Quick NFL Conference Championship Picks

Two favorites this weekend, and they both aren't winning. Additionally, we aren't getting the Harbaugh Bowl.

So I'll take New England and Atlanta.

6-2 so far.

NFL: 2013 Divisional Picks

Perfect 4-0 last week. Let's keep it going.

Here's where the difficulty comes - one of the top four seeds is going to look sluggish and not show up. The favorite is Atlanta, who have a recent history of doing just that. Let's talk about each game.

Baltimore at Denver

I didn't think Baltimore played well last week. Their best hope is that they catch Denver sleeping (a decent possibility). Let's also not forget that Peyton Manning has a strong history of choking in the playoffs (2006 not withstanding). So that's your case for Baltimore.

Your case for Denver? They're just better. On just about every facet of the ball.

Also, I refuse to support Joe Flacco anymore. I finally ditched him in fantasy and rode Colin Kaepernick to a championship. I will take Denver.

Houston at New England

I like New England here. Houston looks done.

Green Bay at San Francisco

Probably the hardest game to pick. For most of the week, I was thinking of just picking Green Bay. But really, I think San Fran might be the better team. The obvious question mark is QB, but I don't think Kaepernick is a liability at home. In the end, I'll take the home team.

(P.S. This game should be in Green Bay. Friggin Seattle).

Atlanta at Seattle

So we come to it now. I haven't picked a sleeper (which here means the obvious of the regular season term sleeper), and I guess I'll take Atlanta to forget how to play.

Let's talk a minute about the Seahawks. They have a ferocious (read: dirty) defense, a good running game, and an unproven rookie quarterback who is the talk of the town, and a gaggle of mediocre receivers. They won a lucky wildcard game, and are about to catch a sleeping bye team. Also, they have green on their uniforms.

You know what team that sounds like? New York Jets, two or three years ago. The Jets went to a conference championship twice in a row, but lost when they played against a proven playoff team that wasn't asleep from the bye. And that's what I imagine happening here - Seattle wins again by surprising a sluggish Atlanta, but then will lose to a prepared-to-embarass-Seattle-who-is-also-on-the-verge-of-stealing-the-nearest-basketball-team San Francisco 49ers.

(the final note: I don't believe in Destiny, which means that we are not getting Green Bay / Seattle - so at least one of those teams is losing).

So those are my picks. Denver, New England, San Francisco, Seattle.

NFL: 2013 Wildcard Picks

Time to come out of blogging retirement and make my NFL Playoff Picks. Here are my rules:

1. Momentum Matters.
2. One team is overhyped, one team is underhyped.
3. When in doubt, take the home team. But pick at least one road team.
4. Destiny Exists.
5. One team is kryptonite.

So let's look at each game in order.

Cincy at Houston

This has got to be an overhype/underhype matchup. Everyone is begging to take Cincy. But tell me this: isn't Cincy just an underexperienced Houston? They have an underwhelming quarterback, one crazy receiver, and a good running game. The difference is Houston is home with the excellent RB who is well rested. So I'll take Houston.

Minnesota at Green Bay

When in doubt, take Aaron Rodgers at home in the playoffs. Simple enough. I'm not putting much thought into this.

Indy at Baltimore

Let's review why I don't believe Destiny exists (in regards to NFL Playoffs): a few years ago, we very noticeably did not get Brett Favre vs Green Bay in the playoffs. I don't think we're getting Luck v. Manning either. Baltimore wins here handily.

Seattle at Washington

I'm supposed to pick a road team. And I hate Seattle, so they might be my kryptonite. I see a very definite possibility of Seattle flaming out, but I'm going to pick them. Maybe I'll be wrong, in which case I'll be ecstatic.



Quick Fantasy Note:

I lost badly (last place) in my work league. I just missed the playoffs in my Seattle league (short by 20 points).

And I won Go Lions! We are the champions... Let's try for a repeat.

NFL 2012 - Week 4

Here's my record so far:


15-3-30

Dismal. Fantasy? I'm 3-6. Just as dismal. Glad I didn't take any money to Vegas. Although, to be fair, I did actually pick the Green Bay / Seattle game correctly. Refs cost me that one. I also apparently didn't make a pick on the Jets / Miami game, so I took that as a push.

I'm hoping things are going to even out. Here are my quick picks against the spread this week (which side of the bet I like)

Ravens over 13
Falcons over 8
NE over 5
Det over 5
SD over 1
Seahawks under 3
SF over 5
Texans Under 12
Broncos Under 7
Arizona Over 6
Cincy Over 3
Green Bay Under 8
Tampa Bay Over 3
Eagles Under 1
Dallas Under 4

NFL 12 - Week 2

Rough week. 5-11 against the spread, and 1-2 in Fantasy. I lost one fantasy game by 1.9 points - about 19 yards. Let's move on to this weeks picks (lines are from ESPN):

Bears at Packers (GB under 5): Week 2 is week of the Mirage in the NFL. Who's a mirage and who's for real? Is Green Bay falling down this year, or are the Bears the unstoppable superbowl juggernaut? I'm not sure yet - but I know that GB and CHI usually play close. I predict that GB wins by a field goal, so I like the under.

Chiefs at Bills (Buf under 3): I like me some Jamaal Charles this week, and I like K-City straight up.

Browns at Bengals (Cin Over 7): Take the over here. Rookie qb on the road.

Vikings at Colts (Min Over 2): So the most likely scenario after two weeks - Minnesota all alone in first place in the NFC north. Did you see that coming?

Raiders at Dolphins (Oak Over 3): I'm annoyed that I lost my Oakland pick last week because of a long snapper. Also, Dave has to be a bit worried about San Diego, as they didn't look like rockstars. I'll take Oakland here (Miami is paradoxically much worse at home).

Cardinals at Patriots (NE over 14): A huge line, and maybe too much. Arizona is better than we give them credit for, but I still like the Pats.

Bucs at Giants (NY Over 7): I like New York to bounce back and trounce the Bucs.

