NFL 2012 - Week 4

Here's my record so far:


15-3-30

Dismal. Fantasy? I'm 3-6. Just as dismal. Glad I didn't take any money to Vegas. Although, to be fair, I did actually pick the Green Bay / Seattle game correctly. Refs cost me that one. I also apparently didn't make a pick on the Jets / Miami game, so I took that as a push.

I'm hoping things are going to even out. Here are my quick picks against the spread this week (which side of the bet I like)

Ravens over 13
Falcons over 8
NE over 5
Det over 5
SD over 1
Seahawks under 3
SF over 5
Texans Under 12
Broncos Under 7
Arizona Over 6
Cincy Over 3
Green Bay Under 8
Tampa Bay Over 3
Eagles Under 1
Dallas Under 4

NFL 12 - Week 2

Rough week. 5-11 against the spread, and 1-2 in Fantasy. I lost one fantasy game by 1.9 points - about 19 yards. Let's move on to this weeks picks (lines are from ESPN):

Bears at Packers (GB under 5): Week 2 is week of the Mirage in the NFL. Who's a mirage and who's for real? Is Green Bay falling down this year, or are the Bears the unstoppable superbowl juggernaut? I'm not sure yet - but I know that GB and CHI usually play close. I predict that GB wins by a field goal, so I like the under.

Chiefs at Bills (Buf under 3): I like me some Jamaal Charles this week, and I like K-City straight up.

Browns at Bengals (Cin Over 7): Take the over here. Rookie qb on the road.

Vikings at Colts (Min Over 2): So the most likely scenario after two weeks - Minnesota all alone in first place in the NFC north. Did you see that coming?

Raiders at Dolphins (Oak Over 3): I'm annoyed that I lost my Oakland pick last week because of a long snapper. Also, Dave has to be a bit worried about San Diego, as they didn't look like rockstars. I'll take Oakland here (Miami is paradoxically much worse at home).

Cardinals at Patriots (NE over 14): A huge line, and maybe too much. Arizona is better than we give them credit for, but I still like the Pats.

Bucs at Giants (NY Over 7): I like New York to bounce back and trounce the Bucs.

Ravens at Eagles (PHI Under 3): How exactly are these two teams even? Even if you could talk me into thinking the offenses are equal (game changing rb's, deep wr's,), the defense of Baltimore should give them more points. I like Baltimore.

Saints at Panthers (NO Over 3): Well, if they don't win this one, I'm going to start worrying about Drew Brees in my auction league.

Texans at Jaguars (Hou Over 8): Blaine Gabbert... I don't trust him against a mediocre team.

Redskins at Rams (WSH Over 3): Whoa, RGIII. Slow your roll. When does the hype train stop? Not this week.

Cowboys at Seahawks (Dal Under 3): Seattle has a great home field. Dallas is due (already) for their choke game where they want to hang Tony Romo afterwards. I guess if I was picking upsets this is it.

Jets at Steelers (Pit Over 6): Jets were a mirage fueled by a crappy Buffalo defense. Pittsburgh may try to murder Tebow if they can.

Titans at Chargers (SD Under 6): SD did not look good. Titans looked ok, just outclassed. I like Tennessee to show up and keep it close.

Lions at 49ers (SF Over 7): Look, I don't know. The smart pick is the over. My heart wants to rebel and say "But the Lions might backdoor cover!" But don't pick on that (Look at last weeks Indy/Chicago pick). I'll pick SF over.

Broncos at Falcons (ATL Under 3): The loss of Brent Grimes hurts bad, and this is not the week to start playing without him. And never ever bet against Peyton Manning on a nationally televised game.

Fantasy: I'm favored in two leagues this week, and a big underdog in one. But I'm pretty sure they've vastly underprojected the Law-Firm and Joe Flacco, who roped me back in.

