that, and need to find ways to improve my ability to act and react appropriately."


Now, this post is not to set about and pat myself on the back for my response. I'm fairly confident that I responded in both immature and mature ways (and even if I didn't do so in the actual meeting, I did so in my head). This post is to help remind me to continue growing in that regard.

I look back at my life, and I see situations that have arisen where a response was called for. And there are far too many situations where the response I made was the immature and defensive response; one that wasn't made with growth in mind. I have made many responses in my life based on a fear of even looking bad; I have often entered into situations like the one I did this week with the sole thought of 'how do I come out of this intact? How do I not let this overthrow the status quo? How do I make it clear that this isn't my fault?'

What should I learn from this experience? What does this tell me about who I have been? What does this reveal about who I am? How does this impact who I want to be? These are much better questions to ask in this sort of situation.

In another way of looking at it, immaturity is about protecting my territory, and making sure I don't have to move. It's a turtle that just hides when ever any situation appears dangerous. A better, more mature response, is that of a whale - never staying in the same place, never settling, never retreating, never panicking.

I hope this makes sense and isn't just me rambling. Tell me what you think in the comments below.

Oh, and check back later this week for: NFL week 11 picks, further discussion of the warning, a discussion about being hip, and who knows what else.

Grace and Peace

NFL: Week 10 Quick Review

Correct Picks: Falcons, Jets, Colts, Bucs (lock), Jaguars, 49ers (upset)

Incorrect Picks: Bills, Bears, Dolphins, Broncos, Cowboys, Seahawks, Patriots

Still to Play: Eagles vs Redskins (I picked the Eagles)

Week Thus Far: 6-7

Overall Record: 79-63

Upset: 3-6

Lock: 6-4

Fantasy: I'm up 104-84. I have one player left to play (Eagles - DEF) and the other team has none left. I won handily on the strong play of Roddy White and Kyle Orton.

NFL: Week 10 Quick Picks

Correction from my post the other day: I'm really 73-57. Hard to keep track of.'

Here are the picks:

Ravens at Falcons: Gonna take the Falcons. I'm secretly worried about Baltimore - they haven't won resoundingly yet.

Lions at Bills: Shouldn't back a crappy team on the road, but I can't pick an 0-8 team either. And Detroit has been in every game but one, so I'll take Buffalo... Wait, that was a freudian slip. I'll take Detroit.

Vikings at Bears: Shouldn't back a crappy team on the road... But Chicago? I'll take the Vikes.

Jets at Browns: Shouldnt back... Just kidding! I'll take the Jets and hope for Cleveland to win it. How much would you pay if Colt McCoy winged a pass straight into Rex Ryan's stupid face?

Bengals at Colts: In anyone-but-the-Colts-Land, this might be a let down game. Oh wait, Colts already did that, last week. I'll take the Colts.

Titans at Dolphins: I like the Titans a lot in this game. I don't think Miami can keep up with Tennessee on offense, so we'll probably see another game like last week, when Baltimore won 26-10.

Panthers at Buccaneers: Buc's as the lock.

Texans at Jaguars: Two who gives a crap teams. Flip a coin and take the home team.

Chiefs at Broncos: Two things to know about this game: I'm picking the chiefs, but I'm also expecting Kyle Orton to have an amazing fantasy game.

Cowboys at Giants: I don't feel right picking the Giants as a lock two weeks in a row. It's putting Lock-Of-The-Week on easy-mode, so I'm just going to take the Giants. But not as a lock.

Seahawks at Cardinals: Cardinals. Don't back a crappy team on the road.

Rams at 49ers: 49ers. Don't back a crappy team on the road. I guess this is my upset.

Patriots at Steelers: Steelers, with the homefield advantage. On a neutral field, I would edge Steelers. In New England, I would edge NE. But at Pittsburgh? I'll be safe and take Pitt.

Eagles at Redskins: Ooh, a controversy to brew right before the second rematch. I'll take the Eagles this time - if Vick was in that last game, they would have blown out the Redskins.

NFL: Week 9 Quick Review

Correct Picks: Falcons, Jets, Vikes, Saints, Ravens, Chargers, Giants, Raiders, Packers.

Incorrect: Bears (Forte had >17 carries but they still won), Patriots (me and the rest of the world), and Colts.