Ravens at Eagles (PHI Under 3): How exactly are these two teams even? Even if you could talk me into thinking the offenses are equal (game changing rb's, deep wr's,), the defense of Baltimore should give them more points. I like Baltimore.

Saints at Panthers (NO Over 3): Well, if they don't win this one, I'm going to start worrying about Drew Brees in my auction league.

Texans at Jaguars (Hou Over 8): Blaine Gabbert... I don't trust him against a mediocre team.

Redskins at Rams (WSH Over 3): Whoa, RGIII. Slow your roll. When does the hype train stop? Not this week.

Cowboys at Seahawks (Dal Under 3): Seattle has a great home field. Dallas is due (already) for their choke game where they want to hang Tony Romo afterwards. I guess if I was picking upsets this is it.

Jets at Steelers (Pit Over 6): Jets were a mirage fueled by a crappy Buffalo defense. Pittsburgh may try to murder Tebow if they can.

Titans at Chargers (SD Under 6): SD did not look good. Titans looked ok, just outclassed. I like Tennessee to show up and keep it close.

Lions at 49ers (SF Over 7): Look, I don't know. The smart pick is the over. My heart wants to rebel and say "But the Lions might backdoor cover!" But don't pick on that (Look at last weeks Indy/Chicago pick). I'll pick SF over.

Broncos at Falcons (ATL Under 3): The loss of Brent Grimes hurts bad, and this is not the week to start playing without him. And never ever bet against Peyton Manning on a nationally televised game.

Fantasy: I'm favored in two leagues this week, and a big underdog in one. But I'm pretty sure they've vastly underprojected the Law-Firm and Joe Flacco, who roped me back in.

NFL 12 - Week 1

NFL is back. It's amazing how exciting that becomes, even when it comes back every year. I'm picking strictly against the spread this year, and I'll be getting the spreads from wherever seems convenient. Today's lines are coming from Dave's excellent blog. After the lines, I'll do a couple of season theories and a quick review of my three Fantasy teams.

Dallas at New York - I had NY Over 4. Obviously I already lost this one, but this is a good way to show how a spread works to those that don't know. The line set for this game was NY+4 - meaning you needed to bet either that New York would win by at least that margin or that they wouldn't win by that margin. So, if you bet the over, and Dallas wins or New York only wins by a field goal, then you lose (because the bet went under). Does that make sense? Hopefully. Another thing to note is that if two teams are considered dead even, the home team should be favored by 3.

Colts at Bears - CHI Under 9.5. I like Andrew Luck to come up with a back door cover.

Falcons at Chiefs - ATL Under 3. Hard line, as I'm up on both teams this year. I like the Chiefs to surprise here, as I think their offense might be hard for ATL to handle.

Eagles at Browns - PHI Over 9. Hard to stomach a road team getting 9 points, but God hates Cleveland.

Patriots at Titans - NE Over 6. Lock it up baby! Love New England this year.

Jags at Vikings - MIN Under 4. If you're in an eliminator challenge this week, Minnesota isn't a bad play. How many other times will you get to pick them? I think they win but I'm not giving them that much.

Redskins at Saints - NO Over 7.5. I'm scared of Drew Brees deciding to do a Tom Brady "EFF YOU" season after the Bounty Gate. That's why I bid about $60 on him in my Auction.

Bills at Jets - NYJ Under 3. I hate the Jets so much. This is a hard game, but I'll take the Bills because I can't wait for the Jets to fall apart.

Rams at Lions - DET Over 7.5. Gotta take the home boys. How many touchdowns does Calvin get, and how much of a coming out party is this for Titus Young? Once Finnegan is on Calvin (which won't matter), who's left to cover the fastest guy on the field?

Dolphins at Texans - HOU under 12. Too many points. There's always one team that struggles a bit out of the gate, and I see the Texans winning but getting a bit scared. Let's not forget that the Texans have a history before last year of blowing their first game.

49ers at Packers - GB Over 5. Taking GB; as it's a home game, and I expect a major regression from San Fran.

Seahawks at Cardinals - SEA Under 3. Agree with Dave. Not taking a rookie QB on the road in his first game.

Panthers at Bucs - CAR Under 3. Grantland has been taking about a "plexiglass" principle - teams that bounce dramatically in one direction tend to bounce a bit back towards where they were. Carolina had a +4 win record, Tampa Bay had a -6 win record. I expect them to average out (TB at 7 or 8 wins and CAR at 4 or 5 wins). So I'll take the 'better' team at home.

Steelers at Broncos - DEN Under 1.5. Pittsburgh is really good. And mad about losing last year.

Bengals at Ravens - BAL Over 6. I always give too much respect to Flacco. Also I expect a sophomore slump from Green/Dalton.

Chargers at Raiders - OAK Over 1. Run-DMC isn't hurt yet, and I don't buy the notoriously slow starting Chargers.


A few bold predictions about the season:

At least one of the following teams is overrated and isn't challenging for a playoff spot: Chicago, Buffalo, Seattle.
At least one of the following teams isn't winning their division: Green Bay, New England, Houston.
At least two of these rookies are major disappointments: Russell Wilson, Trent Richardson, Ryan Tannehill.
The following Injury Prone Players play at least 14 games each: Run-DMC, Andre Johnson, Michael Vick.

Fantasy Teams:
In three leagues this year. Here they are and my thoughts:

Go Lions League - Starters: Schaub, Ray Rice, J. Charles, Jordy Nelson, Colston, Jimmy Graham, Green-Ellis, Ryan Succop, and Seahawks D/ST. Bench: McGahee, Kevin Smith, Garcon, Maclin, Little, Blackmon.

I had third pick overall, and I feel real strong about this team. I think I have the best team in this league (definitely top two). I'm weakest at QB, but pretty strong elsewhere. I do have a tendency to draft lots of WR's as opposed to RBs, as we'll see in my other leagues.