NFL 12 - Week 1

NFL is back. It's amazing how exciting that becomes, even when it comes back every year. I'm picking strictly against the spread this year, and I'll be getting the spreads from wherever seems convenient. Today's lines are coming from Dave's excellent blog. After the lines, I'll do a couple of season theories and a quick review of my three Fantasy teams.

Dallas at New York - I had NY Over 4. Obviously I already lost this one, but this is a good way to show how a spread works to those that don't know. The line set for this game was NY+4 - meaning you needed to bet either that New York would win by at least that margin or that they wouldn't win by that margin. So, if you bet the over, and Dallas wins or New York only wins by a field goal, then you lose (because the bet went under). Does that make sense? Hopefully. Another thing to note is that if two teams are considered dead even, the home team should be favored by 3.

Colts at Bears - CHI Under 9.5. I like Andrew Luck to come up with a back door cover.

Falcons at Chiefs - ATL Under 3. Hard line, as I'm up on both teams this year. I like the Chiefs to surprise here, as I think their offense might be hard for ATL to handle.

Eagles at Browns - PHI Over 9. Hard to stomach a road team getting 9 points, but God hates Cleveland.

Patriots at Titans - NE Over 6. Lock it up baby! Love New England this year.

Jags at Vikings - MIN Under 4. If you're in an eliminator challenge this week, Minnesota isn't a bad play. How many other times will you get to pick them? I think they win but I'm not giving them that much.

Redskins at Saints - NO Over 7.5. I'm scared of Drew Brees deciding to do a Tom Brady "EFF YOU" season after the Bounty Gate. That's why I bid about $60 on him in my Auction.

Bills at Jets - NYJ Under 3. I hate the Jets so much. This is a hard game, but I'll take the Bills because I can't wait for the Jets to fall apart.

Rams at Lions - DET Over 7.5. Gotta take the home boys. How many touchdowns does Calvin get, and how much of a coming out party is this for Titus Young? Once Finnegan is on Calvin (which won't matter), who's left to cover the fastest guy on the field?

Dolphins at Texans - HOU under 12. Too many points. There's always one team that struggles a bit out of the gate, and I see the Texans winning but getting a bit scared. Let's not forget that the Texans have a history before last year of blowing their first game.

49ers at Packers - GB Over 5. Taking GB; as it's a home game, and I expect a major regression from San Fran.

Seahawks at Cardinals - SEA Under 3. Agree with Dave. Not taking a rookie QB on the road in his first game.

Panthers at Bucs - CAR Under 3. Grantland has been taking about a "plexiglass" principle - teams that bounce dramatically in one direction tend to bounce a bit back towards where they were. Carolina had a +4 win record, Tampa Bay had a -6 win record. I expect them to average out (TB at 7 or 8 wins and CAR at 4 or 5 wins). So I'll take the 'better' team at home.

Steelers at Broncos - DEN Under 1.5. Pittsburgh is really good. And mad about losing last year.

Bengals at Ravens - BAL Over 6. I always give too much respect to Flacco. Also I expect a sophomore slump from Green/Dalton.

Chargers at Raiders - OAK Over 1. Run-DMC isn't hurt yet, and I don't buy the notoriously slow starting Chargers.


A few bold predictions about the season:

At least one of the following teams is overrated and isn't challenging for a playoff spot: Chicago, Buffalo, Seattle.
At least one of the following teams isn't winning their division: Green Bay, New England, Houston.
At least two of these rookies are major disappointments: Russell Wilson, Trent Richardson, Ryan Tannehill.
The following Injury Prone Players play at least 14 games each: Run-DMC, Andre Johnson, Michael Vick.

Fantasy Teams:
In three leagues this year. Here they are and my thoughts:

Go Lions League - Starters: Schaub, Ray Rice, J. Charles, Jordy Nelson, Colston, Jimmy Graham, Green-Ellis, Ryan Succop, and Seahawks D/ST. Bench: McGahee, Kevin Smith, Garcon, Maclin, Little, Blackmon.