I nailed my upset (San Diego) and my lock (Giants). I'm going to lose in Fantasy and break a four game winning streak unless Hines Ward goes nuts and scores 20 points tonight.

Week: 9-3

Overall: 72-55

Lock: 5-4

Upset: 2-6

Quick Lions Thoughts:

1. Whoever called a throw on 3rd and 6 with 1:40 left when Jets had no timeouts deserves to be fired. As well as the knucklehead with the late hit on LT on the ensuing drive.

2. I thought it was cute novelty that Suh tried to kick an extra point. Then we lost in OT - that one point would have won the game.

3. Matthew Stafford. Hurt again. At this point, doesn't his Career Shoulder Injuries outnumber his Career Wins?

NFL: Week 9 Picks

63-54 right now. Effectively tied with Dave Morgan. (A tie is like kissing your sister). Let's look at the picks for Week 9.

Buccaneers at Falcons: I'll take the Falcons. As Dave pointed out, Bucs haven't beaten anyone of note yet.

Bears at Bills: Jeez, who knows. Buffalo is terrible, but they have been quite frisky the past few weeks. Buffalo has the worst rushing defense in the NFL, allowing 188 yards a game. But, this is Mike Martz, who may never run the ball, instead throwing against what is the 6th?!? best pass defense in the game. And, repeat the mantra - don't back crappy teams on the road. Can I make this a conditional pick? If Matt Forte gets less than 17 carries, Buffalo wins. Otherwise Chicago.

Patriots at Browns: I don't think the Browns have two major upsets in them this year, do you? I'll take Brady.

Jets at Lions: Everything points to a Lions loss. They haven't won back to back games in forty years. Jets are a little embarassed. And Defense trumps Offense. And AFC trumps NFC. I could go on, but I'll just take the Jets and be extremely happy if I'm wrong.

Cardinals at Vikings: I had to laugh at Dave's blog, where he wrote that there weren't any crazy headlines for this game. Oh, so Childress releasing Moss without letting the owner of the team know isn't a headline? I think Vikes will win this one and relieve a tiny bit of pressure off Childress.

Saints at Panthers: Um, Saints.

Dolphins at Ravens: Unstoppable road team meats... good-to-great team? Ultimately, this is a dangerous game for both teams, but I'll take the home team.

Chargers at Texans: I shouldn't back a crappy team on the road, but the Chargers may be the best 3-5 team in history, right? I guess I'll take San Diego as my Upset?

Giants at Seahawks: Seattle isn't a good team. The Giants may be the best team in the NFC. Easy enough. Oh, and watch for Charlie Whitehurst once Hasselbeck gets ripped in half! That's my Lock.

Chiefs at Raiders: Flip a coin. I'll take Raiders at home.

Colts at Eagles: I want to say Colts are due for a letdown, but I'm done picking against them. Colts.

Cowboys at Packers: This game looks like it's headed for fluke territory. The Cowboys are terrible, but couldn't you see them coming out and be embarassingly good in a sunday night game? Couldn't you? No. I guess not. Take the Packers.

Steelers at Bengals: Monday night game - I do wonder if this could be a game that TO and Ochocinco might thrive in. And then I remember that they're still be thrown to by Carson Palmer. So I'll stay safe and take the Steelers.

In Fantasy, I'm 4-0 the last 4 weeks. I sense this week won't be as good though. Have to hope for big games from Joe Flacco, Roddy White, Matt Forte, and (gulp) Darren Sproles or Deangelo Williams

Doing the Guest Post Deal

Hola loyal readers!

Today I'm blogging at Journey of a Dad. Come over and read it!

(P.S. No, I'm not a dad yet.)

NFl: Week 8 Review

Overall a good week: here's the review (my picks in italics, winners in bold).

Dolphins at Bengals
Jaguars at Cowboys (lock)
Redskins at Lions
Bills at Chiefs
Panthers at Rams
Packers at Jets
Broncos at 49ers
Titans at Chargers
Seahawks at Raiders
Vikings at Patriots
Buccaneers at Cardinals
Steelers at Saints

Week: 9-3
Year: 63-53
Lock: 4-4
Upset: 1-6

Still Upcoming:
Texans at Colts (upset)


To clarify, I did take the Texans. I realize that the end of my picks post could have been interpreted as a Colts pick, but I am taking the Texans as an upset.