TheDream League - Starters: Rodgers, Lloyd, Desean Jackson, Titus Young, Forte, Fred Jackson, Jacob Tamme, Rian Lindell, New England D/ST. Bench: Sidney Rice, Green-Ellis, Deangelo Williams, Malcom Floyd, Jacquizz Rodgers.

I'm annoyed with this team. I was the only player who didn't autodraft, so there were never players that 'fell.' Also, there is no flex spot - it's three WRs. We'll see how it goes.

Seattle Smashers League - Starters: Brees, J. Charles, Bradshaw, Antonio Brown, Lloyd, Tony Gonzalez, Julio Jones, Eagles D/ST, Robbie Gould. Bench: Stevie Johnson, Maclin, Peyton Hillis, Torrey Smith, Isaac Redman, Britt, Ryan Williams.

First ever auction draft. I stuck to nominating players I didn't want to make others spend money (got someone to spend $5 right at the start for a defense!), and had more money at the end of the draft than anyone else. My biggest purchase was Brees at $59 ($200 cap), which was more and earlier than I wanted, but there was a good run on QB's early. Stafford went for $67. Best story: I waited until near the very end to nominate Julio Jones, and got him for $10 because noone had money left. I really enjoyed this style of draft - definitely recommend it. I'm excited for this league.

The Notepocalypse 2.0: Why I'm not Voting and Why You Shouldn't Either

The Notepocalypse 2 – Why I’m Not Voting (and Why You Shouldn’t Either)


Four years ago, I wrote The Notepocalypse. It had two main goals – explain why I was voting for Barack Obama and call out some of the stupidest political drivel I had seen written on Facebook. It proved to be a rather contentious post, attracting hundred of comments.

So here we are, four years later. And it’s time for something else controversial. Because once again, people are posting political drivel on Facebook. It really is the 21st century lawn sign.

I’m not voting this year. Not at all. I’m going to defuse some of the most common arguments, and then I’m going to explain why you shouldn’t vote either.

“If you don’t vote, then you don’t have a right to complain.” Uh, pretty sure I do. That’s freedom of speech, which is a right that I’m given regardless of whether or not I vote. A flip side of it is that if I vote for a candidate who is disappointing, I also shouldn’t complain. That’s also not true. Just because I voted for Obama in 08 doesn’t mean I don’t believe that he could have done better.

”It’s your civic duty.” Another pithy statement that doesn’t really stand up to any scrutiny. I have a right to, not a responsibility to, vote. No one is making me vote, or holding me accountable to vote. And even if it was an actual duty that just means it’s on the level of jury duty – not exactly high praise.

“This candidate honors God the best/supports more ‘Christian’ policies.” For my Christian friends, some of whom seem to have a hard time realizing that all candidates just give lip service to God. I am curious how the evangelical right will spend this election; is it okay to vote for a Mormon? If that’s okay, then why does the candidate need to be Christian at all?

“But Romans/Acts/Some Other Out of Context Verse tells me I should vote.” No they don’t. You are never asked in the Bible to participate in worldly politics, but simply to not disobey unless a law goes against God. Look at Jesus’ example – he didn’t play around with politics, but existed primarily outside of the political definitions of his day. He was appropriately respectful but also distant.

“Democracy doesn’t work if you don’t vote.” Doesn’t seem to be working all that well with the voting either! Bazing!

Okay, so I think those are the most common arguments as to why I should vote (without getting into particular ideologies). Now, here’s a bunch of reasons not to vote:

“My vote does not matter.” It’s pretty simple math. Even in the 2000 election, which came down to 600 votes or something in the state of Florida, a single vote didn’t do anything. This applies triply so if you don’t live in a “swing” state – if you’re not Ohio or Florida, you should probably save yourself the gas on Election Day.

“My vote does not matter, pt 2.” Let’s say hypothetically that your vote from the prior example did matter. You were the one special snowflake that actually decided a presidency. Great! Were you also the special snowflake that decided hundreds of congress/senate seats? How about judicial appointments? You realize that we have a whole “checks and balances” thing, right? It’s pretty clear from Obama’s last term that it’s not that hard to stymie a president legally. So even in the perfect situation – you elected yourself (who better to agree with your viewpoint), it doesn’t matter as much as you think.

“I have no idea who to vote for.” I’m not talking about presidents here, folks. There are dozens of other names/agendas/propositions on the ballot. The last ballot I cast I voted for the assistant county clerk. I have no idea if the person I voted for can handle the job. Either I vote straight party (which is dangerous, as all parties are filled with idiots) or I vote blindly, in which case a monkey could fill out my ballot.

“I only have two choices.” Well, we’ve had democratic and republican presidents in the past. They are pretty much known quantities with different faces now. What are the chances that the things that we have been doing are actually the things to get us out of the messes we’re in? The definition of insanity is, of course, doing the same thing and expecting dissimilar results. If you want to know how Obama’s second campaign will be, look at his first. If you want to know what a Romney presidency will be like, check out the last republican presidency. Until there’s an actual option for a third party, growth and change are hopeless.

“The people who I’m voting for are politicians.” It is their job, after all, to get you to vote for them. History has shown that people have a strong tendency to put their scruples behind them when they think it involves money or power. Has any president lived up to their campaign promises?

“And finally, a word about the founding fathers.” There is a dangerous misconception that because the founding fathers created a country in 1776 we should always follow what they said. Newsflash: 1770 was nearly 250 years ago. They could not have imagined the world we live in now, and the challenges that we face. Let’s all agree that they had some great ideas, but that we aren’t limited to what they said. Case in point: there’s a meme floating around Facebook that says “Let’s use our tax power to force people to do things, said no founding father ever.” That’s great. Here’s a short list of other things that the founding fathers also never said: “Maybe we should just do what the government wants, according to Romans 13.” Or “Is Facebook a good investment?” or “Mission accomplished.” And they definitely never said “Hey, what does that Black guy / Woman / Muslim / anyone but an old-white-dude think?”