I had third pick overall, and I feel real strong about this team. I think I have the best team in this league (definitely top two). I'm weakest at QB, but pretty strong elsewhere. I do have a tendency to draft lots of WR's as opposed to RBs, as we'll see in my other leagues.

TheDream League - Starters: Rodgers, Lloyd, Desean Jackson, Titus Young, Forte, Fred Jackson, Jacob Tamme, Rian Lindell, New England D/ST. Bench: Sidney Rice, Green-Ellis, Deangelo Williams, Malcom Floyd, Jacquizz Rodgers.

I'm annoyed with this team. I was the only player who didn't autodraft, so there were never players that 'fell.' Also, there is no flex spot - it's three WRs. We'll see how it goes.

Seattle Smashers League - Starters: Brees, J. Charles, Bradshaw, Antonio Brown, Lloyd, Tony Gonzalez, Julio Jones, Eagles D/ST, Robbie Gould. Bench: Stevie Johnson, Maclin, Peyton Hillis, Torrey Smith, Isaac Redman, Britt, Ryan Williams.

First ever auction draft. I stuck to nominating players I didn't want to make others spend money (got someone to spend $5 right at the start for a defense!), and had more money at the end of the draft than anyone else. My biggest purchase was Brees at $59 ($200 cap), which was more and earlier than I wanted, but there was a good run on QB's early. Stafford went for $67. Best story: I waited until near the very end to nominate Julio Jones, and got him for $10 because noone had money left. I really enjoyed this style of draft - definitely recommend it. I'm excited for this league.

The Notepocalypse 2.0: Why I'm not Voting and Why You Shouldn't Either

The Notepocalypse 2 – Why I’m Not Voting (and Why You Shouldn’t Either)


Four years ago, I wrote The Notepocalypse. It had two main goals – explain why I was voting for Barack Obama and call out some of the stupidest political drivel I had seen written on Facebook. It proved to be a rather contentious post, attracting hundred of comments.

So here we are, four years later. And it’s time for something else controversial. Because once again, people are posting political drivel on Facebook. It really is the 21st century lawn sign.

I’m not voting this year. Not at all. I’m going to defuse some of the most common arguments, and then I’m going to explain why you shouldn’t vote either.

“If you don’t vote, then you don’t have a right to complain.” Uh, pretty sure I do. That’s freedom of speech, which is a right that I’m given regardless of whether or not I vote. A flip side of it is that if I vote for a candidate who is disappointing, I also shouldn’t complain. That’s also not true. Just because I voted for Obama in 08 doesn’t mean I don’t believe that he could have done better.

”It’s your civic duty.” Another pithy statement that doesn’t really stand up to any scrutiny. I have a right to, not a responsibility to, vote. No one is making me vote, or holding me accountable to vote. And even if it was an actual duty that just means it’s on the level of jury duty – not exactly high praise.

“This candidate honors God the best/supports more ‘Christian’ policies.” For my Christian friends, some of whom seem to have a hard time realizing that all candidates just give lip service to God. I am curious how the evangelical right will spend this election; is it okay to vote for a Mormon? If that’s okay, then why does the candidate need to be Christian at all?

“But Romans/Acts/Some Other Out of Context Verse tells me I should vote.” No they don’t. You are never asked in the Bible to participate in worldly politics, but simply to not disobey unless a law goes against God. Look at Jesus’ example – he didn’t play around with politics, but existed primarily outside of the political definitions of his day. He was appropriately respectful but also distant.

“Democracy doesn’t work if you don’t vote.” Doesn’t seem to be working all that well with the voting either! Bazing!

Okay, so I think those are the most common arguments as to why I should vote (without getting into particular ideologies). Now, here’s a bunch of reasons not to vote:

“My vote does not matter.” It’s pretty simple math. Even in the 2000 election, which came down to 600 votes or something in the state of Florida, a single vote didn’t do anything. This applies triply so if you don’t live in a “swing” state – if you’re not Ohio or Florida, you should probably save yourself the gas on Election Day.