Also, my fluke of the week didn't turn out to be that fluky, I guess. Fluke of the week probably should have gone to Green Bay / NYJ - who would have predicted that game?

In Fantasy Football, I'm going to win my fourth game in a row if Donald brown doesn't score 17 more points than Jacoby Jones tonight. I'm only at 72 points; I think I have a tremendous luck streak going. Look at it like this - I had Felix Jones, Randy Moss, Nick Folk, and Hines Ward starting. I think those four spots totalled 5 points. But then I got monster games from Marcedes Lewis and the Oakland Raiders Defense, and mediocre games from Kyle Orton and Darren Sproles (my backup backup RB). Weird.

NFL: Week 8 Picks

I'm having an up and down year. Two weeks ago, I went 5-9. One week ago, 10-4. This week, 4-10. Does this mean I'm due for another up week?

In fantasy, I started the season with a 4 game winless streak, and am now on a three game winning streak.This week, my MVP Roddy White is on a bye, along with "Matt good when Mike Martz remembers he's there Forte." So I've put in Jacoby Jones (definite underperformer this year, but NFL.com still predicts he'll get 15 points this week?) and Felix Jones. Dallas has to go to Felix with Romo out, right? Right?!?

A few things I'm thinking about this week, a few principles... The first and foremost is something Bill Simmons says. Don't be a hero - just try to win money. I'm not going to overthink my picks. The second principle? Don't back a crappy team on the road. If I had gone with this piece of common sense, I wouldn't have taken Jags, Rams, 49ers, Cards, or the Vikings. That's a five game swing.

On to the picks:

Dolphins at Bengals: I guess I'll take the Dolphins, who are pretty good on the road. Shrug. I'm also listing this as my Fluke of the Week. Who knows what will happen? But I think this is the game that has the most potential to have the weirdest outcome.

Jaguars at Cowboys: Jaguars are a crappy team, on the road. So I take Dallas. Also, Lock.

Redskins at Lions: Gonna take the Lions... Washington is a semi crappy team, and Donovan McNabb is secretly terrible this year; but no one notices because Washington is still doing better than expected.

Bills at Chiefs: Don't over think it. Take the Chiefs.

Panthers at Rams: Crappy team on the road. St Louis lost devastating last week, should rebound.

Packers at Jets: Two big principles in play: 1) when in doubt, take the home team and 2) when in doubt, take the AFC team.

Broncos at 49ers: I'm gonna break my rule already and take the Broncos. Geez, that sounds dumb. I wonder if I'm taking the Broncos so much because I have Kyle Orton in fantasy. But San Francisco is 1-6. Actually, I'm changing my pick right here to San Fran. Don't back crappy teams on the road. Say it with me!

Titans at Chargers: The Titans are bound to throw a game, and the Chargers are bound to win one by sheer talent, eventually, right?

Seahawks at Raiders: Repeat the mantra. I'm so tempted, because this is a classic let down game for Oakland, right? But Seattle can't win on the road. Unless they play Chicago. Who sucks.

Vikings at Patriots: Randy Moss is bound to have a huge game, but New England doesn't have the media ridiculousness (for once). This game scares me because eventually I think Brett Favre will singlehandedly win a game; I just don't know if it's here and now.

Buccaneers at Cardinals: Easy enough, because Buc's just won an emotional game on the last play or whatever, so they're due for a let down. I also think they're better at home then away.

Steelers at Saints: Remember for the GB/NYJ game when I listed two principles? They are at odds here... Home team vs AFC team. Ultimately, I think Pittsburgh realizes they escaped Miami barely and New Orleans is angry about losing to Cleveland. I think New Orleans can win this one.

Texans at Colts: And here we go... I'm gonna do it. I'm gonna play against Manning in a night game. I'm going to take the Texans as an upset. Screw that "don't be a hero."