Well, that’s a good start for discussion. What do you think? As a fair warning, enter into the discussion calmly and clearheadedly – stupidity will be labeled as such.

Super Bowl

I'm 5-5 throughout the playoffs. One game left.

I'll pick the Patriots. I like Tom Brady and don't like Eli.

Also, I've been listening to too much Bill Simmons. I nearly went online and bet Jake Ballard for the first touchdown (18-1!). But once I start gambling online, it's over.

NFL Championship Weekend

Straight up 4-4 throughout. I missed on what team would lay an egg (although Baltimore came close anyway).

Important thing to remember here: Destiny doesn't exist. The two matchups that the media is dreaming about (Super Bowl 07 rematch; Harbowl) aren't going to happen. This isn't a sports movie that will line up at the last second.

So, seconds before the first game:

I like New England (but not by 9) and I like San Fran (over three).

NFL Divisional Weekend

2-2 Last Week. Lions should have no shame in getting blown out by the Saints.

On to this week...

One home team is blowing it. Let's be honest. That's whats happening. The obvious (and therefore not happening) choices are San Fran and Green Bay. I think San Fran may still lose, but the narrative won't be "sluggish and hurt by the bye." The choice for that narrative will be between Baltimore or New England, which both have a recent history of not showing up at times in the postseason. We'll figure it out shortly!

Saints at 49ers (NO by 4): Overhype alert: New Orleans. No respect for a team that won the bye. I'll take the 49ers. I think if you can rattle Drew Brees in the first half and play good defense in the second half (the Lions were halfway there), you have a good shot. San Fran will slow down the game, and that will frustrate Brees. I like San Fran to win here.

Broncos at Patriots (NE by 14): New England does have our potential blown potential narrative, and when we combine that with possibility of the "miraculous Tim Tebow comeback that in retrospect shouldn't be credited to Tim Tebow but rather to some dumb luck and mistakes by the other team" narrative, we could have a compelling story. However, I just don't see that. It's too obvious. Whenever something is obvious, swing the other way. I like the Patriots here by a mile.

Texans at Ravens (Bal by 9): Here it is. Our sleepy bye team, combined with the team that no one is really giving a shot to win. If you look at all the games, the Texans are probably the eight most popular pick. People are making legitimate cases on both sides of the San Fran/New Orleans and Green Bay / New York games. New England is favored, and Tim Tebow has Tebow magic, so they're probably closer to fifty fifty picks. But really noone is picking the Texans. And so I will. Second games between teams are generally closer, so that's my justification if I need one.

Finally, New York at Green Bay (GB by 9). It's a little too obvious for New York to pull an upset here, and so I will swing for Green Bay to win handily.

A Weird Note I Just Noticed: 5/8 of the teams have two word place names (Green Bay, New York, etc). That's 62.5%. Only 10 of the 32 teams have two word place names (31.2%). I don't know what that means, but it's interesting. Or perhaps just dumb. The only game that pits the two against each other is New England/Denver.

NFL: Wildcard Weekend

I rested my starters the last two weeks. Sorry. That's life.

Anyway, let's look at the playoff matchups.

My playoff picking rules:

1. Momentum Matters.
2. One team is overhyped, one team is underhyped.
3. When in doubt, take the home team. But pick at least one road team.
4. Destiny Exists.
5. One team is kryptonite.

These have served me well the last two years, as I have gone 0-8 in the wildcard round. I'm feeling it this year though, so let's get to the picks.

The Coin Flip Games:

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (Hou by 3)
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (NYG by 3)

A 50/50 bet either way. I wouldn't put money on these games. None of the teams qualify for overhype/underhype; the two teams with positive momentum are playing each other; the two teams with negative momentum are playing each other; and it's too early to identify a kryptonite.

I listened to Aaron Schatz the other day and he said that Atlanta is the most consistent team in the league - you know what you're getting. But New York must be the most inconsistent team (well, maybe the most inconsistent team not named Baltimore). So either good New York (smoked Dallas last week) or bad New York (lost to Washington the week before) shows up. I don't think Atlanta hangs, and I think we see good New York here. I like the Giants +3.

As far as Cincy/Houston, it's a game of two rookie quarterbacks. Anything could happen. And so we refer to rule 3 - when in doubt, take the home team. Houston +3.


The Predicted Blowouts

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (NO by 11)

I'm jumping all over this one and taking Detroit to cover the spread and win the game outright. Fanboy, who cares. Here are the relevant facts:

• Detroit outgained New Orleans four weeks ago, not accounting for penalty yards.


• Detroit was missing three or four key defensive players four weeks ago, and still held New Orleans to it's lowest home point total.


• Matt Stafford was at the very end of his funk four weeks ago, and is now playing out of his mind.


• New Orleans is definitely the most overhyped team coming into round 1. Remember when they blew that stinker to St Louis? This is not the second coming of Touchdown Jesus.

I'm taking Detroit. I'm so confident that I emailed Bill Simmons and told him he was messing with a "Nobody believes in us" team because he was podcasting about whether the weather in San Francisco would mess with New Orleans.

And yes, I may have just doomed my team.

Steelers at Broncos (PIT by 9)

I'm flip flopping on this game. I already have one road team winning, so I don't need to take Pittsburgh. Ultimately, I'm going to take Pittsburgh, unfortunately, and here's why - I can't possibly go 0-4 3 years in a row. But now, if I do, I will have missed on two coin flip games (shrug), on my home team winning, and on Tebow. That' seems defensible for next year.

Go Lions!

NFL Week 15

With the latest Tebow heroics, the Lions have a shot at a playoff game. They have no shot once they're in the playoffs though... Here are the teams that Detroit could potentially face:

Green Bay (Stompgate, part 3)
New Orleans (Who embarassed us on National TV)
San Fran (Handshake Gate redux)
Dallas (remember, the team we pissed off by coming back from 17 points down, or something)
Atlanta (the team that accused us of making fun of their wussy quarterback)

Each one of those teams will relish knocking us out of the playoffs in their stadium.