“My vote does not matter, pt 2.” Let’s say hypothetically that your vote from the prior example did matter. You were the one special snowflake that actually decided a presidency. Great! Were you also the special snowflake that decided hundreds of congress/senate seats? How about judicial appointments? You realize that we have a whole “checks and balances” thing, right? It’s pretty clear from Obama’s last term that it’s not that hard to stymie a president legally. So even in the perfect situation – you elected yourself (who better to agree with your viewpoint), it doesn’t matter as much as you think.

“I have no idea who to vote for.” I’m not talking about presidents here, folks. There are dozens of other names/agendas/propositions on the ballot. The last ballot I cast I voted for the assistant county clerk. I have no idea if the person I voted for can handle the job. Either I vote straight party (which is dangerous, as all parties are filled with idiots) or I vote blindly, in which case a monkey could fill out my ballot.

“I only have two choices.” Well, we’ve had democratic and republican presidents in the past. They are pretty much known quantities with different faces now. What are the chances that the things that we have been doing are actually the things to get us out of the messes we’re in? The definition of insanity is, of course, doing the same thing and expecting dissimilar results. If you want to know how Obama’s second campaign will be, look at his first. If you want to know what a Romney presidency will be like, check out the last republican presidency. Until there’s an actual option for a third party, growth and change are hopeless.

“The people who I’m voting for are politicians.” It is their job, after all, to get you to vote for them. History has shown that people have a strong tendency to put their scruples behind them when they think it involves money or power. Has any president lived up to their campaign promises?

“And finally, a word about the founding fathers.” There is a dangerous misconception that because the founding fathers created a country in 1776 we should always follow what they said. Newsflash: 1770 was nearly 250 years ago. They could not have imagined the world we live in now, and the challenges that we face. Let’s all agree that they had some great ideas, but that we aren’t limited to what they said. Case in point: there’s a meme floating around Facebook that says “Let’s use our tax power to force people to do things, said no founding father ever.” That’s great. Here’s a short list of other things that the founding fathers also never said: “Maybe we should just do what the government wants, according to Romans 13.” Or “Is Facebook a good investment?” or “Mission accomplished.” And they definitely never said “Hey, what does that Black guy / Woman / Muslim / anyone but an old-white-dude think?”

Well, that’s a good start for discussion. What do you think? As a fair warning, enter into the discussion calmly and clearheadedly – stupidity will be labeled as such.

Super Bowl

I'm 5-5 throughout the playoffs. One game left.

I'll pick the Patriots. I like Tom Brady and don't like Eli.

Also, I've been listening to too much Bill Simmons. I nearly went online and bet Jake Ballard for the first touchdown (18-1!). But once I start gambling online, it's over.

NFL Championship Weekend

Straight up 4-4 throughout. I missed on what team would lay an egg (although Baltimore came close anyway).

Important thing to remember here: Destiny doesn't exist. The two matchups that the media is dreaming about (Super Bowl 07 rematch; Harbowl) aren't going to happen. This isn't a sports movie that will line up at the last second.

So, seconds before the first game:

I like New England (but not by 9) and I like San Fran (over three).

NFL Divisional Weekend

2-2 Last Week. Lions should have no shame in getting blown out by the Saints.

On to this week...

One home team is blowing it. Let's be honest. That's whats happening. The obvious (and therefore not happening) choices are San Fran and Green Bay. I think San Fran may still lose, but the narrative won't be "sluggish and hurt by the bye." The choice for that narrative will be between Baltimore or New England, which both have a recent history of not showing up at times in the postseason. We'll figure it out shortly!

Saints at 49ers (NO by 4): Overhype alert: New Orleans. No respect for a team that won the bye. I'll take the 49ers. I think if you can rattle Drew Brees in the first half and play good defense in the second half (the Lions were halfway there), you have a good shot. San Fran will slow down the game, and that will frustrate Brees. I like San Fran to win here.