Wisdom

As you may know, I work for a Skilled Nursing Facility. One of the other staff members is our chaplain, Dave Passey. Dave shared yesterday from James 3:17, and particularly 7 qualities of wisdom, which I have reproduced below:

1. · Pure: Untainted by selfish motives.
2. · Peaceable: Diffuses conflict and brings the peace of Christ.
3. · Gentle: Seeks to understand before judging.
4. · Willing to yield: Not insistent on its own viewpoint.
5. · Full of mercy and good fruit: Showing patience and willing to give others space.
6. · Impartial: Shows no favoritism.
7. · Without hypocrisy: Lives a life of integrity, i.e. walks the talk.

I chose to put this on here today because I feel it's important to meditate on, because there is a veritable difference between Intelligence and Wisdom.

One of the gifts I have is intelligence. There is no real way to say this and sound humble, but the truth I very rarely do not feel more intelligent than anyone else in the room. It actually throws me off my edge when I'm in the company of someone who is smarter than me.

But I definitely don't have much wisdom some times. I make lots of mistakes that should be easy to see coming. And I think that comes from a realm of dealing with people (wisdom) versus a realm of the physical world (intelligence). I think you can see that most of those points above refer to relationships with people, rather than relationships with things.

Here's what I mean: Intelligence can tell me that someone needs encouragement. Wisdom can tell me how and when to encourage them. In some ways, Wisdom makes intelligence superfluous. If you can successfully understand the people around you, you can go far.

Most successful leaders are people of wisdom. Most successful managers are people of intelligence. I think I would be pretty successful as a manager but not that successful as a leader.

So that's one of my goals; to go from doing well with the world around me to doing well with the people around me.

NFL: Week 7 Review

Shrug. I told you it was a pick em affair. I think next week I'll start a new type of pick, to replace the long forgotten x-factor - the Fluke of the Week (this week: Oakland!)

Bengals at Falcons

Redskins at Bears

Eagles at Titans

Jaguars at Chiefs

Steelers at Dolphins

Browns at Saints

Rams at Buccaneers

49ers at Panthers

Bills at Ravens

Cardinals at Seahawks

Raiders at Broncos

Patriots at Chargers (Upset)

Vikings at Packers

Giants at Cowboys (Lock)

Week: 4-10

Year: 54-50

Lock: 4-3

Upset: 1-6

NFL: Week 7 Picks

Quite the slate of weird games this week. I think it's entirely possible to misread the week and end up with another 6-10 or 5-11 week. 10 of the 14 games have spreads of less than 5 points. Ah randomness, to the picks.

Bengals at Falcons: See, this is a game I don't know about. I wonder if Carson Palmer could rebound. But I also think the Falcons could rebound. The line for the game is ATL +4; I think I'll take Atlanta. Homefield wins in case of doubt.

Redskins at Bears: Jeez, two games in a row. Raise your hand if you think the Bears are any good. Now raise your hand if you think the Redskins are any good. Washington lost a close one to Indianapolis; and the Bears looked horrible against the Seahawks. If I was to guess, I would think Mike Martz will do the smart thing and actually use Matt Forte again. But Washington has to see that coming.... BAH! I'll take Bears.

Eagles at Titans: Both teams came off impressive wins last week. But I still think the Titans may be a great rough team in the making, so I'll take them.

Jaguars at Chiefs: The first 8 teams so far have been maddeningly imprecise. Who knows in any of these picks? Seriously, flip a coin. A hometeam gets three points for being a hometeam, and ATL is +4, Bears and Titans are +3. And Chiefs/Jags are even. I'm going to pick the Jaguars though; big rebound game for MJD.

Steelers at Dolphins: Now we start to get some games that are easier to pick. Steelers. Miami hasn't beaten anyone of importance yet (Minn? Green Bay? Buffalo?).

Browns at Saints: Ooh, possible trap game? Or are the Saints back to form? This is a good litmus test. If the Browns stay in or win this game, I think we can probably safely write off New Orleans. Since I'm not ready for that, I'll pick the Saints. (Maybe the Madden curse is hitting the players around Drew Brees, huh?)

Rams at Buccaneers: Can you believe these teams are both decent this year? And the winner has a decent look at the playoffs? I'm picking St Louis. I think they're a more complete team.

49ers at Panthers: Homedog syndrome. So I'll take Carolina... Crickets chirp. Wait, that's a dumb idea. I'll take San Francisco.

Bills at Ravens: Championship teams blow out these sort of games. See what the Jets did to Buffalo a few weeks ago, now realize that the Ravens are better than the Jets. I pick the Ravens.