On to the picks.

week 14 correct picks: Houston, Minnesota, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, San Diego,
week 14 incorrect picks: Pittsburgh, Jets, New England, Denver, San Fran, Green Bay, Dallas, Seattle
week 14: 8-8

overall: 101-96-10

week 15 picks:
Jacksonville vs Atlanta (ATL by 12): Jacksonville gets no respect! 41 points last week, a sneaky good defense, and a suddenly beastly MJD? And ATL doesn't really blow out teams, and they play down to their opponent, and I'll take the Jags here.
Cowboys vs Bucs (Dal by 7): Yikes. This will be a goodbye game for Raheem Morris once Dallas takes out their Sunday Night frustration and beats em by 20.
Dolphins vs Bills (Mia by 2): I'm going to take Buffalo here. Home dog playing a team that just fired their head coach.
Seahawks vs Bears (Chi by 4): I will take back every mean thing I said about you Pete Carroll if you can beat the Bears this week. I'll take Seattle and maybe actually watch this game.
Titans vs Colts (Ten by 7): Can't pick the Colts.
Packers at Chiefs (GB by 14): Green Bay dismantles inferior teams. I turned off the Oakland game last week because it was boring. This will be the same.
Bengals at Rams (Cin by 7): I hadn't even seen the line before I was typing "take Cincy."
Saints vs Vikings (NO by 7): I think New Orleans is going to win. I think we're on the road to a rematch of the first game of the season - New Orleans and Green Bay. Won't get any better than that.
Redskins vs Giants (NYG by 7): My secret hope? That Dallas and New York lose out, and Philadelphia somehow gets the NFC East title. I don't think it happens, but it would be fun. New York should win this game.
Panthers vs Texans (Hou by 7): The king of the back door cover may rear his head this week. I'll take Carolina.
Lions vs Raiders (Det by 2): Is McFadden still out? Probably not, since he's already cost me two fantasy leagues. I was going to hedge here, but Carson Palmer is TERRIBLE. The Lions should win. They better win.
Patriots vs Broncos (NE by 7): Here's the thing: Tebow can score a few. He put up 35 on Minnesota, right? And NE has a pretty bad secondary, right? And ultimately, if the game is within 7 at the end, Tebow is going to win, right? I'm gonna take Tebow as my upset.
Jets vs Eagles (Phi by 3): Jets are in their infuriating end of the season run, and Philadelphia just won a game they weren't supposed to. I'll take the Jets here.
Browns vs Cardinals (Ari by 7): Thats a high line for a team that won it's last two by an average of 1.5. I'll take Cleveland to keep it close.
Ravens at Chargers (Bal by 1): A curiously low line. I think Baltimore wants to win and stay in the drivers seat for their division, and I'm also thinking we're one monster loss away from the end of the Norv Turner Era. I'll take Baltimore.
Steelers at 49ers (SF by 3): Oh god. Pittsburgh wins this game and suddenly San Fran will be the 3 seed... Playing the 6 seed in round one... Are you ready to see the handshake 4000 times?

Fantasy:
I just missed the playoffs in both Go Lions and CRISTAball. Ultimately, McFadden being out and not having a solid QB cost me CRISTAball, and Go Lions was lost because Dave couldn't beat Crazy Keith in the last week. That hurts, Dave.

I'm in the playoffs in the Emerald City Eight, and have a couple of dilemmas. Here are my four running backs:

Rashard Mendenhall (playing San Fran, 1st against run)
Chris Johnson (Playing Indy, 30th against run)
MJD (playing Atl, 6th against run)
AP (playing NO, 20th against run, and coming back from injury).

My three receivers:
Vincent Jackson
Marques Colston
Julio Jones

Pick 3 from the first and 2 from the second...

(oh, and I'm playing Gonzalez over Gates this week).

NFL Quick Picks

quickly now:

week 13 correct: Seattle, Titans, Chiefs (Upset), Miami, Denver, Pittsburgh, Jets (lock), Texans, Baltimore, San Fran, New Orleans, San Diego

Week 13 incorrect: New England, Tampa, Green Bay, Dallas,

Week 13: 12-4

overall: 93-88-10

I'll take a hit for the Pittsburgh game; I don't know what I would have taken so it's a loss.

I like:

Texans - 3: TJ Yates... not bad!

Detroit -10: Don't think Detroit blows em out, but still get the win.

Saints +4: Not buying Ten anymore.

Eagles -3: I'm selling Miami, as they are going really high right now.

Jets -11: Don't think Sanchez has it in him to blow them out.

Patriots +9: I'll lock this guy down!

Falcons +3: As many touchdowns as will be in this game, it won't come down to three points, and I think that favors Atl.

Jacksonville -3: Dumb game, dumb teams. Take the Jags as an upset.

Ravens -17: Uh, why would I pick the team that has a history of playing down to their opponents to win by 17?

Denver +4: Tebow!

SF +5: That's basically free money, right? (I'm not taking a page out of Bill Simmons book and trying to curse San Fran, trust me I'm not!).

GB -13: I think they win here, but it's not going to be a blowout. This is probably the trickiest game for GB - two weeks in a row of games they could have lost, followed by a game they should win... Something smells funny.

SD +7: I think Buffalo might be done. And San Diego is trying for that patented "just when you thought we were out, Oakland and Denver lose this weekend and we are suddenly only one game back..."

Dal +3: No idea why. Home team I guess.

Seahawks -10: Don't think Seattle has a blowout in them.

Week 13 Picks

Week 11 Record: 5-9

Week 12 Record: 7-3-5 (I meant to take New Orleans).