Broncos at Patriots (NE by 14): New England does have our potential blown potential narrative, and when we combine that with possibility of the "miraculous Tim Tebow comeback that in retrospect shouldn't be credited to Tim Tebow but rather to some dumb luck and mistakes by the other team" narrative, we could have a compelling story. However, I just don't see that. It's too obvious. Whenever something is obvious, swing the other way. I like the Patriots here by a mile.

Texans at Ravens (Bal by 9): Here it is. Our sleepy bye team, combined with the team that no one is really giving a shot to win. If you look at all the games, the Texans are probably the eight most popular pick. People are making legitimate cases on both sides of the San Fran/New Orleans and Green Bay / New York games. New England is favored, and Tim Tebow has Tebow magic, so they're probably closer to fifty fifty picks. But really noone is picking the Texans. And so I will. Second games between teams are generally closer, so that's my justification if I need one.

Finally, New York at Green Bay (GB by 9). It's a little too obvious for New York to pull an upset here, and so I will swing for Green Bay to win handily.

A Weird Note I Just Noticed: 5/8 of the teams have two word place names (Green Bay, New York, etc). That's 62.5%. Only 10 of the 32 teams have two word place names (31.2%). I don't know what that means, but it's interesting. Or perhaps just dumb. The only game that pits the two against each other is New England/Denver.

NFL: Wildcard Weekend

I rested my starters the last two weeks. Sorry. That's life.

Anyway, let's look at the playoff matchups.

My playoff picking rules:

1. Momentum Matters.
2. One team is overhyped, one team is underhyped.
3. When in doubt, take the home team. But pick at least one road team.
4. Destiny Exists.
5. One team is kryptonite.

These have served me well the last two years, as I have gone 0-8 in the wildcard round. I'm feeling it this year though, so let's get to the picks.

The Coin Flip Games:

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (Hou by 3)
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (NYG by 3)

A 50/50 bet either way. I wouldn't put money on these games. None of the teams qualify for overhype/underhype; the two teams with positive momentum are playing each other; the two teams with negative momentum are playing each other; and it's too early to identify a kryptonite.

I listened to Aaron Schatz the other day and he said that Atlanta is the most consistent team in the league - you know what you're getting. But New York must be the most inconsistent team (well, maybe the most inconsistent team not named Baltimore). So either good New York (smoked Dallas last week) or bad New York (lost to Washington the week before) shows up. I don't think Atlanta hangs, and I think we see good New York here. I like the Giants +3.

As far as Cincy/Houston, it's a game of two rookie quarterbacks. Anything could happen. And so we refer to rule 3 - when in doubt, take the home team. Houston +3.


The Predicted Blowouts

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (NO by 11)

I'm jumping all over this one and taking Detroit to cover the spread and win the game outright. Fanboy, who cares. Here are the relevant facts:

• Detroit outgained New Orleans four weeks ago, not accounting for penalty yards.


• Detroit was missing three or four key defensive players four weeks ago, and still held New Orleans to it's lowest home point total.


• Matt Stafford was at the very end of his funk four weeks ago, and is now playing out of his mind.


• New Orleans is definitely the most overhyped team coming into round 1. Remember when they blew that stinker to St Louis? This is not the second coming of Touchdown Jesus.

I'm taking Detroit. I'm so confident that I emailed Bill Simmons and told him he was messing with a "Nobody believes in us" team because he was podcasting about whether the weather in San Francisco would mess with New Orleans.

And yes, I may have just doomed my team.

Steelers at Broncos (PIT by 9)

I'm flip flopping on this game. I already have one road team winning, so I don't need to take Pittsburgh. Ultimately, I'm going to take Pittsburgh, unfortunately, and here's why - I can't possibly go 0-4 3 years in a row. But now, if I do, I will have missed on two coin flip games (shrug), on my home team winning, and on Tebow. That' seems defensible for next year.

Go Lions!