Cardinals at Seahawks: Does anyone know if either of these teams are even average? I guess I'll take Arizona; Seattle didn't win last week, Chicago lost.

Raiders at Broncos: Denver, by a mile. They're getting desperate. (Side note: are they perhaps the most fun team to watch right now? They basically run a Madden videogame offense and every game seems to end on the last play.)

Patriots at Chargers: I'm gonna maybe cheat a little and take San Diego as my Upset. Patriots are traveling across the coast and just won an emotional game against the Ravens.

Vikings at Packers: Armageddon. Is Brett distracted? Is he finally going to have a Favre game where he throws a ton of passes that miraculously get caught? I think I'll take the Vikings. They played a solid game and let Dallas beat themselves; and I think it will help their confidence this week.

Giants at Cowboys: Giants are getting a little too full of themselves, so I'll take Dallas as the Lock.

NFL: Week 6 Review

Woo! Let's take a look at the picks (mine in italics, correct in bold):

Seahawks at Bears

Dolphins at Packers

Chargers at Rams

Ravens at Patriots

Lions at Giants

Falcons at Eagles

Browns at Steelers (lock)

Saints at Buccaneers

Chiefs at Texans

Jets at Broncos

Raiders at 49ers
Cowboys at Vikings

Colts at Redskins

Titans at Jaguars

Week: 10-4

Year: 50-40

Lock: 4-2

Upset: 1-5

Heck yeah, what a good weekend. I went 10-4, won my Fantasy game by .8 points, and looked nearly prescient. My Denver as upset pick was my sole heartbreaker; and that I blame on the rest of the country jumping on my bandwagon and picking the same upset. Here's a rule: if 90% of the country thinks it's an upset, 90% of the time it won't be. So my upset got... upset?

Let's look real quick at a few other NFL predictions; I already detailed how well I'm doing having picked the division winners.

Best Prediction:

Overhyped: Dallas Cowboys, New York Jets, and one of either: Green Bay, Baltimore, San Diego. At least two of those teams will miss the playoffs, but they're all ranked in the top 8 of Sports Illustrated's Power Rankings.

I nailed that, huh? Dallas and San Diego for sure, and possibly Green Bay.

Worst Prediction:

Ultra Surprise Dark Horse: Ladies and gentlemen, the Cleveland Browns!

A swing and a miss!

Writing

I've been musing about writing again for some time. I've been thinking about what I should be writing; which is encouraging. Too often I fall into the trap of I should be writing and stop thinking about the why or the content.

I see it on this blog. Other than my NFL posts, which aren't what I consider writing, the blog has been pretty sparse. Occasionally I'll break through and write something meaningful, but I'll confess that sometimes it feels like pulling teeth.

I've long believed that life moves in cycles. Specifically, my creative impulses move like the tides - there is a definite ebb and flow. I will go through a period where I absolutely devour books; another time where I am literally writing so much for the blog that I have to plan it out and think about what meshes well; and other times I'm very engrossed in gaming and strategic thoughts. Certainly, I do all of these at the same time; but one of them will tend to dominate my free time. For example, just because I'm reading a ton, doesn't mean I won't be playing Warhammer.

I think the cycles each represent something for me:

a) Reading is my input cycle. I devour books when I'm in this cycle. It's not uncommon for me to hit up a used book store and bring home four books of different genre's and read them in the space of a single weekend. I think this is what opens me up to new ideas and new thought processes. I let thoughts and concepts enter my brain and soak in.

b) Gaming is my vegetative cycle. I'm shutting down the input and output sections of my brain and testing what I've learned. Sometimes this plays out on a tabletop or in a video game; sometimes it just plays out in my imagination and thought processes. This is a period of testing; of divination; of sorting out the wheat from the chaffe.

c) Writing is the output cycle. After learning and after testing, I can go through a period where I find new ways to express and create what I've learned. I pour out what's been rattling around until I'm empty again.

Right now, I feel myself pulling out of the gaming cycle and moving towards a writing cycle. I'll still 'game' and still read, but I think I feel major creative potential welling. I'm planning to take advantage of that and write something; perhaps something more than can be contained on this blog. A few projects that have been more or less on hold:

1. Ashram - Needs a rewrite to get to a third draft.

2. My Mom's Story - Only ever wrote two chapters.

3. 337 - Mostly defunct at this point. Would need a few other life changes to get back to this.