Overall Record: 81-84-10

Week 13 Picks:
Eagles at Seahawks (Phi by 3): Qwest over Young. (That means I pick Seattle).
Titans at Bills (Buf by 3): I'm taking Ten here, because they have something to play for.
Chiefs at Bears (Chi by 7): I can't pick Hanie to win by 7! I'll take the Chiefs as an upset.
Raiders at Dolphins (Mia by 3): Miami is frisky, and I'll take them here. Oakland is about due for a loss.
Broncos at Vikings (Min by 1): How can you pick against Tebow right now? Especially without AP?
Colts at Patriots (NE by 21): When does Brady get pulled? Second quarter, right? That should be enough to get 24 points, which should cover the line.
Bengals at Steelers (Pit by 7)
Panthers at Buccaneers (TB by 3): Tampa, I would hope. I think. I dont know.
Jets at Redskins (NYJ by 3): I will take the Jets as a lock. Don't look now, but we're headed for another 6th seed for the Jets, who will then win two games and get blown out in an AFC championship.
Falcons at Texans (ATL by 3): Go TJ Yates! I'll pick Houston - the home dog.
Ravens at Browns (Bal by 7): Someone said this on a podcast the other day: it's not a trap game when it's every other game. I'll take Baltimore.
Packers at Giants (GB by 7): Intrigueing to look at the Giants. But I hear they have some injuries, so I'll take the Packers. But the Giants have a tendency to win games you don't expect.
Cowboys at Cardinals (Dal by 5): Dallas? I guess?
Rams at 49ers (SF by 14): I'm never picking the Rams again.
Lions at Saints (NO by 9): Big game for the Lions. They need to go 3-2 to make the playoffs. Minnesota is probably a win, SD certainly looks doable. So we need to either pick up a game here, at Oakland, or at Green Bay (week 17). If New York could pull off an upset this week, then Detroit probably takes week 17. I dont think Detroit wins this week, but I think we might still limp into the playoffs.
Chargers at Jaguars (SD by 3): Wow, SD has quit, hasn't they? But Del Rio got fired, so SD will win this one.

Fantasy Records:
Emerald City Eight: 7-5 for 3rd place. Should make the playoffs (Which I guess are in week 15 in this league?

Cristaball: 6-4 for 4th place in my division, currently. I need a win and two people to lose, and I might still not make it based on the tiebreakers. I think the playoffs start week 14 and are two weeks a round? What a weird league.

Go Lions: 7-5 for third place. I have a rough game this week, but I'm also hopeful 4th place will lose to Dave. I seem to be in good position for the playoffs, which are week 15.

Week 12 quick picks

Thanksgiving blah busy blah here are the picks blah blah oh god the quick picks:

I took Detroit, Dallas, Baltimore. 1-2 so far.

Falcons +10

Bengals +7

Ten +3

Indy -4

Rams +3

Bills -10 (upset)

Texans +7 (lock)

Raiders +3

Seahawks +3

Eagles -4

Broncos -6

Chiefs -11

Week 11: Congratulations

Major congratulations to my good friend Dave, with the birth of his daughter Emaline this last week. Not that Dave birthed Emaline (as far as I know, that was Allison). Readers may know that I recently beat Dave soundly in fantasy football (121.12-121.06), so I'm glad he's able to have some sun in his life.

Week 10 Correct Picks: New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Dallas, Tennessee, Seattle, Chicago (I intended to pick them but did not write it, and I'm taking the credit), Patriots,
Week 10 Incorrect Picks: San Diego, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Washington, New York Giants (Lock 4-5-1), Philadephia, Buccaneers (Upset 5-5), Vikings

Week 10 Record: 7-9
Record Thus Far: 69-70-7 (Ah, below .500!)

Week 11 Picks
Jets at Broncos (NYJ by 7): It's either NY by 30, or Denver by 1. So I'm unsure. I had to pick up Sanchez and Burress in one league, so I'm gonna imagine it's NYJ by 30.
Jaguars at Browns (Jac by 1): Can Cleveland score touchdowns? I'm not sure. I like Jacksonville here, as I don't think Cleveland will get over 6 points.
Panthers at Lions (Det by 7): I'm pretty sure that Detroit will blow out the Panthers this week to set up the game against Green Bay on Thanksgiving. And I'm pretty sure the league will make sure that the narrative for Thanksgiving is the 7-3 Lions versus the 10-0 Packers rather than the Packers Versus the Lions-who-have-lost-4-of-their-last-5.
Buccanneers at Packers (GB by 14): Jeez, is GB gonna get double digit points every week? I have to take them here too.
Bills at Dolphins (Mia by 1): I like Buffalo. Everyones a little too quick on the Miami bandwagon.
Raiders at Vikings (Oak by 1): I have no idea. I guess I'll pick Oakland.
Cowboys at Redskins (Dal by 8): I tried to talk myself into Washington here, but I'm gonna pick Dallas. There's a more sane upset pick later in the round.
Bengals at Ravens (Bal by 8): Ravens. They play good against good teams.
Seahawks at Rams (STL by 2): Don't pick NFC West teams on the road! St Louis. Lock!
Cardinals at 49ers (SF by 10): I don't like SF by 10 over anyone - they just don't blow teams out. I'll take Arizona as an upset - only because I think the final game will be deceptively close.
Titans at Falcons (Atl by 7): Titans could sneak back into the AFC South if Leinart blows up Houston. I think I'll take Ten here, at least to keep it close.
Chargers at Bears (Chi by 4): If I rewrote my bias rankings, I would absolutely rank Chicago 32. (Edit: I did already). I hate them. And to see everyone jump on their bandwagon as the third best team in the NFC - it's ridiculous. Let's compare the wins/losses for Detroit/Chicago. They split their series, so Chicago has losses to New Orleans and Green Bay. Detroit has losses to San Francisco and Atlanta. These teams are even - even down to the brittle quarterback under a lost of criticism. Chicago runs, Detroit throws. The bottom line? Screw Chicago. I'll take San Diego.
Eagles at Giants (NYG by 4): I can't really pick against New York, and I can't pick Philadelphia anymore.
Chiefs at Patriots (NE by 15): New England. Don't be silly.

Week 10: The Carnage of the Quick Picks

Note to self: never make quick picks again. I went a stunning 3-11 this week, the highlight of which was missing on each and every early game. Clearly I need to actually put thought into the picks.

