NFL: 2011 Divisional Round

So I went 0-4 in wildcard picking. I'm not prepared to panic yet - I did start 0-4 last year as well, and ended up with a winning record (6-5). I did go 1-3 against the spread.

The wildcard weekend was two coinflip games (GB/PHI and NY/IND) and two classic "85%" games. The 85% games are when 85% of the public picks the same team to win - in this case New Orleans and Baltimore. Can't say anything about the coinflip games; I just plain got those wrong (Thanks Jim Caldwell for that timeout! Thanks Vick for that interception! Jeez). But I did smell something funny in those 85% games and just picked the wrong one.

That's my excuse anyway. Let's look at the divisional round:

Ravens at Steelers (Pitt by 3)

Everyone's talking about how this game will end with one team winning by three points exactly. I don't think so. Just a hunch, but I'm thinking Pittsburgh by 6. I didn't feel too good about the Ravens in that KC game - KC just imploded. Flacco started to get rattled, which he has a tendency to do. The X-Factor, in my mind, is Ed Reed. Will he be distracted by his missing brother, or will it become one of those crazy games we hear about years later (like the game Favre played after his dad died?).

I'm thinking Pittsburgh 20, Baltimore 14.

Jets at Patriots (Patriots by 8.5)

The Patriots totally have that icy silence right now. They're totally just letting Rex Ryan (and Cromartie, etc) stick their foots (heh) in their mouths. Here's one thing I know: you can beat Tom Brady in close games. But you can't play a close game if Brady stone cold hates you.

Patriots 35, Jets 10.

Packers at Atlanta (Atlanta by 2)

An insulting line to Atlanta. Green Bay didn't play a magnificent game last week, but it was still pretty high profile, because it was against Michael Vick. I'm sticking with Atlanta - home team advantage.

Atlanta 23, Packers 17.

Seahawks at Chicago (Chicago by 10)

Too many weird things about this game. Let's look:

1. Seattle and the "nobody believed in us" factor.
2. Chicago hasn't scored a touchdown since December 26th.
3. Chicago is undoubtedly the luckiest number 2 seed ever.
4. Seattle knows they can beat Chicago at Chicago.
5. Chicago wants a bit of revenge.
6. Jay Cutler has never played in a playoff game, college or pro.
7. Two weeks in a row Seattle being double digit underdogs plays into Pete Carroll's coaching style.
8. Chicago was perhaps the one team that least needed a bye to rest.
9. Seattle has become the single greatest crappy "What If" team in recent history. Think of all the questions you can ask - could Seattle be 10 point underdogs throughout the rest of the playoffs? What if they won everything despite the opposing teams being favored by a total of 45 points? What if it's Seattle vs New England (Carroll homecoming)? Seattle vs Pittsburgh (Refpocalypse)? What if...?
10. I dreamt that Chicago would win by two points.

So bottom line, I have no idea. I do believe that either this game or the NE/NY game will be close, so I'm sticking with this one to be the close game. And who am I to argue with dreams? I'll take Chicago.

Chicago 14, Seattle 12. That seems like the most likely two point victory, right? Unless we're talking Chicago 30, Seattle 28. Either way.