4. Various Fictional Ideas - No work done besides preliminary dreaming and basic plotting.

Writing those out, my gut leans towards writing more of my Mom's story. That's hard, but the other projects seem harder in my mind. And it would be good to have this particular story out of the way. I think my goal will be to have something new completed (first draft) by Christmas.

Anyway, that's a bit of a peak into the creative process for me and a bit of my thought process currently. I would appreciate any encouragement you have!

NFL: Week 6 Picks

Before we make the week 6 picks, I have a few thoughts:

Here are the 09/10 Division winners: Dallas, Minnesota, New Orleans, Arizona, New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, San Diego. They are currently 17-17, and the only one currently leading their division is the horrid Arizona Cardinals.

Now imagine if... You picked your preseason division winners as the above list and you're only change was to take San Francisco and Pittsburgh (respectable preseason picks). Congrats, you are 15-20.

For the record, my divisional winners were Ravens, Chargers, Colts, Patriots, Saints, Packers, Eagles, and Cardinals. I'm 24-15.

The Picks:

Seahawks at Bears: Well, this is getting ridiculous. I can't keep making excuses for the Bears, who keep winning despite being the worst 4-1 team in history. They're soon to be the worst 5-1 team in history, because Seattle is even worse on the road. Another big game for Matt Forte.

Dolphins at Packers: Will Aaron Rodgers play? That effects my pick, I think. If it's Matt Flynn playing, I'll take the Dolphins. In fact, if Green Bay wasn't edging into mental desperation mode, I would still take them, but I think if Rodgers plays I'll take the Packers.

Chargers at Rams: San Diego is still pretty bad on the road. But I don't think Sam Bradford can put up the 400 yards or whatever to beat Philip Rivers. Bradford is good, but he's not great. Yet.

Ravens at Patriots: Ooh, tough game to pick. I'll take the Patriots (homefield).

Lions at Giants: Could the Lions win two in a row for the first time since 1903? Uh, nope. I hope Matt Stafford doesn't play this game - the Giants still have an ugly defense who would be only too happy to break another quarterback. Giants win.

Falcons at Eagles: I sense that if I hated the Falcons like I hate the Bears, I would find lots of reasons to doubt them... So I'll pick Philadelphia.

Browns at Steelers: Lock of the Week. Colt McCoy on the road at Pittsburgh... That should be pretty terrifying for Cleveland people.

Saints at Buccaneers: It amuses me to think that I could almost take this an upset by picking New Orleans. But yeah, New Orleans wins. (Tampa Bay has a better record than NO; isn't that insane?)

Chiefs at Texans: I still think the Chiefs fluked out for three games. Texans are a solid team and should win this one.

Jets at Broncos: Home field advantage, and Kyle Orton has already shown that he can shred a good passing defense. And the Jets didn't exactly shut down Flacco/Brady/Favre. I'll pick Bronco's in my Upset of the Week.

Raiders at 49ers: Classic let down game for Oakland, right? And San Francisco has to win eventually. Might as well take them now.

Cowboys at Vikings: Who is more desperate? Here's my real question - at what point will Favre just say "This is ridiculous. I'm retiring effective immediately." Week 8? 9? Seriously, he has no reputation left. He's no longer "having fun out there." And would he risk his starting streak ended by a sexting allegation? I think Dallas comes out and throttles him, and he decides to pack it up. Thursday Update: I change my pick to the Vikings. Gotta remember they won 34-3 last year.

Colts at Redskins: When will the Colts start playing like the Colts? Probably this week. I tell you what scares me though... I have no doubt that the Colts will win 10 straight every season. And if they don't start the season with that craziness, they're going to end with it.

Titans at Jaguars: The Jaguars aren't a good team, and Tennessee might be a great team. Titans have lost to Pittsburgh, who may be one of the best AFC teams, and to Denver - the game in which everyone started to realize that Kyle Orton might start shredding records this year. Kyle Freaking Orton. Anyway, I'll take the Titans.

I'll be reviewing more of my preseason predictions with the review of these picks next week. Enjoy!