Week 9 Correct Picks: Denver, Giants, Baltimore,
Week 9 Incorrect Picks: Bills, Cowboys, Colts (Upset 5-4), Chiefs, Bucs, Redskins, Cleveland, Titans, Rams, Chargers, Eagles

Week 9 Record: 3-11
Overall: 62-61-7

Week 10 Picks
Raiders at Chargers (SD by 7): No McFadden, and the Chargers finally started to look like a good team last week. It was like they clicked into gear or something. I'll take San Diego here.
Saints at Falcons (NO by 1): I wrote off Atlanta earlier this year, and I'm not quite ready to pencil them back into being real yet. So I'll take NO.
Steelers at Bengals (Pit by 3): Hard to know what to make of the Bengals. Ultimately, I think they are a schedule fraud, and I'll take Pittsburgh.
Rams at Browns (Cle by 3): I desperately want to pick against Cleveland, but the safe money is to not bet on NFC west teams that don't rhyme with "Fan Trancisco." So I'll pick Cleveland...
Bills at Cowboys (Dal by 6): I like Dallas to bounce back here and shut down Fred Jackson, so I'll take Dallas.
Jaguars at Colts (Jac by 3): Indy has some breathing room in the Luck sweepstakes now; so all they have to do is not screw up and win here. I do predict a close game though, so I'll pick Indy.
Broncos at Chiefs (KC by 4): Weird game. Not sure what to think. Will take KC; Arrowhead should rattle Tebow much like Ford Field did.
Redskins at Dolphins (Mia by 4): Unsure of either of these teams. So in that case, I'll guess Washington keeps it close?
Cardinals at Eagles (No line): No line (Kolb?), but I'll take Philly.
Texans at Bucs (Hou by 4): I'm so uneasy about supporting Houston. They're a good team with deep flaws that will crumble when they meet any of the AFC powerhouses in the playoffs. I'm gonna take the Bucs as my Upset.
Titans at Panthers (Car by 4): I like CJ to finally get out of his funk here, and for Ten to win.
Ravens at Seahawks (Bal by 7): Quest stadium trap game. I'll take the Seahawks.
Lions at Bears (Chi by 3):
Giants at 49ers (SF by 3): If the NYG win this game, they get to be Number 2 in everyone's power rankings, right? I think the Giants will finally unnerve Alex Smith, and I'll Lock it in.
Patriots at Jets (NYJ by 1): Great game, great rivalry. Strangely, Rex Ryan has been silent(!) this week. I'll be taking the Patriots, as I'm not ready to believe Belichick and Brady will lose 3 straight grudge matches.
Vikings at Packers (GB by 14): Can't pick against GB, but 14 points is awfully high... And haven't the Vikes been playing well? Aw, I'll take the Vikes.

Fantasy Review
I can retire happy in Fantasy Football now. No, I haven't won a league yet. But I did beat my good friend who knows way more about football than me... Dave Morgan. Final Score? 121.12 to 121.06. I beat Dave by 6/10ths of a yard. Stunning.

Week 9: Quick Picks

Week 8 Correct Picks: Titans, Miami (Upset 5-3), Buffalo, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Philly,
Week 8 Correct Picks: New Orleans, Minnesota, Ravens (Lock 4-4-1), San Francisco, Cincinnati, Chiefs
Week 8 Push: Houston

Week 8 Review: 6-6-1
Year Thus Far: 59-50-7

Week 9 Picks:
Bills +2
Dallas +12
Colts -8 (Upset)
Chiefs +5
Bucs -9
Washington -4
Cleveland -11
Titans +3
Denver -9
Giants -9
Rams -2
Chargers -6
Bal -4
Eagles +8

I may have my plusses and minuses mixed up, but those are my picks.

Fantasy:
Still doing well, but I have another big divisional game against Dave this week, and I just traded my mvp - McFadden. Picked up Mendenhall and a good backup QB in Matt Schaub.

Week 8: SeeSawing through the picks

Prepare for a week of seesaw games. Good teams lost bad, and bad teams lost bad, and thus some of these lines may be jacked.

Week 7 Correct Picks: Atlanta, Denver, Carolina, Pittsburgh (Lock 4-2-1), Minnesota, New Orleans,
Week 7 Incorrect Picks: Tennesee, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Oakland, St Louis (Upset 4-3), Baltimore
Week 7 Push: Cleveland

Week 7 Record: 6-6-1
Record Thus Far: 53-44-6

Week 8 Picks
Colts at Titans (Ten by 9): Two teams that were embarassed last week, but only one that can do something about it. I'll take Tennessee.
Saints at Rams (NO by 14): Sean Payton is a classy guy. After going ahead by 40 points, the Saints just ran, no passes. They weren't trying to run up the score. But, I'll stick with New Orleans again.
Dolphins at Giants (NYG by 10): This is a classic "did we learn anything" game. The Giants are favored at home by 10 to a crappy team. Just like Seattle two weeks ago. And I'm no sucker, so I'll take Miami as my upset. Geez...
Vikings at Panthers (Car by 4): I liked Ponder last week, but I think he'll regress a little here and Carolina will win.
Cardinals at Ravens (Bal by 13): Angry hornets. Thats what I imagine the defense of Baltimore will be like this week. I don't imagine that Cardinals will get points, so I will take Baltimore as the lock. As a side note, here's what I wrote about Bal/Jac:
"This feels like a classic Flacco crap game, doesn't it? Don't they always have one or two losses that leave everyone scratching their head and wondering what the heck happened? But even then... I'm not brave enough to pick it, so I'll take Baltimore."
Jaguars at Texans (Hou by 10): Chicken and the egg: was Jacksonville's defense that good, or was Baltimore's offense that bad? I think it was mostly Baltimores offense, and I think Houston will win here, and by 10.
Redskins at Bills (Buf by 6): I'm off the Washington train. Bills!
Lions at Broncos (Lions by 3): For the first time here, I will pick the Lions. I don't think Tebow will do well against the Lions defense.
Patriots at Steelers (Pats by 3): The Patriots always win against the Steelers, but I don't like them here. I think if they win it will be by a little, so I'll take Pittsburgh.
Browns at 49ers (SF by 9): I watched a ton of that Cleveland/Seattle game because I'm a sadist. I think SF wins here, but I'm concerned that this will be a crappy Alex Smith game, so I'm not giving them 9 points.
Bengals at Seahawks (Cin by 3): I'll pick Seattle (shudder). It's a home game, and that's a 5 point swing in favor of Seattle.
Cowboys at Eagles (Phi by 4): Tough game to pick. I think I'll take Philadelphia (home team).
Chargers at Chiefs (SD by 4): There's still a lot of talk about Kansas City winning this game outright and taking a share of the division lead. I don't think so. San Diego is better than they've been trending, and Kansas City isn't as good as they've been trending. I'll take SD.

Fantasy Review
Go Lions: I scored 64 points last week... and won. Going into Monday Night, I was ahead by 6 points with no players left, and my opponent had Ray Rice left. I was ecstatic about the Baltimore loss. Currently, my record is 5-2 which is second in the Barry Sanders division.
Emerald City Eight: Won my last game, for a record of 4-3. I'm in fourth place.
CRISTABall: Lost badly, for a record of 4-2. I'm third in my division, but both people ahead of me have played one more divisional games.

Week 7: The Curse of Bobby Layne gives way to the Curse of....

Bobby Layne once famously cursed Detroit to fifty years without winning a Superbowl. That curse culminated in the 0-16 season exactly 50 years later (and no Superbowls). The Lions are now (theoretically) free of that curse... But I wonder if we aren't suffering from another, unknown curse. The Curse of... Barry Sanders.

What? The Detroit hero? The most famous Lion of all time? One of top three running backs of all time?

Yeah. Him. Since Barry unceremoniously retired after the 98 season, the Lions have had the worst run imaginable of runningbacks. I did a little statistical research (crazy, I know). Here's the summary:

• Since 98 (where Barry finished 4th), the highest a Detroit running back has finished in yards gained is 14th, by James Stewart in 2000.


• Since 98, our leading rusher has been on average the 27th best rusher (26.5 to be exact).

I don't think the blame can be entirely on the offensive line, either. We've had some success in passing - Jon Kitna, for crying out loud - but never anything in the running game. Additionally, we have been drafting so high for a few years that I'm willing to bet that any of the top 10 runningbacks this year went behind our other draft picks. Detroit just doesn't do well with runningbacks any more.

And now we find out that Jahvid Best may be done for the year and we have traded for... Ronnie Brown. He of the goal line fumble a few weeks ago against San Fran.

Somehow I don't expect the curse to break anytime soon. Are we to expect 50 years of futility on the ground?

Week 6 Correct Picks: Bengals, 49ers, Packers, Eagles, Bucs (Upset: 4-2), Jets

Week 6 Incorrect Picks: Panthers, Steelers, Ravens, Patriots, Minnesota

Week 6 Push: Giants, Raiders (Lock: 3-2-1). I count the NYG pick as a moral victory.
Week 6 Record: 6-5-2
Record Thus Far: 47-38-5

Week 7 Picks
Seahawks at Browns (Cle by 3): Never pick the seahawks on the road.
Falcons at Lions (Det by 4): My streak was broken (It's my fault; I forgot to wear my lucky red wings hat), so I'm no longer constrained to picking against Detroit. However, I still have a bad feeling about this matchup and will take Atl.
Texans at Titans (Ten by 3): I believe in Matt Hasselbeck... Uh, what? Eh, he's my quarterback this week in one league (wait til you hear who my other quarterback is!). I think Tennessee handles this and vaults into the front running for the AFC South.
Broncos at Dolphins (Mia by 2): The first Suck-for-Luck game. Tebow isn't going to give up, but Miami is actively going to. I'll take Denver.
Chargers at Jets (SD by 2): At New York, huh. I don't know what to make of these two teams. New York (and Sanchez) have looked horrible. But San Diego and Philips have not been outstanding. I guess I'll take San Diego here.
Bears at Buccaneers (Chi by 1): Um, totally ridiculous line. I like Tampa Here.
Redskins at Panthers (Car by 3): John Beck alert! Time to bench your Santana Moss's (why were you playing him anyway?) and start anyone else. I'll take Carolina even if Cam let me down last week.
Chiefs at Raiders (Oak by 4): I like the Raiders this year. I don't have any idea what Palmer will do for them; but I do know that he's going to give it to McFadden 40 times this game, and that should be good enough to beat the Chiefs by a lot. I would lock this game, but I did that with Oakland last week, so I'll pick a different team.
Steelers at Cardinals (Pit by 4): Ooh, here's a good Lock. Pittsburgh, and do we see a Kevin Kolb benching? I think maybe we do!
Rams at Cowboys (Dal by 13): I don't like Dallas to beat anyone by 13, so I guess St Louis is my Upset. Wait, what? They're an NFC west team... But I'm going to stick with it.
Packers at Vikings (GB by 9): It's at Minnesota and I think it will be close. I'll take Minnesota.
Colts at Saints (NO by 14): The other Suck-For-Luck team is Indy. I think Indy will be better at hiding it than Miami (to avoid the inevitable crapstorm that will brew), but I still think they get blown out here by an angry New Orleans team.
Ravens at Jaguars (Bal by 8): This feels like a classic Flacco crap game, doesn't it? Don't they always have one or two losses that leave everyone scratching their head and wondering what the heck happened? But even then... I'm not brave enough to pick it, so I'll take Baltimore.

Fantasy Review
Went 2-0 this past weekend. The big news of the week? Eli Manning is on a bye for my CRISTABall league, so I went to the waiver wire.

And yes. I picked him up.

Go Tim Tebow.